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What we collect!
What we collect!


Off Topic/Non-philatelic Disc. : Coronavirus

 

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Snick1946
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APS Life Member

29 Feb 2020
11:25:46am
Am a little surprised to see no comment thus far on this. Maybe we all want to get way from news about it but i have some worries about handling mail from abroad. I'd be interested to hear opinions.
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sheepshanks
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29 Feb 2020
11:31:33am
re: Coronavirus

Just don't lick the stamps from Wuhan. Seriously, the cold that mail is subject to in the hold of an aeroplane and the time delay is probably enough to destroy the virus.
Looks like in South Korea the problem was a church congregation. More concerning are the cases that are showing up on the West Coast of USA where no known link has been found (also one in UK).

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Harvey

I think, therefore I am - I think!

29 Feb 2020
11:33:33am
re: Coronavirus

I hesitate to get on the bandwagon, but I wonder about mail leaving certain areas of China. Can someone out there with knowledge of the area tell us whether we should be concerned? Does a virus survive the postal system?

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sheepshanks
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29 Feb 2020
12:08:28pm
re: Coronavirus

This from BBC website.

"If someone infected with the virus coughs on to their hand and then touches something, that surface may become contaminated. Door handles are a good example of a surface that might pose a risk.

It's not yet known how long the new coronavirus might be able to live on such surfaces. Experts suspect it is hours rather than days but it is best to wash your hands regularly to help reduce the risk of infection and spread of the virus. "



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Snick1946
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APS Life Member

29 Feb 2020
01:38:17pm
re: Coronavirus

Touch of irony; we are going out this afternoon for my wife's birthday- to a Chinese place we like. NOT a buffet, so it's probably safe. I wonder if there are any eateries with 'Wuhan' in their name out there. That'd be tough.

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Dakota
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29 Feb 2020
03:37:08pm

Auctions
re: Coronavirus

I just mailed a stamp to South Korea. I hope it isn't returned.

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ArtStamp
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29 Feb 2020
04:09:17pm
re: Coronavirus

This specific strain of virus, according to the Chinese authorities and other health officials, can linger on inanimate surfaces for more than other viral strains. A specific time frame varies.

You may check the official USA CDC website to get a definitive answer.

There are several websites that deal with this information, but going to the source--the official CDC notifications website--is a sure bet.

(This reminds me of the post-9-11 postal scare.)

Due diligence is best.

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vinman
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29 Feb 2020
08:41:30pm
re: Coronavirus

Skip the rumors and stick to the basics, wash your hands. Time to get into the stock market, buy low. Looking forward to the rally after the masses figure out they were lied to again by the fake news.
There will probably be some postal history to collect in the future after postal administrations start taking measures to disinfect the mail.

Vince

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DaveSheridan
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29 Feb 2020
08:57:09pm
re: Coronavirus

The first Australian death has been reported today. SARS was bad, but this is spreading five times as fast.

I've just come back from a trip to Thailand. Probably 90% of people on the plane and at every airport wore a mask. At one regional airport, we were greeted by soldiers and nurses, who took our temperature and disinfected our hands.

The virus has also just hit New Zealand. Considering how remote we are from the rest of the world, don't think this won't get a lot worse before it gets better.

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ernieinjax
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29 Feb 2020
09:06:18pm
re: Coronavirus

I'm kind of concerned about this one. I heard that there were 5 deaths from that one quarantined cruise ship alone. Sounds like this one is actually killing people.

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Webpaper
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29 Feb 2020
09:21:43pm
re: Coronavirus

Of course we treat the flu lightly, many not even getting their flu shots

"So far, 14,000 people have died and 250,000 people have been hospitalized during the 2019-2020 flu season, according to preliminary estimates from the CDC."

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ikeyPikey
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29 Feb 2020
11:12:01pm
re: Coronavirus

'
The 1918 influenza epidemic did not put Coney Island or Cunard Line out of business.

DIS (Disney) stock has taken a hit. Even if more of the theme parks go offline, they'll be back.

CCL (Carnival) stock has taken a hit. Short of liquidation, it is a safe bet that the customers who prefer cruises to air travel will be back.

My unsolicited, unqualified advice is to buy some now and, if they go down, buy some more.

Cheers,

/s/ ikeyPikey (who also suggests a peek at Costco & Shopify)

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cdj1122
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Silence in the face of adversity is the father of complicity and collusion, the first cousins of conspiracy..

29 Feb 2020
11:30:58pm
re: Coronavirus

Well
Vinnie says it is just a hoax with made up stories about dead people.so why worry.?

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vinman
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29 Feb 2020
11:51:38pm
re: Coronavirus

Sorry Charlie,
You made my point about fake news. If you don't agree with someone just tell lies and keep telling them until you and others believe your own BS.

Vinnie says it is just a hoax with made up stories about dead people.so why worry.?

Never said it, never implied it. please don't make up lies about what I said. It's OK to disagree with me but stop lying.

Vince

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keesindy
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29 Feb 2020
11:52:43pm
re: Coronavirus

Lots of misinformation out there. Some of it laughable and some of it dangerous/counterproductive.

The US got a good start on this back in January. Travel ban from China began January 31. On February 4, Congress was still up to their eyeballs in the impeachment trial process, but my wife and I were surprised when her pulmonologist's office screened us with prepared questions relating to coronavirus. I don't know if the screening protocol originated with CDC, NIH or the hospital system, but it's an encouraging sign of some level of awareness and early coordination. We hadn't been out of the state, much less the country in the past year, and were impressed the healthcare system (or at least part of it) was already taking such precautions.


Tom

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angore
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Collector, Moderator

01 Mar 2020
06:53:47am
re: Coronavirus

All - The discussion can stay civil if people avoid divisive political lingo. It does not help to the discussion.


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Brechinite
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Neddie Seagoon from The Telegoons

01 Mar 2020
07:31:04am

Auctions - Approvals
re: Coronavirus

All one can do is protect themselves and their loved ones and hope for the best.

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"StayAlert.......Control The Virus.......Save Lives."
ikeyPikey
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01 Mar 2020
07:49:53am
re: Coronavirus

"... after the masses figure out they were lied to again by the fake news ..."



To be fair to Charlie (who overdid it a bit when confronted with politically-charged keywords):

Q/ When were the masses lied to ? When someone said “we have it totally under control” ?

I have not seen the mainstream media forced to walk-back their reporting: Wuhan remains the epicenter, the mechanisms of transmission have not been nailed down, and barn doors keep getting closed long after the horses have galloped to another country.

But I have heard the word "hoax", again & again, and I do not think that it is helping.

Cheers,

/s/ ikeyPikey
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51Studebaker
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Dialysis, damned if you do...dead if you don't

01 Mar 2020
08:16:16am
re: Coronavirus

"...Lots of misinformation out there..."



I agree with this and think that this is occurring for two reasons. First, there is a vacuum of information and without information people make things up. Second, both the media and politicians can use fear to help themselves. The fear mongering in the media is unfortunate but the news media mantra has always been ‘if it bleeds, it leads’. There is no argument that fear generates clicks and ratings for the media. Here in the US, the issue has also been politicized with both parties trying to use it against the other. I find this particularly lame, this is something that should transcend politics and bring everyone together.

The scary thing is that so little is known including having no idea how it is being transmitted. China has refused multiple requests for samples of the virus that other countries want to run tests on to determine how long it can survive on various surfaces. China has also prohibited CDC personnel and other scientists from going to Wuhan region. And of course they also did not notify WHO in a timely fashion after they knew they had a problem. It was a Chinese doctor named Li Wenliang who first shared suspicions of a new contagious virus he began urging his fellow healthcare providers to wear protective clothing to avoid infection on December 30. Four days later he was summoned to the Chinese Public Security Bureau and was told to sign a letter that accused him of "making false comments" that had "severely disturbed the social order". Chinese officials announced on January 30th that he had the virus and then let his family know that he had died on Feb 7th.

What is known is that older men with other health issues are particularly susceptible. As a person who is on dialysis I am part of the most susceptible group but also cannot restrict my exposure by limiting my movement. I am forced to go to 175+ medical procedures per year to facilities which are filled with other highly susceptible folks. I have little doubt that will get this virus if it hits the US that way it has hit the Wuhan region of China.

The six month survival rate for people diagnosed with the Stage 4 cancer I have is 5%-10% and I have beat that. The five year survival rate for dialysis patients is 35.8% and I have beat that. In other words, I have already beaten the odds twice and doubt that pressing my luck once again is wise.

But I am not running out to buy masks (which is just silly since masks stop others from getting what you have, not the other way around) nor am I ‘prepping’ for the collapse of society. While I have no faith in any politician or government I have faith in democracy and capitalism; these provide the environment and motivation to develop tests, cures, and vaccinations. They have greatly decreased human mortality rates and certainly have been responsible for me being here now.

"...When were the masses lied to..."


ikey,
There is plenty of lame news and reporting on this, including your hometown newspaper (NY Times), which suggested calling the virus the 'Trumpvirus'. I grew up with the Sunday Times spread out on the floor every weekend but frankly I would not line a bird cage with it anymore.
This virus does not have a political leaning and when the media tortures it into a political story they are doing an incredible disservice to the public.

The media in the US is filled with those critical of the way it is being handled yet not in a single report have I seen someone say, 'they should be doing this'. Whining without offering any solutions is counter-productive and only leads to the fear mongering.
Don

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d1stamper
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01 Mar 2020
09:21:41am

Auctions
re: Coronavirus

I just read this :-
IMPORTANT ANNOUNCEMENT - CORONAVIRUS
Last evening dining out with friends, one of their uncles, who's graduated with a master's degree and who worked in Shenzhen Hospital (Guangdong Province, China) sent him the following notes on Coronavirus for guidance:
1. If you have a runny nose and sputum, you have a common cold
2. Coronavirus pneumonia is a dry cough with no runny nose.
3. This new virus is not heat-resistant and will be killed by a temperature of just 26/27 degrees. It hates the Sun.
4. If someone sneezes with it, it takes about 10 feet before it drops to the ground and is no longer airborne.
5. If it drops on a metal surface it will live for at least 12 hours - so if you come into contact with any metal surface - wash your hands as soon as you can with a bacterial soap.
6. On fabric it can survive for 6-12 hours. normal laundry detergent will kill it.
7. Drinking warm water is effective for all viruses. Try not to drink liquids with ice.
8. Wash your hands frequently as the virus can only live on your hands for 5-10 minutes, but - a lot can happen during that time - you can rub your eyes, pick your nose unwittingly and so on.
9. You should also gargle as a prevention. A simple solution of salt in warm water will suffice.
10. Can't emphasise enough - drink plenty of water!
THE SYMPTOMS
1. It will first infect the throat, so you'll have a sore throat lasting 3/4 days
2. The virus then blends into a nasal fluid that enters the trachea and then the lungs, causing pneumonia. This takes about 5/6 days further.
3. With the pneumonia comes high fever and difficulty in breathing.
4. The nasal congestion is not like the normal kind. You feel like you're drowning. It's imperative you then seek immediate attention.

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Benque

01 Mar 2020
09:35:44am
re: Coronavirus

Is it OK to pick your nose wittingly?

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vinman
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01 Mar 2020
09:49:21am
re: Coronavirus

d1stamper,
That is good information if true. I am not saying it is false but where did this information come from. I ask because you stated
I just read this :-
IMPORTANT ANNOUNCEMENT - CORONAVIRUS

This is all common sense procedures (what you should do normaly) that is not on Main Stream Media where many folks trust for correct information but can't find it there. Way too much false information out there and a lot of scare tactics. I stand by my original post"wash your hands."

Vince

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51Studebaker
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Dialysis, damned if you do...dead if you don't

01 Mar 2020
10:32:24am
re: Coronavirus

"Last evening dining out with friends, one of their uncles, who's graduated with a master's degree and who worked in Shenzhen Hospital (Guangdong Province, China) sent him the following notes on Coronavirus for guidance:"


So they heard from a friend of friend? In a court of law this is called hearsay. Sorry, this is the kind of thing that only spreads rumors and false information. For example you posted

"4. If someone sneezes with it, it takes about 10 feet before it drops to the ground and is no longer airborne.
5. If it drops on a metal surface it will live for at least 12 hours - so if you come into contact with any metal surface - wash your hands as soon as you can with a bacterial soap.
6. On fabric it can survive for 6-12 hours. normal laundry detergent will kill it"


This testing has NOT been completed and the above is pure speculation.

The place to get correct information is from the CDC or the leading Disease Control folks in your own county and avoid rumors and speculation.
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html

From the CDC site
Person-to-person spread
The virus is thought to spread mainly from person-to-person.
Between people who are in close contact with one another (within about 6 feet).
Through respiratory droplets produced when an infected person coughs or sneezes.
These droplets can land in the mouths or noses of people who are nearby or possibly be inhaled into the lungs.

Spread from contact with infected surfaces or objects
It may be possible that a person can get COVID-19 by touching a surface or object that has the virus on it and then touching their own mouth, nose, or possibly their eyes, but this is not thought to be the main way the virus spreads.



In other words, the CDC is saying that they do NOT know for sure nor have they confirmed through testing how it is transmitted or how long the virus can survive on surfaces. A lab in Montana has been requesting samples of the virus from China for over a month so they can do surface testing. So far China has ignored all requests from other countries for virus samples. Countries are trying to grow new testing samples in labs but most of these samples are going into research for testing if a person has it and a possible vaccine.
Don

EDIT: The "IMPORTANT ANNOUNCEMENT - CORONAVIRUS" that is posted above is from Facebook posts that have been floating around for the last 24 hours. While I think it contains good general infection control information, it contains completely unverified information regarding the current Covid-19 strain.

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DannyS
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01 Mar 2020
10:40:24am
re: Coronavirus

Here in Bangkok there isn't any real panic yet. About half of travelers on the mass transit lines are wearing facemasks, but I'm not sure that's up much more than when we have our yearly peak flu epidemic. A lot of malls and shops are putting hand cleaning gel dispensers at the doors. At the Makro cash and carry today as well as the hand gel a staff member was offering to take customer's temperature with an airport type digital thermometer. I'm OK for that anyway. If it does become a full on pandemic then we should be careful calling it a hoax as the mortality rates look fairly bad.

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angore
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Collector, Moderator

01 Mar 2020
10:45:06am
re: Coronavirus

I do not see a lot of misinformation and note there is a lot of official sources for information in the world. I would expect differences in medical conclusions based upon best information.

What I see more of is the usual politicization by various sides and the usual hyping (extensive coverage) by media for ratings in the absence of other news. Talking heads have to make a living.

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51Studebaker
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Dialysis, damned if you do...dead if you don't

01 Mar 2020
10:58:33am
re: Coronavirus

"I do not see a lot of misinformation..."



Al, There is so much misinformation that they have coined a new term for it, "infodemic". Here are just a handful of recent stories about the misinformation

Coronavirus: Misinformation and false medical advice spreads in Iran
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-51677530


Roughly 2 million tweets spread dangerous misinformation and hoaxes about the coronavirus
https://www.businessinsider.com/report-2-million-tweets-spread-dangerous-coronavirus-misinformation-2020-2


The coronavirus ‘infodemic’ is real
https://www.statnews.com/2020/02/28/websites-spreading-coronavirus-misinformation-infodemic/

Fake Facts Are Flying About Coronavirus
https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/02/21/805287609/theres-a-flood-of-fake-news-about-coronavirus-and-a-plan-to-stop-it

W.H.O. Fights a Pandemic Besides Coronavirus: an ‘Infodemic’
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/06/health/coronavirus-misinformation-social-media.html

Don
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Snick1946
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APS Life Member

01 Mar 2020
11:56:24am
re: Coronavirus

Not linking to it but ran across a site today of some 'Psychic' claiming the virus was engineered by the 'deep state' and the Illuminati. They plan to wipe out 60 million of us so the remainder is easy to control. I'm strong on free speech but stuff like this is dangerous.

Washington state has declared an emergency. Shows like PIPEX might be in danger of cancellation.

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Webpaper
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01 Mar 2020
12:13:33pm
re: Coronavirus

It's because it is unknown that creates the problem - the flu is known.

"It's fear of the unknown. The unknown is what it is. And to be frightened of it is what sends everybody scurrying around in circles chasing dreams, illusions, wars, peace, love, hate, all that - it's all illusion. Unknown is what it is. "

John Lennon

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sheepshanks
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01 Mar 2020
12:18:57pm
re: Coronavirus

Think we might be scaring the normal people just a bit. Cough, sneeze, ache wheeze. Keep boiling the hankies Ma.

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okstamps
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01 Mar 2020
12:53:57pm
re: Coronavirus

I stopped watching TV news years ago, as well as paying attention to most print and online Main-Stream-Media (MSM). Just too many agendas and misinformation on all sorts of topics. Came to this conclusion many years ago when I was in my teens, now I am in my 60s. Guess I might have been more analytical than most and ended up putting that trait to good use in my career as a chemist in the energy service industry.

I have found several good sites on YouTube about this topic. The videos that I have been watching have been authored by medical doctors or people with a good medical background. They have been referencing the information put out by the CDC, the WHO and the many papers that are being published in the medical journals with the most up-to-date information and have been posting links to that online information.

The links to these sites are as follows, the first being from the US and the second from Great Britain:

https://www.youtube.com/user/ChrisMartensondotcom/videos

https://www.youtube.com/user/Campbellteaching/videos

Both have been giving good tips on how to handle the situation and what to watch out for. Both have been very critical of how their national governments have been handling the situation, with their belief that most governments appear to be more worried about their economies than the health of their citizens. Two countries that they have praised for their responses are Singapore and South Korea.

I personally have ignored past plague scares, with those scares generally fizzling out (SARS, MERS, Swine Flu, etc.) although affecting some areas of the world rather severely. But when the information on this virus started coming out it looked much more similar to the Spanish Flu from 100 years ago (much more virulent). That was bad; my grandmother had a younger brother that perished from that flu.

Now that I am over 60 years of age I am starting to take the flu and similar viral infections much more seriously. I have had my yearly flu shot and have taken both available pneumonia vaccinations in the past several years. I got a case of bacterial pneumonia after getting the flu about 15 years ago, which then resulted in a case of shingles. I don't want to go through that again.

I have stocked up on the essentials that will tide me over for a couple of months if necessary. Just look at how this is being handled in China at the moment and ask yourself if the Chinese government would be taking such drastic measures if this isn't a big deal.

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vinman
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01 Mar 2020
01:07:01pm
re: Coronavirus

Speaking of viruses, Kelleher has an article in this quarter's edition of "Kelleher's
Stamp Collectors Quarterly" by Thomas Lera titled "Mosquitoes Impact on Florida Mail in the 19th Century." It shows how misinformation and lack of information can cause people the make irrational decisions. The post office made a paddle with spikes to use on mail to puncture the envelopes so sulfur fumes could penetrate the envelope and keep Malaria from spreading.

I don't have any examples in my collection yet, but I do have some covers from the post 9/11 hysteria.
Here is a link to the magazine, if the link don't work you can see this issue and all back issues on their site.
https://www.kelleherauctions.com/magazine/kcc_021/index.htm

Vince

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ArtStamp
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01 Mar 2020
01:13:29pm
re: Coronavirus

???*****!!!!!!It Wasn't Me

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BrightonPete

01 Mar 2020
02:10:13pm
re: Coronavirus

I have to be careful going out. Just because I cough a bit & sneeze doesn't mean I have Covid-19!

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Brechinite
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Neddie Seagoon from The Telegoons

01 Mar 2020
02:27:51pm

Auctions - Approvals
re: Coronavirus

"Keep boiling the hankies Ma."




Sheepshanks:- You're showing your age now!!
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d1stamper
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01 Mar 2020
02:29:59pm

Auctions
re: Coronavirus

Vince

I read from a post by a relative on Facebook. I am not sure how accurate it is, but thought maybe some one may be able to fine if it is true.

Doug

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ikeyPikey
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01 Mar 2020
03:02:09pm
re: Coronavirus

"... your hometown newspaper (NY Times), which suggested calling the virus the 'Trumpvirus' ..."



And you object to misinformation !

Gail Collins is a political humorist, who is forever reminding readers that the Mitt Romneys took a road trip with their dog in a carrier on the roof of their car. Her column began:

"So, our Coronavirus Czar is going to be … Mike Pence. Feeling more secure?"



https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/26/opinion/coronavirus-trump.html


Moreover, the NYTimes has been telling people to wash their hands for more than a month:

How to Avoid the Coronavirus? Wash Your Hands

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/28/opinion/coronavirus-prevention-tips.html

Cheers,

/s/ ikeyPikey
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Harvey

I think, therefore I am - I think!

01 Mar 2020
03:09:50pm
re: Coronavirus

I am laid up with the flu right now, but that's all it is. I'm almost afraid to go out in case someone sees me coughing!
Joe

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sheepshanks
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01 Mar 2020
03:28:57pm
re: Coronavirus

@Brechinite, Ian thought we all still did that, saves filling up the landfill with all the tissues that we made from the trees we cut down to make them. I always found that using tissues made my nose itch, probably the fibres that come off the paper.
I also hate when I find that she who commands has left a tissue in her cardi pocket when I empty the washtub.
Now where is my Sunlight laundry soap and washboard.

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postalpicker

01 Mar 2020
03:42:45pm
re: Coronavirus

Some have said to buy low, since the market is in a panic.

I do not know if there is the availability to buy options on any DOW 100 funds?

Just think about it this way.

If you had an option for 5 blocks of the Dow 100, that would be worth 500 shares to trade up or down.

The market dropped 3,000 points in 3 days, that would be a gain of 3,000 times 500 or $1,500.000 in just 3 days!

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51Studebaker
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Dialysis, damned if you do...dead if you don't

01 Mar 2020
06:21:41pm
re: Coronavirus


Ikey,
So in your opinion editorials do not influence people? Or that saying things like "So, our Coronavirus Czar is going to be … Mike Pence. Feeling more secure?" is not fear mongering?

Sorry, I do not buy into your 'its just an editorial' defense. This kind of crap has no place in any media publication right now, we do not need divisive stuff like this. We need to be pulling together and leave politics out of it.

If after all of this is over, people are not dying, and the public is more at ease she can play her political card. But this is exactly the kind of thing that has US public opinion on the media at such a low level. Ms. Collins should be ashamed of herself.
Don

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ikeyPikey
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01 Mar 2020
06:32:49pm
re: Coronavirus

"... So in your opinion editorials do not influence people? ..."



Please do not give me opinions; I have enough of my own, many in duplicate, some in complete sets.

What I do think that suspending all op-ed pieces for the duration of the crisis would be fear-mongering par excellence.

Ditto suspending legislative & political & scientific debate.

Cheers,

/s/ ikeyPikey (who notes that the administration is forbidding government scientists to speak freely in public)
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Dialysis, damned if you do...dead if you don't

01 Mar 2020
07:49:15pm
re: Coronavirus

ikey,
I certainly did not say that op-ed should be suspended for the duration of the crisis. But having the right to speech does not mean it is always right to say something. What value is there is being divisive right now? (For the public, I assume the value for her the NY Times was more money in their pockets.)

And speaking of divisive you said in your post, “And you object to misinformation !”. You could have simply said ‘I do not agree with you’ without this kind of acrimonious personal attack.
Don

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Jansimon
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02 Mar 2020
03:50:17am

Auctions - Approvals
re: Coronavirus

the funny - and also beautiful - thing about opinions is that everyone seems to have one nowadays. In an ideal world it is normal that one does not have to agree with another person's opinion, but tolerates it because it is, or should be reciprocal.
Sometimes different opinions may even lead to new insights, but it seems that instead of bringing people together, it fuels polarization.
What is wrong with saying "that's an interesting thought, I haven't looked at it in that way" instead of feeling attacked or offended.

Jan-Simon

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02 Mar 2020
06:10:58am
re: Coronavirus

"... We need to be pulling together and leave politics out of it ... What value is there is being divisive right now? ..."



So you'll take the Moral High Road for yourself, and leave us the rest? Bold move!

No government scientist is going to throw down her test tubes in disgust because SNL cracks a joke ... even if that joke is about government scientists. (In fact, they might welcome the recognition.)

We can & should devise our public policy response while noting that "the administration" canceled the PREDICT program - and down-sized the infectious disease specialist at the National Security Council - while proposing budget cuts at the CDC in every budget.

Thought Experiment:

Q/ Have you ever heard of a young'n'healthy American doctor or nurse who caught the common cold or the seasonal flu or pneumonia from a patient and died?

This has happened several times in Wuhan and, yes, it is newsworthy. Ditto that their standard protective gear did not help as much as one might hope. Ditto that (apparently) symptom-free people are passing the disease around. Typhoid Mary was newsworthy.

It is beyond delicious that you cite an NPR story (the curated crown jewel of the coastal cultural elite) for debunking the garbage you are reading on the uncurated Facebook and the uncurated Twitter. Rely on the Ivy League much?

We live in a mature, industrial democracy. Our manufacturers can make drugs & gloves & masks, and our doctors & nurses can treat patients, and our officials can make decisions about school openings & closings, and all this can happen while Gail Collins & Rush Limbaugh are cracking snarky jokes.

Like the man said: democracy is messy.

Cheers,

/s/ ikeyPikey
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02 Mar 2020
07:01:03am
re: Coronavirus

Meanwhile, in the rest of the world outside the US......

- New Zealand has blocked any travellers from mainland China, even if they were transiting
- Australia has initiated a pandemic plan
- 56 countries have now reported cases, every continent except Antarctica is affected
- People are panic buying across the world and "prepping"
- France has banned indoor events of more than 5,000 people

How serious does it need to be before people stop bickering about the politics??

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02 Mar 2020
07:07:50am

Auctions - Approvals
re: Coronavirus

I just heard from my brother that a complete department in the office building next to where he works was shut down because a woman who works there may have the virus. First test was positive, now waiting for the second one to confirm it.
With that in mind, it is no longer something that happens far, far away.

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02 Mar 2020
09:06:30am
re: Coronavirus

I work for a multi-national company and have operations in China so work with Chinese suppliers. We have seem impacts to supply chain (delays in materials and operations) and the company has banned business travel to multiple countries. One co-worker just took a long planned vacation to Egypt and Jordan! One vendor employee has parents in the original province but told they live out in the country so less risk. They had visited them during CNY. But, I engage with them daily so work continues and do what you can.

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03 Mar 2020
10:50:40am
re: Coronavirus

Unfortunately, some infected & shedding virus carriers can be asymptomatic. So get used to elbow bumps and washing with soap for 1 round of “Happy Birthday”. This is going to be a difficult period ahead of us, what with the fear of death and losing everything.

And then there’s the Covid-19 virus…

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03 Mar 2020
05:45:47pm

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re: Coronavirus

I imagine or rather hope the flights will get a lot cheaper this year with people not willing to fly.

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04 Mar 2020
01:51:50am
re: Coronavirus

The following link from Johns Hopkins shows where infections from the virus have been reported around the world.

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

It is a very interactive map that allows one to blow up or reduce the map image to get a better picture of where infections have been reported. Click on one of the red dots to get more detailed information for that location.

I have been watching updates of this map over several weeks. It has been amazing how quickly it has spread across the globe. Just today Argentina, Chile, Tunisia, and even Liechtenstein reported cases (Andorra, Monaco and San Marino have previously reported cases, with San Marino even reporting a death).

Where individual countries have been very good at testing for the virus and openly reporting cases, the numbers for that country have been exploding. South Korea is a good example. Almost everywhere where a case has been reported, several days later another case or two is reported, with the numbers then just starting to explode. From what I can see with the spread of cases across the United States and with number of cases starting to grow fast in a few locations in the United States, we are just starting to begin a very fast increase in total infection numbers.

For most (over 80%) an infection with this virus appears to be no worse than a cold or flu. But for about 15% of cases hospitalization may be required with up to 5% requiring intensive care. It does not appear to be a problem at all for the very young, but for those of us 60 years old and above it can be much more severe (death tolls of at least 3% increasing to over 15% for those above 80 years of age. The overall death rate appears to be in the 1-2% range, which is still 10 to 20 times that of the flu. And this is with the assumption that good medical care is available.

The big problem will be a potential shortage of available hospital care for those needing it. There is no immunity to this virus as it is a new virus. So everyone can potentially get it. There is no vaccine and none will be available for months, it at all. This virus is extremely contagious, able to survive for days on hard surfaces under the right conditions and being passed by both droplets (sneezing or coughing) and aerosol (much smaller droplets that stay suspended for long periods of time). It is much more infectious than the flu.

The high hospitalization rate and especially the very high intensive care rate will be the big problem. There will not be a sufficient number of hospital or intensive care beds to go around for all that will need them. This is where governments then clamp down with the quarantines in an effort to stop the spread. This is what happened in China with most of that country going into a complete stoppage.

And one does not get over this illness quickly. It can linger for weeks. For those more severely affected, it results in pneumonia, with one having the feeling of continuously drowning going on for many days in a row.

As I mentioned in my previous post, I have seen similar potential epidemics come and go over the decades, being hyped up by the press and then fizzling out without causing too much of a fuss. My gut feeling is that this one is going to be different, it is going to be similar to the Spanish Flu in its effects on the world. Some countries (China, Iran, South Korea, Italy, potentially Japan) have already been hit very hard. China's economy is being hit extremely hard, and with over 25% of all manufactured goods in the world being produced in China, the whole world is going to feel the effects. We no longer produce any vaccines and hardly any prescription medications in country, they are all produced in China. No medical masks are produced in the United States, they are all produced in China. When China decides that they need to retain these products in their own country because of their now great need for these products themselves, what are we going to do?

I am taking this very seriously. The daily pictures out of China with their great cities completely shut down with absolutely no traffic reminds me of some of the scenes from disaster movies. Would China being doing this if it was no big deal? I have seen video clips where a person is walking or standing and they then just collapse. In one case a person was standing on a sidewalk and then they just fell forward; they made no effort to cushion the fall with their arms, they just fell face-first into the pavement. Such images are common out of China, Korea and Iran.

The Spanish Flu circled the globe several times over a period of couple of years 100 years ago. In the process, it killed anywhere from 50 million to 100 million people. Many have been warning for the potential for a new illness to crop up and cause just as much damage. Is this it?

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04 Mar 2020
01:56:13am
re: Coronavirus

"... I imagine or rather hope the flights will get a lot cheaper this year with people not willing to fly ..."



Only if there are flights, period.

The airlines have gotten very, very good at flying aircraft with every seat sold ... or not at all.

After 9/11, driving went up, flying went down, deaths on the highways went ...

What with the 737 MAX grounded, the other aircraft in those fleets could probably use a little downtime.

Cheers,

/s/ ikeyPikey
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04 Mar 2020
01:29:40pm

Approvals
re: Coronavirus

" ... or not at all."



I do not think this is a long term option for an Airline company.
The undisputed truth is, the virus helps reduce the greenhouse emissions.
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Benque

04 Mar 2020
04:19:17pm
re: Coronavirus

"on a per-passenger, per-kilometer basis"

Well, that depends an awful lot on the plane....LOL. So many regionals flying around, all over the world, short hopping to the hubs where the big intercontinentals fly from....and these are the economical aircraft that are usually quoted in these kind of statements. And then there are the exec jets. Gee, I wonder if Al Gore is still flitting about in that mobile smoke-bomb Gulfstream G2?

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04 Mar 2020
09:07:19pm
re: Coronavirus

"... the virus helps reduce the greenhouse emissions ..."



Depends on whether/not they cremate the bodies, or ...

Cheers,

/s/ ikeyPikey

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Harvey

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05 Mar 2020
04:34:31pm
re: Coronavirus

The Nova Scotia government just cancelled all school trips outside Canada for a few months. I must admit, if I were still a teacher, a trip to Italy (for example) with a group of kids would be a bit scary now. NS doesn't have a case yet (knock on wood), but it's only a matter of time. There seems to be a lot of needless (I hope) panic, but that's better than ignoring the problem. Strange things happening though - it's amazing that North Korea doesn't have "the virus" where South Korea has a problem. There is way too much POLITICS in this!!!

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Silence in the face of adversity is the father of complicity and collusion, the first cousins of conspiracy..

05 Mar 2020
04:39:47pm
re: Coronavirus

On reflection, inflammatory comment deleted.
Charlie

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Silence in the face of adversity is the father of complicity and collusion, the first cousins of conspiracy..

05 Mar 2020
05:22:14pm
re: Coronavirus

" ....Just look at how this is being handled in China at the moment and ask yourself if the Chinese government would be taking such drastic measures if this isn't a big deal. ...."

An excellent indicator, watch how governments act, and be suspicious of what they say, especially those that have a history of excessive secrecy or frequent mendacity.

" .... But when the information on this virus started coming out it looked much more similar to the Spanish Flu from 100 years ago (much more virulent). ..."

Just in case some have not checked this themselves.
"The 1918 Spanish flu — the worst pandemic of the 20th century — is estimated to have killed at least 50 million people worldwide over the course of three years. That includes 675,000 in the U.S. Among those who were infected, the death rate was estimated to be greater than 2.5% "
AND
" ....Estimates suggest that the world population in 1918 was 1.8 billion .
..."
Today, nearly 7.8 billion so a similar death rate of 2.5% ought to dispatch about 215 million to an early grave.
Let's hope that the "fizzle out" theory is valid and not wishful thinking.

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Silence in the face of adversity is the father of complicity and collusion, the first cousins of conspiracy..

05 Mar 2020
05:44:58pm
re: Coronavirus

" .... One co-worker just took a long planned vacation to Egypt and Jordan! ...."

Have you ever read "An Appointment in Samara" by W. Somerset Maugham ?
This fellow becomes fearful when he sees the hooded figure of Death roaming around in the local marketplace so he leaves Damascus to flee to a relative's home in Samara. That night when death visits the fellows employer, death comments about the missing servant and says that his absence is curious as It (death)has an appointment with him tomorrow in ....Samara.
It would be a classic good read, except I gave away the finish.
I wonder what would make someone consider Egypt or Jordan safer ?

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DaveSheridan
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05 Mar 2020
06:08:31pm
re: Coronavirus

Here in Australia, people are panic-buying toilet paper. The shelves are empty.

If the virus is given a pandemic warning, are they all expecting serious bowel issues? If it's the end of the world as we know it, wouldn't it be more intelligent, if you want to be a prepper, to stockpile food?? Without food, toilet paper becomes somewhat redundant!!

Nowt as queer as folk!

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05 Mar 2020
11:36:27pm
re: Coronavirus

"... Here in Australia, people are panic-buying toilet paper. The shelves are empty ..."



I said much the same thing, and a thoughtful & better-informed person explained to me that you will only find out that you (or a family member) were near an infected person when the authorities come & ask you to self-quarantine for 14 days.

Apparently, not that many people keep, say, three weeks' worth of toilet paper at home.

Ditto baby wipes, diapers ...

So it is not so much panic-buying as sensible stocking.

Cheers,

/s/ ikeyPikey

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06 Mar 2020
07:37:45am
re: Coronavirus

Our company send an email to all employees worldwide outlining measures taken "out of an abundance of caution in an effort to keep our team members safe and healthy." There are restrictions for business and personal travel. We were told to take work laptop home every day. If sick for any reason, stay at home.


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Dialysis, damned if you do...dead if you don't

06 Mar 2020
09:13:44am
re: Coronavirus

Al,
Count your blessings that you work for a good company.

Right now I am sitting in dialysis among 30 other patients all of whom are elderly, in frail health, majority are in wheelchairs and are living at extended care homes or hospices. Two of the healthcare providers who are currently on the floor are sick. One nurse is so sick she mostly has been sitting at a desk with her head down for the last 2 hours. It is standard procedure for dialysis healthcare worked to show up to work when they are ill.

To their credit, they are wearing masks and washing their hands often but it unnerving to have sick healthcare providers coming in physical contact with us when we represent one most vulnerable population of people.

And while there is a grievance procedure, no one dares to use it because the dialysis provider will punish you (i.e. move you to a facility 45 minutes away). And there are no alternative dialysis providers in the vast majority of locations across the USA.

In the US, ESRD (End-Stage Renal Disease) is socialized medicine, Medicare covers it no matter what your age. The two dialysis providers in the US, Fresenius Medical Care and DaVita, have incredibly strong political action groups and lobbyists. They have successfully paid off the politicians and gotten them to changes the laws and regulations for dialysis centers. So instead of the standard medical industry nurse to patient ratio of 1:2 through 1:4 at dialysis facilities they are allowed a 1:12 ratio. Additionally, they are allowed to have a dialysis tech, who has zero formal medical education and are paid minimum wage, to administer IV drugs to patients.

Mark my words, dialysis centers, extended care homes, and hospices will be decimated by this virus.
Don

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06 Mar 2020
12:16:12pm
re: Coronavirus

The other element in this calculus is that those dialysis patients who feel ill cannot easily choose to stay home for, well, any length of time.

Surely, we'll see an explosion of interest in peritoneal dialysis which, for the innocent, can be done at home after a minor surgical procedure (to implant a spigot).

Not every dialysis patient qualifies.

Cheers,

/s/ ikeyPikey

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Harvey

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06 Mar 2020
01:55:31pm
re: Coronavirus

Spigots...bad memories come flooding back. When my wife was in her final few months of cancer "treatment" she had three different hoses coming out of various parts of the body. I changed, and drained, everything every day. The joys of getting old, I just hope I never end up in that state!!!

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06 Mar 2020
02:50:37pm
re: Coronavirus

This feels like watching a Tsunami come at you in slow motion and you can’t do a damn thing about it other than pray. Time to turn off the news and stay home away from crowds of people and healthily, safely, happily, putter on stamps.

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06 Mar 2020
05:59:14pm

Approvals
re: Coronavirus

"Time to turn off the news and stay home away from crowds of people and healthily, safely, happily, putter on stamps."



I imagine retired-self sufficient people with their freezers full have a better chance of survival as are those living off the land somewhere in the bush.

The rest of us, having to go to work, school, the grocery store and attend social events have little chance of remaining intact.
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06 Mar 2020
06:37:17pm
re: Coronavirus

True, Cougar. The luxury of retirement somewhat offsets all the creaky joints and memory lapses, eh? But, Folks may be forced to stay home whether they want to or not.

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06 Mar 2020
11:07:13pm
re: Coronavirus

Oh dear! They even canceled ComicCom in Seattle and the Boy Scouts of America local council has suspended winter camp and group meetings through the end of March. Not to mention a local church where my wife works is cancelling Sunday services after a vote by the elders! Plus Amazon, Microsoft, and Google are recommending employees work from home rather than come to the office and the University of Washington is going to attempt to do all classes online rather than in classroom settings through the end of March. Whitworth University in Spokane, WA is recommending that students from Western Washington not go home over spring break.

This is being taken VERY seriously locally.

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Dialysis, damned if you do...dead if you don't

07 Mar 2020
03:21:07am
re: Coronavirus

In 2009, the H1N1 (Swine flu) pandemic swept across the world. Within a year and here in the US, the H1N1 virus had affected 60 million people, hospitalized over 250,000 people, and killed over 12,000 people. Worldwide the number of deaths from H1N1 (in the years 2009-2010) was estimated at over 200,000.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/2009-h1n1-pandemic.html

I do not recall the US media fear-mongering with the H1N1 like they are doing now with the current COVID-19 virus. I do not recall stock markets being wildly volatile. I do not recall people freaking out stock piling supplies. I do not recall the level of politicization that we are seeing today with the COVID-19.

What has changed in 10 years?
Don

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07 Mar 2020
06:14:26am
re: Coronavirus

I do not think it is all political. There are a lot of media outlets (political and non-political) that have to fill 24 hrs a day with something. The political ones retreat to their base audience corners and feed that itch. This happens no matter what - spin, counter spin. We see a lot of political hypocrisy these days.

