Discussion - Member to Member Sales - Research Center
Discussion - Member to Member Sales - Research Center
With stamps selling for far lower than catalogue value, what does catalogue value in fact represent?
Regards
Richmond
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Anywhere from 5 per cent to several hundred percent depending on centering and condition.
Stamps with multiple faults and or missing corners bring very small percentage of catalog and stamps with large equal margins and no faults regularly trade for more than catalog value.
A sound stamp grading Fine (or the low end of FVF) would normally bring around a third of catalog value (20 to 40 percent). A true FVF stamp would bring around half catalog value (say 40 to 60 percent). A VF stamp perhaps two-thirds (say 60 to 75 percent). Exceptional stemps depends on the buyer - I have sold common never hinged WF issues with large even margins to dealers for over $5 each - catalog value is under a dollar (or was at the time).
Things like freshness, desirability of country, topic, venue, etc all play a role .I can sell items cheaper on SOR than on Bidstart or Ebay because overhead is a lot lower
I am sure there will be many who disagree - it will be an interesting discussion.
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I question where the catalogue price data that supposedly supports the prices. If the USPS issues a new US stamp today for 1.00. Scott will list is as $2. The net is a $14.95 express mail stamp does not cost $14.95 markup when a 3 cent stamp lists for 25 cents in Scott (minimum value). When I see a dealer price all his stock at Scott values then I know the dealer is not setting the price to market.
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I was curious about this, and I did a narrow study of catalog prices of some Europa stamps I collect, some year back, comparing the prices, and price changes for identical stamps over 5-10 years. (Scott) I even plotted them!
All prices of all stamps changed annually. The stamp price increases (seldom decreases) were small but not evenly across a series, and were seemingly random...but they clearly reflected a computer program that made them vary year to year, rather than remain unchanged (and therefore why would you buy a new catalog?).
I tried to reconstruct the algorism, but did not have the patience, so I am guessing that Scott does not re-evaluate stamps annually, as they pretend, but has written a piece of software to make them change slightly. I think they do take an occasional in depth look at a few countries which has shown quite a large Market change (think China, more recently). But with ebay establishing what seems to be a market benchmark for most common stamps, you would think that Catalog printers would recalibrate based on real market data....nooooooo, it would just wreck the market!
I think that excluding the cost of labor, storage, catalog etc... most stamps (but not the rarer or more unique ones) seldom bring more than 50% of Catalog.
When I bid, on ebay or elsewhere, my aim is to not exceed 25%. You loose some, but then a few weeks later, you get them.
In summary (my opinion)
Price changes annually in Catalogs are in my view a scam, intended to sell new catalogs. Just use the catalog price as a general guideline. When the catalog says 35c...it really means somewhere between 15c and 35c, and look at condition and availability. If hundreds are on sale, aim really low. If only one is on sale at any one time...you may want to pay full price or more to secure it. Now if I think Catalog price variation year to year is a scam...don't ask me about "professionally graded" stamps...or Michaelxxx may censor my language here!
I laugh when I see pricing in stores or auctions of say a $0.70c catalog priced stamps listed at 1/3 of catalog...exactly $0.23...really...not $0.20 or $0.25..but $0.23! They rounded it to the nearest penny! And the seller refuses a best offer! Can anyone explain to me how a common stamp (check Hipstamp for example) can be offered at all possible prices from $0.10 to $0.70 by various dealers, simultaneously? Does anyone look at their competition, and how many items are listed at any one time?
Most common stamps are worth virtually nothing (I commonly give them a market value of less than $0.05). What you pay for is the overhead, labor, storage, listing, filing and retrieving costs of these colorful little worthless pieces of paper...that we still love to collect.
For the averagely rarer items, I personally would not pay more than 1/3 of catalog, and I rarely do...but there are exceptions.
For the exceptionally rare stamp (not always the most expensive ones too)....pay whatever you want and can afford to pay, to get the stamp when you see it, if you want it, as it may be years (if ever) before you see it again. You will also see prices of the more valuable ones steadily rising over time!
I still miss a few I should have bought years ago....but have not encountered ever since...and some catalogued for a mere $0.20! Example: I have some Argentina Official Agencies stamps minimally priced (in Scott) that I just cannot find. I would gladly pay 200% of their catalog value, or more, just to get them and complete my page! No luck! And at such a low catalog price, no one wants to bother to list them.
And for that $100 stamp I decided to wait out, cheaply,..it is now listed at $500!...darn! So pay what you must for some you just must get to complete a collection, or an album page.
rrr...
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Richmond,
it depends.....
that typically starts all answers to subjective questions (even where Ralph's scientific algorhythms might come into play).
The quality of the stamp plays a part; rarity plays a more important part; and demand the most important part.
If Scott values the Army issue of 1945 at 25c for a used single, but you can buy a sheet of 50 MNH copies for 75c, one can see that catalogues might lead one astray.
David
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I expect all stamps of European countries to drop in the near future, in the Scott Catalog listing, reflecting the devaluation of the Euro and British Pound against the US Dollar. I expect that a computer program will be used to randomize the changes across the various stamps, rather than apply, as I would, a standard percentage which reflects the currency changes.
The more confusing it is, the better it should be (for selling Catalogs)?
Except for the very latest stamps issued, does anyone really believe there is a need for a full reprint of the annual (now 12 volume) Scott Catalog?
I was hoping that Scott would simply issue a yearly supplement for the new stamps, and a periodic (every 5 years?) update of their full catalog.
And then some on-going annual selective updates, available on-line by subscription, just to the areas they have truly re-evaluated! Instead, they are sticking to their old formula, and feeding us lots of rather meaningless updated numbers!
rrr....
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Thank you, these responses have been very illuminating.
Regards
Richmond
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I'm not sure anyone mentioned this above, but consider looking at completed sales at popular auction sites for the stamp in question. By popular action sites I really primarily Ebay to start with, but there are others you can use that will probably have higher quality. Use the Advanced Search feature on Ebay. However, be aware that the condition of the stamp makes a big difference to the value. You might find the Ebay completed sales for say a US #1 and #2 might contain a lot of poor condition stamps, whereas completed auctions at auction houses (e.g. Harmer Schau etc.) might show stamps in better condition, so you can't simply go by price. Condition is everything in evaluating what to pay for a stamp, so keep that in mind.
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Rrraphy,
Scott does not use an algorithm or formula for increasing pricing, they do not use a database. At best they would have to use a text tool like ‘Find and Replace’ to do any kind of batch updating to the catalog values. Due to the manual process and intense amount of man hours required, I think that they struggle just to try to keep up with the higher value stamps selling at major auctions.
In terms of catalog values, most stamps are worth exactly the same today as they were in 1940 (adjusted for inflation).
Lastly, all catalog publishers want to sell catalogs. It is doubtful that they would sell more catalogs if they published declining catalog values every year over an extended time. Of course they have to deal with some decreases but I am sure there is some internal pressure to show catalog value increases year in and year out.
Don
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I am still waiting for Scott to raise the minimum value due to ebay and paypal fees! Remember when Scott re-valued everything in 1988?
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The big changes in values for Europa stamps was actually part of a stamp investment pyramid scheme perpetrated out of Spain involving Forum Filatélico and Afinsa.
Scott listed the rapidly changing values of Europa stamps in italics to indicate an unstable market. Since the fraud was exposed in 2006, Scott values have been dropping, or returned to "normal" since then.
Linns reported on this in 2006:
Stamp Investment Fraud
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I agree about Europa's pricing situation Michael...but when I looked at these prices, they were actually fairly stable and just inching up and it was before the scandal broke., and Europa tanked....and it is just as an example...I bet you it is the same for other stamps.
I looked at history from successive yearly issue of Scott, trying to understand how and why all prices seem to change from one year to another, in a non systematic way, as if some smart analyst had actually measured accurately every price and entered a new researched number....when it was clearly just a (not so) clever piece of software tweaking them.
It made me doubt that ANY scott value had any real backing behind it, and they could all be taken as negotiable, no real exact value, except to the agenda of the publisher.