When we have a snow event now unlike in years back, the local stations suspend network programming and just spend hours talking about traffic and road conditions, closings, local stories related to snow, how to drive in the snow, reminding people to not drive, etc. The technology allows remote reporting.

What supports this are stations secondary digital stations so the move network coverage to the sub channel to interrupt the main station. You have to manufacture something to keep those audience ratings which is more important than ever in this consolidated media company age. How many public service like stories on how to protect yourself from getting the flu do you need?

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Dialysis, damned if you do...dead if you don't

07 Mar 2020
07:58:16am
re: Coronavirus

Understood Al, but the H1N1 pandemic was only 10 years ago. In 2010 the internet was in full swing and streaming TV was also underway, so the demand for digital content was pretty high (although I would agree that the demand for content has probably increase since then).

I cannot find a single H1N1 Swine flu reference in any of the philatelic forums in that era yet they all have threads about the COVID-19 now.
Don

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07 Mar 2020
08:00:09am
re: Coronavirus

If someone has already stated this, I apologize but I'm just wondering why it takes something like this to get folks to wash their hands!

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07 Mar 2020
08:24:52am

Auctions - Approvals
re: Coronavirus

Jings!...Crivvens!...Help Ma Boab!

Whatever happened to the education system? It was hammered into us things like "Coughs and Sneezes Spreads Diseases!"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W728NGYhmmQ


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sR2X-6p_Y8U

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GWyzS9TJg9g

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07 Mar 2020
08:37:04am
re: Coronavirus

At the risk of opening a can of worms here,

I think it is suffice to say

'common sense' is our new "contradiction in terms" phrase;

It isn't common any more.


Thumbs Down

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07 Mar 2020
09:26:44am
re: Coronavirus

"
What has changed in 10 years?"



1. The people who should be providing responsible information giving views from "it's contained and going away" to "Pandemic that will change everything"
2. A massive political and foreign influenced social medium ripe with false info and divisiveness
3. A political system overcome by division and coming political events more interested in finding blame and preserving their positions
4. A news media both left & right running 24hrs/day grasping at whatever brings in viewers, ratings and ad revenues
5. A bloated bureaucracy that finds it difficult to be prepared or go from talk to action
6. 350 million people who don't know who they should trust or what to believe
7. An economy & market caught up in all the above

Bottom line - it is reaL, it will have an effect on many levels, it will pass and become just another historical event. In the meantime everyone needs do just do the basics for prevention until it either goes away or some "cure" is found
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07 Mar 2020
11:38:15am
re: Coronavirus

"Apparently, not that many people keep, say, three weeks' worth of toilet paper at home."



Yeah. Not everyone shops at Costco. Big Grin

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07 Mar 2020
11:57:44am
re: Coronavirus

We are in the age of vox pops, where people who really know little about a subject espouse their views on worldly matters from the information they gleaned from social media outlets or down the pub. Usually after someone has had to read it to them.
Very few actually take the time to research the subject before passing along the usually false information.

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07 Mar 2020
12:00:47pm
re: Coronavirus

"... What has changed in 10 years? ..."



Last time was the first time, and this time is the second time.

This sort of adaptive, learned response is what got us out of the caves.

Cheers,

/s/ ikeyPikey (who now knows to panic if he feels an earthquake on a beach)

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07 Mar 2020
05:01:41pm

Auctions
re: Coronavirus

Toilet paper...i remember the old montgomery ward catalog in the outhouse ..philb January 1, 1939 -??? Big Grin

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07 Mar 2020
05:45:47pm
re: Coronavirus

This worth a read. A journal from a Brit in Wuhan who was an early victim.

First hand journal:
First-British-victim-25-describes-coronavirus

Roy

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07 Mar 2020
10:41:56pm
re: Coronavirus

I live in Omaha; the nearby city of Fremont Ne will close all schools starting Monday for at least a week. a 35 year old woman who later tested positive attended an event at the High School there last weekend. I am seeing reports of possible cases in the Omaha schools. We think we will need to hunker down starting any day now.

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07 Mar 2020
11:41:58pm
re: Coronavirus

I guess the media always needs a story, but we shouldn't play down the danger of this coronavirus until we are sure of our facts. So far the mainstream media and most governments have been pretty good at supplying facts. It seems the two things we should be looking at is how contagious it is and what is the morality rate. In the worse case it would be highly contagious with a high mortality rate. I will hold off making any decisions until I know these.

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08 Mar 2020
10:31:14am

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re: Coronavirus

I really did not want to add to the conversation...but i am with you Danny!Happy

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08 Mar 2020
12:53:01pm
re: Coronavirus

"... how contagious it is and what is the mor(t)ality rate. In the worse case it would be highly contagious with a high mortality rate. I will hold off making any decisions until I know these ..."



I'm not sure what decisions I would make after I knew those numbers.

The basic 'choices' - attend/not today's postcard club meeting, for example - tend to get driven by other factors, such as whether/not I've been getting out of the house lately (largely 'yes') and whether/not I got an uninterrupted night's sleep last night (the usual 'no').

Stockpiling consumables requires some sense of "for how long" and, perversely, the more severe the pandemic, the shorter the run ... but the greater the urge to stockpile.

Our organizing principle is to try and keep this thing away from my aging-in-place parent, but the aide takes mass transit to/from her other home health care gig (and her home), and the kid takes mass transit to/from nursing school (with its clinical rotations), and it is not clear that restricting either of them to hour-long exposures to one Uber/Lyft driver after another would be a materially safer choice than our now-frequently-wiped-down-and-sprayed subway cars, while blowing off the aide (who needs the work, and would be exposed to new people) and/or blowing off a year of nursing school (for the kid to stay home) would be a good thing for the aide or the kid or the aging-in-place parent.

Moreover, the (apparent) long symptom-free-yet-contagious period and (apparent) airborne transmission make it seem like we're better off resigning ourselves to exposure, while the dose-makes-the-poison nature of the illness (otherwise healthy doctors & nurses get sick!) encourage us to trim our least-necessary exposures, wash our hands, etc.

But none of all that is based on hard statistical data about "how contagious it is and what is the mor(t)ality rate".

Cheers,

/s/ ikeyPikey
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cdj1122
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Silence in the face of adversity is the father of complicity and collusion, the first cousins of conspiracy..

08 Mar 2020
02:51:27pm
re: Coronavirus

I was going to post " .... What has changed in 10 years?, ...." ,
but others have covered most of the obvious things. It just seems
fortuitous that Congress never got around to cutting the CDC funding
that was proposed. Score a goal for putting things off till later
or something.
It seems that they need every trained scientist they can keep standing.

Oh, and here is a cheery note, just for the record, in 1918 the
"Spanish Flu" started in the springtime and then did taper off in
the sunshine and heat of the summer, but as one source states;
"It came back with a vengeance in the Fall."
Just what I needed to know to cheer me up.
While I am not in as bad a shape as those on Dialysis, at my age
and with my existing complications, I have just gone over my Will,
my Living Will, and the Health Care Surrogate document just in case.
Others ought to consider doing the same.
I suppose I should be contrite about the gallows humor, but if this
sickness does spread as predicted, it is just being realistic.
Charlie

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Snick1946
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10 Mar 2020
02:25:32pm
re: Coronavirus

This may apply to other people: now is not a good time to order anything that is to be shipped from outside the US. I've been tracking a shipment through DHL from Germany, it has been sitting in Germany since 2-28. I assume it'd be worse for Italy.

It's from Schaubek in Leipzig, Germany so far has not been highly affected but I suspect flights have been reduced so cargo space is more scarce.

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ikeyPikey
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10 Mar 2020
03:27:38pm
re: Coronavirus

'
Please allow me to suggest that you will not be able to read this interview and claim that you did not learn three new things that are relevant to your own situation.

What the WHO learned about Covid-19 in China

Cheers,

/s/ ikeyPikey

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vinman
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10 Mar 2020
04:03:00pm
re: Coronavirus

ikey,
Great article,
I learned quite a bit of new information. I'm sticking with the basics,
Panic and hysteria are not appropriate.
Wash your hands.
If you are sick with cold or flu symptoms call your doctor and get tested if he/she advises.

Vince

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sheepshanks
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10 Mar 2020
04:20:35pm
re: Coronavirus

Vinman, fine to say get tested but what about all those who do not have the finance or health cover to be able to afford the testing.
This is where the government should step in and cover the cost without question. I'm sure that the brains in the health departments can calculate an overall cost per test, which would be paid to the testing centres on production of a patient listing with relevant security numbers. This would enable random checking to ensure honesty of the testing facilities ( would they tell untruths, not us guv).
ps Edit to add I find it strange that they still seem unable to tell us how long the virus can survive outside of the body.

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sheepshanks
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10 Mar 2020
04:40:35pm
re: Coronavirus

OK this from a site called Stackexchange,
I've checked the FactCheck.org article on the incident:

All COVID-19 tests in the US are conducted by two agencies: The New York State Department of Public Health, and the Center for Disease Control and Prevention.
Neither organization charges for the test.

You (and/or your insurance) will have to pay for emergency room services if you go to the ER, but you (or your insurance) won't be billed for the COVID-19 test itself.

EDIT, even this seems to be contradicted, here is a further response on the same site.

"All COVID-19 tests in the US are conducted by two agencies: The New York State Department of Public Health, and the Center for Disease Control and Prevention." — This is no longer the case. A number of state health department labs perform tests now (see, for instance Nebraska, which reports the number of tests they have performed) and commercial labs Quest and LabCorp are beginning testing as well. – Zach Lipton yesterday

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Dakota
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10 Mar 2020
05:16:31pm

Auctions
re: Coronavirus

Does anyone know if US Customs is holding packages from Europe? An envelope of stamps arrived at Customs on February 21 and is just sitting at Customs. This envelope is from Estonia.

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angore
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Collector, Moderator

10 Mar 2020
05:32:11pm
re: Coronavirus

The article covered a lot of aspects besides washing hands. It was a quick proactive response and not reactive approach. Like any event, some play it safe and others do not and often risk others.

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10 Mar 2020
06:43:23pm

Auctions - Approvals
re: Coronavirus

"Does anyone know if US Customs is holding packages from Europe? An envelope of stamps arrived at Customs on February 21 and is just sitting at Customs. This envelope is from Estonia."



If the envelope is held at Customs, it is probably for a different reason. Three weeks ago, the world considered Corona / Covid-19 as something terrible happening in China and there were no actions to prevent the spread of the virus in the rest of the world. Perhaps there were, but they were not visible...
Anyway, Estonia was not a hotbed of the virus like Italy and still isn't, as far as I know. Apart from that, the virus is spread from human to human. If it lands on a letter or a packet it may survive for 24 hours max and then it is no longer active. That's why all the containment plans focus on quarantine of people, not of materials.

Jan-Simon

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Jansimon
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10 Mar 2020
07:25:17pm

Auctions - Approvals
re: Coronavirus

I do not know how the situation is today, but a few days ago, the US government announced that 1.5 million tests were available. That may sound a lot, but that means only 750,000 people can be tested, which is less than 1% of the population. Apart from that, most states do not have the capacity to do mass tests. They must scale up considerably in order to be able to deal with the challenges ahead.

Most countries have similar problems. Noone is really prepared.

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10 Mar 2020
07:37:49pm
re: Coronavirus

The situation is different today (in The U.S.). More kits are available. More are being manufactured as we post about the virus. Not every American needs to be tested. The test in intended for those who may have been exposed or those who are experiencing symptoms of cold or flu.

Vince

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10 Mar 2020
07:43:15pm
re: Coronavirus

'
This what transparency and an emphasis on public health looks like:

- the Israel Ministry of Health builds a timeline for each person who tests positive for exposure to the coronavirus, and

- the Israel Ministry of Health publishes that patient's timeline on their website, so that

- any person can quickly determine if they crossed paths with that infected person (oy!) or did not (phew!).

the Israel Ministry of Health timeline for Patient #29

Q/ Did you notice the granularity of that data ?

Yes, government is more 'distributed' in the USA - Texas has 254 counties, for example - but a motivated federal agency (or suitable NGO) could put together a template for this data so that agencies doing contract tracing could upload their data, enabling people to self-report their exposure to an infectee ... or self-relax.

{...}

Cheers,

/s/ ikeyPikey (who has removed an absolutely apolitical comparison of the relative efforts of the American v Israeli governments (available by PM) which - unlike some people - did not use words like "fake", "lies", or "hoax")

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Dialysis, damned if you do...dead if you don't

10 Mar 2020
07:51:01pm
re: Coronavirus

Mods should remove the political posts.
Don

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10 Mar 2020
08:11:48pm
re: Coronavirus

51Studebaker...I agree wholehearterly... Any political posts should be deleted immediately. Regarding the virus, the two opposing political parties will attack each other regardless of the other sides actions or inactions. We signed off on over 8 billion to combat the virus and have been moving heaven and earth to do what ever can be done.

As I type this, I am in ground zero of the hot zone. I am in the subway tube headed out of downtown San Francisco jam packed against other people.

Your government is doing everything it possibly can. Follow the directions of the apolitical, nonpartisan scientific experts. Wash your hands and dont touch your face.


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APS #156650

11 Mar 2020
12:24:53am
re: Coronavirus

“Your Government is doing everything it possibly can.”

Ummmm not to pick nits, but isn’t that a political opinion?

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11 Mar 2020
12:35:40am
re: Coronavirus

No. I'm listening to Fauci not Trump.

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11 Mar 2020
01:39:02am
re: Coronavirus

It is already too late.

The virus has spread too widely in the United States to now stop it. We had our chance about a month ago, but it would have required a complete shut-down of anyone entering the United States from outside the country, very rigorous testing and a complete tracking of any person testing positive to see who they may have contacted.

The choice was instead made to keep the economy running along without disruption. This is the same decision most countries made and are still making.

This virus spreads much more easily than the flu. A person with the flu spreads that virus on average to about 1.25 other people. Over 20 transmissions about 20 thousand or so people will be infected. One person with the Covid-19 virus on average will spread the virus to somewhere around 5 other people (the figures given vary but all are much higher than the flu). With 20 transmissions of the Covid-19 virus, about 330 billion people will be infected. Since there are only about 7 billion people on earth, good luck in evading this bugger.

The Covid-19 virus can remain infectious on hard surfaces for up to 9 days under the right conditions (the right temperature and humidity and lack of sunlight). It can spread by both droplet and by aerosol. And a person who is not showing symptoms can spread the virus without knowing they are. This is much different than most virus-caused diseases that only are infectious once symptoms being to present. It also has a fatality rate of about 3.4% (WHO figures) which compares to a fatality rate from the flu of about 0.1%. A very nasty little bugger that makes me wonder if this was cooked up in a lab somewhere.

With about 7 billion people on the planet and assuming about 60% infection of the population and a 3.4% death rate, you are looking at 140 million deaths worldwide. But this assumes that everyone will have access to good medical care.

Unlike other natural disasters (hurricanes, earthquakes, floods, etc.) that strike at the infrastructure and cause problems with water, electricity and food supplies, this one will strike at the medical infrastructure. The number of people infected is doubling about every four to five days where no quarantine has been imposed. Where some communities in the United States are presently starting to see a quick rise in cases, within about two weeks or less there will be more people presenting with severe pneumonia than what the hospitals can handle. Then hard decisions will need to be made who will be treated and who will be left untreated and to handle their illness on their own.

If you happened to see some of the videos that were coming out of Wuhan before China completely clamped down on any information coming out of that area, it was horrifying. The hospitals were completely overwhelmed. Crematoria workers said that two-thirds of the dead were being picked up at their homes rather than from hospitals; the hospitals sent them home because they couldn't handle them or people were afraid to go to the hospital because of fear of becoming infected with the Covid-19 virus. If you had a heart attack or other serious condition that would need immediate attention, forget about it as there was no one to help you. This is the condition that northern Italy is now facing. And a similar condition could be facing parts of the United States in about ten days.

The only way to stop this from happening is a complete and thorough quarantine. It has to happen now or else the conditions in Wuhan and northern Italy will be here before you know it. I don't think that a quarantine will occur until it is too late because all politicians don't want to make that choice; it interferes with the economy too much and disrupts everyone's lives too much. Don't want the voters made at me, don't you know. Only when the situation becomes dire will the quarantine occur and by then it will be too late for many people who will be needing medical care. It doesn't make any difference which political party is running the show, the results would have been the same.

I see most people in complete denial. What happened in Wuhan can and will happen here. It is the same virus and we are the same species. Wuhan apparently had a pretty good medical infrastructure and northern Italy certainly does. Wuhan broke under the strain and the medical infrastructure in northern Italy appears to be in very dire condition. But people in this country are more worried about not stopping the NCAA basketball tournament, other sporting events, and just making things inconvenient in their life.

So I do not see good things coming our way in the next few months. I am not worried about water, electricity or sewer service. I am stocked up on food (the first time I have ever done this). And toilet paper. Tomorrow I am going to check with my pharmacy to see if they can refill my prescriptions ahead of time; I presently have about two months left on my three-month prescriptions, but if I can get them refilled, I am going to do so.

There is a lot of good information (meaning correct) and useful information coming out on this. Unfortunately, our media and politicians are not the ones providing this information. Check out my previous post on this thread to links to a couple of YouTube posters, both medically trained professionals, that have been presenting very good information on this topic.

Boy, do I hope I am wrong about this. But my eyes don't lie and my scientific training tells me to accept what I see and to not ignore it. I wouldn't mind being sarcastically called a prepper a couple of months from now, but that is not what I see coming.

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Collector, Moderator

11 Mar 2020
07:00:34am
re: Coronavirus

People assessing a government's response is an opinion (political or otherwise) as they are not expert to judge the response and even "experts" disagree.

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Oldmanemu

11 Mar 2020
07:56:49am
re: Coronavirus

Time to assign this thread to the Steam Room. It's depressing enough to read the click bait on news services. I don't like the way this issue is invading a good stamp forum.

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Neddie Seagoon from The Telegoons

11 Mar 2020
10:46:33am

Auctions - Approvals
re: Coronavirus


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nR0lOtdvqyg

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11 Mar 2020
11:04:43am
re: Coronavirus

Once upon a time - like, say, three days ago - I had the same dire outlook as okstamps.

But the WHO interview reminds me that

- epidemics are not uniform,

- government reactions to local outbreaks matter,

- the behavior of individuals matter, and

- anything that slows the spread of the disease allows time for vaccines & treatments to come online, while it reduces the deadly overflow at hospitals, etc.

What the WHO learned about Covid-19 in China

Cheers,

/s/ ikeyPikey (who certifies, under penalty of perjury, that he has not forced anyone to click into this thread)

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11 Mar 2020
11:05:12am

Auctions - Approvals
re: Coronavirus

Now we need one with Frazer as well Big Grin

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angore
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Collector, Moderator

11 Mar 2020
11:33:47am
re: Coronavirus

I just got back from the doctor's office for a planned checkup at a fairly large practice.

What was different?
1. Asked questions related to flu like symptoms and travels overseas first
2. Purell everywhere, masks on requests
3. Admins logging in patients wore gloves. People who had to fill out forms were given gloves
4. A few people had masks, saw none on staff
5. Asked if I could get a corona virus test - answer: No, I would have to contact state health office. NC state has test kits on back order per State due to issue with the kits. LabCorp supposedly has kits.
6. Did not see/hear anyone coughing, etc.

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keesindy
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11 Mar 2020
11:34:46am
re: Coronavirus

What a waste of time this thread has become. Long diatribes that highlight the most negative and questionable information that can be found and others presenting "information" regarding the U.S. test kits without understanding the distinctions between the public and private aspects of the situation. Elsewhere, others talk about the phase three (human) testing of new vaccine candidates as though they understand the process and why it can take 12-18 months. Spoiler alert: the drug companies are repeatedly sued when their approved products are blamed for causing alleged unexpected side effects, etc. The litigious nature of Americans has as much to do with the time it takes to approve new drugs as anything.

I'm probably as concerned as anyone here regarding the Wuhan virus. My wife has won the lottery when it comes to having ALL of the major pre-existing conditions that are likely to cause a severe reaction to the virus. Ironically, she has been involved in patient management in drug studies and has been responsible for setting up phase three studies for new cancer compounds. So we're aware of the importance of the studies and the extraordinary costs incurred in developing those compounds. Then there is the time it takes to get multiple sites set up with patient enrollment to do the studies and then navigate the FDA requirements and coordinate with the physicians and their administrators and legal staff as well as all the groups (including legal) within the pharmaceutical companies themselves that play a role in getting new drug compounds approved. No one in that process wants to take shortcuts or make mistakes. Lives depend on everyone doing their jobs to the best of their ability. Too many politicians and too many posters to this thread (and elsewhere online) don't understand the situation well enough to be commenting on it! As Fauci and Azar have pointed out, we're dealing with the equivalent of the "fog of war." Everyone needs to step back, take a deep breath and take personal responsibility by following the general precautions for avoiding infections. We've learned to live with the various strains of the flu that infect millions and kill thousands each and every year. We'll learn to live with this new virus if it too becomes yet another in the long list of health issues we all must deal with. Be responsible and be safe!

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Neddie Seagoon from The Telegoons

11 Mar 2020
12:42:14pm

Auctions - Approvals
re: Coronavirus

as requested:-

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sxqvwkmTNy8

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Silence in the face of adversity is the father of complicity and collusion, the first cousins of conspiracy..

11 Mar 2020
02:07:18pm
re: Coronavirus

"negative aspects ?"

That sort of implies that there are countervailing reasonably positive aspects. About the only one I can imagine is the possibility the growing world population may pause a bit. Otherwise perhaps we should close our eyes, put a paper bag over our heads and hope for the best. Now that I think about it, noting that rubbing one's eyes appears to be a common entry point for the virus, using a paper bag might just help. preferably one with the name of some upscale store emblazoned in fashionably bright colors, of course.

Maybe having this house alone out on the Texas Tundra might not be such a bad idea either. If I do not run out of hinges, I have enough stamps to stay secluded and busy for a year or more.


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11 Mar 2020
03:13:01pm

Approvals
re: Coronavirus

I think the main question here is if the corona virus is affecting our stamp collecting in any perceivable way. Are we buying less stamps in fear we might need money for hand sanitizer which went from $3/bottle to $184? Are we having less time for stamps for whatever virus-related reason?

I am not affected as of yet. Happy stamp collecting as usual.

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APS Life Member

11 Mar 2020
03:22:49pm
re: Coronavirus

As the OP on this... Please don't pull this thread. It may be a tall order but we're all adults and ought to be able to discuss this without political jabs. I think there have been an equal number of them on here from both sides of the divide.

As Cougar said, the intent was to have a forum to discuss how this impacts collecting.

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APS #156650

11 Mar 2020
03:38:51pm
re: Coronavirus

This week’s edition of the Economist just arrived and they have, as per their usual high journalistic standards, a good article comparing how different countries are dealing with Covid19. They cited Singapore as being particularly well prepared. After the SARS scare, Singapore created a thorough plan for dealing with any future epidemics and it is paying off for them.

There is also a graph showing how the flow of tourism into certain areas does not align with the numbers of cases that you would expect to see. Raises many interesting questions about the accuracy of the reported numbers of cases.

Another point they mention is that most medical masks are manufactured in China. It might behoove the USA to encourage making some of these critical supplies domestically in the future.

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Harvey

I think, therefore I am - I think!

11 Mar 2020
03:44:33pm
re: Coronavirus

I live near Halifax in Nova Scotia and in the Summer and Fall our area depends on getting tourist money from the many cruise ships that stop here. They are discussing now about cancelling that for the Summer, or whether people will actually even take cruises. I imagine most coastal cities around the world are discussing the same things. It should make for a very interesting tourist season everywhere. They've already cancelled all international school trips. How about large sporting events around the world?

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Neddie Seagoon from The Telegoons

11 Mar 2020
04:44:59pm

Auctions - Approvals
re: Coronavirus

" How about large sporting events around the world?"



Its already happening. Some countries say there is to be no gatherings above 1000 people and some no gatherings above 500 people. Some European soccer games are to be played behind closed doors ie No Fans, No crowd, No spectators!
The Six Nations Rugby Tournament has already cancelled matches between England and Italy, the Ireland France game is also cancelled.
Tonights soccer match between Manchester City and Arsenal has been cancelled.

Italy has more or less shut down. I'm holding on to a buyers stamps as he is in Milan one of the worst hit areas. (I think some of the stamp collectors in self isolation are that bored sitting at home that they are buying more stamps than normal through ebay, delcampe etc)

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ikeyPikey
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11 Mar 2020
05:23:17pm
re: Coronavirus

"... I just got back from the doctor's office for a planned checkup at a fairly large practice ..."



My annual checkup was one week ago, at a small office.

The receptionist sneezed on my urine sample.

"... Spoiler alert: the drug companies are repeatedly sued when their approved products are blamed for causing alleged unexpected side effects, etc ..."



De-Spoiler Alert: Congress will, with the stroke of a pen, exempt the drug manufacturers from Covid-19 liabilities. Can't be done? Ask the gun manufacturers.

Similarly, with another stroke of the Congressional pen, clinical trials can be replaced with experiential data from China, where generic drugs are already being deployed, and Covid-19-specific vaccines will be deployed in about three months.

"... I think the main question here is if the corona virus is affecting our stamp collecting in any perceivable way ..."



I skipped last weekend's meeting of the Metropolitan Postcard Club, unlike the forty collectors over forty who attended ... and had a good time without me.

The next two lectures at the Collector's Club of New York (18/March and 01/April) have been postponed.

"... I live near Halifax in Nova Scotia and in the Summer and Fall our area depends on getting tourist money from the many cruise ships that stop here ..."



The 1918 Spanish Flu did not sink Cunard Lines.

Can't speak to 2020, but 2021 will probably be just fine. As Professor Galloway has pointed-out, cruises already speak to folks who are minimizing their contacts with surprises & foreign nationals to begin with.

"... most medical masks are manufactured in China ..."



Color me astonished that a country that went to war over WMD - remember Colin Powell showing photographs of the mobile bio-weapon van? - has done zip to stockpile the easily stockpiled supplies that would be needed in such an event.

Quick! Somebody say something nice about the Red Cross.

Cheers,

/s/ ikeyPikey
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vinman
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11 Mar 2020
07:17:15pm
re: Coronavirus

Due to the Coronavirus The Philatelic Gathering is cancelled this month. We meet in West Chester, Pa. Our average age is above 60.
So far this is not affecting me or my family. If necessary my wife can work from home.
I'm spending a few days at the new home, lots of cleaning to get to before the movers bring our furniture. I'll probably take a walk over to the APS tomorrow and check out their sales department and library.
I'll let you know what precautions they are planning.

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11 Mar 2020
08:10:14pm
re: Coronavirus

My husband and I spent a few hours in the emergency room at a large, well respected hospital here. A few observations

Maybe 5 to 10 percent of the nurses wore masks.I did not see even 1 doctor with a mask on. Our doctor introduced himself, shook hands and discussed what they were going to look for and the procedurec used.

Almost all doctors and nurses used scrub sinks rather than the wall mounted hand sanitizers. I asked why and was told that soap and water is MUCH better at getting rid of germs than hand sanitizer.

In other words, no real changes yet.

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Silence in the face of adversity is the father of complicity and collusion, the first cousins of conspiracy..

11 Mar 2020
08:33:17pm
re: Coronavirus

Good News for stamp auction addicts.
Since DOCTOR WHO and CDC have indicated
that the virus does not survive on
inanimate objects for more than three
days, and one somewhat unsubstantiated
rumor suggest that nine days is safe
enough, our USPS, in an abundance of
caution had announced that no mail
delivery will be sped up faster than
one fortnight from the cancellation
date for any regular mail item. Since
Priority and Express customers already
pay a special fee such mail will be
held to the standard three week schedule.
This will surely kill any chance of
passing the infection between the often
apparently inanimate postal workers.
Also highway repair crews engaged in
moving small potholes from side lanes
to center lanes will not be able to
remain at home due to infection exposure
unless they can demonstrate a body
temperature of at least ninety-six
degrees. They will be issued new IDs
stamped "CIW" (Certified Inanimate Workers.)

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".... You may think you understood what you thought I said, but I'm not sure you realize that what you think you heard is not what I thought I meant. .... "
sheepshanks
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11 Mar 2020
09:28:27pm
re: Coronavirus

Well I guess anyone in the States waiting on letters/packages from Europe will, with the latest news, have another month before they arrive.

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cdj1122
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Silence in the face of adversity is the father of complicity and collusion, the first cousins of conspiracy..

11 Mar 2020
11:36:18pm
re: Coronavirus

Yes, see, a built in safety factor, unless the mail deliverer
wipes his, or her, nose just before putting the mail in the
mail slot. I suppose a short ride around in a circle in the
microwave on the reheat cycle would clean the still sealed
envelope and its contents.
I sure hope the Queen does not mind.

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Jansimon
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12 Mar 2020
05:46:37am

Auctions - Approvals
re: Coronavirus

"The 1918 Spanish Flu did not sink Cunard Lines."



While that is 100% true, the size of the tourism industry in 1918 cannot be compared to that in 2020... Compared to 100 years ago, the number of people depending for their income on tourism is much higher.

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www.pagowirense.nl/stamps/
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APS #156650

12 Mar 2020
07:57:36am
re: Coronavirus

I feel sorry for middle income families who saved up to take the kids to Disney and Universal. They have purchased their tickets - do they cancel or risk it? The drop in attendance at the parks will probably taper off as many of these folks who committed will still go. I wonder at what point the parks will choose to close.

We are also entering Spring Break week - peak tourist time for the entire year. I wonder if the college students opt to stay away.

Tourism is Florida’s primary industry and a huge income source for taxes. We don’t have a state income tax, but we do have high taxes on hotels and restaurants to compensate.

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"Just one more small collection, hun, really! LoL "
DaveSheridan
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12 Mar 2020
08:15:18am
re: Coronavirus

The biggest threat to everyone today is the mobility of the human race. 90+% of the world's population could hop on a plane tomorrow and go anywhere. Keeping track of who they meet and what they touch is impossible.

I watched Liverpool lose to Atletico Madrid today. No handshakes, but elbow bumps between players and officials.

Self-isolation (ie: becoming a hermit) is the most logical response at this time

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www.globalphilately.com
Harvey

I think, therefore I am - I think!

12 Mar 2020
08:55:52am
re: Coronavirus

I'm a big NBA fan and turned on the computer a few minutes ago only to learn that the season was suspended - a player tested positive for corona virus. With all the players and fans in the arenas that could be really serious. I wonder what the MLB and NHL are going to do. If I remember right there was a Stanley Cup final between Seattle and Montreal cut short in 1919 due to the Spanish Flu. All us sports fans are going to have a tough year! By the way, I think the NBA is doing what they have to do and I would bet the next step is cancelling the Stanley cup and then the MLB season. I hope this ends soon!!!

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Benque

12 Mar 2020
10:45:18am
re: Coronavirus

Harvey, you can remember 1919?!?
Wow, philately really is a hobby for old-timers!

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Jansimon
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12 Mar 2020
11:05:23am

Auctions - Approvals
re: Coronavirus

Over here in the Netherlands new mitigation measures have been announced. Work from home if you can, stay at home if you do not feel 100%, all meetings of more than 100 people are cancelled, which includes museums.
I suppose that means more time for the stamps...

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www.pagowirense.nl/stamps/
Greaden

12 Mar 2020
11:25:40am
re: Coronavirus

While lying low at home, I should start trading my extra rolls of toilet paper for the stamps of Basel, Geneva, and Zürich.

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APS Life Member

12 Mar 2020
11:58:18am
re: Coronavirus

Following all the developments in the past several hours we've decided the time has come to hunker down. I'm past 60, no underlying issues my wife is several years younger but we're just not going too chance this. We have a 24 year old son living with us he works at a Federal job and plans to tele commute starting next week. We ought to be able to buy groceries on line, I can still get out and go walking so long as I don't stop and talk to anyone. Our son came home last night with four packages of TP, so we are truly hunkered now.

I can get caught up now on stamp projects. Happy

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angore
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Collector, Moderator

12 Mar 2020
01:24:27pm
re: Coronavirus

I got an email from my Doctor's office that informed anyone with a cold or flu to call first. Do not go to the office.

The widespread impacts are unprecedented in recent history.

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"Stamp Collecting is a many splendored thing"
ikeyPikey
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12 Mar 2020
01:46:26pm
re: Coronavirus

"The 1918 Spanish Flu did not sink Cunard Lines."



"...While that is 100% true, the size of the tourism industry ..."



I have thought more about this, and decided that my delightful factoid is irrelevant because - the corollary to your point - ocean liners were an essential means of transportation, so the limited options helped the industry keep going.

I'm gonna stick with my other factoid - that the 1918 flu (and decades of seasonal polio scares) did not shut down Coney Island - and wait patiently for someone to sink that one, too.

Cheers,

/s/ ikeyPikey

Image Not Found

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APS #156650

12 Mar 2020
02:33:45pm
re: Coronavirus

A little idea of mine - replace your bathroom hand towel with a pile of washcloths. Everyone who washes their hands gets a clean mini towel. White is best as you can bleach the dirty towels.

Also - I am spraying and wiping down doorknobs and other frequently touched surfaces with diluted bleach water. Anything touched by multiple hands should be disinfected.

Anyone else have little tips to share?

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Collector, Moderator

12 Mar 2020
02:57:43pm
re: Coronavirus

I know someone who just puts a roll of paper towels in the bathrooms for people to use.

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12 Mar 2020
04:20:52pm
re: Coronavirus

We took our own plastic gloves to the shops today only to find that every place had both gloves and hand sanitizer and wipes on a table at the entrance !! I thought that was pretty organized !
The Grandson was due to come over and stay tonight but developed a cough so didn't come. Now we may cancel the Shabat dinner for tomorrow.

On a more grand scale, I have had to cancel my visit to 'London 2020' International Stamp Exhibition (If it still goes ahead, nor certain) because of current restrictions here in Israel. Massive disappointment which may be tempered if they plan not to go ahead with it at this time.
The world is in an odd place is it not !!

Londonbus1

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ikeyPikey
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12 Mar 2020
04:22:11pm
re: Coronavirus

"... I am spraying and wiping down doorknobs and other frequently touched surfaces ..."



Years ago, I had the bright idea to point-out to our home health care aide that the handles on the walker were the filthiest surface in the apartment. Her eyes popped out of her head - that insight never came up in training - and she's been diligent about wiping-down the walker handles every day.

Cheers,

/s/ ikeyPikey
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APS Life Member

12 Mar 2020
04:46:04pm
re: Coronavirus

Just saw on CNN: The NCAA is cancelling March Madness this year. I will not be surprised to hear that the NHL cancels the rest of their season. I'd bet MLB will at the least postpone the season opening, with possibly playing a shortened season starting later.

Earlier there was a rumor making the rounds that a dealer at a major Midwest Stamp show had come own with it but that proved not to be. I fully expect to start seeing shows cancelled as local communities clamp down on this stuff.

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philatelia
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APS #156650

13 Mar 2020
07:06:33am
re: Coronavirus

Good Advice from a video on the BBC ...

Behave like you already have the virus'
An infectious disease expert says people shouldn't just try to avoid getting coronavirus - instead, they should act as though they already have the virus and want to avoid passing it on.

Professor Graham Medley, from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM), said this during an interview with BBC Newsnight last night when asked if there was a "simple message" he could give the public.

His response was: "Most people have a fear of acquiring the virus, but I think a good way of doing it is to imagine that you do have the virus, and change your behaviour so that you're not transmitting it.

"Don't think about changing your behaviour so you won't get it. Think about changing your behaviour so you don't give it to somebody else."

In the interview, Prof Medley also discussed how herd immunity can help protect the population, and how vulnerable people can be protected.

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Neddie Seagoon from The Telegoons

13 Mar 2020
08:12:11am

Auctions - Approvals
re: Coronavirus

Just watching the European Union President giving a speech on what member states should do. The EU will set up a committee of experts to advise them. They promise that that they will do everything required.

However every country must remain unified and stick to the European Rules that are current or what the EU decides during this crises.

The question remains "Are you telling me that the billions of Euro's that they have had over the years that NOTHING was done to prepare for any type of pandemic?"

Leaders? I wouldn't trust them to run a bath.

Keep Safe.

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"StayAlert.......Control The Virus.......Save Lives."
sheepshanks
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13 Mar 2020
10:37:36am
re: Coronavirus

Ian, hopefully they will video conference to help stop the spread of the virus.

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Silence in the face of adversity is the father of complicity and collusion, the first cousins of conspiracy..

13 Mar 2020
12:55:16pm
re: Coronavirus

".... The world is in an odd place is it not !!...."

Just for you Mike.

Curious Planet

Hurricanes, Tornadoes, Earthquakes,
Floods, Fires and Drought,
Pestilence, Pogroms and Wars,
What a curious planet we dwell upon,
Providing the wonders of birth,
The cornucopia of health and wealth,
Yet, apparently hell bent,
On destroying it all,
In a constant series of disasters,
That never cease, their Conga line,
Endlessly arriving, suddenly,
And wreaking their horrors,
Departing in an unfathomable way,
Renewing the very life,
They set out to eliminate.
What a curious planet, indeed.


©Charlie Jensen 2018

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FlyinLo

13 Mar 2020
02:55:54pm
re: Coronavirus

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Dialysis, damned if you do...dead if you don't

13 Mar 2020
04:40:21pm
re: Coronavirus

I am a bit astounded that it is news that we should have good hygiene and wash our hands. The fact that we are now seeing news stories about airlines actually cleaning the planes, which should be standard procedure on every day of the week, is a sad commentary.

As a person who has been immunocompromised for the last 6 years, I have had to take extraordinary precautions over this time. I have 5 sets of ‘medical clothes’ that I wear exclusively at all medical appointments. When I come home the 4 times a week that I have medical procedures, I strip off my clothes and shoes in the garage before entering the house. I carry a backpack full of masks, gloves, and sanitizer wipes everywhere I go.

Studies show that we touch our face an average of 23 times per hour. No matter how hard I tried I could not seem to change this behavior for myself. So instead I decided to approach this issue by keeping my hands as clean as I could. Over the last 6 year, my hands have been perpetually dried out due to the 30-40 times a day that I use hand sanitizers. (By the way if you ever need to start your fireplace or a bush pile, hand sanitizer makes a great fire starter. There is that much alcohol in it!) These behaviors might sound a bit extreme, but I managed to stay alive and not get any secondary infections that those around me succumbed to.
Don

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APS #213005

13 Mar 2020
09:19:22pm
re: Coronavirus

I think we should move this thread over to

"Off-Topic"


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Silence in the face of adversity is the father of complicity and collusion, the first cousins of conspiracy..

13 Mar 2020
09:31:53pm
re: Coronavirus

" ....These behaviors might sound a bit extreme, but I managed to stay alive and not get any secondary infections that those around me succumbed to....."

No Don, in your situation the behavior is far from extreme. Keep it up as long as you can.

Normally, I believe that people wash their hands when they have done something that obviously involves them possibly having been soiled, and our bodies develop healthy defense mechanisms for the normal bacteria they live with.
I read a study years ago that seemed to indicate that those who are overly worried about such things (germs) and try to totally avoid contact, become more susceptible to harm from otherwise symbiotic bacteria that actually protects somewhat from strains foreign (to them) bacterial infestation. At least that was the theory.
An example was given of parents who are obsessive about protecting their children from every and any germ imaginable. As a child grows and fights off biological infections it often naturally develops immunities from further infections. The child who does not get the opportunity to do so naturally can be subject to further biological attacks as they never were allowed to develop those immunities.
Such immunities are exactly what is meant when someone with Don's health problems is said to have compromised immunity systems.