As you know, I only give catalog value a superficial significance as a guideline for pricing within a range...minimum valued stamps (available in millions) priced today at 25c...and worth much less, slightly less widely circulated (but still in the millions) valued 25c-$1.00...wort typically 20% of Cats, and then the more valuable ones $1.00 to $2.00, $2.00 to 5.00 etc...to be examined more closely for valuation, depending on how many are out there for sale at any one time.
This is how I price in Approvals (plus a penny or so extra, for additional work I may put, writing in cat #s, organizing sequentially etc...), The reference catalog value is a pricing-bracket guideline..(And it is from whatever my latest catalog is on my bookshelf...currently 2013).
In the US, you can still use any old Mint stamp issued by the Post Office (so it retains a de facto facial value..although you can buy them discounted, as so many are around!). Not so, in most foreign countries, and older Mint stamps in currencies no longer in use have dropped well below their facial value..and facial value has lost any meaning for older stamps, not to also discount the impact of inflation and exchanges.
Still I think, there is a lots of rubbish in the pricing in Catalogs relative to reality! Please do not take a catalog value as a absolute meaningful price!
rrr...
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In view of the total number of world stamps issued and without taking into account the variations, the sheer immensity of Scott having to ask and obtain the sales figures from a huge number of dealers and websites, then have the staff to collate and update such information puts it beyond reason that it is actually done for the vast majority of stamps.
How many dealers have actually the time and staff or even resources to complete a form listing prices of all stamps sold. Maybe David can answer whether his shop has ever had an enquiry.
Just feel, like rrraphy, that it is a machine decision or a human directive to a computer, mind you if they did have to employ sufficient staff it could totally wipe out unemployment.
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"In the US, you can still use any old Mint stamp issued by the Post Office"
Only stamps (postage and air mail) issued after 1862 are valid for postage. (I just used a 2 cent Columbian. The clerks in my post office went goo goo ga ga over it, and talked about it for days. I have another 2 cent Columbian I'll be using soon.)
"Still I think, there is a lots of rubbish in the pricing in Catalogs relative to reality! Please do not take a catalog value as a absolute meaningful price!"
100% correct. Look at the Scott catalogs as a good example. The current edition of the catalogs is 2018. Volume 1 was issued in April 2017. There is about a four to six month deadline prior to publication to stop all updates so that the catalog can be checked for errors and final preparation for printing. They do add new issues up through the April 2017 Linn's Monthly issue, however. Still, that means that the values for the older stamps were finalized for publication in Volume 1 around December 2016 for a 2018 catalog! The values are grossly out of date even before the catalog is printed.
The April 2017 Linns Monthly contains the last group of new issues to be added to the catalog (remember that there is a two month lag-time for publication of the Linns Monthly. With a few exceptions, the new issues in that issue are from 2014-2016. Even the stamp listings are behind. It would be more correct to call the latest edition of the Scott Catalogs the 2016 edition, since most of the newest stamps, and the values contained in the catalog are from 2016.
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Back when I was a youngster, probably around 13 in the 7th decade of the last century, I was happily adding up my fortune by looking every stamp I had and writing down the catalog value. My stamps were those we'd consider essentially worthless. Lots of used US definitives that we would have in the hundreds, etc. When my father got home I gleefully showed him the total and that I was well on my way to being a millionaire.
That was when he explained to me the concept of supply and demand. Essentially, a stamp was only worth what someone would pay me for it. I wasn't pleased and went out to disprove his theory. I took some of my duplicates and tried to sell them to my friends at that magic book value. No dice! He had burst my bubble!
Today, with most US stamps after 1940 worth face value or less, instead of Scott giving every used stamp a value of a quarter, they should just notate EHH!
Personally I'm happy that the stamp market is in the toilet. It's allowed me to buy all the stamps of my youth at rock bottom prices! If that kid of 1970 could see my collection today!
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What % of catalogue value do you feel is reasonable to pay for a stamp?
With stamps selling for far lower than catalogue value, what does catalogue value in fact represent?
Regards
Richmond
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re: Catalogue Value
Anywhere from 5 per cent to several hundred percent depending on centering and condition.
Stamps with multiple faults and or missing corners bring very small percentage of catalog and stamps with large equal margins and no faults regularly trade for more than catalog value.
A sound stamp grading Fine (or the low end of FVF) would normally bring around a third of catalog value (20 to 40 percent). A true FVF stamp would bring around half catalog value (say 40 to 60 percent). A VF stamp perhaps two-thirds (say 60 to 75 percent). Exceptional stemps depends on the buyer - I have sold common never hinged WF issues with large even margins to dealers for over $5 each - catalog value is under a dollar (or was at the time).
Things like freshness, desirability of country, topic, venue, etc all play a role .I can sell items cheaper on SOR than on Bidstart or Ebay because overhead is a lot lower
I am sure there will be many who disagree - it will be an interesting discussion.
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re: Catalogue Value
I question where the catalogue price data that supposedly supports the prices. If the USPS issues a new US stamp today for 1.00. Scott will list is as $2. The net is a $14.95 express mail stamp does not cost $14.95 markup when a 3 cent stamp lists for 25 cents in Scott (minimum value). When I see a dealer price all his stock at Scott values then I know the dealer is not setting the price to market.
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Retired Ap. Book Mod, Pres Golden Gate Stamp Club, Hi Tech Consultant
11 Jul 2017
02:00:11pm
re: Catalogue Value
I was curious about this, and I did a narrow study of catalog prices of some Europa stamps I collect, some year back, comparing the prices, and price changes for identical stamps over 5-10 years. (Scott) I even plotted them!
All prices of all stamps changed annually. The stamp price increases (seldom decreases) were small but not evenly across a series, and were seemingly random...but they clearly reflected a computer program that made them vary year to year, rather than remain unchanged (and therefore why would you buy a new catalog?).
I tried to reconstruct the algorism, but did not have the patience, so I am guessing that Scott does not re-evaluate stamps annually, as they pretend, but has written a piece of software to make them change slightly. I think they do take an occasional in depth look at a few countries which has shown quite a large Market change (think China, more recently). But with ebay establishing what seems to be a market benchmark for most common stamps, you would think that Catalog printers would recalibrate based on real market data....nooooooo, it would just wreck the market!
I think that excluding the cost of labor, storage, catalog etc... most stamps (but not the rarer or more unique ones) seldom bring more than 50% of Catalog.
When I bid, on ebay or elsewhere, my aim is to not exceed 25%. You loose some, but then a few weeks later, you get them.
In summary (my opinion)
Price changes annually in Catalogs are in my view a scam, intended to sell new catalogs. Just use the catalog price as a general guideline. When the catalog says 35c...it really means somewhere between 15c and 35c, and look at condition and availability. If hundreds are on sale, aim really low. If only one is on sale at any one time...you may want to pay full price or more to secure it. Now if I think Catalog price variation year to year is a scam...don't ask me about "professionally graded" stamps...or Michaelxxx may censor my language here!
I laugh when I see pricing in stores or auctions of say a $0.70c catalog priced stamps listed at 1/3 of catalog...exactly $0.23...really...not $0.20 or $0.25..but $0.23! They rounded it to the nearest penny! And the seller refuses a best offer! Can anyone explain to me how a common stamp (check Hipstamp for example) can be offered at all possible prices from $0.10 to $0.70 by various dealers, simultaneously? Does anyone look at their competition, and how many items are listed at any one time?
Most common stamps are worth virtually nothing (I commonly give them a market value of less than $0.05). What you pay for is the overhead, labor, storage, listing, filing and retrieving costs of these colorful little worthless pieces of paper...that we still love to collect.
For the averagely rarer items, I personally would not pay more than 1/3 of catalog, and I rarely do...but there are exceptions.
For the exceptionally rare stamp (not always the most expensive ones too)....pay whatever you want and can afford to pay, to get the stamp when you see it, if you want it, as it may be years (if ever) before you see it again. You will also see prices of the more valuable ones steadily rising over time!
I still miss a few I should have bought years ago....but have not encountered ever since...and some catalogued for a mere $0.20! Example: I have some Argentina Official Agencies stamps minimally priced (in Scott) that I just cannot find. I would gladly pay 200% of their catalog value, or more, just to get them and complete my page! No luck! And at such a low catalog price, no one wants to bother to list them.