So right now when the nation is being attacked by a new and vicious viral bacteria, wash frequently and regularly. Yesterday when I went to the Amarillo VAMC to see the regular PCP for the annual check-up, I wore "rubber" gloves and interestingly was asked by more than one person why, or, if I had a cold or something. "No, (silly, I thought.) hospitals are full of sick people !" and for the duration I would do the same thing. No need to bring home any new strange exotic pets.

Sorry, but I just had to return and edit some of the typos and defeat the "Spellcheck app" which apparently insisted replacing "immunities" with "immensities."






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StampWrangler
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14 Mar 2020
12:10:14am
re: Coronavirus

"Anyone else have little tips to share? "



I sanitize my cell phone a couple times a day - just wipe a little sanitizer over front and back. It's probably one of the most-handled items for many of us.

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angore
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Collector, Moderator

14 Mar 2020
05:45:53am
re: Coronavirus

Moved to Off Topic since devoid of any philatelic content.

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BrightonPete

14 Mar 2020
08:47:18am
re: Coronavirus

It took a few days here, but yesterday the local grocery stores were cleaned out of toilet paper! There was even a fight at No Frills for some! I'd be more concerned getting a small stockpile of dry & canned goods.

I went to Ottawa on Thursday by train. Business class car only had ½ a dozen or so people in it. Everything seemed normal in the capital. Only a couple people wearing paper masks, and one guy with a monster blue, orange and green plastic thing covering cheek to cheek, nose to mouth. But his eyes were still unprotected.

Hopefully, like Trump says, it will go away once the weather warms up Hurry Up

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APS #213005

14 Mar 2020
09:21:46am
re: Coronavirus

Local stamp show scheduled for today cancelled, as was another upcoming one

for the 28th and 29th of this month.


Very bummed to also report the cancellation of the Reba concert that was coming

to Grand Rapids in May! My awesome wife gifted me with tickets for the show

at Christmas. I just told her last night to apply for a refund today.



May seems quite a ways away from now....seems odd to me to cancel that far out,

but I'm no expert....I don't think ANYone is, really, in situations like this.


My daughter works for Meijer Corporate;

They have been sent home for the next 3 weeks to work from home.

Local schools have closed for 3 weeks and are discussing the possibility of remaining closed for the remaining school year!

Panic sure makes people do unusual things.......


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14 Mar 2020
10:21:26am
re: Coronavirus

"... Amazon pulled his items and thousands of other listings for sanitizer, wipes and face masks. The company suspended some of the sellers behind the listings and warned many others that if they kept running up prices, they’d lose their accounts. EBay soon followed with even stricter measures, prohibiting any U.S. sales of masks or sanitizer ..."



NYTimes: He Has 17700 Bottles of Hand Sanitizer and Nowhere to Sell Them

Cheers,

/s/ ikeyPikey
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APS Life Member

14 Mar 2020
11:37:22am
re: Coronavirus

This may have been referenced earlier but the APS has a cancellation page for shows cancelled or postponed due to this:

https://stamps.org/news/c/news/cat/news/post/cancelled-shows-march-2020-update

I went to my local supermarket yesterday and it was bedlam. All the toilet tissue was sold out and it looks like there is a run on some canned goods as well. I wore gloves and no one else I saw was doing so and in fact I got a few odd looks from store staff.


(Modified by Moderator on 2020-03-14 16:10:13)

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APS #213005

14 Mar 2020
12:01:03pm
re: Coronavirus

Some smaller shows are not listed with the APS...just an FYI.

Happy

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APS Life Member

14 Mar 2020
03:07:03pm
re: Coronavirus

About an hour ago our doorbell rang. It was a lady down our street asking us we are all OK and if anybody needed anything. Apparently our neighborhood association is going to be doing this on an ongoing basis awhile. she left a number with us to call if we needed anything. I'm sometimes a bit of a cynic -I'm sure no one on here disagrees Happy but I was a bit moved by the effort. She had a clipboard and we're now in a chain of residents to be looked out for.

Maybe there's hope for society after all.

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Silence in the face of adversity is the father of complicity and collusion, the first cousins of conspiracy..

14 Mar 2020
11:08:22pm
re: Coronavirus

Well, I just had a double Sonic Burger brought in
and thus have placed my future in the hands of some
anonymous high school kid who may not have any real
idea about the new stricter hand sanitation rules.
But the burger was really good.
Lets see how this works out.

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15 Mar 2020
02:39:26am
re: Coronavirus

All schools, college, libraries, city facilities and activities, churches that I know of, amusement facilities are shut here. The markets are all devoid of meat, dairy, canned goods, rice, pasta, freezer meals, dry goods, flour, sugar, of course toilet paper, sanitizer, and water, household cleaning products, soap, rubbing alcohol, Tylenol / Advil / etc., water filters.

There are no active cases in our city yet. The nearest is 25 miles away.
I live in Southern California, “earthquake country”, so we are in the habit of keeping emergency stores of water, non-perishable foods, and first aid on hand. But now I’m concerned that we’re going to have to go into our emergency supplies just because we can’t get day-to-day groceries. I guess that situation in itself will constitute our emergency.

I think it’s good that all non-essential facilities are shut, because I think a tremendous amount of spread could have been prevented if other countries would have shut everything down sooner. If our situation is the worst we have to deal with, I’ll be thankful.

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APS #156650

15 Mar 2020
06:51:41am
re: Coronavirus

I wish we could quarantine the media and slow down all this insane mass hysteria and panic. We need to replace it all with ONE message: KEEP CALM AND WASH YOUR HANDS!


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APS #213005

15 Mar 2020
08:16:30am
re: Coronavirus

DITTO!!!

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15 Mar 2020
08:54:48am
re: Coronavirus

Oh my, Do you really think MSM is the problem???
I didn't think that we are allowed to say that on this site.

Vince

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philatelia
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APS #156650

15 Mar 2020
09:24:29am
re: Coronavirus

I assume “MSM” means “main stream media” and not something out of “50 shades of Gray”? If yes, why would referring to main stream media’s over hyping of this issue be banned here? There are a few reactionary groups that use that term in a derogatory way to mean only some sources but technically it means all large audience media.

In any case, my statement applies to ALL forms of media no matter where they tend to fall on the political spectrum.

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15 Mar 2020
09:41:54am
re: Coronavirus

If I mention the fake news "hyping" the Wuhan Virus my post are deleted. You either believe MSM or you don't. They are the problem. It is like the tabloids at the super market check out. They are causing panic and that is what they are trying to do. It is all President Donald Trump's fault. They were losing their minds yesterday because he touched the microphone at a press conference. Do you really think that is news?
I said it before and I'll say it again.
Panic and hysteria are not appropriate.
Wash your hands.
Vince

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APS #156650

15 Mar 2020
09:45:25am
re: Coronavirus

Oh my - read my edited post above. I DID NOT mention specific media sources, my statement referred to ALL sources no matter their political leanings. But by using the terms “fake news” and so on, you are making a statement that is fiercely political and those are banned from Stamporama.

Innocent statements being vilified as political and heated politically charged responses are why that Stamporama rule was created. These don’t bring anything positive to the site so please stop assuming that my apolitical statements are supporting any political position.

Now I remember WHY I left Stamporama during the last election. This type of attacking attitude STINKS. Knock it off!

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15 Mar 2020
09:49:57am
re: Coronavirus

Please explain why "Fake News" is political? I didn't mention any news outlet. Please point out in my post where I did. Maybe you don't like my opinion and call it political when it is not. Trying to get my posts censored.

Vince

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15 Mar 2020
09:53:35am
re: Coronavirus

It is tough to discuss this when you edit posts after I respond. You are now trying to change what I am responding to. That is not being truthful. Trying to change the narrative and make my response not make sense. Shame on you. I remember when you left in a huff because I called you on changing your posts and deleting them after I responded to them.
I never mentioned any specific news outlet.
Vince

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APS #156650

15 Mar 2020
09:55:29am
re: Coronavirus

We are not having a discussion in real time - this is not a chatroom

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APS #156650

15 Mar 2020
10:16:57am
re: Coronavirus

I deleted my posts in the past to get the trolls to quit beating up on me. The conversations had shifted from discussions to personal attacks as this one has done. Whatever happened to polite discourse? You frame your responses in terms of “You think this ... “ and then attack me for thinking that way. Simply phrase your opinion and eliminate the YOU aspect. Argue the IDEA not the person expressing it.

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15 Mar 2020
10:19:11am
re: Coronavirus

Possibly some of you may have already seen this. Brought a smile to my face.
Image Not Found

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15 Mar 2020
10:27:45am
re: Coronavirus

Now for something Philatelic.
List of stamp shows that are cancelled.

https://stamps.org/news/c/news/cat/news/post/cancelled-shows-march-2020-update

Vince

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Neddie Seagoon from The Telegoons

15 Mar 2020
10:51:55am

Auctions - Approvals
re: Coronavirus

"Tiresome to Bloody Nuisance."



The next stage is "Golly Gosh"

The last time it was "Golly Gosh" was in 54 AD when the Roman General Vespasian invaded Britain.
It was also the last time that Soccer games were cancelled.Rolling On The Floor Laughing

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Sally

15 Mar 2020
10:57:28am
re: Coronavirus

Sheepshanks - enjoyed that bit very much. You planning your garden yet?

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15 Mar 2020
11:10:27am
re: Coronavirus

Hi Sally, appreciate your comment. Not planned anything on paper yet for the garden, it is still under a foot or so of snow, and more in the forecast.
Guess will have to look out and throw away some of the old seed and work on the new but nothing will be planted until mid May at the earliest. Usually buy in things like tomatoes and brassicas as they need a longer growing period which the commercial garden centres can do best.

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APS #213005

15 Mar 2020
11:27:24am
re: Coronavirus

I predict that approximately nine months from now there will be

a large influx of new babies born into this world;



I also predict that by 2041 or so they will be referred to as the

"Pandemic Generation".


Let's just hope that we don't start seeing names like "Corona' for girls

and 'Covid' for boys.....Surprise

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Snick1946
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APS Life Member

15 Mar 2020
11:40:44am
re: Coronavirus

Glen Stephen's chat board has a 40 post thread concerning show cancellations:

https://www.stampboards.com/viewtopic.php?f=13&t=89825

That board is not known for genteel discussion, comments have been made about the usual unsanitary state of many shows. Personally I've seen table dealers eating carry out foo with their fingers then without even a wipe, going through their stock. Many shows are breeding grounds for this stuff.

Look for London 2020 to be cancelled or postponed.

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51Studebaker
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Dialysis, damned if you do...dead if you don't

15 Mar 2020
11:51:14am
re: Coronavirus

Hi Vince,

In my opinion the media, all the media, is nothing like it was 30-40 years ago. As someone who has been negatively affected by the mask/sanitizer/wipes panic that the media has caused with their agendas, I really wish folks would reject the media's behavior.

Last summer Matt Taibbi wrote an introspective article named "The Media’s 10 Rules of Hate" which outlined how the media primarily now sells division. In it he said, "To make money, we’ve had to train audiences to consume news in a certain way. We need you anxious, pre-pissed, addicted to conflict...We’ve discovered we can sell hate, and the more vituperative the rhetoric, the better. This also serves larger political purposes." He goes on to list the '10 Rules of Hate' that his industry uses to make money.

Full article is here if you are interested https://washingtonspectator.org/taibbi-10rulesofhate/

In my opinion the Hatred he outlines has already been assimilated by much of the public; people now consume news to be affirmed, not to be informed.
Don


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Benque

15 Mar 2020
12:43:00pm
re: Coronavirus

Hi Don. I think you put that quite well. I didn't know about that article by Matt Taibbi, but I have generally liked his articles in the past.

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vinman
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15 Mar 2020
12:50:32pm
re: Coronavirus

The radio station I volunteer at is a community radio station. We list events going on in the community in between music. We had to pull most of them due to all the closures in the area. The music will go on.
WRDV.org
Tomorrow night I will continue with my Blues program 10-1.

Vince

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vjones48
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There is brilliance in simplicity

15 Mar 2020
01:27:05pm
re: Coronavirus


"So, first of all, let me assert my firm belief that the only thing we have to fear is...fear itself" Franklin D. Roosevelt

It is times like this that I understand this quote more than ever.. We are seeing
people acting without reason and in what I think is an irrational manner. They are going
to the stores where there are crowds of people touching shopping carts with there
hands buying toilet paper?

Me and my wife are retired and therefore can just wait this insanity out at home.
The fact is that the trucks carrying these product are on the highway right now, and
the shelves will be full again.

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15 Mar 2020
01:58:52pm
re: Coronavirus

Don,
Thanks for that link.

Vince

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okstamps
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15 Mar 2020
02:21:34pm
re: Coronavirus

Over the last two months I purchased a large stock of canned and dried food online from Amazon and also Nuts.com. I did that because I assumed there would be a quarantine of some sort eventually but mainly to get items that my local WalMart just does not carry. I also found that some items were cheaper through Amazon or Nuts.com than what WalMart has them priced at, especially when purchased in bulk.

Also, since I don't own a motor vehicle and perform all my errands on bicycle, having groceries delivered to my door is very convenient. I never liked the 9.5 mile round-trip grocery runs.

A couple of days ago when I placed an order on Amazon pickings were getting slim with many items out of stock or with a long delay before being available again. I did get coffee, coffee creamer, garbage bags and dishwashing detergent. Some small food items that had a selling price of $1 or less had a limit of two where before one could order as many as you wanted.

I just checked on Amazon again a few minutes ago. Now everything is gone. Everything is either out of stock for weeks or more or just has a notice that it is no longer in stock and it is not known if it will ever be in stock again. Other items that I had previously purchased have now been marked up in price by 100-200%.

I am planning on making one last run to WalMart to pick up a few items and then sit back and watch things progress over the next month or two. I just need some butter, margarine, chorizo sausage (it goes in with the beans in the slow cooker to give them some flavor), some cans of chopped tomatoes (again with the beans) and perhaps some bagged salads. I will probably take this trip tomorrow and see what I can find. I have a shopping bag that I purchased when living in The Netherlands; it is a very large two-handled very tough plastic bag about 2-3 times larger than an ordinary grocery bag. I figured if I used this I wouldn't need to touch any grocery carts. The doors open automatically, so no doors to open manually. I can check myself out, so no clerks handling my groceries at check-out. So other than for the stockers touching the items, limited touching of any sort involved.

It is a whole new world out there that came out the blue very unexpectedly.

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15 Mar 2020
02:29:00pm
re: Coronavirus

Saw a video on YouTube yesterday posted by a YouTube regular that I follow. I believe it was of a store opening in Australia with the camera trained down the aisle where the toilet paper was stocked. As the front door opened, the crowd poured down the aisle containing the toilet paper, with everyone grabbing as much as they could.

The person that posted the video rightly commented that this was one of the most stupid things he as ever seen. Here we have a highly contagious virus that everyone is supposedly afraid of and what do they do, they rush elbow-to-elbow together in a packed crowd down an aisle to fight over something that they can't eat. He commented that if that was him, he would be looking for the canned beans.

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Neddie Seagoon from The Telegoons

15 Mar 2020
02:50:57pm

Auctions - Approvals
re: Coronavirus

"he would be looking for the canned beans."




On Thursday I was doing the weekly shop, guess what No Beans!!
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ikeyPikey
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15 Mar 2020
04:15:24pm
re: Coronavirus

"... “You think this ... “ and then attack me for thinking that way ..."



The Public Discourse Version of Pin the Tail on the Donkey.

It is much easier to discredit an individual's opinion when you can assign that individual the opinion you want to discredit.

Wanna shoot fish in a barrel? First, pick the barrel.

"... List of stamp shows that are cancelled ..."



Q/ And why are you not accusing the APS of spreading panic? And, taking sides? And, failing to really love America?

Like the insults Tool of Moscow and Capitalist Running Dog before it, the accusation Fake News pretty much belongs to an identifiable end of of various political & cultural spectra. So, own it, and understand that flinging it around is, in and of itself, a political act.

Cheers,

/s/ ikeyPikey (who looks into his local grocery store, and thinks that we are witnessing the zombie apocalypse ... only we're the zombies)
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Harvey

I think, therefore I am - I think!

15 Mar 2020
04:27:04pm
re: Coronavirus

I went out to pick up a few groceries today - the stores really are out of toilet paper! Can anyone out there explain why there is a run (s?) on toilet paper. It really doesn't make sense to me!

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15 Mar 2020
05:08:26pm
re: Coronavirus

"... Can anyone out there explain why there is a run (s?) on toilet paper ..."



https://stamporama.com/discboard/disc_main.php?action=20&id=24622#174744

Cheers,

/s/ ikeyPikey

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Dialysis, damned if you do...dead if you don't

15 Mar 2020
05:51:10pm
re: Coronavirus

"...- the stores really are out of toilet paper!"






Don
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ernieinjax
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16 Mar 2020
12:24:52am
re: Coronavirus

Hey Theresa.. I see you talking about trolls and why you left SoR... I hated to see you go.. as we head into November, just one question. Wanna go double or nothing? Rolling On The Floor Laughing

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Collector, Moderator

16 Mar 2020
07:21:11am
re: Coronavirus

Trolls is another popular word that is tossed around that covers a broad area depending on one's views.

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ikeyPikey
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16 Mar 2020
11:09:25am
re: Coronavirus

Q/ So how come there are no reports of panic-buying at Michael's, as parents stock-up on arts'n'crafts kits to keep their kids busy during the shutdown?

Meanwhile, up-bubbles a memory of Larry (Room 201) and I (Room 204) quickly tiring of dorm life and, together with Ken (I forget) renting that premier status symbol, an Off-Campus Apartment.

It being the Spring of 1971 - everyone was busy groping their way back to the land - about one day into this adventure I find that Larry and Meg (his girlfriend) have bought a pillow-sized (?ten ?twenty pound) sack of flour and a commensurately enormous sack of sugar so that they can "save money" by baking their own bread.

I (thoughtfully, as always) explained that bread was the last & dumbest place to try & save money, as the stuff cost next to nothing at the grocery store, and nobody eats much of it, anyway.

They put their hurt noses in the air and said, basically: "Well, then, no bread for you."

I don't remember how long it took but, one weekend, Larry gifted the baking supplies on his mother (he lived less than fifty miles away) and that was that.

I am only sorry that her reaction has been lost to history.

Cheers,

/s/ ikeyPikey

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keesindy
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16 Mar 2020
12:43:47pm
re: Coronavirus

ikeyPikey wrote:

"Larry (Room 201) and I (Room 204)"



What a memory! I can't remember what my own dorm room number would have been in the '60s. In fact, I can't even remember if we had room numbers, but we must have. It was a large dorm and the administrators would have wanted a way to track us down when necessary.

Tom

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ernieinjax
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16 Mar 2020
01:05:47pm
re: Coronavirus

Moreland Hall at SUNY Oswego. It's the dorm closest to town...and the bars. That would be the fall of 1991.

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StampWrangler
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16 Mar 2020
02:47:37pm
re: Coronavirus

"I predict that approximately nine months from now there will be

a large influx of new babies born into this world;
"



And I’ve heard that when they turn age 13 in 2034 they will be called the QuaranTEEN generation.

I’m sorry. But that’s what I heard. Glad there’s no “thumbs down” options for comments....



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APS Life Member

16 Mar 2020
03:59:43pm
re: Coronavirus

I just got a message from Norfrim that some may find of interest:

'
Dear customer,

We are monitoring the development of the Corona virus closely here at Nordfrim.

Our greatest priority in this situation is the health of our customers and co-workers and we are following the guidelines provided by Government and taking all necessary precautions.

We are doing our best to keep our business running as usual in this extraordinary situation and you can still visit and purchase from our web-site and contact us by phone, email and post.

As the situation is right now we are still able to deliver to customers worldwide with the exception of Italy and potentially with smaller delays in some countries.

We hope that by joint effort we will get through this challenging situation in a good way and we look forward to hearing from you again.

Best regards,'

This is the first admission I've seen from a philatelic dealer that things are messed up. FWIW, I did get the shipment from Schaubek I referred to, came today. DHL tracking was not working.

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ikeyPikey
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16 Mar 2020
05:28:56pm
re: Coronavirus

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Please remember that Millennials - indeed, all of the Sesame Street Generations - need encouraging.

Q/ Will there be a Participation Trophy ?

Cheers,

/s/ ikeyPikey

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Benque

16 Mar 2020
06:16:39pm
re: Coronavirus

My sincere feelings about what is going on worldwide:
Thoughts about what's happening, from people I talk to: Not much, except for; whats going on?????
What I see in the news: Don't panic, just wash your hands and be sensible....BUT LOOK WHAT'S HAPPENING HERE!!!...AND HERE!!!!...AND HERE!!!!
What I see with my own eyes: Grandiose absurdities.
What I see in financial merkets: QUICK, PANIC NOW!!!! HE WHO PANICS FIRST, PANICS BEST!!! !!SELL,SELL,SELL!!!!!

And what will come of all the BS? Opportunity for those who instil and provoke panic. (Large banks are very, very good at this game...IMO)

Most of us here are old enough to remember all the panics of the past. How did our investments do during those panics? Were we worried about them when our very lives, our existence was at risk? Well, no, after all, what's a few bucks (our retirements!!!), when people are gonna die all around us???

My advice: Be sensible, and keep your powder dry. Opportunities will soon abound, if not there already.

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17 Mar 2020
06:54:23am
re: Coronavirus

Someone exclaimed to me, yesterday, that there is NO MORE EATING OFF OF THE FLOOR. No five-second rule, no three-second rule, no eating anything that touches the floor, period.

The reason, they went on to explain, was that (they heard that) "this virus is especially heavy, much heavier than other viruses, so it ends-up on the floor".

I gasped (for air) and grasped (for my handy handle on reality), and the best I could come up with (hey, it was real-time) was that it was like dropping a goldfish bowl; what made the mess was not the size of the goldfish, but the size of the bowl.

Actually, that's not too bad. The nanoscopic virus is in a microscopic water droplet. Larger water droplets fall more quickly, and smaller water droplets fall more slowly ("aerosol") because air is, like, you know, made of stuff.

I have this non-memory of sucking on a joint and exhaling: "Whoa, man, heavy virus."

Cheers,

/s/ ikeyPikey

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Linus
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17 Mar 2020
09:39:19am
re: Coronavirus

A few ramblings from me...

We need to make sure the hundreds of medical school students graduate on time. They have spent almost 8 years in college, and they are almost finished. Give them their white coats and assign them across the country without delay. Us older folk, and the country, are going to need these young people on the front lines of this virus.

Keep eating your bacon and eggs for breakfast. There will be no shortage. Iowa has millions of chickens and millions of pigs. Farmers are producing more food every single day across North America. The workers who collect the eggs dress like ER nurses, and you cannot enter turkey or hog production facilites without protective gear. It has been this way for years. No days off for the farmer, as spring planting is coming up soon.

Got my worm bedding ready, the rains will come.
The worms will come out and "the early bird catches the worm." That's me.
The fish will start biting, and I know where to catch the walleyes, crappies, blue gills, and catfish. My fillet knife is sharp.
The asparagus and rhubarb will come up, and I know where the morel mushrooms can be found in the woods. The potatoes and onions will be planted, the raspberries will come on.

And so it goes...a country boy can survive.

Linus


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philb
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18 Mar 2020
03:31:35pm

Auctions
re: Coronavirus

Linus, i agree, i think folks will find out they can get along on the basic stuff oatmeal,tea, the weekly coupon sales. I grew up on a farm..i had to do my share..but we ate very well.

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Linus
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18 Mar 2020
05:12:51pm
re: Coronavirus

Phil, I challenged my wife to see how long we could go before we had to go to the grocery store. She said "when the milk runs out." She drinks milk, I do not. I told her I would get her a gallon at the gas station when I fill up the gas containers for the lawn mower, as the grass is just starting to green up here.

We have the greatest food production and distribution system in the world. Fuel shortage is not a problem. Stores will have temporary shortages, but they will be restocked, just have a little patience.

And if you truly have a need, I quote Mr. Fred Rogers:

“When I was a boy and I would see scary things in the news, my mother would say to me, "Look for the helpers. You will always find people who are helping.”

You might have to ask for the help, but Mr. Rogers spoke the truth.

Linus



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18 Mar 2020
08:07:52pm

Auctions
re: Coronavirus

When i was a kid i would never ask for help...it took a lifetime but i am better at it now. Our cars did not move today...but i better pick up a tonic water for my wifes happy hour tomorrow.

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Brechinite
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Neddie Seagoon from The Telegoons

19 Mar 2020
06:15:45am

Auctions - Approvals
re: Coronavirus

Insurance...Man's Insurmountable Burden.

Just learned that ALL insurance companies will not pay out on their Business Interuption Disease clause. Why? Covid-19 is a new disease and not on their list!! So much for their "All Risks" policies.

I heap a plague of locusts upon them!!

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Silence in the face of adversity is the father of complicity and collusion, the first cousins of conspiracy..

19 Mar 2020
07:46:47am
re: Coronavirus

" .... I went out to pick up a few groceries today - the stores really are out of toilet paper! Can anyone out there explain why there is a run (s?) on toilet paper. It really doesn't make sense to me! ''''"

I think that some folks noticed that one of the potential side effects of Covid-19 is or can be, diarrhea, and perhaps those who are usually referred to as "Big Bottoms" just got the ball rolling and the news then spread to some who are actually just "small bottoms."

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".... You may think you understood what you thought I said, but I'm not sure you realize that what you think you heard is not what I thought I meant. .... "
Benque

19 Mar 2020
08:13:05am
re: Coronavirus

I heard that if 1 person sneezes, 100 people will crap themselves.

I went shopping yesterday, to stock up on essentials, and saw piles of T-Paper on sale, with the regular shelves fully stocked, as usual. Actually, I didn't notice anything different in the supermarket, or on the streets. Traffic only slightly down from normal. Only 1 person wearing a mask.
I'm in Mexico, by the way. People don't seem to panic here, over every little thing. Let's see how it all develops, as time goes by.

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smaier
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Sally

19 Mar 2020
08:44:08am
re: Coronavirus

Since Iowa has now closed all restaurants and banned meetings of more than 10 people, we have had to cancel our stamp club meeting for next week. Half of our members don't have computers or cell phones so we can't even do a meeting in virtual space.

The economic fallout is already hitting our family - my niece (an accountant) lost her job yesterday as the restaurant chain she worked for closed all 33 locations. My oldest daughter is interviewing for architect positions and was told yesterday that one firm likely won't be able to hire anyone this year. She is still in the running for several other positions so she still has hope.

Very thankful to have a job in a hospital. All employees are being screened before entering the facility. My husband works in a different hospital in the emergency room - he said two different families were caught trying to steal boxes of face masks so now the masks are in a secure location under lock and key. Very strange times we are living in...

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Linus
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19 Mar 2020
08:51:19am
re: Coronavirus

"Can anyone out there explain why there is a run (s?) on toilet paper. "



Millions of people are working from home, and were told to stock up on supplies to stay inside for 2 to 3 weeks. The size of the packages of toilet paper used to be 2 rolls or 4 rolls per package in the old days, but not anymore. They are now mostly 12 rolls, 18 rolls, and the "Cosco-size" that is as big as a bale of hay. That makes less number of packages on the shelves, because they are bigger in size. The shelves go empty much faster.

Factory workers are probably working overtime in Green Bay, Wisconsin, "The Toilet Paper Capital of the World." Truck drivers have to drive it from Green Bay to rest of the country. It takes time to resupply. Somewhere, they are chopping down a lot of trees, probably in Canada.

Linus
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Snick1946
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19 Mar 2020
11:14:29am
re: Coronavirus

It’s getting wild out there.

Last evening some guy walked into the Supermarket near us with a .45 automatic and started shooting. Not at people, at windows and stuff on the shelves. Guess he was annoyed they’re still out of TP. He got tackled by security but the store closed until today.

Today, same store- I was checking out and the checker, an older guy I knew from when we worked together at my former job, commented ‘They don’t know where this virus came from’. I said they do, from Wuhan he said ‘well that’s what THEY want you to believe.’ He then went into detail about what should happen to the store owner in Wuhan where it started, something about taking him behind a building and putting a bullet in his head. I told him i think that already happened. Then I remembered why I avoided him when we worked together.

I'm stuck at home along with my wife and 23 year old son who is telecommuting. I figure I can still get out for walks so long as I don't stop to talk to anybody.

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19 Mar 2020
11:19:41am

Auctions
re: Coronavirus

Around here the toilet paper and paper towel shelves are empty but also the egg shelves. I don't have a clue what people are doing with all of the eggs. My brother works at Walmart. He said when the truck comes in they have to block the aisle so they can restock because people are trying to open the cases to get the toilet paper.

I guess some people dance to a different drummer.

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BrightonPete

19 Mar 2020
12:17:34pm
re: Coronavirus

I went for a few (yes, just a few) groceries yesterday. Bread, Eggs & milk were pretty much cleaned out. Still a few, but not much. Of course TP disappeared last week!

They'll be re-stocked soon enough for people to go crazy again!

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Brechinite
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Neddie Seagoon from The Telegoons

19 Mar 2020
01:16:55pm

Auctions - Approvals
re: Coronavirus

I go to the supermarket in Forfar every Thursday at the same time of day. I normally buy the same things. Yes I am a creature of habit.

I spend around £35 every week there.

Today I spent £3.60!!

ie 1 loaf of bread and 2 Bottles of diluting juice.

No milk, no beans, no butter, no eggs, no Coke, etc etc etc.

I came back to Brechin, went to the supermarket there and couldn't get the car parked as the car park was full. Drove home then walked to the supermarket and only able to buy 1 pint of milk and a bottle of coke.

The "locusts" had cleaned out the store of everything I wanted.


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"StayAlert.......Control The Virus.......Save Lives."
sheepshanks
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19 Mar 2020
01:30:46pm
re: Coronavirus

Thought you might appreciate this Ian.
A Wee Bit of Scottish Patter ???????????????????????????? ???????????? to keep us smiling ????

Tae a virus

Twa months ago, we didna ken,
yer name or ocht aboot ye
But lots of things have changed since then,
I really must salute ye

Yer spreading rate is quite intense,
yer feeding like a gannet
Disruption caused, is so immense,
ye’ve shaken oor wee planet.

Corona used tae be a beer,
they garnished it wae limes
But noo it’s filled us awe wae fear
These days, are scary times.

Nae shakin hawns, or peckin lips,
it’s whit they awe advise
But scrub them weel, richt tae the tips,
that’s how we’ll awe survive

Just stay inside , the hoose, ye bide
Nae sneakin oot for strolls
Just check the lavvy every hoor
And stock-take, your, loo rolls

Our holidays have been pit aff
Noo that’s the Jet2 patter
Pit oan yer thermals, have a laugh
And paddle ‘ doon the waater ‘

Canary isles, no for a while
Nae need for suntan cream
And awe because o this wee bug
We ken tae be..19

The boredom surely will set in,
But have a read, or doodle
Or plan yer menu for the month
Wi 95 pot noodles.

When these run oot, just look aboot
A change, it would be nice
We’ve beans and pasta By the ton
and twenty stane o rice.

So dinny think yell wipe us oot
Aye true, a few have died
Bubonic, bird flu, and Tb
They came, they left, they tried

Ye might be gallus noo ma freen
As ye jump fae cup tae cup
But when we get oor vaccine made
Yer number will be up.
Willie Sinclair.... March2020

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19 Mar 2020
02:11:43pm
re: Coronavirus

Coronavirus Poem ... Coronaverse ?

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Neddie Seagoon from The Telegoons

19 Mar 2020
04:12:19pm

Auctions - Approvals
re: Coronavirus

Sheepshanks:-

Pure dead brilliant, by the way!

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19 Mar 2020
09:54:25pm
re: Coronavirus

My local WalMart had just opened a drive-up in February. When I had ordered some canned diced tomatoes through Amazon last week, the order was canceled the next day because they were out of stock (or so they said). So I figured I would try my local WalMart - by using drive-up, I wouldn't need to walk through the virus soup inside. So I ordered my canned diced tomatoes (limited to two cans) and a few other things on Tuesday for pick-up on Wednesday. When Wednesday came around, I got an email from WalMart informing me that some of the items on my list were no longer available, with one item being canned diced tomatoes.

What is it with the canned diced tomatoes!

So I tried Amazon again, but now what had been selling for less than $1 a can is priced for at least $2 a can if not more (some were offering one can for as much as $30!).

So I went back to the online WalMart option. They had about a dozen different options available, with different brands, different sizes, some with peppers included, etc. So I ordered one or two of each, whatever I was allowed to do. I will see tomorrow if I end up with a year's supply of canned diced tomatoes or nothing at all.

Guess the convenience of having whatever we want at our fingertips at a moments notice is no longer an option, at least for a short while.

By the way, I noticed that I am now at a greater risk from this virus for another reason on top of my four previous risk factors. (1) I am over 60 years of age, (2) I am overweight, (3) I have high blood pressure (controlled with medication), (4) I have Type II diabetes (again controlled with medication), and now (5) I have Type B blood. Apparently people with Type B blood have a higher risk of developing a severe illness from the virus and also to die from this illness. I figured the WalMart drive-up would give me the best chance to maintain social distancing.

I also ordered some eggs and a five pound bag of potatoes. It will be interesting to see what will still be available tomorrow.

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ikeyPikey
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19 Mar 2020
11:28:43pm
re: Coronavirus

Being naturally suspicious of anything tied to blood types - that goofy match-your-diet-to-your-blood-type fad comes to mind - I googled and, relax okstamps, the elevated risk (in one study, not yet peer-reviewed) was for Type A, not (your )Type B.

The primary reason to be suspicious of any claim tied to blood types is that, had there been a strong survival advantage to one type over another, we probably would not have different types. Duh.

Cheers,

/s/ ikeyPikey

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DannyS
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20 Mar 2020
05:41:34am
re: Coronavirus

The reason people are stockpiling canned tomatoes is to make sauces for the pasta they stockpiled earlierHappy

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angore
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Collector, Moderator

20 Mar 2020
06:27:34am
re: Coronavirus

I suspect some will have enough hoarded items to last a very long time.

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ernieinjax
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20 Mar 2020
12:45:59pm
re: Coronavirus

Bad news. I'm furloughed for a minimum of 30 days. Couldnt have come at a worse time.

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ikeyPikey
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20 Mar 2020
03:47:19pm
re: Coronavirus

'
Went to my local Stop'n'Shop for the 0600-0730 Senior Shopping Window.

At 0559, the parking lot was full.

I had expected that Take Your Child to Work Day would become Take Your Parent to the Grocery Day, but not one attendee appeared to be under 60.

The store had some TP, and some bleach, and a zillion flavors of bottled water.

The canned beans were gone, as were most of the canned veggies and all of the distilled water (saving an idiot friend, who drinks the stuff).

The "self serve" (eg self-grab & self-scoop) stuff will not be re-stocked for the duration, so no loose bagels (plenty in bags of 6) and no olives (etc).

All in all, a good time was had by all.

Cheers,

/s/ ikeyPikey

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larsdog
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APS #220693 ATA#57179

20 Mar 2020
04:41:40pm
re: Coronavirus

I'm on lockdown so I work with my stamps and visit StampoRama to see what's happening and ...

Wait a minute, nothing has changed.

Some days it's GOOD to be an introvert!

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Strider
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20 Mar 2020
08:44:10pm
re: Coronavirus

We're holed up here in south Bucks with the dog. In the past two days, two of our little grandchildren (they live about 12 miles away) have gone down with temperature and coughing, so it's likely their mum and dad will get it too. We were last with them last Thursday - so we're keeping fingers crossed till next Tuesday.

No eggs in the house now. But we have lots of food in the freezer, quite a lot of wine and some whisky and gin. And we've booked a grocery delivery for a week tomorrow, so we should be OK. No newspapers though. We take a brisk walk each day over fields and woods, keeping at least 2 metres away from anyone we meet.

But I have a heap of Latin American stamps to sort and get into the album, courtesy of SOR (thanks Bob!).

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Snick1946
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APS Life Member

21 Mar 2020
10:29:12am
re: Coronavirus

If you're sheltering in place and want to do some stamping, don't plan on placing orders from Mystic; they've shut down, per this email:

'Due to the ongoing COVID-19 crisis, Mystic is unable to ship orders until further notice. You can still add items to your shopping cart and you can place orders. Mystic will charge your credit card when you place an order, and ship it as soon as possible. Thank you for your understanding in these difficult times. Stay safe and enjoy your collections.'

Apparently it's proven to be a real crisis and not hysteria by the media..

We're also on lock down. Local media keeps telling people to 'have essential goods delivered'. How?? The big food chains here no longer will do this. I tried shopping this week, I felt I risked my life to do so. The public seems not to be getting the message about social distancing.


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BrightonPete

21 Mar 2020
11:20:48am
re: Coronavirus

Same with the APS Stamp Store. Shut down. No orders taken for later.

It's getting worse day by day. Hopefully people will stay in place for a while while this thing blows over. Unfortunately, people where I am are going about it as any other day prior to this blowing up. All it takes is one person to mess things up!

I was out this morning for a walk at 6AM. Only saw one other person outside, and a few cars. I'll be out after dinner as well, as not many are out then either. Just need to get some steps in to help my back.

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philb
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21 Mar 2020
11:31:16am

Auctions
re: Coronavirus

Hope i am not complaining,we are two senior citizens with no pre existing conditions...we still have the stamps and the internet..but all of a sudden to not have my gym,my favorite Chinese buffet..what happens to 30 or so Chinese waiters and food staff in the Hudson Valley when the owner shuts the door ? We will not hoard.. a couple of trips to the grocery store a week will do for us...we not the ones with the huge rolls of paper towels and toliet paper. The kids are reluctant to come around and possibly infect us. Sorry to hear about Ernie being laid off.

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musicman
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APS #213005

21 Mar 2020
12:17:40pm
re: Coronavirus

I'm an auto mechanic and we are still working, albeit slowing down with a few cancellations here and there.

But people still want their cars fixed - I assume as maybe their last bastion of freedom.

With gas prices down, people are taking to scenic drives just to get out.


It has been troublesome, though;

VERY difficult to avoid all germs when having to get in and out of other peoples' vehicles all day long. Impossible to sterilize an entire interior/exterior of a car. One sneeze and its everywhere. Weighs on all our minds here constantly.

What do you wipe down???
Steering wheels and columns
Inside and outside door handles
door frames
shift levers
wiper levers
arm rests
center consoles
glove box
keys
seat levers
hood release
fuel door release
And anything else we have to touch to work on....


Good grief.....

D'Oh

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Snick1946
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APS Life Member

21 Mar 2020
12:28:03pm
re: Coronavirus

I think this was discussed on here but I'm worried about incoming mail having this stuff. I read the virus can live on paper or cardboard for anywhere from 1-3 days, and that doesn't count infection from a sick mail carrier. I went on a buying spree last week to have stuff to work on now I have a pile of unopened orders sitting on my bookcase.

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ikeyPikey
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21 Mar 2020
01:26:25pm
re: Coronavirus

"... I'm an auto mechanic and we are still working ..."



One of the better questions asked of Hizzoner (Mayor Bill de Blasio) yesterday was why car repair shops are allowed to be open (under the Governor's state-wide order) as essential services while bicycle repair shops are not ... even though folks are being encouraged to stay off the trains'n'buses, get a little exercise, and are allowed to run errands.

Hizzoner promised an answer today.

Cheers,

/s/ ikeyPikey (who is not afraid of the virus entering his home on incoming postal mail because of the degree of automation, the gloves he sees on USPS employees, and the fact that water droplets soak into paper & then evaporate, leaving the virus high & dry & dead) (but who, to be fair, will report that his daughter has been spraying Lysol on incoming boxes from Amazon)
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sheepshanks
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21 Mar 2020
04:39:14pm
re: Coronavirus

Just in case anyone has not had their fill of statistics this site has plenty.
https://virusncov.com/

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jkc1999

21 Mar 2020
08:03:43pm
re: Coronavirus

I'm essential personnel so I am working as usual. I am work in social services with individuals with disabilities. It's been interesting to keep all of my houses stocked with paper products since we are used to shopping weekly for items. Most of the population is high risk so everyone is home. Thankful for great staff who continue to show up and thankful I have a job.

jackie

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philb
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22 Mar 2020
08:28:50am

Auctions
re: Coronavirus

Jackie, my daughter and her boyfriend are both social services supervisors with Dutchess County, N.Y. He had 50 hours overtime last week (on call 24 hours).

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ikeyPikey
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22 Mar 2020
11:01:51am
re: Coronavirus

Yesterday being the last day that 'non-essential' travel was permitted, I hit the MickeyD drive-thru for a large decaf, and headed on down to a little strip of beach to drink it ... parking my car one space away from the other cars, of course.

The drinking done, I went for a walk on the beach, and came across a long line of clothing, washed-up with last night's high(er) tide.

I was later able to work-out that some he-donkey(s) had entertained themselves by heaving large bags of clothing off of the nearby causeway into Jamaica Bay. Don't know why the clothes were bagged ... moving? donating? ... but it was clear that, left where they were, they'd be ruined.

Anyway, after consulting my Family's Counter-Vandalism Anti-Litter Policy - which states clearly that, if you pick it up and properly dispose of it, you won't have to see it again on your next visit - I gathered-up & bagged about a cubic meter of wet cloth (ouch), drove home, stood over a laundry sink and washed the sand out of each piece (lotsa wet denim, lotsa wet sand), downed an ibuprofen, ran it all thru my building's washers on the hot cycle (twice each for four loads), ran it all thru a hot dryer, folded it nicely, downed another ibuprofen, and only then learned that the NYC Dept of Sanitation textile/clothing recycling program is considered a non-essential service (ouch), so I've not only got this large pile of ready-to-donate clothing with nowhere to go, I've also got this week's compostable food scraps sitting in my freezer with nowhere to go (op cit NYC Dept of Sanitation non-essential services).

Rescuing clothing is a nice hobby, but I wish I could find a hobby focused on things that are smaller & lighter.

Cheers,

/s/ ikeyPikey

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jbaxter5256
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22 Mar 2020
11:46:00am
re: Coronavirus

Thanks for doing it anyway! I appreciate your efforts very much. Thumbs Up

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BrightonPete

22 Mar 2020
12:21:14pm
re: Coronavirus

"Rescuing clothing is a nice hobby, but I wish I could find a hobby focused on things that are smaller & lighter.
"


Might I suggest "stamp collecting"?

Rolling On The Floor Laughing

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musicman
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APS #213005

22 Mar 2020
12:24:28pm
re: Coronavirus

He got ya there, Ikey....

LaughingLaughingLaughingLaughingLaughingLaughingLaughingLaughingLaughing

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Sally

22 Mar 2020
01:37:19pm
re: Coronavirus

IkeyPikey - your story brought back memories - several years ago someone dumped a large laundry basket of clothing on our rural road. Rather than look at it forever, i loaded it into my car, washed it, and donated it. Nice to know others do that too! Thanks for cleaning up your beachThumbs Up

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Neddie Seagoon from The Telegoons

23 Mar 2020
01:54:50pm

Auctions - Approvals
re: Coronavirus

Jings!...Crivvens!...Help Ma Boab!

The Scottish Government has shut down all shops other than food and medical.

The result is "she who must be obeyed" will now be at home.

There goes the wild parties, the drinking sessions and my stamp time will be reduced. No doubt she will find more chores for me to do.

I dread it when she says "I have been thinking" 'cos it means work for me.

Woe! Woe! and thrice Woe!




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Tom in Exton, PA

23 Mar 2020
01:54:54pm

Approvals
re: Coronavirus

Sally, someone could’ve lost their laundry out the back of a pickup or from where they had it sitting on their roof or trunk lid! When I travel the interstates im amused at the stuff people lose off vehicles. Lotsa clothing and I’m most intrigued by the occasional single couch cushion.

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ernieinjax
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23 Mar 2020
04:03:44pm
re: Coronavirus

Ian,
You're gonna get the full brunt of what's up. Take it like a man. I recieved word that I'll be working from home. I hit the trunk release, they toss a computer and soft phone in my car. Problem solved.

What saddens me more than anything else is that Florida State graduation had been cancelled. Not postponed, but cancelled. As in not gonna happen. That's sad. My daughter Grace kicked ass there in science and math. Oh well.

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sheepshanks
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23 Mar 2020
04:22:30pm
re: Coronavirus

Ernie, as an Englishman I could never understand this graduation thing, last thing I wanted to do was hang around school, left on Friday started work on Monday. Seems like an excuse for clothing shops and liquor stores to make money.
I had taken my GCE's (exams)and passed, no course work was counted, you either knew the subject and answered the written questions (no calculators, but trig tables supplied)or you were not able.
Guess life changes but not always for the better.

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51Studebaker
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Dialysis, damned if you do...dead if you don't

23 Mar 2020
05:00:26pm
re: Coronavirus

In the meantime in the USA…
40,000 people die each year in auto accidents
88,000 people die each year in alcohol-related deaths
260,000 people die each year due to medical mistakes
480,000 people die each year due to cigarette smoking (includes 41,000+ deaths resulting from secondhand smoke exposure)

Not too many headlines or folks freaking out over these people dying around us every day.

I guess I am just used to living with the grim reaper looking over my shoulder. After living through 5 long years of doctor after doctor tell me that I had a 5% chance of living longer than 6 months I learned how to cope. I still live day-to-day and have many more gray sky days than blue sky days.

But…so what? Everything eventually falls apart. The computer you are using to read this right now will fall apart. The chair you are sitting in will fall apart. The house you are in will fall apart. The earth itself will eventually fall apart. And most certainly we will all fall apart. I see little value in focusing on falling apart. Turn off the news, they are sowing division and hatred. Live each day to the fullest; try to laugh, cry, and learn something new every day.
Don

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sheepshanks
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23 Mar 2020
05:18:53pm
re: Coronavirus

Regarding the auto accidents, more people have died on Canadian roads since 1950 than Canadian service folk who died in both world wars together.
Sad but true.

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ikeyPikey
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23 Mar 2020
07:15:34pm
re: Coronavirus

"... Sally, someone could’ve lost their laundry out the back of a pickup or from where they had it sitting on their roof or trunk lid! ..."



Agreed, but the bag had to fly a good six feet laterally and clear a >2-foot-high railing to sail into the bay ... the dry clothes, now bagged by the door, weigh 35 pounds ... so my first guess was he-donkeys giving the bag the Old Heave Ho.

Now that you mention it, though, the bag could have been stacked onto a collection truck - perhaps a large open-topped deuce-and-a-half - in which case it would have been ten feet off the pavement when it began its roll.

Dunno,

/s/ ikeyPikey (still enjoying his smug self-satisfaction for a job well done) Laughing

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Neddie Seagoon from The Telegoons

23 Mar 2020
07:22:10pm

Auctions - Approvals
re: Coronavirus

Ernie:- I can have sympathy for you and your daughter. To be able to have the hard work recognised by their peers and family is a once in a lifetime experience.

However at my sons graduation he did admit that he hadn't worked too hard. Why? Because he had a whale of a time!!

As for taking it like a man. I know my position in life:- Bottom rung of the ladder, beneath the cat and the dog!LaughingLaughing

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jbaxter5256
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23 Mar 2020
10:00:24pm
re: Coronavirus

Ian,

I can commiserate with you on the Scotland closures as Washington state's governor, Jay Inslee, just announced a mandatory stay at home for non-essential workers as well starting in 46.5 hours from now. I can already see the wheels turning in my wife's head about all the cleaning and garage emptying that should be going on during this home based stay. Unfortunately for me, my company will probably decide that I can do all of my work remotely which is more difficult to do in many respects and MUCH more stressful to do. Crying

For most clients my highest priority tasks for the last two and a half weeks has involved setting up remote access or expanding its capacity so their employees can work remotely or resolving issues with their remote connectivity. I have also been upgrading client home computers from Windows 7 to Windows 10 due to security concerns as well.

Jerrel

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larsdog
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APS #220693 ATA#57179

24 Mar 2020
02:26:59am
re: Coronavirus

"In the meantime in the USA…
40,000 people die each year in auto accidents
88,000 people die each year in alcohol-related deaths
260,000 people die each year due to medical mistakes
480,000 people die each year due to cigarette smoking (includes 41,000+ deaths resulting from secondhand smoke exposure)

Not too many headlines or folks freaking out over these people dying around us every day."



It's not the deaths from COVID-19 per se that is scary. In fact, there is little hope of stopping many (most?) of the deaths now in the U.S. because we, as a whole, lack the will to really take the necessary precautions to arrest the spread like China, South Korea, and Singapore ultimately did. Western Europe is probably a better barometer of what is coming.

That means we can expect a third to half of the country will be exposed to the virus, and half of those will become infected. That's about 50 million infected, most of them very mild cases. It's the 2 or 3 million serious cases that will overwhelm the medical system if they hit within a narrow window. With a 1% mortality rate we're likely looking at 500,000 fatalities if nothing changes. If those people were dying at home of heart attacks, the numbers above would be relevant for comparison. But the 2.5 million serious cases need ventilators because this is a respiratory disease. (The technical term is SARS-CoV-2, and yes, this is a cousin of "SARS" (and MERS), and SARS stands for "Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome"). If we overwhelm the system, those 500,000 dead could easily become 1 million dead, or more, if we have to triage patients and decide who is left to certainly die and who is given a chance to live. Italy knows all to well about that outcome already.

We missed the opportunity to get out in front of this with testing. All we can do now is TRY to lower the peak load on hospitals and delay in hopes we can catch up with the medical supplies we need to keep our doctors and nurses safe. (Hoping for a cure before the peak hits is wishful thinking, and wishful thinking is NOT an effective strategy in the real world very often).

If the current trend holds, we will have over 100,000 infected and over 1,000 dead in the U.S. before March is over. April is when the disaster really strikes. Shortages of masks and other protective gear could become widespread. Close to 1 million infected (if we are able to adequately test) and over 10,000 dead by April 15. What happens after that depends on the steps we take now, but my guess would be 2.5 million infected and 40,000 dead by the end of April. Plus who knows how many other deaths due to overburdened hospitals and staff. That's just the U.S.

The number officially reported as "infected" will vary due to testing availability and protocols, so the number of deaths will provide a better statistical picture of reality, albeit after the fact.

So my prediction for the U.S. is:
March 31 - over 100,000 infected; over 1,000 dead
April 15 - 500,000 to 1 million infected; around 10,000 dead
April 30 - tbd based on government action or inaction, but I wouldn't be surprised to see over 25,000 dead by April 30.

This isn't politics. This is math.
If someone else has looked at the data and drawn a significantly different conclusion, please let me know. I would sleep better if I was wrong about this.

And if I am wrong, and it's not that bad, feel free to call me all the names you want. I won't care because I will be too busy being happy things turned out so well.

Lars
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51Studebaker
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Dialysis, damned if you do...dead if you don't

24 Mar 2020
05:30:32am
re: Coronavirus

Hi Lars,
Your post only appears to be considering the possible negative scenarios. Your trajectory outlines a worst case scenario, do you really feel that there is no possibility of anything good happening? That business will not figure out ways to address the shortages? That science and the healthcare system will not find ways to treat people? That longer term there will be no cures? I am pretty sure that the strategy of ‘social distancing’ and shutting down the economy is designed to buy a bit of time to allow solutions to be put into place.

I lived the last 6 years with a 95% chance of dying hanging over my head. One of the few things that was in my power was how I would think about the future and spend my time. If I only considered worst case scenarios, I would have just crawled into my bed and died. I have faith in several forms beyond spiritual; I have faith in science, I have faith in technology, I have faith in people, I have faith in myself. These faiths are bigger than my fears.

The current situation can be viewed as a glass half full, half empty, or a balance between the two. I know that the unknown can be fearful but when the outcome is unknown why not take a balanced perspective? Good things can and do happen.
Don

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ikeyPikey
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24 Mar 2020
06:57:02am
re: Coronavirus

Israeli Inventions That Lessen The Healthcare System’s Burden

https://tinyurl.com/v2vez19

Happy reading, and an example that, like the virus, we are also a moving target.

/s/ ikeyPikey (who apologizes for the re-direct, but the original URL contains multiple commas, which give our system fits)

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APS #220693 ATA#57179

24 Mar 2020
10:39:33am
re: Coronavirus

"do you really feel that there is no possibility of anything good happening? "



Of course it's possible, and I would welcome any and all good things happening.

"That business will not figure out ways to address the shortages? "



Masks? Yes. Ventilators? Maybe. Manufacturing more doctors and nurses in 6 weeks? Not so much.

"That science and the healthcare system will not find ways to treat people?"



Eventually, yes, but will it be in time to make a dramatic difference? I hope so, but you plan for the worst and hope for the best.

"That longer term there will be no cures?"



I am counting on a vaccine within 18 months. We can't afford to let this become a seasonal thing!

"I am pretty sure that the strategy of ‘social distancing’ and shutting down the economy is designed to buy a bit of time to allow solutions to be put into place."



The stated goal is to "flatten the curve" so we don't overwhelm the hospitals, but if people are still congregating to see the Cherry blossoms in D.C. or hang out on the beach in Florida for Spring Break before going back home all over the country, we won't be as successful as we need to be.

I hope a miracle happens and it's not that bad. That would be wonderful.

"I know that the unknown can be fearful but when the outcome is unknown why not take a balanced perspective?"



I'm not fearful of the outcome. I am sad for those who suffer. But I think mine IS a balanced perspective. Worst case scenario would be social breakdown in a country with more guns than people. Best case scenario is a miracle treatment tomorrow. Reality likely resides in the middle somewhere.



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Harvey

I think, therefore I am - I think!

24 Mar 2020
10:45:08am
re: Coronavirus

I live in a rural area fairly close to Halifax, N.S. and our area is now covered by emergency measures which closes all parks, most trails and all beaches. The reason they had to do this is the severe lack of common sense. A few days ago we had a warm(ish) sunny day and I drove past a local beach - it was packed and most of the provincial parks were packed as well - so much for social distancing. I saw pictures of the Florida beaches last weekend, spring break, and the beaches were full of kids! We have younger people in the local area referring to this pandemic as "The Boomer Killer", running around the stores coughing and spitting at people screaming that they are "spreading the Covid". Things are getting very weird and strange! To all parents - Do you know where your kids are and what they are doing? If everyone would do their bit maybe this would dissipate quickly, but people really have to realize that this is a serious thing! This has nothing to do with stamps, just sayin'...

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There is brilliance in simplicity

24 Mar 2020
12:29:28pm
re: Coronavirus


Just wanted to say,well said Lars, I think as you do.

I have a great deal of faith in Humanity ability to adapt and overcome.



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APS #220693 ATA#57179

24 Mar 2020
01:48:27pm
re: Coronavirus

""The Boomer Killer""



I have also heard "Boomer Remover". Classy.

"I have a great deal of faith in Humanity ability to adapt and overcome."



I do, too. I watched Neil Armstrong walk on the moon! The problem with this virus is that the time for action has long past when reality sets in. There will be heroes in this, though, and I will be grateful for the doctors and nurses that innovate and improvise to save as many lives as possible.

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Collector, Moderator

24 Mar 2020
02:41:18pm
re: Coronavirus

A comment from Emily Landon, the chief infectious disease epidemiologist at University of Chicago Medicine

“It’s really hard to feel like you’re saving the world when you’re watching Netflix from your couch. But if we do this right, nothing happens,” Landon said. “A successful shelter-in-place means you’re going to feel like it was all for nothing, and you’d be right: Because nothing means that nothing happened to your family. And that’s what we’re going for here.”

I am sure there will be it was all about nothing when it is over and not learn anything for the future. Like other initiatives, there may be a flurry of activity but over time people will fall back and get to relearn again.

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Benque

24 Mar 2020
02:54:04pm
re: Coronavirus

Maybe in places like USA, Canada, UK and parts of Europe, but here in Mexico I already see people beginning to disregard the self-quarantine, etc, and acting as if it is already over.
Frankly, I expect a big increase of cases here soon, as those already exposed begin to feel symptoms. Most of these will already have passed on their contagion before feeling ill.
We've all got to be careful until we KNOW that the risk is down near zero.

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Retired Ap. Book Mod, Pres Golden Gate Stamp Club, Hi Tech Consultant

24 Mar 2020
03:07:38pm
re: Coronavirus

On a lighter note:
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rrr...

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APS #220693 ATA#57179

24 Mar 2020
03:26:30pm
re: Coronavirus

Also on a lighter note, Jimmy Fallon invited people to describe their quarantine in 6 words with #MyQuarantineInSixWords. Some of the gems:

Have I had a shower today?
We can work in pajamas now?
We can drink at work now?
Day two: All snacks are gone!
This ends in divorce or murder!

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Stampme

25 Mar 2020
09:41:06am
re: Coronavirus

SPEAKING OF FAKE NEWS...THERE WAS NO TRAVEL BAN

A travel ban was NOT instituted in January. A travel restriction was put in place. A travel restriction allowed what can only be termed numerous loopholes so that people could travel FROM and TO China--and they did. They also traveled to and from South Korea, and other places in Asia that had virus problems--they were not restricted.

Additionally, 300,000 people had traveled from China to the US one month before the travel restrictions imposed on January 31 by the way NOT by one person but by a consensus in the government.

Regardless, the virus is here. And, as the old folks would have said: We've been caught with our pants down.

Bruce

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25 Mar 2020
12:36:08pm
re: Coronavirus

The best way to not get caught with your pants down is to not wear pants.

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25 Mar 2020
03:26:45pm
re: Coronavirus


We were told at work yesterday that we have to get rid of our overtime hours so that the company can apply for short time work. I only work 3 days a week for 4 hours until after Easter plus a 6 day long weekend. Also everyone at work received a travel-pass today just incase.

Stores are only letting in one person per shopping wagon to keep customers apart at the cashiers. They have also limited the number of people to 1 per 10 square meters in a store, security guards enforce this. Only 2 people are allowed to be together outside and must keep a distance of 1.5 meters. This law doesn´t apply to people who life together. If your caught with more than 3 people the police can fine each person 200 Euros. If you get caught a second time 25 000 Euros are possible. We are not yet restricted to stay inside (yet), but we have to keep our distance from others.

Here in Germany as of today, 181 dead. Most were over the age of 81.

I almost forgot, some stores are restricting their toilet paper to 1 pack a person. This is good because I´m running low.

So all I can say is be very careful and stay away from others.

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25 Mar 2020
05:13:18pm
re: Coronavirus

Senior Shopping Hours ... quite the list !

https://www.snopes.com/news/2020/03/20/grocery-stores-special-hours/

Q/ How long will MVS (Most Vulnerable Shopper) Hours persist once Covid-19 is past ?

Cheers,

/s/ ikeyPikey (whose local Trader Joe & Costco both instituted social distance protocols during regular business hours by limiting the number of people in the store at any one time)

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Tom in Exton, PA

25 Mar 2020
05:23:36pm

Approvals
re: Coronavirus

We went to the store after 10am on Monday. It wasn’t crowded and we were able to get everything we needed. Cashier said it was very crowded early during the senior time.

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BrightonPete

25 Mar 2020
09:03:15pm
re: Coronavirus

"We went to the store after 10am on Monday. It wasn’t crowded and we were able to get everything we needed. Cashier said it was very crowded early during the senior tim"


I figured as much. MVS hours 7AM-8AM, regular hours 8AM-8PM. I went at 7.45PM and there few a few other shoppers. I think that is a better time to go & will continue with that plan. But still, people here do not respect boundaries with the social distancing. I have to do the best to stay away from others. One guy I swerved off the sidewalk to the middle off the road chuckled when I did that. All it takes is 1 person to continue the spread!
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25 Mar 2020
11:20:10pm
re: Coronavirus

With 3M and Medtronic being based in Minnesota, we produce both masks and ventilators. 3M ramped up it's mask production to around 35 million per month. The state also has a Ventilator Reserve Program for emergencies.

Having spent just over a week in the hospital this year already (viral meningitis) I don't have any desire to go back there.


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APS #220693 ATA#57179

26 Mar 2020
01:07:47am
re: Coronavirus

"Having spent just over a week in the hospital this year already (viral meningitis) I don't have any desire to go back there."



Amen, Brother!

Here's a toast to EVERY SoR member here (with the exception of pregnant women and their immediate families, and anyone on a continuing course of treatment, of course) - "May none of you have a need to visit a hospital as a guest or visitor this year! If you WORK at a hospital, we REALLY appreciate all that you do!"

Lars

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26 Mar 2020
01:57:44pm

Auctions
re: Coronavirus

Lars, great positive post..it says a lot !

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26 Mar 2020
01:57:47pm
re: Coronavirus

"Having spent just over a week in the hospital this year already (viral meningitis) I don't have any desire to go back there.
"



Be glad you were not in isolation where staff and visitors need to be gowned and gloved to enter the patient's room. Been through that twice recently as spouse of the patient. It's a pain for hospital staff, but a necessary precaution sometimes. It was interesting to observe the differences in how seriously staff observed the isolation protocol.

Tom
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26 Mar 2020
02:22:04pm
re: Coronavirus

I know people can have honest differences of opinion on the severity of this situation but for heaven's sake isn't it best to assume a distancing approach?

It will get worse until people are forced to comply with social distancing. This weekend two houses in my suburban neighborhood hosted what appeared to be large family gatherings. Cars parked up and down the street just like nothing had changed. Great way to kill Grandma.

Sequel, last night I went out for a walk and ran into a block party. No kidding people sitting in their chairs in the street, standing around drinking and visiting like noting was amiss. I tried passing by quickly and one of them called out 'we're having a social distancing party!' My wife wanted me to call the cops on them. I doubted they'd do anything. It's going to need to get very bad before people take this seriously.

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26 Mar 2020
02:58:12pm
re: Coronavirus

A number of towns in Mississippi enacted local orders; the usual stuff, closing non-essential businesses, limiting gatherings, etc.

The Governor of Mississippi then exercised his authority, and nullified all of those orders.

Pretty interesting choice for a state next to Louisiana, the home of New Orleans.

Cheers,

/s/ ikeyPikey (who appreciates Federalism no matter whether it cuts his way, or not)

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26 Mar 2020
07:44:22pm
re: Coronavirus

I was going to wait until 3-31 to post an update, but the U.S. just jumped to the top spot for total confirmed cases, leaping past China and Italy. We have already gone past 1,000 dead and will certainly surpass 100,000 confirmed cases tomorrow. That means my projections for March 31 were on the conservative side.

I said by April 15 we would have 500,000 to 1 million infected and around 10,000 dead. I don't know if we will be able to ramp up testing enough at this point to identify that many cases, but today's numbers say that is being conservative. For the past 10 days our death toll has more than doubled EVERY three days. If we stay on that trajectory, that's 119,827 dead by April 15. Doubling every 4 days is 37,691, every 5 days is 18,849. I'm afraid we are looking at 20,000 to 25,000 dead by April 15, and that is assuming we are able to bend this curve.

This isn't a "worse case scenario". (Worst case is over 100,000 dead by April 15 and 3.8 million dead and 268 million infected by April 30 - and if we have over 250 million infected that fast we are looking at a mortality rate of at least 5%, not 1.4%, and that's 12.5 million dead). Assuming we are able to make intelligent decisions based on ever increasing test data, we may keep the death toll under 100,000 by April 30, but if we start opening up remote areas to business as usual, all bets are off because that will create an inevitable draw from infected areas to less infected areas and actually SPEED UP the spread of the virus as people in large cities flee to stay with relatives in remote areas, thinking they are getting away from the threat, but inevitably bringing the virus with them.

You may not LIKE the math (I sure don't), but this is the reality we are facing. Like I said, "April is when the disaster really strikes!"

I hope I'm wrong, but right now it looks like I was too conservative in my prior estimates. I track all of the numbers daily and REALLY hope to be able to post good news next time, but the numbers don't lie.

You can't B.S. your way through a viral pandemic!

Lars

P.S. I wish we had an icon in the bottom right that said "I don't LIKE it, but I respect the data analysis", because I certainly don't LIKE these numbers!

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BrightonPete

26 Mar 2020
08:13:13pm
re: Coronavirus

That's awful, Lars!

I heard on the news tonight that the military will be massing along the US-Canada border to prevent us Canadians from racing in to your country. I just hope that this guard will stop Americans trying to get into ours. I can't really see any of us wanting to go to your country with all those cases now!

Stay safe, hope this eventually passes. (I think a praying emoji is needed.)

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26 Mar 2020
08:33:37pm
re: Coronavirus

"I can't really see any of us wanting to go to your country with all those cases now!"



No doubt! I don't understand the border troop thing myself. If we are going to deploy troops to keep Canadians out, it should be in May and June. (Can you tell I'm really missing hockey right now?)

P.S. Before you say Canadians are the backbone of U.S. hockey teams, I should tell you that I'm a Red Wings fan. We use Russians! Laughing

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Dialysis, damned if you do...dead if you don't

26 Mar 2020
09:07:35pm
re: Coronavirus

The USA has the most reported cases IF you want to believe China. Additionally, while the US is ranked 1st in reported cases but ranks 6th in deaths. This speaks incredibly well for the US healthcare system and brave folks who work in it. Dr. Deborah Birx said today that the extreme predictions about the pandemic don't line up with the incoming data and also said that 19 of all 50 states with confirmed cases have low levels of the outbreak. And the rate of new cases has showed a slower rate in the last 3 days. So I guess it depends which data you are doing math upon. No doubt that the number of cases is going up as it was expected. But what is the asymptomatic math? No one knows in any country how many people are walking around with it and have no symptom or have had it and do not know it. When all countries final get antibody testing in place we will get the data needed to understand what is going on and be able to calculate accurate mortality rates. Until then the math is incomplete. NYC clearly has a significant issue as do a number of other hot spots in the country. But while the media is concentrated in certain hard hit areas of the country there is a massive amount of the country which is not seeing the same scope.

Of course any deaths are horrible, but the economic virus is also horrible and will also cause many deaths. Here is more math, 3.3 million new unemployment claims last week (three times greater than any other week in the history of the US). That is scary, I particularly fear the number of opioid deaths in the coming weeks as people who are out of work sit at home with nothing better to do than eat a handful of pills to make themselves feel better. They say it is easy to be a prophet, simply predict bad things will happen. So I guess I will be a prophet when opioid deaths start climbing in the coming weeks. ‘Doom and gloom’ is trending but I am not sure it serves a useful purpose; everyone already knows to stay home. I know reading the negativity in the philatelic forums certainly serves to depress folks.
Don

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APS #220693 ATA#57179

26 Mar 2020
11:58:22pm
re: Coronavirus

"I particularly fear the number of opioid deaths in the coming weeks as people who are out of work sit at home with nothing better to do than eat a handful of pills to make themselves feel better."



That is DEFINITELY a concern as well, to be sure, along with other trends (like suicide) when people feel like hope is lost. But me predicting it won't make it happen. It happening will make it so. Income replacement and mental health provisions should definitely be included in any bailout legislation.

"But what is the asymptomatic math? No one knows in any country how many people are walking around with it and have no symptom or have had it and do not know it."



That's true. I think the best indication we have is South Korea where they tested anybody and everybody, free and on demand. Their daily increase is around 2%, so they have it under statistical control. Mortality rate in South Korea is 1.4%, and there are probably a lot of asymptomatic folks that slipped through, but I doubt the actual mortality rate is less than 1%. That's at least 10x the lethality of the seasonal flu. Italy has a mortality rate of over 10%, but they are only able to test those who are seriously ill, so the numbers are skewed. With more robust testing in the U.S. (finally), we may get a clearer, and hopefully more optimistic, picture.

"while the US is ranked 1st in reported cases (it) ranks 6th in deaths."



True, but deaths are a trailing indicator. See where China, Italy, and the US are on April 15. And factor in population size as well. Italy should be played out by then because they have a smaller population. China has by far the biggest risk of a secondary wave, and keep an eye on India. I sure hope they can do as well as South Korea and China because if it gets loose in India like it has in the U.S., it would be even more devastating.

"Dr. Deborah Birx said today that the extreme predictions about the pandemic don't line up with the incoming data and also said that 19 of all 50 states with confirmed cases have low levels of the outbreak. And the rate of new cases has showed a slower rate in the last 3 days."



I am SO THANKFUL that she is there! And yes, I agree that the "extreme predictions" are just that. But the "extreme predictions" are millions dead by April 30. I predict we can keep it under 100,000 and I HOPE we can do MUCH better than that. As far as the RATE of new cases showing a slower rate in the last 3 days, that is true, but there are two issues with that:

1. It's not a PROBLEM for the number of new confirmed cases to rise dramatically if we know it was accompanied by a massive increase in testing, which apparently has happened, so looking at a trend of just a few days can be misleading. Looking at longer trends tends to be more informative.

2. Even if you DO look at short term trends, if the difference is not statistically significant, it's meaningless. But I do understand the desire to put out at lease SOME good news!

But here is the raw data for the last 10 days. Run the data analysis yourself. I pulled these numbers from the Johns Hopkins web site every day around 5 pm CDT. The numbers are roughly doubling every three days. That is EXPLOSIVE! I think we can get that down to every 5 days in the short term, like France and Germany have. Italy has it down to every 8 days, but they have been hammered so hard they have many more recovered, so they experience more herd immunity. It's about reached its peak in Italy, but the results have been devastating. I hope we can do a better job of "flattening the curve".

US confirmed cases / deaths
3-17 6362 / 96
3-18 7769 / 122
3-19 13159 / 174
3-20 18563 / 225
3-21 25493 / 292
3-22 32644 / 401
3-23 41708 / 511
3-24 52145 / 677
3-25 65174 / 919
3-26 82404 / 1178

So yes, the percent increase of confirmed cases from 3-20 to 3-23 (125%) was less than the percent increase from 3-23 to 3-26 (98%). But BOTH of those indicate EXPLOSIVE exponential growth of doubling every three days, or less. That's just a statistical fact. The mortality rates are worse over the same period, from 127% to 131%. I don't want to scare or depress anyone, I want us to be INFORMED so that when we communicate with our elected officials, we are using FACTS, not partisan talking points.

Now, more than ever before, we need to INSIST on FACT BASED DECISIONS!

Feel free to do you own analysis on the numbers, or provide data from a more reputable source, if you can find one, and explain your rationale.

Lars




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Dialysis, damned if you do...dead if you don't

27 Mar 2020
03:42:04am
re: Coronavirus

There is no value in you and I regurgitating metrics, for every negative metric you post I can post a positive one. No one cares if you or I am ‘right’.

There are two reasons I care about folks posting endless streams of negative COVID information in a hobby forum; one is public and one is personal. My public concern is that the media (including social media like this forum) already have more than enough negativity. And frankly no one should be coming into a hobby community to get their COVID information, they should be listening to their own doctors, their own local authorities, and national disease control folks. Different locations should have different levels of concern, different populations have different risks.

In terms of a personal reason, our hobby is a welcome distraction for me. And as I sit here at 3AM I am getting ready to head off to dialysis in a medical facility with 30 other ultra-high risk old people like myself. Most of these folks are on oxygen, most have diabetes, most are not ambulatory, most come from rest homes where their care is questionable. Since I am able, I help out the overwhelmed healthcare providers each day including bringing back the patients who are not ambulatory, getting them weighed, getting masks on everyone, getting their hands sanitized. You cannot help but become a ‘family’ in these kinds of healthcare facilities, our common ground is we all go through the same medical torture each day.

But the common ground here is philately so having my ‘welcome distraction’ turn into a stream of negative information sucks. All of us in the Stamporama community are already living this, each of us has our own challenges and unique situations to overcome. In my case this also includes overcoming critical lifesaving infection control supply shortages which only exists due to the fear mongering and resulting panic buying.

So I understand SCF folks posting about cancelled stamp shows or how they are dealing with shipping and mailing challenges during this trying time. But I do not see value in posting running body counts.
Don

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Collector, Moderator

27 Mar 2020
07:53:27am
re: Coronavirus

If only we paid this attention to other causes of needless deaths and not let this just become another new norm.

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APS #220693 ATA#57179

27 Mar 2020
11:05:13am
re: Coronavirus

"for every negative metric you post I can post a positive one"



Metrics aren't positive or negative. They just are. Metrics can be taken out of context or spun, and it's easy to draw conclusions from the numbers. You said:

"Additionally, while the US is ranked 1st in reported cases but ranks 6th in deaths. This speaks incredibly well for the US healthcare system and brave folks who work in it."



I pointed out that deaths is a TRAILING indicator. Check the numbers again April 15. If the pattern still holds, you can reasonably argue there is something there. That would be wonderful!

I don't WANT the numbers to be what they are, but ignoring an obvious statistical trend is unwise. When the measurements are later in the process it is very hard to bend the curve in the short term, so it's important to be patient to see the results of mitigation actions.

I'm very hopeful that new tests coming online now will bend the curve significantly, and when we flatten it, like South Korea has, that will be a GREAT DAY! The sooner the better.

As far as "body counts", I believe you were the first to post the numbers for smoking, etc. as a way of comparison. The current "body count" isn't as important as the trend, which is frightening. I take no pleasure in that. I am, in fact, COUNTING ON US to bend the curve. I would love to see a collaboration with all countries in identifying best practices where possible.

This virus is the enemy. Being informed helps some folks. Nobody is forcing anyone to visit a thread in the "Off Topic" section. There are several (most) "Off Topics" that I don't read at all.

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APS #220693 ATA#57179

27 Mar 2020
12:19:43pm
re: Coronavirus

Just saw a bit of encouraging news (finally)!

NY Gov Cuomo showed a chart with hospitalizations rising, but they were doubling every 2.5 days at first, every 3 days in the middle, and every 4 days toward the end (current). That really is a huge change, and if they can continue to push that down to 5 or 6 days, it will be the difference between flattening the curve and an overwhelmed hospital system. I sure hope that trend continues. If you run the numbers, doubling every 3 days is 32 times the amount of doubling every 6 days over a period of 30 days.

The confirmed cases trend is less concerning right now because when you massively increase testing you are going to catch more people, but that's a good thing. We're getting a clearer picture of reality. After testing is completely rolled out then we can hopefully see a similar positive trend at the national level. It looks like numbers out of Western Europe are also trending in the right direction, for the most part.

If China can prevent a second wave, and India and Indonesia can head this off, we may start seeing the global numbers start trending better. That would be welcome news!

Keep up the social distancing and hand washing. It's worth it!

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27 Mar 2020
01:42:36pm
re: Coronavirus

'
Doubling - whether it is every 3 or 4 or 5 or 6 days - is DOUBLING.


"... NYC clearly has a significant issue as do a number of other hot spots ..."



This story about Party Zero shows how easy it is to become a hot spot, even out in what Sarah Palin memorably called "the good parts of America":

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/23/us/coronavirus-westport-connecticut-party-zero.html

"... having my ‘welcome distraction’ turn into a stream of negative information sucks ..."



SOR/SCF are my social life, partly by inclination, partly as a result of having abruptly relocated in order to perform a socially-isolating life-consuming activity (elder care). So SOR/SCF are precisely where I drop-in to chat about the virus.

Coming into a thread to complain about the thread ... why is there no cutesy-clicky icon for holding my tongue?

Cheers,

/s/ ikeyPikey

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27 Mar 2020
03:36:11pm
re: Coronavirus

Minnesota has had four deaths so far and a mortality rate of 1% of confirmed cases. 54 are currently receiving hospital treatment. We recently converted one of our hospitals in the capital to a Covid19-only hospital with space for 50 (and 50 ventilators).

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27 Mar 2020
04:47:33pm
re: Coronavirus

IkeyPikey:

Just curious, why do you feel the need to insert the Palin quote about "...good parts of the country."? Does that advance the thread? We know that people on both sides of the political spectrum often view their political opponents and their constituents with disdain. Remember the "deplorables" comment?

Did you somehow not get the memo that we as a group have decided to leave politics off the site or are you just somehow special?

I hope a wise moderator deletes this gentleman's post.

Ernie

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APS #220693 ATA#57179

27 Mar 2020
07:33:06pm
re: Coronavirus

"Doubling - whether it is every 3 or 4 or 5 or 6 days - is DOUBLING."



Indeed, but the important point is that doubling every 3 days is 32 times the amount of doubling every 6 days over a period of 30 days. 1 patient or 32? 1,000 patients or 32,000? It makes a difference. Obviously the ultimate goal is to turn the corner and push past an exponential increase, but in the early stages small changes to the exponent make a HUGE difference over time. That was the point I was trying to make. I'd like to have the curve South Korea has and they are undoubtedly trying to flatten theirs even more.

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Suzanne

27 Mar 2020
09:56:20pm
re: Coronavirus

I know I don't have to read this post, but I see it all the time. No reason to argue who is right or wrong. It is horrible and it is what it is. I hate seeing this in this group. It should be for fun and stamp stuff only. Sorry. Going stir crazy. Now I am on to the fun stuff and stamps.

Hope everyone is safe and staying home.

Hugs to all.

Suzanne

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27 Mar 2020
10:51:41pm
re: Coronavirus

"... Just curious, why do you feel the need to insert the Palin quote about "...good parts of the country."? Does that advance the thread? ..."



"We believe that the best of America is in these small towns that we get to visit, and in these wonderful little pockets of what I call the real America. Being here with all of you hard-working very patriotic, um, very, um, pro-America areas of this great nation. This is where we find the kindness and the goodness and the courage of everyday Americans."



Some of the first hotspots for the coronavirus were "gateway" cities for international visitors and, perhaps not coincidentally, "sanctuary" cities.

But the Party Zero story comes to tell us that the "wonderful little pockets of what I call the real America" are vulnerable to a single carrier attending a single non-socially-distanced event.

Understanding the nation-wide need for social distance and other flatten-the-curve measures is essential to, well, flattening the curve.

Ms Palin set that up well, even if I misquoted her a bit.

Cheers,

/s/ ikeyPikey

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/23/us/coronavirus-westport-connecticut-party-zero.html
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28 Mar 2020
06:29:06am
re: Coronavirus

Our company extended the work from home directive until 4/30. When I had to go to office to pick up something, it felt like isolation there. Essential operations do require some to work onsite. It is end of quarter (and fiscal year) so important business time.

I doubt anything in this thread has changed any dynamic related to fear or response to the virus.


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28 Mar 2020
11:40:42am
re: Coronavirus

The UPS guy delivered some household supplies, rang the door, and took off.

It being a railroad apartment, by the time I'd walked ten/+ meters to the front door, he'd walked ten/+ meters to the elevator.

But, NYC being a tipping culture, I called after him with my usual offer:

Q/ Would you like a bottle of water?

A/ No, thanks, I'm good.

Q/ How about a roll of toilet paper?

Cheers,

/s/ ikeyPikey

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28 Mar 2020
11:44:25am
re: Coronavirus

It's the same at our office. I think we're 85% remote now. We did a conversion last week that was 100% remote and we're doing a merge today that is 100% remote. (I'm waiting on a file to come in or I'd be working on it now). We had never tried that before. I'm pleased with how smoothly we've been able to pull it off! It's amazing what motivated people can accomplish.

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29 Mar 2020
06:15:29am
re: Coronavirus

ikeyPikey, so is it really the norm to tip UPS workers?

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29 Mar 2020
06:46:19am
re: Coronavirus

I haven't attempted to read this entire thread because of its length but I saw an interesting message on a sign outside a local church--- "6 feet apart today is better than 6 feet under tomorrow." Although we are still to have our first case of any residents in this county it is good advice and drives the point home effectively.