And for that $100 stamp I decided to wait out, cheaply,..it is now listed at $500!...darn! So pay what you must for some you just must get to complete a collection, or an album page.
rrr...
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Auctions
re: Catalogue Value
Richmond,
it depends.....
that typically starts all answers to subjective questions (even where Ralph's scientific algorhythms might come into play).
The quality of the stamp plays a part; rarity plays a more important part; and demand the most important part.
If Scott values the Army issue of 1945 at 25c for a used single, but you can buy a sheet of 50 MNH copies for 75c, one can see that catalogues might lead one astray.
David
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Retired Ap. Book Mod, Pres Golden Gate Stamp Club, Hi Tech Consultant
11 Jul 2017
03:40:02pm
re: Catalogue Value
I expect all stamps of European countries to drop in the near future, in the Scott Catalog listing, reflecting the devaluation of the Euro and British Pound against the US Dollar. I expect that a computer program will be used to randomize the changes across the various stamps, rather than apply, as I would, a standard percentage which reflects the currency changes.
The more confusing it is, the better it should be (for selling Catalogs)?
Except for the very latest stamps issued, does anyone really believe there is a need for a full reprint of the annual (now 12 volume) Scott Catalog?
I was hoping that Scott would simply issue a yearly supplement for the new stamps, and a periodic (every 5 years?) update of their full catalog.
And then some on-going annual selective updates, available on-line by subscription, just to the areas they have truly re-evaluated! Instead, they are sticking to their old formula, and feeding us lots of rather meaningless updated numbers!
rrr....
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this post
re: Catalogue Value
Thank you, these responses have been very illuminating.
Regards
Richmond
Login to Like
this post
re: Catalogue Value
I'm not sure anyone mentioned this above, but consider looking at completed sales at popular auction sites for the stamp in question. By popular action sites I really primarily Ebay to start with, but there are others you can use that will probably have higher quality. Use the Advanced Search feature on Ebay. However, be aware that the condition of the stamp makes a big difference to the value. You might find the Ebay completed sales for say a US #1 and #2 might contain a lot of poor condition stamps, whereas completed auctions at auction houses (e.g. Harmer Schau etc.) might show stamps in better condition, so you can't simply go by price. Condition is everything in evaluating what to pay for a stamp, so keep that in mind.
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re: Catalogue Value
Rrraphy,
Scott does not use an algorithm or formula for increasing pricing, they do not use a database. At best they would have to use a text tool like ‘Find and Replace’ to do any kind of batch updating to the catalog values. Due to the manual process and intense amount of man hours required, I think that they struggle just to try to keep up with the higher value stamps selling at major auctions.
In terms of catalog values, most stamps are worth exactly the same today as they were in 1940 (adjusted for inflation).
Lastly, all catalog publishers want to sell catalogs. It is doubtful that they would sell more catalogs if they published declining catalog values every year over an extended time. Of course they have to deal with some decreases but I am sure there is some internal pressure to show catalog value increases year in and year out.
Don
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this post
re: Catalogue Value
I am still waiting for Scott to raise the minimum value due to ebay and paypal fees! Remember when Scott re-valued everything in 1988?
Login to Like
this post
re: Catalogue Value
The big changes in values for Europa stamps was actually part of a stamp investment pyramid scheme perpetrated out of Spain involving Forum Filatélico and Afinsa.
Scott listed the rapidly changing values of Europa stamps in italics to indicate an unstable market. Since the fraud was exposed in 2006, Scott values have been dropping, or returned to "normal" since then.
Linns reported on this in 2006:
Stamp Investment Fraud
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Retired Ap. Book Mod, Pres Golden Gate Stamp Club, Hi Tech Consultant
11 Jul 2017
11:11:42pm
re: Catalogue Value
I agree about Europa's pricing situation Michael...but when I looked at these prices, they were actually fairly stable and just inching up and it was before the scandal broke., and Europa tanked....and it is just as an example...I bet you it is the same for other stamps.
I looked at history from successive yearly issue of Scott, trying to understand how and why all prices seem to change from one year to another, in a non systematic way, as if some smart analyst had actually measured accurately every price and entered a new researched number....when it was clearly just a (not so) clever piece of software tweaking them.