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Collector, Moderator

29 Mar 2020
08:05:30am
re: Coronavirus

We ventured out to the grocery store just after opening. It was not crowded and everyone was generally keeping their distance. The checkout had a shield between the checkout person and the shopper at the pin pad (payment device). As for stock, very little meat but there is a normal reason. The meat dept has never stocked the meat st store opening. As we shopped one person was slowly putting the meat out. There was bread and milk but no eggs and limited cheese products. Fresh veggies (green stuff) were gone too. Several of the store staff appeared to be filling pick up orders. No one seemed to be hoarding.

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29 Mar 2020
09:34:33am
re: Coronavirus

"... ikeyPikey, so is it really the norm to tip UPS workers? ..."



I've certainly never had one express shock, and let's say about half take the water.

Anything that gets them to bring the packages up to my door, instead of dumping them in the lobby, is a good investment ... especially Costco/Kirkland drinking water, at 7c/bottle (plus the 5c/bottle deposit).

A roll of toilet paper is a little extraordinary, but we live in extraordinary times.

Cheers,

/s/ ikeyPikey (who suspects that the tipping culture varies between the been-heres and the come-heres)
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30 Mar 2020
05:23:00am
re: Coronavirus

I went to the post office this this morning because of a registered letter I had to send to my heath care insurance and thought a good time to send some stamps that some SOR members had purchased. The lady at the counter finished the registered letter and then took the other letters. 5 went to the US and 1 to Australia. She looked at me and said I don´t think we are allowed to send anymore letters to the US. She then looked in her computer and told me letters are still going out but any packages to the US are no longer allowed, Australia is OK. So if you live in the US and are awaiting a package from Germany, I don´t know if this applies if they come from another county, there may be a long delay.

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30 Mar 2020
02:16:03pm
re: Coronavirus

'
A situation so stupid that only a smart person could work their way into it.

Astrophysicist gets magnets stuck up nose while inventing coronavirus device

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/mar/30/astrophysicist-gets-magnets-stuck-up-nose-while-inventing-coronavirus-device

A regular correspondent remarks:

"As an astrophysicist he should have been able to work remotely from home. All astrophysicists, by definition, work very remotely from the things they are studying."



Cheers,

/s/ ikeyPikey

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30 Mar 2020
02:39:54pm
re: Coronavirus

A short rant about 'distancing'; there are sill a lot of people who don't seem to be getting the message. My only outlet these days for exercise is walking. We live in an area near a large park with wooded trails. We have decided not to try to walk there, others are just not respecting distances. People walk sometimes in groups of three or even more, side by side. I find myself having to jump off the trial to avoid colliding with them. Clueless. I still try to walk in my neighborhood and that's better but just last night two women came right up in back of me speed walking. One brushed right against me, mumbling 'excuse me'. I said something like 'Thanks for the virus'. Also clueless.

With Easter coming, I fully expect to see big family events with cars parked up and down our streets. Where we live people are currently just being asked not to do this. I'm afraid it's going to take more than nice to accomplish compliance.

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30 Mar 2020
03:25:27pm
re: Coronavirus

I have decided that I might as well profit from the pandemic. Why should Amazon get all the bucks? So, I am now offering a made-in-Canada toilet paper kit for only US$20. Why not CAN$20? Because Canadian dollars are damn near worthless, compared to U.S. dollars. Anyway, here's the kit:

Image Not Found

boB

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Neddie Seagoon from The Telegoons

30 Mar 2020
03:44:10pm

Auctions - Approvals
re: Coronavirus

You do realise that money particularly "paper" money will carry the virus for a vast number of days.
To help and protect you from this possible source of the virus all you have to do is place your cash in a brown envelope.
Leave it out side your front door tonight,
and I shall endeavour to remove it from your premises as soon as possible thus protecting you and your family.


Rolling On The Floor LaughingRolling On The Floor LaughingRolling On The Floor Laughing

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APS #220693 ATA#57179

30 Mar 2020
04:52:14pm
re: Coronavirus

"So, I am now offering a made-in-Canada toilet paper kit for only US$20."



Now I FINALLY understand why we're sending border guards to the Great White Northern frontier! It's YOU, isn't it Bob? You wascally wabbit!

Rolling On The Floor Laughing

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30 Mar 2020
07:15:24pm
re: Coronavirus

From the BBC website today. Expensive shopping trip!

"A man has pleaded guilty to breaching coronavirus social distancing rules by repeatedly approaching people in a supermarket queue.

Steven Mackie, 53, was arrested after getting too close to shoppers outside Tesco in Stalybridge on Saturday.

He is thought to be the first person to be charged in the UK since the new restrictions came into force.

At Stockport Magistrates' Court, Mackie was fined £635 after he admitted failing to maintain public health.

Police said Mackie, of Stamford Street, Stalybridge, was "unnecessarily out of his home" and had "continued to approach people contrary to social distancing rules" despite advice from officers"

.

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Tom in Exton, PA

31 Mar 2020
06:48:46pm

Approvals
re: Coronavirus

Crazy stuff going on out there. In a New Jersey supermarket a worker putting out groceries told a customer that he was too close to her. He told her he had Coronavirus and spit on her. He was arrested.

New Jersey schools are closed and the state (which has second highest infection rate after New York) is on lockdown. Still, police are breaking up parties! Idiots!

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31 Mar 2020
07:00:04pm
re: Coronavirus

It's still early days, of course, but Susan and I and are son and daughter-in-law are hopeful that Canada will come through the cover-19 pandemic in reasonably good shape.

The latest statistics* indicate "only" 101 deaths (3 per million population), far, far less than our neighbour to the south, the U.S., with 3,788 deaths (11 per million population). Much of that success, if I dare call it that, lies with our provincial and federal governments, which have been proactive from the beginning, and with a united front of all political parties. Canadians from coast to coast are being urged to stay at home except for necessary trips for groceries, pharmaceuticals, and emergency medical visits, and "mental health" walks outdoors.

The great majority of people are paying close attention to social distancing, going so far as stepping off sidewalks and trails in Stanley Park to avoid close contact. Most businesses, including many restaurants, are closed, as well as churches, libraries, coffee shops, massage parlours, and pubs. I think the government liquor stores are still open. I hope! Grocery stores have instituted seniors-only shopping hours, and are maintaining quite strict social distancing policies.

Much of the credit for our relatively low death rate must go to our provincial health officer, Dr. Bonnie Henry, who presents a daily status update. She couldn't have a more calming, rational voice. She is also able to present bad news without resorting to sensationalism. During one of her early updates, she got quite emotional as she reported the deaths of two residents of an elder care home. Her tears certainly weren't faked.

Bob

* The worldometers.com web site provides constantly updated information about the pandemic.

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APS #220693 ATA#57179

31 Mar 2020
10:30:50pm
re: Coronavirus

"The latest statistics* indicate "only" 101 deaths (3 per million population), far, far less than our neighbour to the south, the U.S., with 3,788 deaths (11 per million population)."



Bob, I don't think that stat is very meaningful. Your death toll is doubling every 4 days, so you will be at 11 per million in a week. The U.S. just got a head start on you. Officially by 4 days.

The numbers out of Canada where I see a lot of promise are the Total Cases numbers. You went from doubling every 3 days (3-22 to 3-25) to every 5 days (3-25 to 3-30). The U.S. also went down from every 3 days (3-22 to 3-25) to every 5 days (3-26 to 3-31). You can even see the curves bending down in the logarithmic scale. (I used worldometer for all numbers and charts for this purpose since you mentioned it).

As I indicated earlier, going from doubling every 3 days to every 6 days is a 32-fold difference over a period of only 30 days. Massive flattening of the curve! Canada is "only" a week or ten days ahead of the U.S. (per capita) in flattening the curve, but the impact will be dramatic. We all need to keep up social distancing and insisting on more and more testing, but make no mistake. The U.S. and Canada are still BOTH on upward exponential trajectories. Flattening the curve just lowers the height of the peak and pushes the date out, but absent a vaccine - which is practically impossible for widespread use in the next 6 months - this virus has to play out unless testing can get out in front of the virus. They did it in China and South Korea. It looks like Germany may be getting there, too. Can Canada be next? I hope so!!!

Lars

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31 Mar 2020
11:32:00pm
re: Coronavirus

'
Restrictions Are Slowing Coronavirus Infections, New Data Suggest

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/30/health/coronavirus-restrictions-fevers.html

https://healthweather.us/ ... the fever map and, at the bottom of the page, some excellent blog posts

Cheers,

/s/ ikeyPikey

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01 Apr 2020
02:35:06pm
re: Coronavirus

The reporters' questions in the daily pandemic briefings indicate they don't have a clue when it comes to models and modeling. They and much of the public go bonkers when the best case modeling scenario for US deaths from the virus are 100,000 to 240,000. The reporters don't understand it is just a model. It is just a forecast; not a fact.

Think about our daily weather forecasts. They are based on models that are updated multiple times each day. How accurate are our weather forecasts, especially 5 to 8 days out? And these models have had years of refinements built into them!

Think about our US weather forecasters during hurricane season. Multiple models are now available for news stations to use during their broadcasts. It has become common practice to show on TV several different model results in a single graphic for a new hurricane that is still out over the Atlantic Ocean. Each model produces a line from the current hurricane location to a point several days into the future. Note the variations in those tracks for a single hurricane on a given day. They're usually literally all over the map. However, as the days pass and more and more data are gathered and entered into the models, the various models begin to produce similar tracks. Data matters. The variations in the designs of the models become less important than the data.

The modeling that is being used to predict the outcome of our virus is relatively new and has limitations. Those limitations will always affect the results that the model spits out. However, over time, more and more data will help minimize the effects of the model's limitations and provide improved results.

So don't put too much weight on modeling-generated numbers. In fact, Drs. Fauci and Birx said they expected to be able to "push down" the best case death numbers for the US that their model is producing. They didn't make that very clear, but what they're saying is that new data today and tomorrow and in the following days is expected to produce new modeling results that show the "best case" scenario to be much better than is the case being presented by the model today. They're optimistic, but the media generally didn't pick up on that.

Tom


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Collector, Moderator

01 Apr 2020
04:31:03pm
re: Coronavirus

I think many know what modeling means.

They run with information provided so somewhat nature of the beast. Trend speculation is popular by a lot of people. Like in a hurricane forecast, the news starts speculating on worst case scenarios even when days away as if it will come true.

But, those that expect the worst are more likely prepared for the worst. One can rationalize it away by claiming it is imperfect information.


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01 Apr 2020
07:21:26pm
re: Coronavirus

I'll agree that reporters, like most everyone else in this world, have only the slightest grasp of modelling.

However, I'll quibble with your analogy.

Weather is, in its behavior, pretty much a chaotic system. Physical limitations on that chaotic behavior mean that short-term forecasts can be very good; The Weather Channel website offers hour-by-hour forecasts, for example, that are often spot-on. But the longer-term forecasts burn-off like the morning mist on a sunny day.

Sure, the earth's spin is steady, and its exposure to sunlight is rhythmic. But the atmosphere is a swirling soup - a very large swirling soup - so predicting what's gonna be at any single point is like guessing which grain of sand from the beach is gonna hit you in the eye when the wave crashes over your head.

Epidemics are, by comparison, almost deterministic. You can look back, and see how many infectees infect someone new and, if the population's behavior does not change, the math is easy & reliable.

The problem, of course, is that people react, and adapt ... so predicting the course of an epidemic is like predicting the local weather for Gotterdammerung, Mississippi, when that town is all over the map.

Cheers,

/s/ ikeyPikey

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Gudgie

P!ease ask by private message if you wish my home address.

01 Apr 2020
08:17:40pm
re: Coronavirus

I have been self isolating now for 17 days. Other than a trip to the mailbox, I haven't ventured outside my garden. I've used the time to tidy the garage, catch up with correspondence, finally complete my Machin collection and begin work on an American collection. If I get tired of those things I catch up on Game of Thrones, Homeland, and House of Cards. These last few days I've been phoned by old friends whom I hadn't spoken to since retiring over 2 years ago and I've followed their lead and phoned some others too.

It looks like we are about to be confined for at least another 12 weeks. While in the garden we've been chatting, strictly 2 metres apart, to our neighbours. Large shopping orders have been delivered by the store, and our local community is making deliveries from the village shop.

Having observed this thread from the beginning and those who have continually indulged in blaming media, politicians, medics, etc. I just want all of you to know that life in lockdown is not too bad. We are managing just fine, planning the next 3 months, and reconnecting with old friends. What scares me more than anything though is this. If either myself or my lovely wife catch coronavirus and are taken to hospital, the last time we may see each other would probably be as the ambulance takes us away from home. Not only that, if I, or any of my 4 brothers and 1 sister succumbed to it, no more than 2 family members can attend the graveside. You can forget about a wake.

Coronavirus is real and not going away for some time. I watch and listen to news reports throughout the day and by evening I have heard everything 10 or more times. I then switch on my computer and check Stamporama forums. I am amazed at the continual sniping by adults on a stamp website about a DEADLY serious subject. Instead of multiple contributions here, pick up your tweezers again. You might actually enjoy it.


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APS #220693 ATA#57179

02 Apr 2020
12:02:05am
re: Coronavirus

Gudgie,

I just finished Black Sails tonight and Game of Thrones starts tomorrow!

I agreed with your post (especially the part about being separated - perhaps forever - in case of hospitalization - terrifying!) except the last paragraph. There are two points I would make:

1. I don't watch the news but once or twice a day. I never have. So I'm not burned out by the time I check in here.

2. I don't use social media or post to online news threads. I rarely look at the "Off Topic" threads here at all. But if I see factually wrong information, I'm going to call it out. Whether someone claims a stamp is authentic when it's obviously a fake, or someone says the corona virus is a hoax, I sometimes chose not to ignore it. Especially when skeptics are putting my life, and the lives of my loved ones, at risk through ignorant, irresponsible behavior and messaging. Exposing misinformation in a forum like this is more likely to have a positive effect than a random rant. Even if I don't agree with a post someone else makes here, if they are a philatelist, they are, by definition, an analytical thinker and I tend to give more consideration to what they say. Hopefully that's a two-way street.

Lars


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02 Apr 2020
07:22:57am
re: Coronavirus

ikeypikey,

I agree my analogy does not fit the virus projections but just noting how people (media and individuals) handle scientific information. The horoscopes published daily do not mention it!? There was a good meme on that.

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Neddie Seagoon from The Telegoons

02 Apr 2020
09:17:36am

Auctions - Approvals
re: Coronavirus

Jings!...Crivvens!...Help Ma Boab!

I don't give a hoot about statistics, cos there are lies, damned lies and statistics.

Whether you are a half full or half empty person doesn't matter.

Numbers, trends, sets, projections etc etc can be juggled any way you like. (I've done this in the past)

My interpretation of the numbers is this:-

Stay away from everybody, stay at home, don't let any one into your house or within two metres of you and pray to your God that you and yours come out of this alive.




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02 Apr 2020
10:31:11am
re: Coronavirus

Image Not Found

Lookin' for this one, Al ?

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02 Apr 2020
11:13:58am

Auctions
re: Coronavirus

Well stated;

"Stay away from everybody, stay at home, don't let any one into your house or within two metres of you and pray to your God that you and yours come out of this alive."



Doug
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Collector, Moderator

02 Apr 2020
11:21:49am
re: Coronavirus

Yep.

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BrightonPete

02 Apr 2020
11:43:19am
re: Coronavirus

And just now I receive a text from landlady. She is putting the place up for sale now. Video to be taken Tuesday. What a time to sell!

What a time to be looking for another place!

Why? That's all I can ask!

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02 Apr 2020
12:34:28pm
re: Coronavirus

BrightonPete, that is horrible. So sorry to hear that. I hope you find a great place with as few hassles as possible.

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Collector, Moderator

02 Apr 2020
03:05:50pm
re: Coronavirus

Why sell now?????

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BrightonPete

02 Apr 2020
03:25:08pm
re: Coronavirus

No job so maybe she can't pay mortgage. Tenants in other apartment were a bother that she doesn't want to have to deal with again. They abandoned it on Monday. At least they cleaned up the place.

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02 Apr 2020
03:33:10pm
re: Coronavirus

'
Trivia Question: What did they call it before they called it "social distancing" ?

Perhaps some of you doc-watching history-reading folks will know the answer.

My oldest suggests that perhaps it fell under "hygiene".

Cheers,

/s/ ikeyPikey

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Neddie Seagoon from The Telegoons

02 Apr 2020
03:37:03pm

Auctions - Approvals
re: Coronavirus

Jings!...Crivvens!...Help Ma Boab!

Social Distancing?

Naw!

GET TAE!!

(normally followed by an expletive)

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02 Apr 2020
04:46:45pm
re: Coronavirus

"Whether you are a half full or half empty person doesn't matter."



I'm neither. The curse of an engineering background. The glass is neither half full nor half empty. It is, quite simply, too big for it's current use. Laughing

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02 Apr 2020
04:48:09pm
re: Coronavirus

Sorry to hear about that Brighton Pete!

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P!ease ask by private message if you wish my home address.

02 Apr 2020
07:17:43pm
re: Coronavirus

So after another day confined to home, trying to buy paint for 2 bedrooms my wife wants to decorate. I spent another 2 hours phoning old friends and family, then began sorting French stamps. I turned on Stamporama and after checking auctions and approvals for 4 countries I came on to this forum.

I hadn't expected my contribution would stop those who argue about stuff which only they can find to argue about, but I was pleased 7 people took the time to read my letter and press the like button. I wasn't looking for endorsement, I was simply saying those people who sit on here looking for subjects to disagree with, or correct the writer actually bore the pants of the majority of the rest of us.

I must say I was surprised by the response from larsdog. First he says how much he agreed with most of what I had written, but he disagreed with the last paragraph. He goes on to talk about how he does not watch news,nor does he participate in social media. ?????

Where is the criticism? For his benefit I will restate what I said in my final paragraph. Since I'm typing this on a kindle I am unable to cut and paste, so I will simply repeat as I remembered it.

I said Coronavirus is real and will be with us for some time.

I said I watch news throughout the day, hearing each report around 10 times, before I switch on my computer and log on to the Stamporama website.

I said I am irritated by people who treat this subject as a forum for sniping at others when it is of major concern to myself and many others.

Finally I suggested those who profess to know all about Coronavirus should lay of the vitriol and indulge in the hobby we all joined this site to promote.

The first sentence is 100% factual. Sentences 2 and 3 express honestly how I feel and spend my day. Neither he nor anyone else can disagree with those sentences.

The last sentence expressed a wish for those who argue here to go easy and use this site more responsibly. Perhaps Larsdog could enlighten myself and others if he disagreed with that sentence, and if so, what does he disagree with? He may have a different opinion from me or others, but don't treat me or this site as a football. Respect others. If you do, you may get some more respect when you express an opinion.

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02 Apr 2020
07:51:34pm
re: Coronavirus

vir·tue sig·nal·ing

noun

the action or practice of publicly expressing opinions or sentiments intended to demonstrate one's good character or the moral correctness of one's position on a particular issue.


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APS #220693 ATA#57179

02 Apr 2020
10:37:41pm
re: Coronavirus

"Perhaps Larsdog could enlighten myself"



OK

"He goes on to talk about how he does not watch news"



I didn't say that. I said:

"I don't watch the news but once or twice a day. I never have. So I'm not burned out by the time I check in here."



Even with all that's going on, I try to limit myself to one or two news broadcasts per day. The point being, when you said:

"I watch and listen to news reports throughout the day and by evening I have heard everything 10 or more times."



I can't say I agree with that for me personally. Perhaps I should have said "that doesn't apply to me" instead of "I agreed with your post ... except the last paragraph."

Regardless, the main point is this: This is an "Off Topic" forum. By definition, it's not generally related to philately (although there are a few comments relevant to philately). For those of us who haven't been saturated with news such that we have "heard everything 10 or more times", we may visit here first, or maybe last, after visiting some philatelic forums and after using our tweezers many times to boot.

Nobody is required to read this thread. I agreed with your post except that the people that do post here don't need a lecture from you. I tried to say that in a more polite way.

You did, however, add a couple of extra points in your restatement:

"I said I am irritated by people who treat this subject as a forum for sniping at others when it is of major concern to myself and many others."



It's of major concern to everyone, not just you. There is precious little we can do, but we can challenge false statements and voice our opinions, especially to our elected officials. If you think that is "sniping", you definitely misread the intent at the very least.

Then you added this zinger:

"Finally I suggested those who profess to know all about Coronavirus should lay of the vitriol and indulge in the hobby we all joined this site to promote."



First of all, I would wager that Dr. Fauci would claim there is more he doesn't know than he does know about SARS-Cov-2, so I don't know who you were referring to. I am almost entirely ignorant myself. What I do know how to do is read an exponential growth curve. There are many processes that follow an exponential curve. This is one of them. The data being reported did NOT match the rhetoric being expressed ("it's under control"). I don't see the problem with calling that out. Now the government is giving a more honest assessment of the situation. I hope they are presenting a worst-case range, because even the low end of what they are saying now is beyond what I had imagined. I'm hopeful that additional testing and mitigation factors will lower the toll. I, too, have family members at-risk. If people are honest about the risks and behave accordingly, perhaps neither of us will face that terrifying scenario you described. I certainly hope so!

One thing that I am seeing in the numbers is that the curve is bending down (when looking at the log scale). Infections are still growing, but the rate is slowing a bit, and that is great news! Hopefully we are having a significant impact on flattening the curve. I looked at Canada's curve of couple of days ago and saw the same trend. I know that doesn't PROVE anything, but it is a reason to hope.

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03 Apr 2020
10:46:03am
re: Coronavirus

Color me confused.

If everyone is dying to get out of the house, and donating blood is an acceptable excuse, and elective surgeries are canx'd, why aren't the blood banks full?

After all, the 'permanent' donor centers are accustomed to sterile technique, so it is a lot safer faux-necessity errand than the grocery store.

Further, the NYBC has fiddled their online appointment system to half capacity or less (thus achieving social distancing within), and they are checking temperatures & symptoms outside the door, so what's the problem?

Cheers,

/s/ ikeyPikey

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Neddie Seagoon from The Telegoons

03 Apr 2020
12:05:05pm

Auctions - Approvals
re: Coronavirus

"Color me confused."



Your not the only one.

My mother in law is 86. She is part of the group that has been advised to self isolate for 13 weeks. No family visits, no going out even for exercise.

Yet!

She has to go to the doctors for part of her normal treatment of her ongoing ailments.

She has to get a bus there and back.

Self isolation except when it suits Big Brother!!


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03 Apr 2020
12:44:57pm
re: Coronavirus

"If everyone is dying to get out of the house, and donating blood is an acceptable excuse, and elective surgeries are canx'd, why aren't the blood banks full?"


It's a fair question.

The permitted shelf life of both whole blood and red blood cells is relatively short (up to 35 and 42 days) so regular new donations are required even if the level of demand falls in the short term.

I guess that many regular donors may be deterred from donating in the current circumstances.

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APS #220693 ATA#57179

03 Apr 2020
11:17:33pm
re: Coronavirus

It is also possible that there is a desire to get a large number of donations to see if plasma from previously exposed patients (with antibodies in their blood) might help those most critical. As frantic as everything is right now, I can understand why they wouldn't want to explicitly say that since many donors would want to know what the tests said about their donation, and worse, some may misrepresent their past with AIDS or hepatitus in hopes of getting a back door diagnosis. Just a thought.

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03 Apr 2020
11:21:24pm
re: Coronavirus

'
I've become accustomed to thinking cynically about the blood banks.

If I was selling the stuff for the prices they get, I'd also be begging for more.

In a large country like the USA, blood banks with a better, uh, flow can sell the stuff to any hospital or clinic that needs blood or blood products, whether it is in another state or, for that matter, another country.

So it was only when the US Surgeon General recently called for donations that I chose to believe that stocks might really be low, and to heed the call.

I only donated once in 2019, if memory serves, but donated at least 4x in 2018, so it was 'time' and, as I said above, a legit reason to bolt the house.

Back in the 1950s, my mother took me along when she donated blood each year - the American Red Cross would set up in the basement of our building - I was very little, perhaps three or four years old - and I began taking my kids along when I donated blood - from when they were perhaps three of four years old - and the latter tell me that watching their parent get stuck with a needle and blood flowing into a bag makes quite an impression - and I just nod knowingly & agree that, yes, it does.

It was a proud moment for me when the subject came-up one night, and I heard two grown daughters discussing the various places to donate around town, agreeing that the very old lady in the blood mobile right in front of the department store in the center of town had a magical (painless) touch. Next time, I sought her out - and they were right.

Cheers,

/s/ ikeyPikey

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04 Apr 2020
06:59:22pm
re: Coronavirus

Please correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't the rate of deaths from Covid-19 serve as a reasonable measurement of the disease's impact on specific populations? Assuming the numbers we're getting are reasonably accurate?

My wife and I have noted that that as of April 3, six deaths per million have occurred in Canada, whereas a great many other countries have far higher death rates. The death rate in the U.S. was more than four times higher (25/million), Luxembourg more than eight times higher (50 per million), and Belgium the highest at 111 deaths per million, more than 18 times higher than Canada. (These numbers come from Worldometers.info.

It seems that we are benefitting from the timely and reasonable responses of both the federal and provincial governments, who all seem to be working from the same page. Of course, there is the disturbing news that Wuhan has been locked down again after people who had supposedly recovered from the disease are once again showing symptoms. It's also troubling that we really have no idea how many people are currently ill, how many "super spreaders" there are, and how significant aerosols are in spreading the disease are. If the aerosols are a problem, there are few ways that we can protect ourselves other than complete, airtight isolation. For now, we are staying as far away from people as possible, avoiding elevators, and washing hands constantly. We were able to have some items delivered by our pharmacy, but groceries and booze have been a challenge.

One of the best things: Every night at 7:00, people in our densely populated neighbourhood of mid- and high-rises come out on their balconies to bang drums, clap, blow horns, cheer, play musical instruments, and clap in support of health care workers. It's almost deafening, but in a good way. And I'd say about 98 percent of people are paying close attention to social distancing. Those who don't? Perhaps they are helping to clean the gene pool! Or they are immune to the disease, like Trump seems to be. If he doesn't want to wear a mask, perhaps he could send his to Canada rather than prohibiting the export of masks to Canada. Speaking of which, we learned today that much of the material that's used to make masks comes from Canada.

Bob

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05 Apr 2020
01:56:04am
re: Coronavirus

"Please correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't the rate of deaths from Covid-19 serve as a reasonable measurement of the disease's impact on specific populations? Assuming the numbers we're getting are reasonably accurate? "



Yes, indeed! But there are three things to consider:

1. Death rate is a TRAILING indicator - someone may be placed on a vent DAYS after being hospitalized and not die until WEEKS later - after waiting for DAYS or WEEKS to even be tested. So, yes, death rate is probably the most accurate measure, but it tells you more about where you've been versus where you are going.

2. Amazingly, not all death rates are equal. Apparently, there are some jurisdictions that ONLY consider COVID-19 deaths as reportable if they happened in a hospital, instead of a nursing home, etc.

3. The starting point varies by country. If you compare Canada to the U.S., the numbers look good. But according to worldometers.info, there isn't that much difference. Canada was at 6 deaths per million on April 4. The U.S. was at 5 deaths per million 8 days ago and the U.S. outbreak started sooner. Absolute values per million are rather meaningless when we are still climbing the curve and we started at different times. Once we flatten the curve in the U.S. and Canada (and elsewhere), we can reasonably compare ourselves to Singapore and South Korea.

So given the above, the death rate for a particular country or jurisdiction is likely most useful in analyzing the current trend in that country or jurisdiction, but lagging by several weeks from any policy changes. Comparing your country with other countries before hitting your peak is probably not very informative.

Canada is more sparsely populated than the U.S., so you would assume a bit slower spread. Canada also had its first documented case after the U.S., so we can assume Canada is at an earlier part of the curve.

Using worldometers.info, just look at the graphs for cases and deaths for Canada and draw your own conclusions. Then look at the same charts for the U.S. and see how much difference you see. Now look at South Korea. That's where we need to get to.

When I look at the infection curves for Canada and the U.S., I see Canada doing it better, but we are both on an exponential growth curve that is scary. And, yes, I consider the infection data to be even MORE suspect than the death data, but you can only work with what you have. I was just pleased that the U.S. gov't FINALLY made a statement that was consistent with the data many of us have observed for weeks. I hope your government did a better job than ours in being honest about the trends.

Europe should be peaking soon. U.S. probably mid-April. Canada around May 1?. After that, keep an eye on India and Africa, plus a resurgence in China.

We are all just trying to minimize the damage until we can get a vaccine - but that's several months away. (Normally, that would be 12-18 months, but given the severity of COVID-19, I would not be surprised to see a vaccine - at least for "at risk" folks - by October).

I personally believe that social distancing is having a PROFOUND effect not only in Canada, but in the U.S. as well. We are just as appalled as you are by the images of kids on the beach in Florida, but that's really the exception here. I've been working from home for a month and had to drive in to the office yesterday because my FTP speed was too slow. There were only two people there (normally 100+). Management is ON IT because they REALLY don't want us to interact right now, so I expect a fix to the FTP speed problem ASAP.

Bottom line: Looking at the numbers from Canada, I think you have good reason to be cautiously optimistic, and social distancing is working, but we ALL need to press for on-demand testing. Yesterday!!!
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Neddie Seagoon from The Telegoons

05 Apr 2020
06:52:19am

Auctions - Approvals
re: Coronavirus

Testing Numbers.

How many per day?

UK is aiming for 100,000 per day.

Population of UK 60 million, Therefore No of days required = 600

These figures are rough, many factors need to be taken into account, as accuracy? what? where? when? who? why? how?

I do not have the solutions so I do not expect my Government to have the best solution as how long is a piece of string?

Once the lockdown is complete millions of people who have stayed safe and isolated themselves will be released on the streets. They will then be open to the virus and you will get another spike in cases and another lockdown.

I said before "Just pray to your God that you and yours are alive at the end of this"




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05 Apr 2020
07:16:06am
re: Coronavirus

"UK is aiming for 100,000 per day.

Population of UK 60 million, Therefore No of days required = 600"


Yes, these figures put the challenge in perspective.

Remember too that government is reporting the number of tests performed rather than the number of individual patients tested and many patients require multiple tests over time.


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05 Apr 2020
12:17:58pm
re: Coronavirus

"UK is aiming for 100,000 per day.

Population of UK 60 million, Therefore No of days required = 600"



The testing rate/capability is human behavior and, therefor, also a moving target.

Sample collection will change, processing will change, results will be faster, etc.

The immediate goals are to test the symptomatic, and the exposed (health care workers, etc), and door-to-door in critical neighborhoods.

The intermediate goal is targeted testing, eg, clearing employees returning to work at specific workplaces, and contact tracing (once things get down to the level that contact tracing becomes relevant again), etc.

Testing every single person, period, is a more distant goal.

Cheers,

/s/ ikeyPikey

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05 Apr 2020
05:25:36pm
re: Coronavirus

'
Nice stories from people who are helping:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/04/opinion/sunday/coronavirus-america.html

Cheers,

/s/ ikeyPikey

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Neddie Seagoon from The Telegoons

05 Apr 2020
06:39:58pm

Auctions - Approvals
re: Coronavirus

News just in:-

The British Prime Minister, Boris Johnson, admitted to hospital with covid-19.

He has been in quarantine for 10 days but his temperature is still high so his doctors have him in hospital for tests.


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06 Apr 2020
07:28:56am
re: Coronavirus

We went for a drive Sunday around 12pm (had to go to post office to pick up something from letter box) so took the opportunity to see what was open.

The most interesting discovery was the golf course (essential business?) was extremely busy with the greens full of golfers and the parking lot full. This was on Palm Sunday around noon. It was a near perfect day.

I feel sorry for other businesses that were not allowed to be open (unless carry out) such as arts and crafts and electronics stores given Walmart selling similar items. If Hobby Lobby had a grocery section they would be open except on Sundays! Many of those let go no longer have employer provided health insurance so having to pay extra for COBRA if they can afford it. This is the economic impact to be felt soon.


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Harvey

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06 Apr 2020
08:46:17am
re: Coronavirus

I'm amazed the golf course was open and packed. In my area of Nova Scotia there are fines of up to $1000 if you refuse to social distance. At first there were warnings, now several fines have been handed out and cars have been seized if you are parked in parks that are all officially closed. I admit I go for a drive occasionally to get out of the house but visiting friends is out. A friend I sometimes visit for supper delivered a roast beef meal last night and left it on the front seat of my car. We have to take this seriously or it may take a very long time, and many deaths, before it goes away!!!

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06 Apr 2020
10:28:35am
re: Coronavirus

'
Social Distancing Failure at the Bronx Zoo

Q/ Were we not always social distancing from tigers ?

https://www.ynetnews.com/article/rJqR11Uuv8

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/06/nyregion/bronx-zoo-tiger-coronavirus.html

Cheers,

/s/ ikeyPikey

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Neddie Seagoon from The Telegoons

06 Apr 2020
11:30:58am

Auctions - Approvals
re: Coronavirus

The Scottish Chief Medical Officer had to resign last night.

She was caught travelling to her second home with her family, twice.

She was the one telling us to stay at home!!!

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06 Apr 2020
01:29:53pm
re: Coronavirus

Our golf course is open to members only. We don't check in and members play free, so there is no human interaction. Only one person per cart, except family members can be in same cart. We are expected to maintain social distancing, and I'd say at least 90% do - like at the grocery. (I live on the course, so I see a lot of golfers go by daily). The one rule change is that you have to leave the flag in. They don't want anyone touching the flag pole. They put a pool noodle in the hole so your ball is only 1/2" lower than the green so it's easy to retrieve without touching anything else. It's probably less risky than pumping gas and a great way to get some fresh air and exercise!

I played 9 holes Friday. It was easier to maintain proper distance on the golf course than it is in the grocery store. I even have a set of rules for COVID-19 golf:

1. The flagstick counts as a person. Social distancing guidelines specify that if your ball is within 6 feet of the hole, it's a gimme, as long as you hold your breath retrieving it. No more putts of under 6 feet!

2. There is a 6 foot radius where you can relocate your ball, as long as it's no closer to the hole. That can help with bunkers and creeks.

3. One should never be "out of bounds" during the quarantine! That's like the kids on spring break in Florida. Since we can't BE out of bounds, we never WENT out of bounds, so any shot that goes OOB no longer exists. Automatic Mulligan.

I may break 90 yet!

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Harvey

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06 Apr 2020
02:10:42pm
re: Coronavirus

In my humble opinion all parks, golf courses, beaches, etc. should be closed. But I'm not a golfer!

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06 Apr 2020
03:42:37pm
re: Coronavirus

To all of our "friends across the pond", I just watched the Queen's speech. I have to admit, I was inspired. I'm a fan! She's tough. "Britons never, never shall be slaves."

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FJP95WKJQjg&t=192s

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06 Apr 2020
10:24:05pm

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re: Coronavirus

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06 Apr 2020
11:13:24pm
re: Coronavirus

"In my humble opinion all parks, golf courses, beaches, etc. should be closed. But I'm not a golfer!"



I my humble opinion, I think it depends on how it's done and whether the rules are followed. I have no problem with enforcement of social distancing. If there are a few bad actors, issue fines. If there is widespread disregard, shut it down. Tennis courts and golf courses offer a unique opportunity to get some fresh air and exercise, and still maintain proper distancing. As long as person to person contact is eliminated (i.e., you don't have to physically check in), I don't see the harm. My son and I played 9 holes tonight and never got within 10 feet of anyone else.

Our golf course only allows members with their own carts to play now. No guests. No rentals. And only family members can ride together in a cart. They even have a rule to keep the flag in the hole so nobody touches the flag stick.

Parks and beaches have the problem of maintaining social distancing. That's easy on a golf course and tennis court. Very difficult on a beach or in a park. I understand some folks want to use the walking trails, but unless there is a mechanism to prevent a faster walker overtaking a slower walker, I'm not sure how that would work.

I do agree, however, if distancing rules are routinely ignored, the golf course or tennis court should be shut down.

Lars

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APS #156650

07 Apr 2020
09:40:28am
re: Coronavirus

I haven't read one single post anywhere asking this question: If we are fighting a WAR on Covid-19, doesn't that make all of us the soldiers on the front lines? So shouldn't we all be in bootcamp getting ready to fight? Why don't we do everything we can to make ourselves TOUGHER AND STRONGER to fight this.

First - Let's strive to eliminate lung irritants from our homes - smoke, strong chemical smells, vaping, fragrance defusers, anything that emits fumes, dust. Did you know that perfumes can trigger asthma attacks?

Second - Let's strengthen our lungs with some aerobic exercise appropriate to our age, health and level of fitness and practice abdominal breathing.

Third - Diabetes is a risk factor - let's try to eat healthier.

Fourth - High blood pressure is also a danger. Let's try to watch our sodium intake and work to improve our cardiovascular health.

Fifth - LET’S DO EVERYTHING WE CAN TO PREVENT THE SPREAD OF THIS DISEASE! STAY HOME! WASH YOUR HANDS!

LET’S KICK SOME VIRAL ASS!


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07 Apr 2020
03:03:00pm
re: Coronavirus

A non-religious Amen, Philatelia! My wife and I are trying to stay healthy. She teaches fitness four times a week, or did before Covid-19. I'm more of a couch potato, partly because of rheumatoid arthritis and osteoarthritis, both of which can make exercise an ordeal. But I try to "eat right" because of high blood pressure. I do have a hard time avoiding alcohol, especially these days. Anyhow...

I have to say that one of the best "health" decisions my wife and I made together after we married was to emigrate to Canada. We are still American citizens — it's very expensive and time consuming to end U.S. citizenship, and frankly I don't trust the American government to continue my Vietnam Nam War disability pension if I were to drop my American citizenship. We moved first to Ontario, and then a couple of years later, in 1971, I asked for a transferred to British Columbia. In light of the Covid-19 pandemic, it seems we couldn't have made a better choice.

Yesterday, the Canadian Broadcasting Corp. published an article explaining why BC has done so much better than other provinces, notably Ontario and Quebec, and better than most countries, in dealing with the coronavirus. See Why B.C. is flattening the COVID-19 curve while numbers in central Canada surge. Dr. Bonnie Henry, our Provincial Health Officer, deserves our respect for her intelligent, humane response to the Covid-19 crisis. The video link in the story says much about her professionalism and personality.

This news just came in: Vancouver has closed Stanley Park, the southern border of which is just half a block from our apartment, to vehicular traffic. Why? Because, despite BC's relatively strong response to Covid-19, and despite the fact that parking lots have been closed for a week, some people have been parking illegally so they can walk on the Seawall Promenade that circles the park. Susan and I have avoided walking there because too many people — ignorant jerks! — were ignoring social-distancing guidelines. Maybe now we can start walking there again!

Bob

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07 Apr 2020
05:58:36pm
re: Coronavirus

'
Staggering Surge Of NYers Dying In Their Homes Suggests City Is Undercounting Coronavirus Fatalities

Curve Watchers Beware: not everything is in the curve.

Perhaps the governor will order blood samples to be collected from every corpse, so's we can, at least, sort it out at our leisure.

Cheers,

/s/ ikeyPikey

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07 Apr 2020
09:58:02pm
re: Coronavirus

The singing mailman from Chicago, John Prine, has just passed away due to the Covid-19 virus. He was one of my favorite singer/songwriters for most of my adult life. I saw him in concert at the Des Moines Civic Center with Steve Goodman many years ago. His music will live on, may he rest in peace.

Linus

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08 Apr 2020
06:22:48am
re: Coronavirus

My roommate in college liked John Prine. He had an interesting style.

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Neddie Seagoon from The Telegoons

08 Apr 2020
11:56:13am

Auctions - Approvals
re: Coronavirus

While out for our daily exercise, a walk in the park, allowed by Her Britannic Majesty's Government during this emergency we could hear a wood pecker rat-a-tat-tatting away in the distance.
A few moments later we managed to spot him on a tree hammering away. It was the first time we had been able to locate him.

Isn't nature wonderful.

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APS #156650

08 Apr 2020
12:05:43pm
re: Coronavirus

This thread is really looooooooooooong. It takes forever to scroll down to new posts. Hardworking moderators - do you think it might be time to start another thread? Just a little suggestion. Thanks

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Harvey

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08 Apr 2020
12:09:37pm
re: Coronavirus

The thread is long and takes a few seconds to load but for me it always seems to go to the last of what I have already read. I suppose if you were checking it out for the first time it would take a while to get to the end.

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08 Apr 2020
12:33:20pm
re: Coronavirus

"... It takes forever to scroll down to new posts ..."



Clearly, you should visit more often, so that your last-visited point is further along.

Hallmark just gave away two million greeting cards ... brilliant !

https://greetings.hallmark.com/careenough/

Cheers,

/s/ ikeyPikey
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08 Apr 2020
12:37:16pm
re: Coronavirus

"Curve Watchers Beware: not everything is in the curve.

Perhaps the governor will order blood samples to be collected from every corpse, so's we can, at least, sort it out at our leisure."



Ikey Pikey,

You make a good point, but I don't think we would need to do blood tests at all. How may people died at home of non-COVID-19 issues because they were afraid to go to the hospital, where they could have been saved? Would that not be a COVID-19 related death? What about someone who commits suicide because of layoffs? Shouldn't that count as part of the cost of this terrible virus? If you subtract the expected number of deaths from the actual total for 2020, I think that may be the best measure you can get of the TRUE cost of SARS-Cov-2 (COVID-19).

I don't just watch the curve for a measure of the cost of the virus, but hoping to see some flattening and then a downturn in new cases so we know the peak has past. It will still take a while to clear the backlog in the hospitals, but then we may be able to slowly ease some of the restrictions we put in place to flatten the curve. There has been rather dramatic flattening of the curve for the US and Canada. Canada did it sooner, so they are likely to take a smaller hit per capita.

I fear we will be forced to maintain SOME level of flattening until a vaccine is widely available.

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08 Apr 2020
10:36:58pm
re: Coronavirus

From where I am sitting the thread is too long. I read it every day, but when I open this thread I now walk away and make a coffee. That way I am not sitting waiting for the thread to jump down to where I last read it. I thought I had a good internet connection, but obviously not good enough. There's a bottleneck somewhere between us. A new thread would help.

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APS #220693 ATA#57179

08 Apr 2020
10:46:04pm
re: Coronavirus

I got to the latest post in under two seconds with no scrolling required. I don't know if it's an ISP issue or a browser issue, but it isn't universal.

Lars

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08 Apr 2020
11:10:33pm
re: Coronavirus

It's useful to keep the thread intact to revisit some of the earlier posts, such as:

Mar 26:

"The USA has the most reported cases IF you want to believe China. Additionally, while the US is ranked 1st in reported cases but ranks 6th in deaths. This speaks incredibly well for the US healthcare system and brave folks who work in it."



My reply was:

"True, but deaths are a trailing indicator. See where China, Italy, and the US are on April 15. And factor in population size as well. Italy should be played out by then because they have a smaller population. "



Still a week to go until April 15. USA takes over #2 spot tomorrow on total deaths. Easily takes the top spot before April 15. I also have a lot of good things to say about the US healthcare system and brave folks who work in it. It's the catastrophic failure of the Federal government that needs to be called on the carpet!

Mar 31:

"The latest statistics* indicate "only" 101 deaths (3 per million population), far, far less than our neighbour to the south, the U.S., with 3,788 deaths (11 per million population). Much of that success, if I dare call it that, lies with our provincial and federal governments, which have been proactive from the beginning, and with a united front of all political parties. Canadians from coast to coast are being urged to stay at home except for necessary trips for groceries, pharmaceuticals, and emergency medical visits, and "mental health" walks outdoors. "



Today, Canada has 11 deaths per million. There are other metrics that show Canada on a MUCH more favorable curve than the US, but both countries are still seeing exponential growth so using deaths per million now is premature. Deaths are a trailing indicator, and as Ikey Pikey pointed out, reporting of even deaths is suspect in many cases. That will need to be done well after the fact by actuaries.

I know the thread is long, but the loss of continuity may not be worth the split. Maybe start a new thread called Coronavirus light?

Lars

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08 Apr 2020
11:45:02pm
re: Coronavirus

"... Would that not be a COVID-19 related death? ..."



Someone gets Covid-19, then they develop a secondary bacterial infection (pneumonia), then their heart works very hard, then they die of a heart attack or stroke.

Sorting & counting death certificates by cause of death will never get you to a solid count of deaths attributable to Covid-19, because experienced people with informed opinions will still differ over where that chain-of-events could have been broken.

Even auditing all of those individual medical records, one-by-one, will never get you to a solid count of deaths attributable to Covid-19.

However, medical records auditing would help plan mitigation of the next pandemic.

"... If you subtract the expected number of deaths from the actual total for 2020, I think that may be the best measure you can get of the TRUE cost of SARS-Cov-2 (COVID-19) ..."



In early 1991, Israel was hit by 39 Scud missiles. When it was all over, the government proudly announced that only one person had died during a missile attack ... senior citizen, heart attack, what can you do.

Meanwhile, a few weeks after that, statisticians were pointing-out that the country suffered more than 300 net additional deaths in the time of the missile attacks.

Yes, computing net additional deaths in the time of the pandemic is likely to be the only useful number we'll ever have.

Cheers,

/s/ ikeyPikey (whose cheap-as-dirt entry-level internet connection loads this thread in about 2 seconds while streaming Netflix)
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09 Apr 2020
12:59:14am
re: Coronavirus

I must say, I enjoy snark, especially subtle snark, but this is BRILLIANT!

"/s/ ikeyPikey (whose cheap-as-dirt entry-level internet connection loads this thread in about 2 seconds while streaming Netflix)"



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APS #220693 ATA#57179

09 Apr 2020
01:06:43am
re: Coronavirus

"Yes, computing net additional deaths in the time of the pandemic is likely to be the only useful number we'll ever have."



I'm just surprised that you didn't mention the folks that WOULD have died of influenza if they didn't die of SARS-Cov-2 first, and vice versa. Exact numbers are not really possible.
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APS #156650

09 Apr 2020
05:02:44am
re: Coronavirus

What browser are you using? Maybe the problem some of us are having with the long thread is specific to our device. I’m using an iPad Pro with safari and high speed Internet.

Does anyone else remember the golden days on Stamporama when someone would immediately be offered helpful suggestions if they were having site usage problems? Now the trend seems to be “Screw you, mine is FINE.” Sickening how the level of polite discourse has nosedived in the past few years. And, to answer your question, Ikey, that is why I have become hesitant to post. I’m too thin skinned and sick right now - I just don’t have the energy to bicker, nitpick and debate every issue. It’s too exhausting. I’d rather have fun doing something else more pleasant.

In any case, we have split numerous threads in the past, I didn’t think it would generate a debate. Just goes to show how difficult it is to reach a consensus on any subject with a large, diverse group. Anyways, the problem is easily solved for those of us with lag - skip the long threads. Toodles!




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Collector, Moderator

09 Apr 2020
07:21:21am
re: Coronavirus

I will discuss with admins to see if this thread should be locked.

The Polynesian thread is the slowest loading to me and likely due to all image content.

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Neddie Seagoon from The Telegoons

09 Apr 2020
07:30:09am

Auctions - Approvals
re: Coronavirus

I've started a Coronavirus 2 Thread.

That way we can leave the Coronavirus with its 360 posts!!

When Coronavirus 2 thread is too long we can start a Coronavirus 3 etc etc etc

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09 Apr 2020
08:35:07am
re: Coronavirus

My local news is starting to say things like, "light at the end of the tunnel", "possible easing of restrictions" etc. I predict people will start demanding that we go into "the next phase" (whatever that is) soon.

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Tom in Exton, PA

09 Apr 2020
11:15:09am

Approvals
re: Coronavirus

Per adding up collateral deaths due to the epidemic...
On Friday a fellow I knew in my model car hobby died. He fell off a ladder at home and landed head first on concrete. Circumstantially if we didn’t have this lockdown he would have safely been at work. But instead he was home and decided to get some house work done. Sad.

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APS #220693 ATA#57179

09 Apr 2020
11:47:58am
re: Coronavirus

Tom,

Sad to hear of the loss.

Lars

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APS #220693 ATA#57179

11 Apr 2020
12:34:15am
re: Coronavirus

Sadly, the U.S. surpassed the half million mark today for confirmed SARS-CoV-2 cases.

Remember when I posted:

"So my prediction for the U.S. is:
March 31 - over 100,000 infected; over 1,000 dead
April 15 - 500,000 to 1 million infected; around 10,000 dead
April 30 - tbd based on government action or inaction, but I wouldn't be surprised to see over 25,000 dead by April 30.

This isn't politics. This is math. "



and the response was:

"Your trajectory outlines a worst case scenario"



Really? I was just looking at an OBVIOUS exponential growth curve. The results so far:

March 31 - 189,967 infected; 4064 dead
April 10 - 502,876 infected; 18,747 dead

If anything, it was wishful thinking on my part.

We also read this:

"Additionally, while the US is ranked 1st in reported cases it ranks 6th in deaths."



Of course, deaths are a TRAILING indicator, and sadly the U.S. will be "Number 1" in a matter of minutes, if not already. I told the O.P. to check again 4-15, but we won't have to wait that long with the U.S. only 102 deaths behind Italy at midnight GMT and a death rate 3 to 4 times higher for the U.S.

I'm not posting this to demonstrate some psychic ability or advanced medical knowledge. I have neither. I was just looking at the data trends. That's all. So how was I able to make such long range projections? I wasn't. THAT WAS LITERALLY 17 days ago that I posted that - March 24. OBVIOUSLY there was NOTHING that would change the trend before March 31, but we COULD see some flattening of the curve by April 15.

Have we?

Let's look at Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the U.S. You can argue about testing and reporting and all that, and there are valid points to be made, but since using the death rate, which is a trailing indicator, would be premature for Western democracies, here are the reported infection rates for the past 5 days:

Canada 16,667 / 17,897 / 19,438 / 20,765 / 22,148
France 98,010 / 109,069 / 112,950 / 117,749 / 124869
Germany 103,375 / 107,663 / 113,296 / 118,235 / 122,171
Italy 132,547 / 135,586 / 139,422 / 143,626 / 147,577
Spain 136,675 / 141,942 / 148,220 / 153,222 / 158,273
U.S. 370,019 / 403,521 / 435,518 / 469,124 / 502,876

Daily percentage increase:

Canada 7.38 / 8.61 / 6.83 / 6.66
France 11.28 / 3.56 / 4.25 / 6.05
Germany 4.15 / 5.23 / 4.36 / 3.33
Italy 2.30 / 2.83 / 3.02 / 2.75
Spain 3.85 / 4.42 / 3.37 / 3.30
U.S. 9.05 / 7.93 / 7.72 / 7.19

The way I read those numbers, Canada is doing a better job than the U.S., but both are effectively flattening the curve. Italy is playing out, and France looks to be the next hot spot in Europe, although you want to be careful about comparing BETWEEN countries since reporting criteria vary so much.

Without herd immunity, we need to be cautious how we start to loosen the clamps on society to prevent an echo spike. Those are the kinds of discussions we should be having now. As voters.

What really concerns me is India and Africa. We desperately need a vaccine ASAP. My prediction is October and that is VERY optimistic, but that's what I'm hoping for. Definitely BEFORE the next flu season starts!!!

Lars
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11 Apr 2020
01:48:50am
re: Coronavirus

Lars wrote:

"We desperately need a vaccine ASAP. My prediction is October and that is VERY optimistic, but that's what I'm hoping for. Definitely BEFORE the next flu season starts!!!"



We DO need a vaccine ASAP, but phase III clinical trials are either going to be thorough and produce marketable drugs that are determined to be reasonably safe with tolerable side effects or they're going to be rushed through the process and result in marketable drugs that may be prone to later discoveries of serious side effects that could endanger the health or even the lives of millions of Americans. The medical and research communities in the pharma industry and at FDA have spent years evaluating the success/failure of past phase III trials in an effort to balance the need for speedy trials vs public safety. How many lives do we lose to the virus while waiting vs how many serious health issues or deaths might we risk if the trial is rushed and results, years later, in a previously unrecognized serious side effect? It happens. Drugs are pulled from the market. People die. Pharmaceutical companies are sued.

The FDA is charged with establishing suitable guidelines for the trials. It's not a job I would want. Given the importance of the trial results, it is probably fair to say the protocol for trials errs on the side of public safety.

The FDA can authorize the emergency use of a drug during phase III testing. In that case, it's up to the patient and his/her doctor to weigh the risks and benefits of taking that drug before the trial had been completed.

Full disclosure: My perspective is guided by the fact wife is in the top 1 percentile of those who would probably not survive infection by this virus. She knows the phase III trials process inside and out. We're paying close attention and expecting to see one or two effective treatment options become relatively widely available within a few months and then an effective vaccine a year or more from now.

Tom
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11 Apr 2020
05:44:52am
re: Coronavirus

Sincere wishes that both you and your wife avoid infection. Ditto for all the folks here. Stay safe everyone.

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Snick1946

APS Life Member
29 Feb 2020
11:25:46am

Am a little surprised to see no comment thus far on this. Maybe we all want to get way from news about it but i have some worries about handling mail from abroad. I'd be interested to hear opinions.

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sheepshanks

29 Feb 2020
11:31:33am

re: Coronavirus

Just don't lick the stamps from Wuhan. Seriously, the cold that mail is subject to in the hold of an aeroplane and the time delay is probably enough to destroy the virus.
Looks like in South Korea the problem was a church congregation. More concerning are the cases that are showing up on the West Coast of USA where no known link has been found (also one in UK).

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Harvey

I think, therefore I am - I think!

29 Feb 2020
11:33:33am

re: Coronavirus

I hesitate to get on the bandwagon, but I wonder about mail leaving certain areas of China. Can someone out there with knowledge of the area tell us whether we should be concerned? Does a virus survive the postal system?

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sheepshanks

29 Feb 2020
12:08:28pm

re: Coronavirus

This from BBC website.

"If someone infected with the virus coughs on to their hand and then touches something, that surface may become contaminated. Door handles are a good example of a surface that might pose a risk.

It's not yet known how long the new coronavirus might be able to live on such surfaces. Experts suspect it is hours rather than days but it is best to wash your hands regularly to help reduce the risk of infection and spread of the virus. "



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Snick1946

APS Life Member
29 Feb 2020
01:38:17pm

re: Coronavirus

Touch of irony; we are going out this afternoon for my wife's birthday- to a Chinese place we like. NOT a buffet, so it's probably safe. I wonder if there are any eateries with 'Wuhan' in their name out there. That'd be tough.

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Dakota

29 Feb 2020
03:37:08pm

Auctions

re: Coronavirus

I just mailed a stamp to South Korea. I hope it isn't returned.

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ArtStamp

29 Feb 2020
04:09:17pm

re: Coronavirus

This specific strain of virus, according to the Chinese authorities and other health officials, can linger on inanimate surfaces for more than other viral strains. A specific time frame varies.

You may check the official USA CDC website to get a definitive answer.

There are several websites that deal with this information, but going to the source--the official CDC notifications website--is a sure bet.

(This reminds me of the post-9-11 postal scare.)

Due diligence is best.

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vinman

29 Feb 2020
08:41:30pm

re: Coronavirus

Skip the rumors and stick to the basics, wash your hands. Time to get into the stock market, buy low. Looking forward to the rally after the masses figure out they were lied to again by the fake news.
There will probably be some postal history to collect in the future after postal administrations start taking measures to disinfect the mail.

Vince

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DaveSheridan

29 Feb 2020
08:57:09pm

re: Coronavirus

The first Australian death has been reported today. SARS was bad, but this is spreading five times as fast.

I've just come back from a trip to Thailand. Probably 90% of people on the plane and at every airport wore a mask. At one regional airport, we were greeted by soldiers and nurses, who took our temperature and disinfected our hands.

The virus has also just hit New Zealand. Considering how remote we are from the rest of the world, don't think this won't get a lot worse before it gets better.

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ernieinjax

29 Feb 2020
09:06:18pm

re: Coronavirus

I'm kind of concerned about this one. I heard that there were 5 deaths from that one quarantined cruise ship alone. Sounds like this one is actually killing people.

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Webpaper

29 Feb 2020
09:21:43pm

re: Coronavirus

Of course we treat the flu lightly, many not even getting their flu shots

"So far, 14,000 people have died and 250,000 people have been hospitalized during the 2019-2020 flu season, according to preliminary estimates from the CDC."

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ikeyPikey

29 Feb 2020
11:12:01pm

re: Coronavirus

'
The 1918 influenza epidemic did not put Coney Island or Cunard Line out of business.

DIS (Disney) stock has taken a hit. Even if more of the theme parks go offline, they'll be back.

CCL (Carnival) stock has taken a hit. Short of liquidation, it is a safe bet that the customers who prefer cruises to air travel will be back.

My unsolicited, unqualified advice is to buy some now and, if they go down, buy some more.

Cheers,

/s/ ikeyPikey (who also suggests a peek at Costco & Shopify)

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Silence in the face of adversity is the father of complicity and collusion, the first cousins of conspiracy..
29 Feb 2020
11:30:58pm

re: Coronavirus

Well
Vinnie says it is just a hoax with made up stories about dead people.so why worry.?

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vinman

29 Feb 2020
11:51:38pm

re: Coronavirus

Sorry Charlie,
You made my point about fake news. If you don't agree with someone just tell lies and keep telling them until you and others believe your own BS.

Vinnie says it is just a hoax with made up stories about dead people.so why worry.?

Never said it, never implied it. please don't make up lies about what I said. It's OK to disagree with me but stop lying.

Vince

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keesindy

29 Feb 2020
11:52:43pm

re: Coronavirus

Lots of misinformation out there. Some of it laughable and some of it dangerous/counterproductive.

The US got a good start on this back in January. Travel ban from China began January 31. On February 4, Congress was still up to their eyeballs in the impeachment trial process, but my wife and I were surprised when her pulmonologist's office screened us with prepared questions relating to coronavirus. I don't know if the screening protocol originated with CDC, NIH or the hospital system, but it's an encouraging sign of some level of awareness and early coordination. We hadn't been out of the state, much less the country in the past year, and were impressed the healthcare system (or at least part of it) was already taking such precautions.


Tom

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angore

Collector, Moderator
01 Mar 2020
06:53:47am

re: Coronavirus

All - The discussion can stay civil if people avoid divisive political lingo. It does not help to the discussion.


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Neddie Seagoon from The Telegoons
01 Mar 2020
07:31:04am

Auctions - Approvals

re: Coronavirus

All one can do is protect themselves and their loved ones and hope for the best.

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ikeyPikey

01 Mar 2020
07:49:53am

re: Coronavirus

"... after the masses figure out they were lied to again by the fake news ..."



To be fair to Charlie (who overdid it a bit when confronted with politically-charged keywords):

Q/ When were the masses lied to ? When someone said “we have it totally under control” ?

I have not seen the mainstream media forced to walk-back their reporting: Wuhan remains the epicenter, the mechanisms of transmission have not been nailed down, and barn doors keep getting closed long after the horses have galloped to another country.

But I have heard the word "hoax", again & again, and I do not think that it is helping.

Cheers,

/s/ ikeyPikey
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51Studebaker

Dialysis, damned if you do...dead if you don't
01 Mar 2020
08:16:16am

re: Coronavirus

"...Lots of misinformation out there..."



I agree with this and think that this is occurring for two reasons. First, there is a vacuum of information and without information people make things up. Second, both the media and politicians can use fear to help themselves. The fear mongering in the media is unfortunate but the news media mantra has always been ‘if it bleeds, it leads’. There is no argument that fear generates clicks and ratings for the media. Here in the US, the issue has also been politicized with both parties trying to use it against the other. I find this particularly lame, this is something that should transcend politics and bring everyone together.

The scary thing is that so little is known including having no idea how it is being transmitted. China has refused multiple requests for samples of the virus that other countries want to run tests on to determine how long it can survive on various surfaces. China has also prohibited CDC personnel and other scientists from going to Wuhan region. And of course they also did not notify WHO in a timely fashion after they knew they had a problem. It was a Chinese doctor named Li Wenliang who first shared suspicions of a new contagious virus he began urging his fellow healthcare providers to wear protective clothing to avoid infection on December 30. Four days later he was summoned to the Chinese Public Security Bureau and was told to sign a letter that accused him of "making false comments" that had "severely disturbed the social order". Chinese officials announced on January 30th that he had the virus and then let his family know that he had died on Feb 7th.

What is known is that older men with other health issues are particularly susceptible. As a person who is on dialysis I am part of the most susceptible group but also cannot restrict my exposure by limiting my movement. I am forced to go to 175+ medical procedures per year to facilities which are filled with other highly susceptible folks. I have little doubt that will get this virus if it hits the US that way it has hit the Wuhan region of China.

The six month survival rate for people diagnosed with the Stage 4 cancer I have is 5%-10% and I have beat that. The five year survival rate for dialysis patients is 35.8% and I have beat that. In other words, I have already beaten the odds twice and doubt that pressing my luck once again is wise.

But I am not running out to buy masks (which is just silly since masks stop others from getting what you have, not the other way around) nor am I ‘prepping’ for the collapse of society. While I have no faith in any politician or government I have faith in democracy and capitalism; these provide the environment and motivation to develop tests, cures, and vaccinations. They have greatly decreased human mortality rates and certainly have been responsible for me being here now.

"...When were the masses lied to..."


ikey,
There is plenty of lame news and reporting on this, including your hometown newspaper (NY Times), which suggested calling the virus the 'Trumpvirus'. I grew up with the Sunday Times spread out on the floor every weekend but frankly I would not line a bird cage with it anymore.
This virus does not have a political leaning and when the media tortures it into a political story they are doing an incredible disservice to the public.

The media in the US is filled with those critical of the way it is being handled yet not in a single report have I seen someone say, 'they should be doing this'. Whining without offering any solutions is counter-productive and only leads to the fear mongering.
Don

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d1stamper

01 Mar 2020
09:21:41am

Auctions

re: Coronavirus

I just read this :-
IMPORTANT ANNOUNCEMENT - CORONAVIRUS
Last evening dining out with friends, one of their uncles, who's graduated with a master's degree and who worked in Shenzhen Hospital (Guangdong Province, China) sent him the following notes on Coronavirus for guidance:
1. If you have a runny nose and sputum, you have a common cold
2. Coronavirus pneumonia is a dry cough with no runny nose.
3. This new virus is not heat-resistant and will be killed by a temperature of just 26/27 degrees. It hates the Sun.
4. If someone sneezes with it, it takes about 10 feet before it drops to the ground and is no longer airborne.
5. If it drops on a metal surface it will live for at least 12 hours - so if you come into contact with any metal surface - wash your hands as soon as you can with a bacterial soap.
6. On fabric it can survive for 6-12 hours. normal laundry detergent will kill it.
7. Drinking warm water is effective for all viruses. Try not to drink liquids with ice.
8. Wash your hands frequently as the virus can only live on your hands for 5-10 minutes, but - a lot can happen during that time - you can rub your eyes, pick your nose unwittingly and so on.
9. You should also gargle as a prevention. A simple solution of salt in warm water will suffice.
10. Can't emphasise enough - drink plenty of water!
THE SYMPTOMS
1. It will first infect the throat, so you'll have a sore throat lasting 3/4 days
2. The virus then blends into a nasal fluid that enters the trachea and then the lungs, causing pneumonia. This takes about 5/6 days further.
3. With the pneumonia comes high fever and difficulty in breathing.
4. The nasal congestion is not like the normal kind. You feel like you're drowning. It's imperative you then seek immediate attention.

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Benque

01 Mar 2020
09:35:44am

re: Coronavirus

Is it OK to pick your nose wittingly?

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vinman

01 Mar 2020
09:49:21am

re: Coronavirus

d1stamper,
That is good information if true. I am not saying it is false but where did this information come from. I ask because you stated
I just read this :-
IMPORTANT ANNOUNCEMENT - CORONAVIRUS

This is all common sense procedures (what you should do normaly) that is not on Main Stream Media where many folks trust for correct information but can't find it there. Way too much false information out there and a lot of scare tactics. I stand by my original post"wash your hands."

Vince

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51Studebaker

Dialysis, damned if you do...dead if you don't
01 Mar 2020
10:32:24am

re: Coronavirus

"Last evening dining out with friends, one of their uncles, who's graduated with a master's degree and who worked in Shenzhen Hospital (Guangdong Province, China) sent him the following notes on Coronavirus for guidance:"


So they heard from a friend of friend? In a court of law this is called hearsay. Sorry, this is the kind of thing that only spreads rumors and false information. For example you posted

"4. If someone sneezes with it, it takes about 10 feet before it drops to the ground and is no longer airborne.
5. If it drops on a metal surface it will live for at least 12 hours - so if you come into contact with any metal surface - wash your hands as soon as you can with a bacterial soap.
6. On fabric it can survive for 6-12 hours. normal laundry detergent will kill it"


This testing has NOT been completed and the above is pure speculation.

The place to get correct information is from the CDC or the leading Disease Control folks in your own county and avoid rumors and speculation.
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html

From the CDC site
Person-to-person spread
The virus is thought to spread mainly from person-to-person.
Between people who are in close contact with one another (within about 6 feet).
Through respiratory droplets produced when an infected person coughs or sneezes.
These droplets can land in the mouths or noses of people who are nearby or possibly be inhaled into the lungs.

Spread from contact with infected surfaces or objects
It may be possible that a person can get COVID-19 by touching a surface or object that has the virus on it and then touching their own mouth, nose, or possibly their eyes, but this is not thought to be the main way the virus spreads.



In other words, the CDC is saying that they do NOT know for sure nor have they confirmed through testing how it is transmitted or how long the virus can survive on surfaces. A lab in Montana has been requesting samples of the virus from China for over a month so they can do surface testing. So far China has ignored all requests from other countries for virus samples. Countries are trying to grow new testing samples in labs but most of these samples are going into research for testing if a person has it and a possible vaccine.
Don

EDIT: The "IMPORTANT ANNOUNCEMENT - CORONAVIRUS" that is posted above is from Facebook posts that have been floating around for the last 24 hours. While I think it contains good general infection control information, it contains completely unverified information regarding the current Covid-19 strain.

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DannyS

01 Mar 2020
10:40:24am

re: Coronavirus

Here in Bangkok there isn't any real panic yet. About half of travelers on the mass transit lines are wearing facemasks, but I'm not sure that's up much more than when we have our yearly peak flu epidemic. A lot of malls and shops are putting hand cleaning gel dispensers at the doors. At the Makro cash and carry today as well as the hand gel a staff member was offering to take customer's temperature with an airport type digital thermometer. I'm OK for that anyway. If it does become a full on pandemic then we should be careful calling it a hoax as the mortality rates look fairly bad.

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angore

Collector, Moderator
01 Mar 2020
10:45:06am

re: Coronavirus

I do not see a lot of misinformation and note there is a lot of official sources for information in the world. I would expect differences in medical conclusions based upon best information.

What I see more of is the usual politicization by various sides and the usual hyping (extensive coverage) by media for ratings in the absence of other news. Talking heads have to make a living.

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51Studebaker

Dialysis, damned if you do...dead if you don't
01 Mar 2020
10:58:33am

re: Coronavirus

"I do not see a lot of misinformation..."



Al, There is so much misinformation that they have coined a new term for it, "infodemic". Here are just a handful of recent stories about the misinformation

Coronavirus: Misinformation and false medical advice spreads in Iran
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-51677530


Roughly 2 million tweets spread dangerous misinformation and hoaxes about the coronavirus
https://www.businessinsider.com/report-2-million-tweets-spread-dangerous-coronavirus-misinformation-2020-2


The coronavirus ‘infodemic’ is real
https://www.statnews.com/2020/02/28/websites-spreading-coronavirus-misinformation-infodemic/

Fake Facts Are Flying About Coronavirus
https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/02/21/805287609/theres-a-flood-of-fake-news-about-coronavirus-and-a-plan-to-stop-it

W.H.O. Fights a Pandemic Besides Coronavirus: an ‘Infodemic’
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/06/health/coronavirus-misinformation-social-media.html

Don
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Snick1946

APS Life Member
01 Mar 2020
11:56:24am

re: Coronavirus

Not linking to it but ran across a site today of some 'Psychic' claiming the virus was engineered by the 'deep state' and the Illuminati. They plan to wipe out 60 million of us so the remainder is easy to control. I'm strong on free speech but stuff like this is dangerous.

Washington state has declared an emergency. Shows like PIPEX might be in danger of cancellation.

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Webpaper

01 Mar 2020
12:13:33pm

re: Coronavirus

It's because it is unknown that creates the problem - the flu is known.

"It's fear of the unknown. The unknown is what it is. And to be frightened of it is what sends everybody scurrying around in circles chasing dreams, illusions, wars, peace, love, hate, all that - it's all illusion. Unknown is what it is. "

John Lennon

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sheepshanks

01 Mar 2020
12:18:57pm

re: Coronavirus

Think we might be scaring the normal people just a bit. Cough, sneeze, ache wheeze. Keep boiling the hankies Ma.

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okstamps

01 Mar 2020
12:53:57pm

re: Coronavirus

I stopped watching TV news years ago, as well as paying attention to most print and online Main-Stream-Media (MSM). Just too many agendas and misinformation on all sorts of topics. Came to this conclusion many years ago when I was in my teens, now I am in my 60s. Guess I might have been more analytical than most and ended up putting that trait to good use in my career as a chemist in the energy service industry.

I have found several good sites on YouTube about this topic. The videos that I have been watching have been authored by medical doctors or people with a good medical background. They have been referencing the information put out by the CDC, the WHO and the many papers that are being published in the medical journals with the most up-to-date information and have been posting links to that online information.

The links to these sites are as follows, the first being from the US and the second from Great Britain:

https://www.youtube.com/user/ChrisMartensondotcom/videos

https://www.youtube.com/user/Campbellteaching/videos

Both have been giving good tips on how to handle the situation and what to watch out for. Both have been very critical of how their national governments have been handling the situation, with their belief that most governments appear to be more worried about their economies than the health of their citizens. Two countries that they have praised for their responses are Singapore and South Korea.

I personally have ignored past plague scares, with those scares generally fizzling out (SARS, MERS, Swine Flu, etc.) although affecting some areas of the world rather severely. But when the information on this virus started coming out it looked much more similar to the Spanish Flu from 100 years ago (much more virulent). That was bad; my grandmother had a younger brother that perished from that flu.

Now that I am over 60 years of age I am starting to take the flu and similar viral infections much more seriously. I have had my yearly flu shot and have taken both available pneumonia vaccinations in the past several years. I got a case of bacterial pneumonia after getting the flu about 15 years ago, which then resulted in a case of shingles. I don't want to go through that again.

I have stocked up on the essentials that will tide me over for a couple of months if necessary. Just look at how this is being handled in China at the moment and ask yourself if the Chinese government would be taking such drastic measures if this isn't a big deal.

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vinman

01 Mar 2020
01:07:01pm

re: Coronavirus

Speaking of viruses, Kelleher has an article in this quarter's edition of "Kelleher's
Stamp Collectors Quarterly" by Thomas Lera titled "Mosquitoes Impact on Florida Mail in the 19th Century." It shows how misinformation and lack of information can cause people the make irrational decisions. The post office made a paddle with spikes to use on mail to puncture the envelopes so sulfur fumes could penetrate the envelope and keep Malaria from spreading.

I don't have any examples in my collection yet, but I do have some covers from the post 9/11 hysteria.
Here is a link to the magazine, if the link don't work you can see this issue and all back issues on their site.
https://www.kelleherauctions.com/magazine/kcc_021/index.htm

Vince

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ArtStamp

01 Mar 2020
01:13:29pm

re: Coronavirus

???*****!!!!!!It Wasn't Me

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BrightonPete

01 Mar 2020
02:10:13pm

re: Coronavirus

I have to be careful going out. Just because I cough a bit & sneeze doesn't mean I have Covid-19!

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Brechinite

Neddie Seagoon from The Telegoons
01 Mar 2020
02:27:51pm

Auctions - Approvals

re: Coronavirus

"Keep boiling the hankies Ma."




Sheepshanks:- You're showing your age now!!
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d1stamper

01 Mar 2020
02:29:59pm

Auctions

re: Coronavirus

Vince

I read from a post by a relative on Facebook. I am not sure how accurate it is, but thought maybe some one may be able to fine if it is true.

Doug

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ikeyPikey

01 Mar 2020
03:02:09pm

re: Coronavirus

"... your hometown newspaper (NY Times), which suggested calling the virus the 'Trumpvirus' ..."



And you object to misinformation !

Gail Collins is a political humorist, who is forever reminding readers that the Mitt Romneys took a road trip with their dog in a carrier on the roof of their car. Her column began:

"So, our Coronavirus Czar is going to be … Mike Pence. Feeling more secure?"



https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/26/opinion/coronavirus-trump.html


Moreover, the NYTimes has been telling people to wash their hands for more than a month:

How to Avoid the Coronavirus? Wash Your Hands

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/28/opinion/coronavirus-prevention-tips.html

Cheers,

/s/ ikeyPikey
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01 Mar 2020
03:09:50pm

re: Coronavirus

I am laid up with the flu right now, but that's all it is. I'm almost afraid to go out in case someone sees me coughing!
Joe

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sheepshanks

01 Mar 2020
03:28:57pm

re: Coronavirus

@Brechinite, Ian thought we all still did that, saves filling up the landfill with all the tissues that we made from the trees we cut down to make them. I always found that using tissues made my nose itch, probably the fibres that come off the paper.
I also hate when I find that she who commands has left a tissue in her cardi pocket when I empty the washtub.
Now where is my Sunlight laundry soap and washboard.

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postalpicker

01 Mar 2020
03:42:45pm

re: Coronavirus

Some have said to buy low, since the market is in a panic.

I do not know if there is the availability to buy options on any DOW 100 funds?

Just think about it this way.

If you had an option for 5 blocks of the Dow 100, that would be worth 500 shares to trade up or down.

The market dropped 3,000 points in 3 days, that would be a gain of 3,000 times 500 or $1,500.000 in just 3 days!

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51Studebaker

Dialysis, damned if you do...dead if you don't
01 Mar 2020
06:21:41pm

re: Coronavirus


Ikey,
So in your opinion editorials do not influence people? Or that saying things like "So, our Coronavirus Czar is going to be … Mike Pence. Feeling more secure?" is not fear mongering?

Sorry, I do not buy into your 'its just an editorial' defense. This kind of crap has no place in any media publication right now, we do not need divisive stuff like this. We need to be pulling together and leave politics out of it.

If after all of this is over, people are not dying, and the public is more at ease she can play her political card. But this is exactly the kind of thing that has US public opinion on the media at such a low level. Ms. Collins should be ashamed of herself.
Don

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ikeyPikey

01 Mar 2020
06:32:49pm

re: Coronavirus

"... So in your opinion editorials do not influence people? ..."



Please do not give me opinions; I have enough of my own, many in duplicate, some in complete sets.

What I do think that suspending all op-ed pieces for the duration of the crisis would be fear-mongering par excellence.

Ditto suspending legislative & political & scientific debate.

Cheers,

/s/ ikeyPikey (who notes that the administration is forbidding government scientists to speak freely in public)
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51Studebaker

Dialysis, damned if you do...dead if you don't
01 Mar 2020
07:49:15pm

re: Coronavirus

ikey,
I certainly did not say that op-ed should be suspended for the duration of the crisis. But having the right to speech does not mean it is always right to say something. What value is there is being divisive right now? (For the public, I assume the value for her the NY Times was more money in their pockets.)

And speaking of divisive you said in your post, “And you object to misinformation !”. You could have simply said ‘I do not agree with you’ without this kind of acrimonious personal attack.
Don

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Jansimon

02 Mar 2020
03:50:17am

Auctions - Approvals

re: Coronavirus

the funny - and also beautiful - thing about opinions is that everyone seems to have one nowadays. In an ideal world it is normal that one does not have to agree with another person's opinion, but tolerates it because it is, or should be reciprocal.
Sometimes different opinions may even lead to new insights, but it seems that instead of bringing people together, it fuels polarization.
What is wrong with saying "that's an interesting thought, I haven't looked at it in that way" instead of feeling attacked or offended.

Jan-Simon

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ikeyPikey

02 Mar 2020
06:10:58am

re: Coronavirus

"... We need to be pulling together and leave politics out of it ... What value is there is being divisive right now? ..."



So you'll take the Moral High Road for yourself, and leave us the rest? Bold move!

No government scientist is going to throw down her test tubes in disgust because SNL cracks a joke ... even if that joke is about government scientists. (In fact, they might welcome the recognition.)

We can & should devise our public policy response while noting that "the administration" canceled the PREDICT program - and down-sized the infectious disease specialist at the National Security Council - while proposing budget cuts at the CDC in every budget.

Thought Experiment:

Q/ Have you ever heard of a young'n'healthy American doctor or nurse who caught the common cold or the seasonal flu or pneumonia from a patient and died?

This has happened several times in Wuhan and, yes, it is newsworthy. Ditto that their standard protective gear did not help as much as one might hope. Ditto that (apparently) symptom-free people are passing the disease around. Typhoid Mary was newsworthy.

It is beyond delicious that you cite an NPR story (the curated crown jewel of the coastal cultural elite) for debunking the garbage you are reading on the uncurated Facebook and the uncurated Twitter. Rely on the Ivy League much?

We live in a mature, industrial democracy. Our manufacturers can make drugs & gloves & masks, and our doctors & nurses can treat patients, and our officials can make decisions about school openings & closings, and all this can happen while Gail Collins & Rush Limbaugh are cracking snarky jokes.

Like the man said: democracy is messy.

Cheers,

/s/ ikeyPikey
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DaveSheridan

02 Mar 2020
07:01:03am

re: Coronavirus

Meanwhile, in the rest of the world outside the US......

- New Zealand has blocked any travellers from mainland China, even if they were transiting
- Australia has initiated a pandemic plan
- 56 countries have now reported cases, every continent except Antarctica is affected
- People are panic buying across the world and "prepping"
- France has banned indoor events of more than 5,000 people

How serious does it need to be before people stop bickering about the politics??

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Jansimon

02 Mar 2020
07:07:50am

Auctions - Approvals

re: Coronavirus

I just heard from my brother that a complete department in the office building next to where he works was shut down because a woman who works there may have the virus. First test was positive, now waiting for the second one to confirm it.
With that in mind, it is no longer something that happens far, far away.

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angore

Collector, Moderator
02 Mar 2020
09:06:30am

re: Coronavirus

I work for a multi-national company and have operations in China so work with Chinese suppliers. We have seem impacts to supply chain (delays in materials and operations) and the company has banned business travel to multiple countries. One co-worker just took a long planned vacation to Egypt and Jordan! One vendor employee has parents in the original province but told they live out in the country so less risk. They had visited them during CNY. But, I engage with them daily so work continues and do what you can.

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Snick1946

APS Life Member
03 Mar 2020
10:50:40am

re: Coronavirus

Unfortunately, some infected & shedding virus carriers can be asymptomatic. So get used to elbow bumps and washing with soap for 1 round of “Happy Birthday”. This is going to be a difficult period ahead of us, what with the fear of death and losing everything.

And then there’s the Covid-19 virus…

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cougar

03 Mar 2020
05:45:47pm

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re: Coronavirus

I imagine or rather hope the flights will get a lot cheaper this year with people not willing to fly.