It made me doubt that ANY scott value had any real backing behind it, and they could all be taken as negotiable, no real exact value, except to the agenda of the publisher.
As you know, I only give catalog value a superficial significance as a guideline for pricing within a range...minimum valued stamps (available in millions) priced today at 25c...and worth much less, slightly less widely circulated (but still in the millions) valued 25c-$1.00...wort typically 20% of Cats, and then the more valuable ones $1.00 to $2.00, $2.00 to 5.00 etc...to be examined more closely for valuation, depending on how many are out there for sale at any one time.
This is how I price in Approvals (plus a penny or so extra, for additional work I may put, writing in cat #s, organizing sequentially etc...), The reference catalog value is a pricing-bracket guideline..(And it is from whatever my latest catalog is on my bookshelf...currently 2013).
In the US, you can still use any old Mint stamp issued by the Post Office (so it retains a de facto facial value..although you can buy them discounted, as so many are around!). Not so, in most foreign countries, and older Mint stamps in currencies no longer in use have dropped well below their facial value..and facial value has lost any meaning for older stamps, not to also discount the impact of inflation and exchanges.
Still I think, there is a lots of rubbish in the pricing in Catalogs relative to reality! Please do not take a catalog value as a absolute meaningful price!
rrr...
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this post
re: Catalogue Value
In view of the total number of world stamps issued and without taking into account the variations, the sheer immensity of Scott having to ask and obtain the sales figures from a huge number of dealers and websites, then have the staff to collate and update such information puts it beyond reason that it is actually done for the vast majority of stamps.
How many dealers have actually the time and staff or even resources to complete a form listing prices of all stamps sold. Maybe David can answer whether his shop has ever had an enquiry.
Just feel, like rrraphy, that it is a machine decision or a human directive to a computer, mind you if they did have to employ sufficient staff it could totally wipe out unemployment.
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this post
re: Catalogue Value
"In the US, you can still use any old Mint stamp issued by the Post Office"
Only stamps (postage and air mail) issued after 1862 are valid for postage. (I just used a 2 cent Columbian. The clerks in my post office went goo goo ga ga over it, and talked about it for days. I have another 2 cent Columbian I'll be using soon.)
"Still I think, there is a lots of rubbish in the pricing in Catalogs relative to reality! Please do not take a catalog value as a absolute meaningful price!"
100% correct. Look at the Scott catalogs as a good example. The current edition of the catalogs is 2018. Volume 1 was issued in April 2017. There is about a four to six month deadline prior to publication to stop all updates so that the catalog can be checked for errors and final preparation for printing. They do add new issues up through the April 2017 Linn's Monthly issue, however. Still, that means that the values for the older stamps were finalized for publication in Volume 1 around December 2016 for a 2018 catalog! The values are grossly out of date even before the catalog is printed.
The April 2017 Linns Monthly contains the last group of new issues to be added to the catalog (remember that there is a two month lag-time for publication of the Linns Monthly. With a few exceptions, the new issues in that issue are from 2014-2016. Even the stamp listings are behind. It would be more correct to call the latest edition of the Scott Catalogs the 2016 edition, since most of the newest stamps, and the values contained in the catalog are from 2016.
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Approvals
re: Catalogue Value
Back when I was a youngster, probably around 13 in the 7th decade of the last century, I was happily adding up my fortune by looking every stamp I had and writing down the catalog value. My stamps were those we'd consider essentially worthless. Lots of used US definitives that we would have in the hundreds, etc. When my father got home I gleefully showed him the total and that I was well on my way to being a millionaire.
That was when he explained to me the concept of supply and demand. Essentially, a stamp was only worth what someone would pay me for it. I wasn't pleased and went out to disprove his theory. I took some of my duplicates and tried to sell them to my friends at that magic book value. No dice! He had burst my bubble!
Today, with most US stamps after 1940 worth face value or less, instead of Scott giving every used stamp a value of a quarter, they should just notate EHH!
Personally I'm happy that the stamp market is in the toilet. It's allowed me to buy all the stamps of my youth at rock bottom prices! If that kid of 1970 could see my collection today!
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