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okstamps

04 Mar 2020
01:51:50am

re: Coronavirus

The following link from Johns Hopkins shows where infections from the virus have been reported around the world.

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

It is a very interactive map that allows one to blow up or reduce the map image to get a better picture of where infections have been reported. Click on one of the red dots to get more detailed information for that location.

I have been watching updates of this map over several weeks. It has been amazing how quickly it has spread across the globe. Just today Argentina, Chile, Tunisia, and even Liechtenstein reported cases (Andorra, Monaco and San Marino have previously reported cases, with San Marino even reporting a death).

Where individual countries have been very good at testing for the virus and openly reporting cases, the numbers for that country have been exploding. South Korea is a good example. Almost everywhere where a case has been reported, several days later another case or two is reported, with the numbers then just starting to explode. From what I can see with the spread of cases across the United States and with number of cases starting to grow fast in a few locations in the United States, we are just starting to begin a very fast increase in total infection numbers.

For most (over 80%) an infection with this virus appears to be no worse than a cold or flu. But for about 15% of cases hospitalization may be required with up to 5% requiring intensive care. It does not appear to be a problem at all for the very young, but for those of us 60 years old and above it can be much more severe (death tolls of at least 3% increasing to over 15% for those above 80 years of age. The overall death rate appears to be in the 1-2% range, which is still 10 to 20 times that of the flu. And this is with the assumption that good medical care is available.

The big problem will be a potential shortage of available hospital care for those needing it. There is no immunity to this virus as it is a new virus. So everyone can potentially get it. There is no vaccine and none will be available for months, it at all. This virus is extremely contagious, able to survive for days on hard surfaces under the right conditions and being passed by both droplets (sneezing or coughing) and aerosol (much smaller droplets that stay suspended for long periods of time). It is much more infectious than the flu.

The high hospitalization rate and especially the very high intensive care rate will be the big problem. There will not be a sufficient number of hospital or intensive care beds to go around for all that will need them. This is where governments then clamp down with the quarantines in an effort to stop the spread. This is what happened in China with most of that country going into a complete stoppage.

And one does not get over this illness quickly. It can linger for weeks. For those more severely affected, it results in pneumonia, with one having the feeling of continuously drowning going on for many days in a row.

As I mentioned in my previous post, I have seen similar potential epidemics come and go over the decades, being hyped up by the press and then fizzling out without causing too much of a fuss. My gut feeling is that this one is going to be different, it is going to be similar to the Spanish Flu in its effects on the world. Some countries (China, Iran, South Korea, Italy, potentially Japan) have already been hit very hard. China's economy is being hit extremely hard, and with over 25% of all manufactured goods in the world being produced in China, the whole world is going to feel the effects. We no longer produce any vaccines and hardly any prescription medications in country, they are all produced in China. No medical masks are produced in the United States, they are all produced in China. When China decides that they need to retain these products in their own country because of their now great need for these products themselves, what are we going to do?

I am taking this very seriously. The daily pictures out of China with their great cities completely shut down with absolutely no traffic reminds me of some of the scenes from disaster movies. Would China being doing this if it was no big deal? I have seen video clips where a person is walking or standing and they then just collapse. In one case a person was standing on a sidewalk and then they just fell forward; they made no effort to cushion the fall with their arms, they just fell face-first into the pavement. Such images are common out of China, Korea and Iran.

The Spanish Flu circled the globe several times over a period of couple of years 100 years ago. In the process, it killed anywhere from 50 million to 100 million people. Many have been warning for the potential for a new illness to crop up and cause just as much damage. Is this it?

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ikeyPikey

04 Mar 2020
01:56:13am

re: Coronavirus

"... I imagine or rather hope the flights will get a lot cheaper this year with people not willing to fly ..."



Only if there are flights, period.

The airlines have gotten very, very good at flying aircraft with every seat sold ... or not at all.

After 9/11, driving went up, flying went down, deaths on the highways went ...

What with the 737 MAX grounded, the other aircraft in those fleets could probably use a little downtime.

Cheers,

/s/ ikeyPikey
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cougar

04 Mar 2020
01:29:40pm

Approvals

re: Coronavirus

" ... or not at all."



I do not think this is a long term option for an Airline company.
The undisputed truth is, the virus helps reduce the greenhouse emissions.
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Benque

04 Mar 2020
04:19:17pm

re: Coronavirus

"on a per-passenger, per-kilometer basis"

Well, that depends an awful lot on the plane....LOL. So many regionals flying around, all over the world, short hopping to the hubs where the big intercontinentals fly from....and these are the economical aircraft that are usually quoted in these kind of statements. And then there are the exec jets. Gee, I wonder if Al Gore is still flitting about in that mobile smoke-bomb Gulfstream G2?

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ikeyPikey

04 Mar 2020
09:07:19pm

re: Coronavirus

"... the virus helps reduce the greenhouse emissions ..."



Depends on whether/not they cremate the bodies, or ...

Cheers,

/s/ ikeyPikey

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Harvey

I think, therefore I am - I think!

05 Mar 2020
04:34:31pm

re: Coronavirus

The Nova Scotia government just cancelled all school trips outside Canada for a few months. I must admit, if I were still a teacher, a trip to Italy (for example) with a group of kids would be a bit scary now. NS doesn't have a case yet (knock on wood), but it's only a matter of time. There seems to be a lot of needless (I hope) panic, but that's better than ignoring the problem. Strange things happening though - it's amazing that North Korea doesn't have "the virus" where South Korea has a problem. There is way too much POLITICS in this!!!

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05 Mar 2020
04:39:47pm

re: Coronavirus

On reflection, inflammatory comment deleted.
Charlie

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".... You may think you understood what you thought I said, but I'm not sure you realize that what you think you heard is not what I thought I meant. .... "

Silence in the face of adversity is the father of complicity and collusion, the first cousins of conspiracy..
05 Mar 2020
05:22:14pm

re: Coronavirus

" ....Just look at how this is being handled in China at the moment and ask yourself if the Chinese government would be taking such drastic measures if this isn't a big deal. ...."

An excellent indicator, watch how governments act, and be suspicious of what they say, especially those that have a history of excessive secrecy or frequent mendacity.

" .... But when the information on this virus started coming out it looked much more similar to the Spanish Flu from 100 years ago (much more virulent). ..."

Just in case some have not checked this themselves.
"The 1918 Spanish flu — the worst pandemic of the 20th century — is estimated to have killed at least 50 million people worldwide over the course of three years. That includes 675,000 in the U.S. Among those who were infected, the death rate was estimated to be greater than 2.5% "
AND
" ....Estimates suggest that the world population in 1918 was 1.8 billion .
..."
Today, nearly 7.8 billion so a similar death rate of 2.5% ought to dispatch about 215 million to an early grave.
Let's hope that the "fizzle out" theory is valid and not wishful thinking.

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Silence in the face of adversity is the father of complicity and collusion, the first cousins of conspiracy..
05 Mar 2020
05:44:58pm

re: Coronavirus

" .... One co-worker just took a long planned vacation to Egypt and Jordan! ...."

Have you ever read "An Appointment in Samara" by W. Somerset Maugham ?
This fellow becomes fearful when he sees the hooded figure of Death roaming around in the local marketplace so he leaves Damascus to flee to a relative's home in Samara. That night when death visits the fellows employer, death comments about the missing servant and says that his absence is curious as It (death)has an appointment with him tomorrow in ....Samara.
It would be a classic good read, except I gave away the finish.
I wonder what would make someone consider Egypt or Jordan safer ?

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DaveSheridan

05 Mar 2020
06:08:31pm

re: Coronavirus

Here in Australia, people are panic-buying toilet paper. The shelves are empty.

If the virus is given a pandemic warning, are they all expecting serious bowel issues? If it's the end of the world as we know it, wouldn't it be more intelligent, if you want to be a prepper, to stockpile food?? Without food, toilet paper becomes somewhat redundant!!

Nowt as queer as folk!

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ikeyPikey

05 Mar 2020
11:36:27pm

re: Coronavirus

"... Here in Australia, people are panic-buying toilet paper. The shelves are empty ..."



I said much the same thing, and a thoughtful & better-informed person explained to me that you will only find out that you (or a family member) were near an infected person when the authorities come & ask you to self-quarantine for 14 days.

Apparently, not that many people keep, say, three weeks' worth of toilet paper at home.

Ditto baby wipes, diapers ...

So it is not so much panic-buying as sensible stocking.

Cheers,

/s/ ikeyPikey

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angore

Collector, Moderator
06 Mar 2020
07:37:45am

re: Coronavirus

Our company send an email to all employees worldwide outlining measures taken "out of an abundance of caution in an effort to keep our team members safe and healthy." There are restrictions for business and personal travel. We were told to take work laptop home every day. If sick for any reason, stay at home.


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Dialysis, damned if you do...dead if you don't
06 Mar 2020
09:13:44am

re: Coronavirus

Al,
Count your blessings that you work for a good company.

Right now I am sitting in dialysis among 30 other patients all of whom are elderly, in frail health, majority are in wheelchairs and are living at extended care homes or hospices. Two of the healthcare providers who are currently on the floor are sick. One nurse is so sick she mostly has been sitting at a desk with her head down for the last 2 hours. It is standard procedure for dialysis healthcare worked to show up to work when they are ill.

To their credit, they are wearing masks and washing their hands often but it unnerving to have sick healthcare providers coming in physical contact with us when we represent one most vulnerable population of people.

And while there is a grievance procedure, no one dares to use it because the dialysis provider will punish you (i.e. move you to a facility 45 minutes away). And there are no alternative dialysis providers in the vast majority of locations across the USA.

In the US, ESRD (End-Stage Renal Disease) is socialized medicine, Medicare covers it no matter what your age. The two dialysis providers in the US, Fresenius Medical Care and DaVita, have incredibly strong political action groups and lobbyists. They have successfully paid off the politicians and gotten them to changes the laws and regulations for dialysis centers. So instead of the standard medical industry nurse to patient ratio of 1:2 through 1:4 at dialysis facilities they are allowed a 1:12 ratio. Additionally, they are allowed to have a dialysis tech, who has zero formal medical education and are paid minimum wage, to administer IV drugs to patients.

Mark my words, dialysis centers, extended care homes, and hospices will be decimated by this virus.
Don

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ikeyPikey

06 Mar 2020
12:16:12pm

re: Coronavirus

The other element in this calculus is that those dialysis patients who feel ill cannot easily choose to stay home for, well, any length of time.

Surely, we'll see an explosion of interest in peritoneal dialysis which, for the innocent, can be done at home after a minor surgical procedure (to implant a spigot).

Not every dialysis patient qualifies.

Cheers,

/s/ ikeyPikey

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06 Mar 2020
01:55:31pm

re: Coronavirus

Spigots...bad memories come flooding back. When my wife was in her final few months of cancer "treatment" she had three different hoses coming out of various parts of the body. I changed, and drained, everything every day. The joys of getting old, I just hope I never end up in that state!!!

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philatelia

APS #156650
06 Mar 2020
02:50:37pm

re: Coronavirus

This feels like watching a Tsunami come at you in slow motion and you can’t do a damn thing about it other than pray. Time to turn off the news and stay home away from crowds of people and healthily, safely, happily, putter on stamps.

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cougar

06 Mar 2020
05:59:14pm

Approvals

re: Coronavirus

"Time to turn off the news and stay home away from crowds of people and healthily, safely, happily, putter on stamps."



I imagine retired-self sufficient people with their freezers full have a better chance of survival as are those living off the land somewhere in the bush.

The rest of us, having to go to work, school, the grocery store and attend social events have little chance of remaining intact.
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philatelia

APS #156650
06 Mar 2020
06:37:17pm

re: Coronavirus

True, Cougar. The luxury of retirement somewhat offsets all the creaky joints and memory lapses, eh? But, Folks may be forced to stay home whether they want to or not.

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jbaxter5256

06 Mar 2020
11:07:13pm

re: Coronavirus

Oh dear! They even canceled ComicCom in Seattle and the Boy Scouts of America local council has suspended winter camp and group meetings through the end of March. Not to mention a local church where my wife works is cancelling Sunday services after a vote by the elders! Plus Amazon, Microsoft, and Google are recommending employees work from home rather than come to the office and the University of Washington is going to attempt to do all classes online rather than in classroom settings through the end of March. Whitworth University in Spokane, WA is recommending that students from Western Washington not go home over spring break.

This is being taken VERY seriously locally.

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51Studebaker

Dialysis, damned if you do...dead if you don't
07 Mar 2020
03:21:07am

re: Coronavirus

In 2009, the H1N1 (Swine flu) pandemic swept across the world. Within a year and here in the US, the H1N1 virus had affected 60 million people, hospitalized over 250,000 people, and killed over 12,000 people. Worldwide the number of deaths from H1N1 (in the years 2009-2010) was estimated at over 200,000.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/2009-h1n1-pandemic.html

I do not recall the US media fear-mongering with the H1N1 like they are doing now with the current COVID-19 virus. I do not recall stock markets being wildly volatile. I do not recall people freaking out stock piling supplies. I do not recall the level of politicization that we are seeing today with the COVID-19.

What has changed in 10 years?
Don

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angore

Collector, Moderator
07 Mar 2020
06:14:26am

re: Coronavirus

I do not think it is all political. There are a lot of media outlets (political and non-political) that have to fill 24 hrs a day with something. The political ones retreat to their base audience corners and feed that itch. This happens no matter what - spin, counter spin. We see a lot of political hypocrisy these days.

When we have a snow event now unlike in years back, the local stations suspend network programming and just spend hours talking about traffic and road conditions, closings, local stories related to snow, how to drive in the snow, reminding people to not drive, etc. The technology allows remote reporting.

What supports this are stations secondary digital stations so the move network coverage to the sub channel to interrupt the main station. You have to manufacture something to keep those audience ratings which is more important than ever in this consolidated media company age. How many public service like stories on how to protect yourself from getting the flu do you need?

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51Studebaker

Dialysis, damned if you do...dead if you don't
07 Mar 2020
07:58:16am

re: Coronavirus

Understood Al, but the H1N1 pandemic was only 10 years ago. In 2010 the internet was in full swing and streaming TV was also underway, so the demand for digital content was pretty high (although I would agree that the demand for content has probably increase since then).

I cannot find a single H1N1 Swine flu reference in any of the philatelic forums in that era yet they all have threads about the COVID-19 now.
Don

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upsguy62

07 Mar 2020
08:00:09am

re: Coronavirus

If someone has already stated this, I apologize but I'm just wondering why it takes something like this to get folks to wash their hands!

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Brechinite

Neddie Seagoon from The Telegoons
07 Mar 2020
08:24:52am

Auctions - Approvals

re: Coronavirus

Jings!...Crivvens!...Help Ma Boab!

Whatever happened to the education system? It was hammered into us things like "Coughs and Sneezes Spreads Diseases!"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W728NGYhmmQ


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sR2X-6p_Y8U

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GWyzS9TJg9g

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musicman

APS #213005
07 Mar 2020
08:37:04am

re: Coronavirus

At the risk of opening a can of worms here,

I think it is suffice to say

'common sense' is our new "contradiction in terms" phrase;

It isn't common any more.


Thumbs Down

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SForgCa

07 Mar 2020
09:26:44am

re: Coronavirus

"
What has changed in 10 years?"



1. The people who should be providing responsible information giving views from "it's contained and going away" to "Pandemic that will change everything"
2. A massive political and foreign influenced social medium ripe with false info and divisiveness
3. A political system overcome by division and coming political events more interested in finding blame and preserving their positions
4. A news media both left & right running 24hrs/day grasping at whatever brings in viewers, ratings and ad revenues
5. A bloated bureaucracy that finds it difficult to be prepared or go from talk to action
6. 350 million people who don't know who they should trust or what to believe
7. An economy & market caught up in all the above

Bottom line - it is reaL, it will have an effect on many levels, it will pass and become just another historical event. In the meantime everyone needs do just do the basics for prevention until it either goes away or some "cure" is found
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youpiao

07 Mar 2020
11:38:15am

re: Coronavirus

"Apparently, not that many people keep, say, three weeks' worth of toilet paper at home."



Yeah. Not everyone shops at Costco. Big Grin

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sheepshanks

07 Mar 2020
11:57:44am

re: Coronavirus

We are in the age of vox pops, where people who really know little about a subject espouse their views on worldly matters from the information they gleaned from social media outlets or down the pub. Usually after someone has had to read it to them.
Very few actually take the time to research the subject before passing along the usually false information.

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ikeyPikey

07 Mar 2020
12:00:47pm

re: Coronavirus

"... What has changed in 10 years? ..."



Last time was the first time, and this time is the second time.

This sort of adaptive, learned response is what got us out of the caves.

Cheers,

/s/ ikeyPikey (who now knows to panic if he feels an earthquake on a beach)

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philb

07 Mar 2020
05:01:41pm

Auctions

re: Coronavirus

Toilet paper...i remember the old montgomery ward catalog in the outhouse ..philb January 1, 1939 -??? Big Grin

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07 Mar 2020
05:45:47pm

re: Coronavirus

This worth a read. A journal from a Brit in Wuhan who was an early victim.

First hand journal:
First-British-victim-25-describes-coronavirus

Roy

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Snick1946

APS Life Member
07 Mar 2020
10:41:56pm

re: Coronavirus

I live in Omaha; the nearby city of Fremont Ne will close all schools starting Monday for at least a week. a 35 year old woman who later tested positive attended an event at the High School there last weekend. I am seeing reports of possible cases in the Omaha schools. We think we will need to hunker down starting any day now.

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DannyS

07 Mar 2020
11:41:58pm

re: Coronavirus

I guess the media always needs a story, but we shouldn't play down the danger of this coronavirus until we are sure of our facts. So far the mainstream media and most governments have been pretty good at supplying facts. It seems the two things we should be looking at is how contagious it is and what is the morality rate. In the worse case it would be highly contagious with a high mortality rate. I will hold off making any decisions until I know these.

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philb

08 Mar 2020
10:31:14am

Auctions

re: Coronavirus

I really did not want to add to the conversation...but i am with you Danny!Happy

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ikeyPikey

08 Mar 2020
12:53:01pm

re: Coronavirus

"... how contagious it is and what is the mor(t)ality rate. In the worse case it would be highly contagious with a high mortality rate. I will hold off making any decisions until I know these ..."



I'm not sure what decisions I would make after I knew those numbers.

The basic 'choices' - attend/not today's postcard club meeting, for example - tend to get driven by other factors, such as whether/not I've been getting out of the house lately (largely 'yes') and whether/not I got an uninterrupted night's sleep last night (the usual 'no').

Stockpiling consumables requires some sense of "for how long" and, perversely, the more severe the pandemic, the shorter the run ... but the greater the urge to stockpile.

Our organizing principle is to try and keep this thing away from my aging-in-place parent, but the aide takes mass transit to/from her other home health care gig (and her home), and the kid takes mass transit to/from nursing school (with its clinical rotations), and it is not clear that restricting either of them to hour-long exposures to one Uber/Lyft driver after another would be a materially safer choice than our now-frequently-wiped-down-and-sprayed subway cars, while blowing off the aide (who needs the work, and would be exposed to new people) and/or blowing off a year of nursing school (for the kid to stay home) would be a good thing for the aide or the kid or the aging-in-place parent.

Moreover, the (apparent) long symptom-free-yet-contagious period and (apparent) airborne transmission make it seem like we're better off resigning ourselves to exposure, while the dose-makes-the-poison nature of the illness (otherwise healthy doctors & nurses get sick!) encourage us to trim our least-necessary exposures, wash our hands, etc.

But none of all that is based on hard statistical data about "how contagious it is and what is the mor(t)ality rate".

Cheers,

/s/ ikeyPikey
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Silence in the face of adversity is the father of complicity and collusion, the first cousins of conspiracy..
08 Mar 2020
02:51:27pm

re: Coronavirus

I was going to post " .... What has changed in 10 years?, ...." ,
but others have covered most of the obvious things. It just seems
fortuitous that Congress never got around to cutting the CDC funding
that was proposed. Score a goal for putting things off till later
or something.
It seems that they need every trained scientist they can keep standing.

Oh, and here is a cheery note, just for the record, in 1918 the
"Spanish Flu" started in the springtime and then did taper off in
the sunshine and heat of the summer, but as one source states;
"It came back with a vengeance in the Fall."
Just what I needed to know to cheer me up.
While I am not in as bad a shape as those on Dialysis, at my age
and with my existing complications, I have just gone over my Will,
my Living Will, and the Health Care Surrogate document just in case.
Others ought to consider doing the same.
I suppose I should be contrite about the gallows humor, but if this
sickness does spread as predicted, it is just being realistic.
Charlie

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Snick1946

APS Life Member
10 Mar 2020
02:25:32pm

re: Coronavirus

This may apply to other people: now is not a good time to order anything that is to be shipped from outside the US. I've been tracking a shipment through DHL from Germany, it has been sitting in Germany since 2-28. I assume it'd be worse for Italy.

It's from Schaubek in Leipzig, Germany so far has not been highly affected but I suspect flights have been reduced so cargo space is more scarce.

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ikeyPikey

10 Mar 2020
03:27:38pm

re: Coronavirus

'
Please allow me to suggest that you will not be able to read this interview and claim that you did not learn three new things that are relevant to your own situation.

What the WHO learned about Covid-19 in China

Cheers,

/s/ ikeyPikey

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vinman

10 Mar 2020
04:03:00pm

re: Coronavirus

ikey,
Great article,
I learned quite a bit of new information. I'm sticking with the basics,
Panic and hysteria are not appropriate.
Wash your hands.
If you are sick with cold or flu symptoms call your doctor and get tested if he/she advises.

Vince

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sheepshanks

10 Mar 2020
04:20:35pm

re: Coronavirus

Vinman, fine to say get tested but what about all those who do not have the finance or health cover to be able to afford the testing.
This is where the government should step in and cover the cost without question. I'm sure that the brains in the health departments can calculate an overall cost per test, which would be paid to the testing centres on production of a patient listing with relevant security numbers. This would enable random checking to ensure honesty of the testing facilities ( would they tell untruths, not us guv).
ps Edit to add I find it strange that they still seem unable to tell us how long the virus can survive outside of the body.

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sheepshanks

10 Mar 2020
04:40:35pm

re: Coronavirus

OK this from a site called Stackexchange,
I've checked the FactCheck.org article on the incident:

All COVID-19 tests in the US are conducted by two agencies: The New York State Department of Public Health, and the Center for Disease Control and Prevention.
Neither organization charges for the test.

You (and/or your insurance) will have to pay for emergency room services if you go to the ER, but you (or your insurance) won't be billed for the COVID-19 test itself.

EDIT, even this seems to be contradicted, here is a further response on the same site.

"All COVID-19 tests in the US are conducted by two agencies: The New York State Department of Public Health, and the Center for Disease Control and Prevention." — This is no longer the case. A number of state health department labs perform tests now (see, for instance Nebraska, which reports the number of tests they have performed) and commercial labs Quest and LabCorp are beginning testing as well. – Zach Lipton yesterday

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Dakota

10 Mar 2020
05:16:31pm

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re: Coronavirus

Does anyone know if US Customs is holding packages from Europe? An envelope of stamps arrived at Customs on February 21 and is just sitting at Customs. This envelope is from Estonia.

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angore

Collector, Moderator
10 Mar 2020
05:32:11pm

re: Coronavirus

The article covered a lot of aspects besides washing hands. It was a quick proactive response and not reactive approach. Like any event, some play it safe and others do not and often risk others.

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Jansimon

10 Mar 2020
06:43:23pm

Auctions - Approvals

re: Coronavirus

"Does anyone know if US Customs is holding packages from Europe? An envelope of stamps arrived at Customs on February 21 and is just sitting at Customs. This envelope is from Estonia."



If the envelope is held at Customs, it is probably for a different reason. Three weeks ago, the world considered Corona / Covid-19 as something terrible happening in China and there were no actions to prevent the spread of the virus in the rest of the world. Perhaps there were, but they were not visible...
Anyway, Estonia was not a hotbed of the virus like Italy and still isn't, as far as I know. Apart from that, the virus is spread from human to human. If it lands on a letter or a packet it may survive for 24 hours max and then it is no longer active. That's why all the containment plans focus on quarantine of people, not of materials.

Jan-Simon

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Jansimon

10 Mar 2020
07:25:17pm

Auctions - Approvals

re: Coronavirus

I do not know how the situation is today, but a few days ago, the US government announced that 1.5 million tests were available. That may sound a lot, but that means only 750,000 people can be tested, which is less than 1% of the population. Apart from that, most states do not have the capacity to do mass tests. They must scale up considerably in order to be able to deal with the challenges ahead.

Most countries have similar problems. Noone is really prepared.

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vinman

10 Mar 2020
07:37:49pm

re: Coronavirus

The situation is different today (in The U.S.). More kits are available. More are being manufactured as we post about the virus. Not every American needs to be tested. The test in intended for those who may have been exposed or those who are experiencing symptoms of cold or flu.

Vince

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ikeyPikey

10 Mar 2020
07:43:15pm

re: Coronavirus

'
This what transparency and an emphasis on public health looks like:

- the Israel Ministry of Health builds a timeline for each person who tests positive for exposure to the coronavirus, and

- the Israel Ministry of Health publishes that patient's timeline on their website, so that

- any person can quickly determine if they crossed paths with that infected person (oy!) or did not (phew!).

the Israel Ministry of Health timeline for Patient #29

Q/ Did you notice the granularity of that data ?

Yes, government is more 'distributed' in the USA - Texas has 254 counties, for example - but a motivated federal agency (or suitable NGO) could put together a template for this data so that agencies doing contract tracing could upload their data, enabling people to self-report their exposure to an infectee ... or self-relax.

{...}

Cheers,

/s/ ikeyPikey (who has removed an absolutely apolitical comparison of the relative efforts of the American v Israeli governments (available by PM) which - unlike some people - did not use words like "fake", "lies", or "hoax")

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51Studebaker

Dialysis, damned if you do...dead if you don't
10 Mar 2020
07:51:01pm

re: Coronavirus

Mods should remove the political posts.
Don

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ernieinjax

10 Mar 2020
08:11:48pm

re: Coronavirus

51Studebaker...I agree wholehearterly... Any political posts should be deleted immediately. Regarding the virus, the two opposing political parties will attack each other regardless of the other sides actions or inactions. We signed off on over 8 billion to combat the virus and have been moving heaven and earth to do what ever can be done.

As I type this, I am in ground zero of the hot zone. I am in the subway tube headed out of downtown San Francisco jam packed against other people.

Your government is doing everything it possibly can. Follow the directions of the apolitical, nonpartisan scientific experts. Wash your hands and dont touch your face.


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philatelia

APS #156650
11 Mar 2020
12:24:53am

re: Coronavirus

“Your Government is doing everything it possibly can.”

Ummmm not to pick nits, but isn’t that a political opinion?

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ernieinjax

11 Mar 2020
12:35:40am

re: Coronavirus

No. I'm listening to Fauci not Trump.

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okstamps

11 Mar 2020
01:39:02am

re: Coronavirus

It is already too late.

The virus has spread too widely in the United States to now stop it. We had our chance about a month ago, but it would have required a complete shut-down of anyone entering the United States from outside the country, very rigorous testing and a complete tracking of any person testing positive to see who they may have contacted.

The choice was instead made to keep the economy running along without disruption. This is the same decision most countries made and are still making.

This virus spreads much more easily than the flu. A person with the flu spreads that virus on average to about 1.25 other people. Over 20 transmissions about 20 thousand or so people will be infected. One person with the Covid-19 virus on average will spread the virus to somewhere around 5 other people (the figures given vary but all are much higher than the flu). With 20 transmissions of the Covid-19 virus, about 330 billion people will be infected. Since there are only about 7 billion people on earth, good luck in evading this bugger.

The Covid-19 virus can remain infectious on hard surfaces for up to 9 days under the right conditions (the right temperature and humidity and lack of sunlight). It can spread by both droplet and by aerosol. And a person who is not showing symptoms can spread the virus without knowing they are. This is much different than most virus-caused diseases that only are infectious once symptoms being to present. It also has a fatality rate of about 3.4% (WHO figures) which compares to a fatality rate from the flu of about 0.1%. A very nasty little bugger that makes me wonder if this was cooked up in a lab somewhere.

With about 7 billion people on the planet and assuming about 60% infection of the population and a 3.4% death rate, you are looking at 140 million deaths worldwide. But this assumes that everyone will have access to good medical care.

Unlike other natural disasters (hurricanes, earthquakes, floods, etc.) that strike at the infrastructure and cause problems with water, electricity and food supplies, this one will strike at the medical infrastructure. The number of people infected is doubling about every four to five days where no quarantine has been imposed. Where some communities in the United States are presently starting to see a quick rise in cases, within about two weeks or less there will be more people presenting with severe pneumonia than what the hospitals can handle. Then hard decisions will need to be made who will be treated and who will be left untreated and to handle their illness on their own.

If you happened to see some of the videos that were coming out of Wuhan before China completely clamped down on any information coming out of that area, it was horrifying. The hospitals were completely overwhelmed. Crematoria workers said that two-thirds of the dead were being picked up at their homes rather than from hospitals; the hospitals sent them home because they couldn't handle them or people were afraid to go to the hospital because of fear of becoming infected with the Covid-19 virus. If you had a heart attack or other serious condition that would need immediate attention, forget about it as there was no one to help you. This is the condition that northern Italy is now facing. And a similar condition could be facing parts of the United States in about ten days.

The only way to stop this from happening is a complete and thorough quarantine. It has to happen now or else the conditions in Wuhan and northern Italy will be here before you know it. I don't think that a quarantine will occur until it is too late because all politicians don't want to make that choice; it interferes with the economy too much and disrupts everyone's lives too much. Don't want the voters made at me, don't you know. Only when the situation becomes dire will the quarantine occur and by then it will be too late for many people who will be needing medical care. It doesn't make any difference which political party is running the show, the results would have been the same.

I see most people in complete denial. What happened in Wuhan can and will happen here. It is the same virus and we are the same species. Wuhan apparently had a pretty good medical infrastructure and northern Italy certainly does. Wuhan broke under the strain and the medical infrastructure in northern Italy appears to be in very dire condition. But people in this country are more worried about not stopping the NCAA basketball tournament, other sporting events, and just making things inconvenient in their life.

So I do not see good things coming our way in the next few months. I am not worried about water, electricity or sewer service. I am stocked up on food (the first time I have ever done this). And toilet paper. Tomorrow I am going to check with my pharmacy to see if they can refill my prescriptions ahead of time; I presently have about two months left on my three-month prescriptions, but if I can get them refilled, I am going to do so.

There is a lot of good information (meaning correct) and useful information coming out on this. Unfortunately, our media and politicians are not the ones providing this information. Check out my previous post on this thread to links to a couple of YouTube posters, both medically trained professionals, that have been presenting very good information on this topic.

Boy, do I hope I am wrong about this. But my eyes don't lie and my scientific training tells me to accept what I see and to not ignore it. I wouldn't mind being sarcastically called a prepper a couple of months from now, but that is not what I see coming.

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angore

Collector, Moderator
11 Mar 2020
07:00:34am

re: Coronavirus

People assessing a government's response is an opinion (political or otherwise) as they are not expert to judge the response and even "experts" disagree.

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Oldmanemu

11 Mar 2020
07:56:49am

re: Coronavirus

Time to assign this thread to the Steam Room. It's depressing enough to read the click bait on news services. I don't like the way this issue is invading a good stamp forum.

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Brechinite

Neddie Seagoon from The Telegoons
11 Mar 2020
10:46:33am

Auctions - Approvals

re: Coronavirus


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nR0lOtdvqyg

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ikeyPikey

11 Mar 2020
11:04:43am

re: Coronavirus

Once upon a time - like, say, three days ago - I had the same dire outlook as okstamps.

But the WHO interview reminds me that

- epidemics are not uniform,

- government reactions to local outbreaks matter,

- the behavior of individuals matter, and

- anything that slows the spread of the disease allows time for vaccines & treatments to come online, while it reduces the deadly overflow at hospitals, etc.

What the WHO learned about Covid-19 in China

Cheers,

/s/ ikeyPikey (who certifies, under penalty of perjury, that he has not forced anyone to click into this thread)

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Jansimon

11 Mar 2020
11:05:12am

Auctions - Approvals

re: Coronavirus

Now we need one with Frazer as well Big Grin

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angore

Collector, Moderator
11 Mar 2020
11:33:47am

re: Coronavirus

I just got back from the doctor's office for a planned checkup at a fairly large practice.

What was different?
1. Asked questions related to flu like symptoms and travels overseas first
2. Purell everywhere, masks on requests
3. Admins logging in patients wore gloves. People who had to fill out forms were given gloves
4. A few people had masks, saw none on staff
5. Asked if I could get a corona virus test - answer: No, I would have to contact state health office. NC state has test kits on back order per State due to issue with the kits. LabCorp supposedly has kits.
6. Did not see/hear anyone coughing, etc.

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keesindy

11 Mar 2020
11:34:46am

re: Coronavirus

What a waste of time this thread has become. Long diatribes that highlight the most negative and questionable information that can be found and others presenting "information" regarding the U.S. test kits without understanding the distinctions between the public and private aspects of the situation. Elsewhere, others talk about the phase three (human) testing of new vaccine candidates as though they understand the process and why it can take 12-18 months. Spoiler alert: the drug companies are repeatedly sued when their approved products are blamed for causing alleged unexpected side effects, etc. The litigious nature of Americans has as much to do with the time it takes to approve new drugs as anything.

I'm probably as concerned as anyone here regarding the Wuhan virus. My wife has won the lottery when it comes to having ALL of the major pre-existing conditions that are likely to cause a severe reaction to the virus. Ironically, she has been involved in patient management in drug studies and has been responsible for setting up phase three studies for new cancer compounds. So we're aware of the importance of the studies and the extraordinary costs incurred in developing those compounds. Then there is the time it takes to get multiple sites set up with patient enrollment to do the studies and then navigate the FDA requirements and coordinate with the physicians and their administrators and legal staff as well as all the groups (including legal) within the pharmaceutical companies themselves that play a role in getting new drug compounds approved. No one in that process wants to take shortcuts or make mistakes. Lives depend on everyone doing their jobs to the best of their ability. Too many politicians and too many posters to this thread (and elsewhere online) don't understand the situation well enough to be commenting on it! As Fauci and Azar have pointed out, we're dealing with the equivalent of the "fog of war." Everyone needs to step back, take a deep breath and take personal responsibility by following the general precautions for avoiding infections. We've learned to live with the various strains of the flu that infect millions and kill thousands each and every year. We'll learn to live with this new virus if it too becomes yet another in the long list of health issues we all must deal with. Be responsible and be safe!

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Brechinite

Neddie Seagoon from The Telegoons
11 Mar 2020
12:42:14pm

Auctions - Approvals

re: Coronavirus

as requested:-

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sxqvwkmTNy8

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Silence in the face of adversity is the father of complicity and collusion, the first cousins of conspiracy..
11 Mar 2020
02:07:18pm

re: Coronavirus

"negative aspects ?"

That sort of implies that there are countervailing reasonably positive aspects. About the only one I can imagine is the possibility the growing world population may pause a bit. Otherwise perhaps we should close our eyes, put a paper bag over our heads and hope for the best. Now that I think about it, noting that rubbing one's eyes appears to be a common entry point for the virus, using a paper bag might just help. preferably one with the name of some upscale store emblazoned in fashionably bright colors, of course.

Maybe having this house alone out on the Texas Tundra might not be such a bad idea either. If I do not run out of hinges, I have enough stamps to stay secluded and busy for a year or more.


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cougar

11 Mar 2020
03:13:01pm

Approvals

re: Coronavirus

I think the main question here is if the corona virus is affecting our stamp collecting in any perceivable way. Are we buying less stamps in fear we might need money for hand sanitizer which went from $3/bottle to $184? Are we having less time for stamps for whatever virus-related reason?

I am not affected as of yet. Happy stamp collecting as usual.

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Snick1946

APS Life Member
11 Mar 2020
03:22:49pm

re: Coronavirus

As the OP on this... Please don't pull this thread. It may be a tall order but we're all adults and ought to be able to discuss this without political jabs. I think there have been an equal number of them on here from both sides of the divide.

As Cougar said, the intent was to have a forum to discuss how this impacts collecting.

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philatelia

APS #156650
11 Mar 2020
03:38:51pm

re: Coronavirus

This week’s edition of the Economist just arrived and they have, as per their usual high journalistic standards, a good article comparing how different countries are dealing with Covid19. They cited Singapore as being particularly well prepared. After the SARS scare, Singapore created a thorough plan for dealing with any future epidemics and it is paying off for them.

There is also a graph showing how the flow of tourism into certain areas does not align with the numbers of cases that you would expect to see. Raises many interesting questions about the accuracy of the reported numbers of cases.

Another point they mention is that most medical masks are manufactured in China. It might behoove the USA to encourage making some of these critical supplies domestically in the future.

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Harvey

I think, therefore I am - I think!

11 Mar 2020
03:44:33pm

re: Coronavirus

I live near Halifax in Nova Scotia and in the Summer and Fall our area depends on getting tourist money from the many cruise ships that stop here. They are discussing now about cancelling that for the Summer, or whether people will actually even take cruises. I imagine most coastal cities around the world are discussing the same things. It should make for a very interesting tourist season everywhere. They've already cancelled all international school trips. How about large sporting events around the world?

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Brechinite

Neddie Seagoon from The Telegoons
11 Mar 2020
04:44:59pm

Auctions - Approvals

re: Coronavirus

" How about large sporting events around the world?"



Its already happening. Some countries say there is to be no gatherings above 1000 people and some no gatherings above 500 people. Some European soccer games are to be played behind closed doors ie No Fans, No crowd, No spectators!
The Six Nations Rugby Tournament has already cancelled matches between England and Italy, the Ireland France game is also cancelled.
Tonights soccer match between Manchester City and Arsenal has been cancelled.

Italy has more or less shut down. I'm holding on to a buyers stamps as he is in Milan one of the worst hit areas. (I think some of the stamp collectors in self isolation are that bored sitting at home that they are buying more stamps than normal through ebay, delcampe etc)

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ikeyPikey

11 Mar 2020
05:23:17pm

re: Coronavirus

"... I just got back from the doctor's office for a planned checkup at a fairly large practice ..."



My annual checkup was one week ago, at a small office.

The receptionist sneezed on my urine sample.

"... Spoiler alert: the drug companies are repeatedly sued when their approved products are blamed for causing alleged unexpected side effects, etc ..."



De-Spoiler Alert: Congress will, with the stroke of a pen, exempt the drug manufacturers from Covid-19 liabilities. Can't be done? Ask the gun manufacturers.

Similarly, with another stroke of the Congressional pen, clinical trials can be replaced with experiential data from China, where generic drugs are already being deployed, and Covid-19-specific vaccines will be deployed in about three months.

"... I think the main question here is if the corona virus is affecting our stamp collecting in any perceivable way ..."



I skipped last weekend's meeting of the Metropolitan Postcard Club, unlike the forty collectors over forty who attended ... and had a good time without me.

The next two lectures at the Collector's Club of New York (18/March and 01/April) have been postponed.

"... I live near Halifax in Nova Scotia and in the Summer and Fall our area depends on getting tourist money from the many cruise ships that stop here ..."



The 1918 Spanish Flu did not sink Cunard Lines.

Can't speak to 2020, but 2021 will probably be just fine. As Professor Galloway has pointed-out, cruises already speak to folks who are minimizing their contacts with surprises & foreign nationals to begin with.

"... most medical masks are manufactured in China ..."



Color me astonished that a country that went to war over WMD - remember Colin Powell showing photographs of the mobile bio-weapon van? - has done zip to stockpile the easily stockpiled supplies that would be needed in such an event.

Quick! Somebody say something nice about the Red Cross.

Cheers,

/s/ ikeyPikey
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vinman

11 Mar 2020
07:17:15pm

re: Coronavirus

Due to the Coronavirus The Philatelic Gathering is cancelled this month. We meet in West Chester, Pa. Our average age is above 60.
So far this is not affecting me or my family. If necessary my wife can work from home.
I'm spending a few days at the new home, lots of cleaning to get to before the movers bring our furniture. I'll probably take a walk over to the APS tomorrow and check out their sales department and library.
I'll let you know what precautions they are planning.

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Webpaper

11 Mar 2020
08:10:14pm

re: Coronavirus

My husband and I spent a few hours in the emergency room at a large, well respected hospital here. A few observations

Maybe 5 to 10 percent of the nurses wore masks.I did not see even 1 doctor with a mask on. Our doctor introduced himself, shook hands and discussed what they were going to look for and the procedurec used.

Almost all doctors and nurses used scrub sinks rather than the wall mounted hand sanitizers. I asked why and was told that soap and water is MUCH better at getting rid of germs than hand sanitizer.

In other words, no real changes yet.

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Silence in the face of adversity is the father of complicity and collusion, the first cousins of conspiracy..
11 Mar 2020
08:33:17pm

re: Coronavirus

Good News for stamp auction addicts.
Since DOCTOR WHO and CDC have indicated
that the virus does not survive on
inanimate objects for more than three
days, and one somewhat unsubstantiated
rumor suggest that nine days is safe
enough, our USPS, in an abundance of
caution had announced that no mail
delivery will be sped up faster than
one fortnight from the cancellation
date for any regular mail item. Since
Priority and Express customers already
pay a special fee such mail will be
held to the standard three week schedule.
This will surely kill any chance of
passing the infection between the often
apparently inanimate postal workers.
Also highway repair crews engaged in
moving small potholes from side lanes
to center lanes will not be able to
remain at home due to infection exposure
unless they can demonstrate a body
temperature of at least ninety-six
degrees. They will be issued new IDs
stamped "CIW" (Certified Inanimate Workers.)

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sheepshanks

11 Mar 2020
09:28:27pm

re: Coronavirus

Well I guess anyone in the States waiting on letters/packages from Europe will, with the latest news, have another month before they arrive.

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Silence in the face of adversity is the father of complicity and collusion, the first cousins of conspiracy..
11 Mar 2020
11:36:18pm

re: Coronavirus

Yes, see, a built in safety factor, unless the mail deliverer
wipes his, or her, nose just before putting the mail in the
mail slot. I suppose a short ride around in a circle in the
microwave on the reheat cycle would clean the still sealed
envelope and its contents.
I sure hope the Queen does not mind.

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Jansimon

12 Mar 2020
05:46:37am

Auctions - Approvals

re: Coronavirus

"The 1918 Spanish Flu did not sink Cunard Lines."



While that is 100% true, the size of the tourism industry in 1918 cannot be compared to that in 2020... Compared to 100 years ago, the number of people depending for their income on tourism is much higher.

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philatelia

APS #156650
12 Mar 2020
07:57:36am

re: Coronavirus

I feel sorry for middle income families who saved up to take the kids to Disney and Universal. They have purchased their tickets - do they cancel or risk it? The drop in attendance at the parks will probably taper off as many of these folks who committed will still go. I wonder at what point the parks will choose to close.

We are also entering Spring Break week - peak tourist time for the entire year. I wonder if the college students opt to stay away.

Tourism is Florida’s primary industry and a huge income source for taxes. We don’t have a state income tax, but we do have high taxes on hotels and restaurants to compensate.

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DaveSheridan

12 Mar 2020
08:15:18am

re: Coronavirus

The biggest threat to everyone today is the mobility of the human race. 90+% of the world's population could hop on a plane tomorrow and go anywhere. Keeping track of who they meet and what they touch is impossible.

I watched Liverpool lose to Atletico Madrid today. No handshakes, but elbow bumps between players and officials.

Self-isolation (ie: becoming a hermit) is the most logical response at this time

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Harvey

I think, therefore I am - I think!

12 Mar 2020
08:55:52am

re: Coronavirus

I'm a big NBA fan and turned on the computer a few minutes ago only to learn that the season was suspended - a player tested positive for corona virus. With all the players and fans in the arenas that could be really serious. I wonder what the MLB and NHL are going to do. If I remember right there was a Stanley Cup final between Seattle and Montreal cut short in 1919 due to the Spanish Flu. All us sports fans are going to have a tough year! By the way, I think the NBA is doing what they have to do and I would bet the next step is cancelling the Stanley cup and then the MLB season. I hope this ends soon!!!

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Benque

12 Mar 2020
10:45:18am

re: Coronavirus

Harvey, you can remember 1919?!?
Wow, philately really is a hobby for old-timers!

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Jansimon

12 Mar 2020
11:05:23am

Auctions - Approvals

re: Coronavirus

Over here in the Netherlands new mitigation measures have been announced. Work from home if you can, stay at home if you do not feel 100%, all meetings of more than 100 people are cancelled, which includes museums.
I suppose that means more time for the stamps...

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Greaden

12 Mar 2020
11:25:40am

re: Coronavirus

While lying low at home, I should start trading my extra rolls of toilet paper for the stamps of Basel, Geneva, and Zürich.

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Snick1946

APS Life Member
12 Mar 2020
11:58:18am

re: Coronavirus

Following all the developments in the past several hours we've decided the time has come to hunker down. I'm past 60, no underlying issues my wife is several years younger but we're just not going too chance this. We have a 24 year old son living with us he works at a Federal job and plans to tele commute starting next week. We ought to be able to buy groceries on line, I can still get out and go walking so long as I don't stop and talk to anyone. Our son came home last night with four packages of TP, so we are truly hunkered now.

I can get caught up now on stamp projects. Happy

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angore

Collector, Moderator
12 Mar 2020
01:24:27pm

re: Coronavirus

I got an email from my Doctor's office that informed anyone with a cold or flu to call first. Do not go to the office.

The widespread impacts are unprecedented in recent history.

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ikeyPikey

12 Mar 2020
01:46:26pm

re: Coronavirus

"The 1918 Spanish Flu did not sink Cunard Lines."



"...While that is 100% true, the size of the tourism industry ..."



I have thought more about this, and decided that my delightful factoid is irrelevant because - the corollary to your point - ocean liners were an essential means of transportation, so the limited options helped the industry keep going.

I'm gonna stick with my other factoid - that the 1918 flu (and decades of seasonal polio scares) did not shut down Coney Island - and wait patiently for someone to sink that one, too.

Cheers,

/s/ ikeyPikey

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philatelia

APS #156650
12 Mar 2020
02:33:45pm

re: Coronavirus

A little idea of mine - replace your bathroom hand towel with a pile of washcloths. Everyone who washes their hands gets a clean mini towel. White is best as you can bleach the dirty towels.

Also - I am spraying and wiping down doorknobs and other frequently touched surfaces with diluted bleach water. Anything touched by multiple hands should be disinfected.

Anyone else have little tips to share?

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angore

Collector, Moderator
12 Mar 2020
02:57:43pm

re: Coronavirus

I know someone who just puts a roll of paper towels in the bathrooms for people to use.

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londonbus1

12 Mar 2020
04:20:52pm

re: Coronavirus

We took our own plastic gloves to the shops today only to find that every place had both gloves and hand sanitizer and wipes on a table at the entrance !! I thought that was pretty organized !
The Grandson was due to come over and stay tonight but developed a cough so didn't come. Now we may cancel the Shabat dinner for tomorrow.

On a more grand scale, I have had to cancel my visit to 'London 2020' International Stamp Exhibition (If it still goes ahead, nor certain) because of current restrictions here in Israel. Massive disappointment which may be tempered if they plan not to go ahead with it at this time.
The world is in an odd place is it not !!

Londonbus1

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ikeyPikey

12 Mar 2020
04:22:11pm

re: Coronavirus

"... I am spraying and wiping down doorknobs and other frequently touched surfaces ..."



Years ago, I had the bright idea to point-out to our home health care aide that the handles on the walker were the filthiest surface in the apartment. Her eyes popped out of her head - that insight never came up in training - and she's been diligent about wiping-down the walker handles every day.

Cheers,

/s/ ikeyPikey
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Snick1946

APS Life Member
12 Mar 2020
04:46:04pm

re: Coronavirus

Just saw on CNN: The NCAA is cancelling March Madness this year. I will not be surprised to hear that the NHL cancels the rest of their season. I'd bet MLB will at the least postpone the season opening, with possibly playing a shortened season starting later.

Earlier there was a rumor making the rounds that a dealer at a major Midwest Stamp show had come own with it but that proved not to be. I fully expect to start seeing shows cancelled as local communities clamp down on this stuff.

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philatelia

APS #156650
13 Mar 2020
07:06:33am

re: Coronavirus

Good Advice from a video on the BBC ...

Behave like you already have the virus'
An infectious disease expert says people shouldn't just try to avoid getting coronavirus - instead, they should act as though they already have the virus and want to avoid passing it on.

Professor Graham Medley, from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM), said this during an interview with BBC Newsnight last night when asked if there was a "simple message" he could give the public.

His response was: "Most people have a fear of acquiring the virus, but I think a good way of doing it is to imagine that you do have the virus, and change your behaviour so that you're not transmitting it.

"Don't think about changing your behaviour so you won't get it. Think about changing your behaviour so you don't give it to somebody else."

In the interview, Prof Medley also discussed how herd immunity can help protect the population, and how vulnerable people can be protected.

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Brechinite

Neddie Seagoon from The Telegoons
13 Mar 2020
08:12:11am

Auctions - Approvals

re: Coronavirus

Just watching the European Union President giving a speech on what member states should do. The EU will set up a committee of experts to advise them. They promise that that they will do everything required.

However every country must remain unified and stick to the European Rules that are current or what the EU decides during this crises.

The question remains "Are you telling me that the billions of Euro's that they have had over the years that NOTHING was done to prepare for any type of pandemic?"

Leaders? I wouldn't trust them to run a bath.

Keep Safe.

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sheepshanks

13 Mar 2020
10:37:36am

re: Coronavirus

Ian, hopefully they will video conference to help stop the spread of the virus.

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Silence in the face of adversity is the father of complicity and collusion, the first cousins of conspiracy..
13 Mar 2020
12:55:16pm

re: Coronavirus

".... The world is in an odd place is it not !!...."

Just for you Mike.

Curious Planet

Hurricanes, Tornadoes, Earthquakes,
Floods, Fires and Drought,
Pestilence, Pogroms and Wars,
What a curious planet we dwell upon,
Providing the wonders of birth,
The cornucopia of health and wealth,
Yet, apparently hell bent,
On destroying it all,
In a constant series of disasters,
That never cease, their Conga line,
Endlessly arriving, suddenly,
And wreaking their horrors,
Departing in an unfathomable way,
Renewing the very life,
They set out to eliminate.
What a curious planet, indeed.


©Charlie Jensen 2018

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FlyinLo

13 Mar 2020
02:55:54pm

re: Coronavirus

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51Studebaker

Dialysis, damned if you do...dead if you don't
13 Mar 2020
04:40:21pm

re: Coronavirus

I am a bit astounded that it is news that we should have good hygiene and wash our hands. The fact that we are now seeing news stories about airlines actually cleaning the planes, which should be standard procedure on every day of the week, is a sad commentary.

As a person who has been immunocompromised for the last 6 years, I have had to take extraordinary precautions over this time. I have 5 sets of ‘medical clothes’ that I wear exclusively at all medical appointments. When I come home the 4 times a week that I have medical procedures, I strip off my clothes and shoes in the garage before entering the house. I carry a backpack full of masks, gloves, and sanitizer wipes everywhere I go.

Studies show that we touch our face an average of 23 times per hour. No matter how hard I tried I could not seem to change this behavior for myself. So instead I decided to approach this issue by keeping my hands as clean as I could. Over the last 6 year, my hands have been perpetually dried out due to the 30-40 times a day that I use hand sanitizers. (By the way if you ever need to start your fireplace or a bush pile, hand sanitizer makes a great fire starter. There is that much alcohol in it!) These behaviors might sound a bit extreme, but I managed to stay alive and not get any secondary infections that those around me succumbed to.
Don

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musicman

APS #213005
13 Mar 2020
09:19:22pm

re: Coronavirus

I think we should move this thread over to

"Off-Topic"


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Silence in the face of adversity is the father of complicity and collusion, the first cousins of conspiracy..
13 Mar 2020
09:31:53pm

re: Coronavirus

" ....These behaviors might sound a bit extreme, but I managed to stay alive and not get any secondary infections that those around me succumbed to....."

No Don, in your situation the behavior is far from extreme. Keep it up as long as you can.

Normally, I believe that people wash their hands when they have done something that obviously involves them possibly having been soiled, and our bodies develop healthy defense mechanisms for the normal bacteria they live with.
I read a study years ago that seemed to indicate that those who are overly worried about such things (germs) and try to totally avoid contact, become more susceptible to harm from otherwise symbiotic bacteria that actually protects somewhat from strains foreign (to them) bacterial infestation. At least that was the theory.
An example was given of parents who are obsessive about protecting their children from every and any germ imaginable. As a child grows and fights off biological infections it often naturally develops immunities from further infections. The child who does not get the opportunity to do so naturally can be subject to further biological attacks as they never were allowed to develop those immunities.
Such immunities are exactly what is meant when someone with Don's health problems is said to have compromised immunity systems.

So right now when the nation is being attacked by a new and vicious viral bacteria, wash frequently and regularly. Yesterday when I went to the Amarillo VAMC to see the regular PCP for the annual check-up, I wore "rubber" gloves and interestingly was asked by more than one person why, or, if I had a cold or something. "No, (silly, I thought.) hospitals are full of sick people !" and for the duration I would do the same thing. No need to bring home any new strange exotic pets.

Sorry, but I just had to return and edit some of the typos and defeat the "Spellcheck app" which apparently insisted replacing "immunities" with "immensities."






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StampWrangler

14 Mar 2020
12:10:14am

re: Coronavirus

"Anyone else have little tips to share? "



I sanitize my cell phone a couple times a day - just wipe a little sanitizer over front and back. It's probably one of the most-handled items for many of us.

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angore

Collector, Moderator
14 Mar 2020
05:45:53am

re: Coronavirus

Moved to Off Topic since devoid of any philatelic content.

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BrightonPete

14 Mar 2020
08:47:18am

re: Coronavirus

It took a few days here, but yesterday the local grocery stores were cleaned out of toilet paper! There was even a fight at No Frills for some! I'd be more concerned getting a small stockpile of dry & canned goods.

I went to Ottawa on Thursday by train. Business class car only had ½ a dozen or so people in it. Everything seemed normal in the capital. Only a couple people wearing paper masks, and one guy with a monster blue, orange and green plastic thing covering cheek to cheek, nose to mouth. But his eyes were still unprotected.

Hopefully, like Trump says, it will go away once the weather warms up Hurry Up

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musicman

APS #213005
14 Mar 2020
09:21:46am

re: Coronavirus

Local stamp show scheduled for today cancelled, as was another upcoming one

for the 28th and 29th of this month.


Very bummed to also report the cancellation of the Reba concert that was coming

to Grand Rapids in May! My awesome wife gifted me with tickets for the show

at Christmas. I just told her last night to apply for a refund today.



May seems quite a ways away from now....seems odd to me to cancel that far out,

but I'm no expert....I don't think ANYone is, really, in situations like this.


My daughter works for Meijer Corporate;

They have been sent home for the next 3 weeks to work from home.

Local schools have closed for 3 weeks and are discussing the possibility of remaining closed for the remaining school year!

Panic sure makes people do unusual things.......


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ikeyPikey

14 Mar 2020
10:21:26am

re: Coronavirus

"... Amazon pulled his items and thousands of other listings for sanitizer, wipes and face masks. The company suspended some of the sellers behind the listings and warned many others that if they kept running up prices, they’d lose their accounts. EBay soon followed with even stricter measures, prohibiting any U.S. sales of masks or sanitizer ..."



NYTimes: He Has 17700 Bottles of Hand Sanitizer and Nowhere to Sell Them

Cheers,

/s/ ikeyPikey
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Snick1946

APS Life Member
14 Mar 2020
11:37:22am

re: Coronavirus

This may have been referenced earlier but the APS has a cancellation page for shows cancelled or postponed due to this:

https://stamps.org/news/c/news/cat/news/post/cancelled-shows-march-2020-update

I went to my local supermarket yesterday and it was bedlam. All the toilet tissue was sold out and it looks like there is a run on some canned goods as well. I wore gloves and no one else I saw was doing so and in fact I got a few odd looks from store staff.


(Modified by Moderator on 2020-03-14 16:10:13)

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musicman

APS #213005
14 Mar 2020
12:01:03pm

re: Coronavirus

Some smaller shows are not listed with the APS...just an FYI.

Happy

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Snick1946

APS Life Member
14 Mar 2020
03:07:03pm

re: Coronavirus

About an hour ago our doorbell rang. It was a lady down our street asking us we are all OK and if anybody needed anything. Apparently our neighborhood association is going to be doing this on an ongoing basis awhile. she left a number with us to call if we needed anything. I'm sometimes a bit of a cynic -I'm sure no one on here disagrees Happy but I was a bit moved by the effort. She had a clipboard and we're now in a chain of residents to be looked out for.

Maybe there's hope for society after all.

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Silence in the face of adversity is the father of complicity and collusion, the first cousins of conspiracy..
14 Mar 2020
11:08:22pm

re: Coronavirus

Well, I just had a double Sonic Burger brought in
and thus have placed my future in the hands of some
anonymous high school kid who may not have any real
idea about the new stricter hand sanitation rules.
But the burger was really good.
Lets see how this works out.

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StampWrangler

15 Mar 2020
02:39:26am

re: Coronavirus

All schools, college, libraries, city facilities and activities, churches that I know of, amusement facilities are shut here. The markets are all devoid of meat, dairy, canned goods, rice, pasta, freezer meals, dry goods, flour, sugar, of course toilet paper, sanitizer, and water, household cleaning products, soap, rubbing alcohol, Tylenol / Advil / etc., water filters.

There are no active cases in our city yet. The nearest is 25 miles away.
I live in Southern California, “earthquake country”, so we are in the habit of keeping emergency stores of water, non-perishable foods, and first aid on hand. But now I’m concerned that we’re going to have to go into our emergency supplies just because we can’t get day-to-day groceries. I guess that situation in itself will constitute our emergency.

I think it’s good that all non-essential facilities are shut, because I think a tremendous amount of spread could have been prevented if other countries would have shut everything down sooner. If our situation is the worst we have to deal with, I’ll be thankful.

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philatelia

APS #156650
15 Mar 2020
06:51:41am

re: Coronavirus

I wish we could quarantine the media and slow down all this insane mass hysteria and panic. We need to replace it all with ONE message: KEEP CALM AND WASH YOUR HANDS!


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musicman

APS #213005
15 Mar 2020
08:16:30am

re: Coronavirus

DITTO!!!

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vinman

15 Mar 2020
08:54:48am

re: Coronavirus

Oh my, Do you really think MSM is the problem???
I didn't think that we are allowed to say that on this site.

Vince

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philatelia

APS #156650
15 Mar 2020
09:24:29am

re: Coronavirus

I assume “MSM” means “main stream media” and not something out of “50 shades of Gray”? If yes, why would referring to main stream media’s over hyping of this issue be banned here? There are a few reactionary groups that use that term in a derogatory way to mean only some sources but technically it means all large audience media.

In any case, my statement applies to ALL forms of media no matter where they tend to fall on the political spectrum.

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vinman

15 Mar 2020
09:41:54am

re: Coronavirus

If I mention the fake news "hyping" the Wuhan Virus my post are deleted. You either believe MSM or you don't. They are the problem. It is like the tabloids at the super market check out. They are causing panic and that is what they are trying to do. It is all President Donald Trump's fault. They were losing their minds yesterday because he touched the microphone at a press conference. Do you really think that is news?
I said it before and I'll say it again.
Panic and hysteria are not appropriate.
Wash your hands.
Vince

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philatelia

APS #156650
15 Mar 2020
09:45:25am

re: Coronavirus

Oh my - read my edited post above. I DID NOT mention specific media sources, my statement referred to ALL sources no matter their political leanings. But by using the terms “fake news” and so on, you are making a statement that is fiercely political and those are banned from Stamporama.

Innocent statements being vilified as political and heated politically charged responses are why that Stamporama rule was created. These don’t bring anything positive to the site so please stop assuming that my apolitical statements are supporting any political position.

Now I remember WHY I left Stamporama during the last election. This type of attacking attitude STINKS. Knock it off!

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vinman

15 Mar 2020
09:49:57am

re: Coronavirus

Please explain why "Fake News" is political? I didn't mention any news outlet. Please point out in my post where I did. Maybe you don't like my opinion and call it political when it is not. Trying to get my posts censored.

Vince

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vinman

15 Mar 2020
09:53:35am

re: Coronavirus

It is tough to discuss this when you edit posts after I respond. You are now trying to change what I am responding to. That is not being truthful. Trying to change the narrative and make my response not make sense. Shame on you. I remember when you left in a huff because I called you on changing your posts and deleting them after I responded to them.
I never mentioned any specific news outlet.
Vince

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philatelia

APS #156650
15 Mar 2020
09:55:29am

re: Coronavirus

We are not having a discussion in real time - this is not a chatroom

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philatelia

APS #156650
15 Mar 2020
10:16:57am

re: Coronavirus

I deleted my posts in the past to get the trolls to quit beating up on me. The conversations had shifted from discussions to personal attacks as this one has done. Whatever happened to polite discourse? You frame your responses in terms of “You think this ... “ and then attack me for thinking that way. Simply phrase your opinion and eliminate the YOU aspect. Argue the IDEA not the person expressing it.

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sheepshanks

15 Mar 2020
10:19:11am

re: Coronavirus

Possibly some of you may have already seen this. Brought a smile to my face.
Image Not Found

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vinman

15 Mar 2020
10:27:45am

re: Coronavirus

Now for something Philatelic.
List of stamp shows that are cancelled.

https://stamps.org/news/c/news/cat/news/post/cancelled-shows-march-2020-update

Vince

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Brechinite

Neddie Seagoon from The Telegoons
15 Mar 2020
10:51:55am

Auctions - Approvals

re: Coronavirus

"Tiresome to Bloody Nuisance."



The next stage is "Golly Gosh"

The last time it was "Golly Gosh" was in 54 AD when the Roman General Vespasian invaded Britain.
It was also the last time that Soccer games were cancelled.Rolling On The Floor Laughing

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smaier

Sally
15 Mar 2020
10:57:28am

re: Coronavirus

Sheepshanks - enjoyed that bit very much. You planning your garden yet?

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sheepshanks

15 Mar 2020
11:10:27am

re: Coronavirus

Hi Sally, appreciate your comment. Not planned anything on paper yet for the garden, it is still under a foot or so of snow, and more in the forecast.
Guess will have to look out and throw away some of the old seed and work on the new but nothing will be planted until mid May at the earliest. Usually buy in things like tomatoes and brassicas as they need a longer growing period which the commercial garden centres can do best.

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musicman

APS #213005
15 Mar 2020
11:27:24am

re: Coronavirus

I predict that approximately nine months from now there will be

a large influx of new babies born into this world;



I also predict that by 2041 or so they will be referred to as the

"Pandemic Generation".


Let's just hope that we don't start seeing names like "Corona' for girls

and 'Covid' for boys.....Surprise

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Snick1946

APS Life Member
15 Mar 2020
11:40:44am

re: Coronavirus

Glen Stephen's chat board has a 40 post thread concerning show cancellations:

https://www.stampboards.com/viewtopic.php?f=13&t=89825

That board is not known for genteel discussion, comments have been made about the usual unsanitary state of many shows. Personally I've seen table dealers eating carry out foo with their fingers then without even a wipe, going through their stock. Many shows are breeding grounds for this stuff.

Look for London 2020 to be cancelled or postponed.

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51Studebaker

Dialysis, damned if you do...dead if you don't
15 Mar 2020
11:51:14am

re: Coronavirus

Hi Vince,

In my opinion the media, all the media, is nothing like it was 30-40 years ago. As someone who has been negatively affected by the mask/sanitizer/wipes panic that the media has caused with their agendas, I really wish folks would reject the media's behavior.

Last summer Matt Taibbi wrote an introspective article named "The Media’s 10 Rules of Hate" which outlined how the media primarily now sells division. In it he said, "To make money, we’ve had to train audiences to consume news in a certain way. We need you anxious, pre-pissed, addicted to conflict...We’ve discovered we can sell hate, and the more vituperative the rhetoric, the better. This also serves larger political purposes." He goes on to list the '10 Rules of Hate' that his industry uses to make money.

Full article is here if you are interested https://washingtonspectator.org/taibbi-10rulesofhate/

In my opinion the Hatred he outlines has already been assimilated by much of the public; people now consume news to be affirmed, not to be informed.
Don


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Benque

15 Mar 2020
12:43:00pm

re: Coronavirus

Hi Don. I think you put that quite well. I didn't know about that article by Matt Taibbi, but I have generally liked his articles in the past.

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vinman

15 Mar 2020
12:50:32pm

re: Coronavirus

The radio station I volunteer at is a community radio station. We list events going on in the community in between music. We had to pull most of them due to all the closures in the area. The music will go on.
WRDV.org
Tomorrow night I will continue with my Blues program 10-1.

Vince

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vjones48

There is brilliance in simplicity
15 Mar 2020
01:27:05pm

re: Coronavirus


"So, first of all, let me assert my firm belief that the only thing we have to fear is...fear itself" Franklin D. Roosevelt

It is times like this that I understand this quote more than ever.. We are seeing
people acting without reason and in what I think is an irrational manner. They are going
to the stores where there are crowds of people touching shopping carts with there
hands buying toilet paper?

Me and my wife are retired and therefore can just wait this insanity out at home.
The fact is that the trucks carrying these product are on the highway right now, and
the shelves will be full again.

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vinman

15 Mar 2020
01:58:52pm

re: Coronavirus

Don,
Thanks for that link.

Vince

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okstamps

15 Mar 2020
02:21:34pm

re: Coronavirus

Over the last two months I purchased a large stock of canned and dried food online from Amazon and also Nuts.com. I did that because I assumed there would be a quarantine of some sort eventually but mainly to get items that my local WalMart just does not carry. I also found that some items were cheaper through Amazon or Nuts.com than what WalMart has them priced at, especially when purchased in bulk.

Also, since I don't own a motor vehicle and perform all my errands on bicycle, having groceries delivered to my door is very convenient. I never liked the 9.5 mile round-trip grocery runs.

A couple of days ago when I placed an order on Amazon pickings were getting slim with many items out of stock or with a long delay before being available again. I did get coffee, coffee creamer, garbage bags and dishwashing detergent. Some small food items that had a selling price of $1 or less had a limit of two where before one could order as many as you wanted.

I just checked on Amazon again a few minutes ago. Now everything is gone. Everything is either out of stock for weeks or more or just has a notice that it is no longer in stock and it is not known if it will ever be in stock again. Other items that I had previously purchased have now been marked up in price by 100-200%.

I am planning on making one last run to WalMart to pick up a few items and then sit back and watch things progress over the next month or two. I just need some butter, margarine, chorizo sausage (it goes in with the beans in the slow cooker to give them some flavor), some cans of chopped tomatoes (again with the beans) and perhaps some bagged salads. I will probably take this trip tomorrow and see what I can find. I have a shopping bag that I purchased when living in The Netherlands; it is a very large two-handled very tough plastic bag about 2-3 times larger than an ordinary grocery bag. I figured if I used this I wouldn't need to touch any grocery carts. The doors open automatically, so no doors to open manually. I can check myself out, so no clerks handling my groceries at check-out. So other than for the stockers touching the items, limited touching of any sort involved.

It is a whole new world out there that came out the blue very unexpectedly.

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okstamps

15 Mar 2020
02:29:00pm

re: Coronavirus

Saw a video on YouTube yesterday posted by a YouTube regular that I follow. I believe it was of a store opening in Australia with the camera trained down the aisle where the toilet paper was stocked. As the front door opened, the crowd poured down the aisle containing the toilet paper, with everyone grabbing as much as they could.

The person that posted the video rightly commented that this was one of the most stupid things he as ever seen. Here we have a highly contagious virus that everyone is supposedly afraid of and what do they do, they rush elbow-to-elbow together in a packed crowd down an aisle to fight over something that they can't eat. He commented that if that was him, he would be looking for the canned beans.

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Brechinite

Neddie Seagoon from The Telegoons
15 Mar 2020
02:50:57pm

Auctions - Approvals

re: Coronavirus

"he would be looking for the canned beans."




On Thursday I was doing the weekly shop, guess what No Beans!!
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ikeyPikey

15 Mar 2020
04:15:24pm

re: Coronavirus

"... “You think this ... “ and then attack me for thinking that way ..."



The Public Discourse Version of Pin the Tail on the Donkey.

It is much easier to discredit an individual's opinion when you can assign that individual the opinion you want to discredit.

Wanna shoot fish in a barrel? First, pick the barrel.

"... List of stamp shows that are cancelled ..."



Q/ And why are you not accusing the APS of spreading panic? And, taking sides? And, failing to really love America?

Like the insults Tool of Moscow and Capitalist Running Dog before it, the accusation Fake News pretty much belongs to an identifiable end of of various political & cultural spectra. So, own it, and understand that flinging it around is, in and of itself, a political act.

Cheers,

/s/ ikeyPikey (who looks into his local grocery store, and thinks that we are witnessing the zombie apocalypse ... only we're the zombies)
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Harvey

I think, therefore I am - I think!

15 Mar 2020
04:27:04pm

re: Coronavirus

I went out to pick up a few groceries today - the stores really are out of toilet paper! Can anyone out there explain why there is a run (s?) on toilet paper. It really doesn't make sense to me!

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ikeyPikey

15 Mar 2020
05:08:26pm

re: Coronavirus

"... Can anyone out there explain why there is a run (s?) on toilet paper ..."



https://stamporama.com/discboard/disc_main.php?action=20&id=24622#174744

Cheers,

/s/ ikeyPikey

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51Studebaker

Dialysis, damned if you do...dead if you don't
15 Mar 2020
05:51:10pm

re: Coronavirus

"...- the stores really are out of toilet paper!"






Don
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ernieinjax

16 Mar 2020
12:24:52am

re: Coronavirus

Hey Theresa.. I see you talking about trolls and why you left SoR... I hated to see you go.. as we head into November, just one question. Wanna go double or nothing? Rolling On The Floor Laughing

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angore

Collector, Moderator
16 Mar 2020
07:21:11am

re: Coronavirus

Trolls is another popular word that is tossed around that covers a broad area depending on one's views.

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ikeyPikey

16 Mar 2020
11:09:25am

re: Coronavirus

Q/ So how come there are no reports of panic-buying at Michael's, as parents stock-up on arts'n'crafts kits to keep their kids busy during the shutdown?

Meanwhile, up-bubbles a memory of Larry (Room 201) and I (Room 204) quickly tiring of dorm life and, together with Ken (I forget) renting that premier status symbol, an Off-Campus Apartment.

It being the Spring of 1971 - everyone was busy groping their way back to the land - about one day into this adventure I find that Larry and Meg (his girlfriend) have bought a pillow-sized (?ten ?twenty pound) sack of flour and a commensurately enormous sack of sugar so that they can "save money" by baking their own bread.

I (thoughtfully, as always) explained that bread was the last & dumbest place to try & save money, as the stuff cost next to nothing at the grocery store, and nobody eats much of it, anyway.

They put their hurt noses in the air and said, basically: "Well, then, no bread for you."

I don't remember how long it took but, one weekend, Larry gifted the baking supplies on his mother (he lived less than fifty miles away) and that was that.

I am only sorry that her reaction has been lost to history.

Cheers,

/s/ ikeyPikey

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keesindy

16 Mar 2020
12:43:47pm

re: Coronavirus

ikeyPikey wrote:

"Larry (Room 201) and I (Room 204)"



What a memory! I can't remember what my own dorm room number would have been in the '60s. In fact, I can't even remember if we had room numbers, but we must have. It was a large dorm and the administrators would have wanted a way to track us down when necessary.

Tom

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ernieinjax

16 Mar 2020
01:05:47pm

re: Coronavirus

Moreland Hall at SUNY Oswego. It's the dorm closest to town...and the bars. That would be the fall of 1991.

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StampWrangler

16 Mar 2020
02:47:37pm

re: Coronavirus

"I predict that approximately nine months from now there will be

a large influx of new babies born into this world;
"



And I’ve heard that when they turn age 13 in 2034 they will be called the QuaranTEEN generation.

I’m sorry. But that’s what I heard. Glad there’s no “thumbs down” options for comments....



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Snick1946

APS Life Member
16 Mar 2020
03:59:43pm

re: Coronavirus

I just got a message from Norfrim that some may find of interest:

'
Dear customer,

We are monitoring the development of the Corona virus closely here at Nordfrim.

Our greatest priority in this situation is the health of our customers and co-workers and we are following the guidelines provided by Government and taking all necessary precautions.

We are doing our best to keep our business running as usual in this extraordinary situation and you can still visit and purchase from our web-site and contact us by phone, email and post.

As the situation is right now we are still able to deliver to customers worldwide with the exception of Italy and potentially with smaller delays in some countries.

We hope that by joint effort we will get through this challenging situation in a good way and we look forward to hearing from you again.

Best regards,'

This is the first admission I've seen from a philatelic dealer that things are messed up. FWIW, I did get the shipment from Schaubek I referred to, came today. DHL tracking was not working.

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ikeyPikey

16 Mar 2020
05:28:56pm

re: Coronavirus

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Please remember that Millennials - indeed, all of the Sesame Street Generations - need encouraging.

Q/ Will there be a Participation Trophy ?

Cheers,

/s/ ikeyPikey

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Benque

16 Mar 2020
06:16:39pm

re: Coronavirus

My sincere feelings about what is going on worldwide:
Thoughts about what's happening, from people I talk to: Not much, except for; whats going on?????
What I see in the news: Don't panic, just wash your hands and be sensible....BUT LOOK WHAT'S HAPPENING HERE!!!...AND HERE!!!!...AND HERE!!!!
What I see with my own eyes: Grandiose absurdities.
What I see in financial merkets: QUICK, PANIC NOW!!!! HE WHO PANICS FIRST, PANICS BEST!!! !!SELL,SELL,SELL!!!!!

And what will come of all the BS? Opportunity for those who instil and provoke panic. (Large banks are very, very good at this game...IMO)

Most of us here are old enough to remember all the panics of the past. How did our investments do during those panics? Were we worried about them when our very lives, our existence was at risk? Well, no, after all, what's a few bucks (our retirements!!!), when people are gonna die all around us???

My advice: Be sensible, and keep your powder dry. Opportunities will soon abound, if not there already.

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ikeyPikey

17 Mar 2020
06:54:23am

re: Coronavirus

Someone exclaimed to me, yesterday, that there is NO MORE EATING OFF OF THE FLOOR. No five-second rule, no three-second rule, no eating anything that touches the floor, period.

The reason, they went on to explain, was that (they heard that) "this virus is especially heavy, much heavier than other viruses, so it ends-up on the floor".

I gasped (for air) and grasped (for my handy handle on reality), and the best I could come up with (hey, it was real-time) was that it was like dropping a goldfish bowl; what made the mess was not the size of the goldfish, but the size of the bowl.

Actually, that's not too bad. The nanoscopic virus is in a microscopic water droplet. Larger water droplets fall more quickly, and smaller water droplets fall more slowly ("aerosol") because air is, like, you know, made of stuff.

I have this non-memory of sucking on a joint and exhaling: "Whoa, man, heavy virus."

Cheers,

/s/ ikeyPikey

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Linus

17 Mar 2020
09:39:19am

re: Coronavirus

A few ramblings from me...

We need to make sure the hundreds of medical school students graduate on time. They have spent almost 8 years in college, and they are almost finished. Give them their white coats and assign them across the country without delay. Us older folk, and the country, are going to need these young people on the front lines of this virus.

Keep eating your bacon and eggs for breakfast. There will be no shortage. Iowa has millions of chickens and millions of pigs. Farmers are producing more food every single day across North America. The workers who collect the eggs dress like ER nurses, and you cannot enter turkey or hog production facilites without protective gear. It has been this way for years. No days off for the farmer, as spring planting is coming up soon.

Got my worm bedding ready, the rains will come.
The worms will come out and "the early bird catches the worm." That's me.
The fish will start biting, and I know where to catch the walleyes, crappies, blue gills, and catfish. My fillet knife is sharp.
The asparagus and rhubarb will come up, and I know where the morel mushrooms can be found in the woods. The potatoes and onions will be planted, the raspberries will come on.

And so it goes...a country boy can survive.

Linus


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philb

18 Mar 2020
03:31:35pm

Auctions

re: Coronavirus

Linus, i agree, i think folks will find out they can get along on the basic stuff oatmeal,tea, the weekly coupon sales. I grew up on a farm..i had to do my share..but we ate very well.

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Linus

18 Mar 2020
05:12:51pm

re: Coronavirus

Phil, I challenged my wife to see how long we could go before we had to go to the grocery store. She said "when the milk runs out." She drinks milk, I do not. I told her I would get her a gallon at the gas station when I fill up the gas containers for the lawn mower, as the grass is just starting to green up here.

We have the greatest food production and distribution system in the world. Fuel shortage is not a problem. Stores will have temporary shortages, but they will be restocked, just have a little patience.

And if you truly have a need, I quote Mr. Fred Rogers:

“When I was a boy and I would see scary things in the news, my mother would say to me, "Look for the helpers. You will always find people who are helping.”

You might have to ask for the help, but Mr. Rogers spoke the truth.

Linus



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philb

18 Mar 2020
08:07:52pm

Auctions

re: Coronavirus

When i was a kid i would never ask for help...it took a lifetime but i am better at it now. Our cars did not move today...but i better pick up a tonic water for my wifes happy hour tomorrow.

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Brechinite

Neddie Seagoon from The Telegoons
19 Mar 2020
06:15:45am

Auctions - Approvals

re: Coronavirus

Insurance...Man's Insurmountable Burden.

Just learned that ALL insurance companies will not pay out on their Business Interuption Disease clause. Why? Covid-19 is a new disease and not on their list!! So much for their "All Risks" policies.

I heap a plague of locusts upon them!!

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"StayAlert.......Control The Virus.......Save Lives."

Silence in the face of adversity is the father of complicity and collusion, the first cousins of conspiracy..
19 Mar 2020
07:46:47am

re: Coronavirus

" .... I went out to pick up a few groceries today - the stores really are out of toilet paper! Can anyone out there explain why there is a run (s?) on toilet paper. It really doesn't make sense to me! ''''"

I think that some folks noticed that one of the potential side effects of Covid-19 is or can be, diarrhea, and perhaps those who are usually referred to as "Big Bottoms" just got the ball rolling and the news then spread to some who are actually just "small bottoms."

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".... You may think you understood what you thought I said, but I'm not sure you realize that what you think you heard is not what I thought I meant. .... "
Benque

19 Mar 2020
08:13:05am

re: Coronavirus

I heard that if 1 person sneezes, 100 people will crap themselves.

I went shopping yesterday, to stock up on essentials, and saw piles of T-Paper on sale, with the regular shelves fully stocked, as usual. Actually, I didn't notice anything different in the supermarket, or on the streets. Traffic only slightly down from normal. Only 1 person wearing a mask.
I'm in Mexico, by the way. People don't seem to panic here, over every little thing. Let's see how it all develops, as time goes by.

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smaier

Sally
19 Mar 2020
08:44:08am

re: Coronavirus

Since Iowa has now closed all restaurants and banned meetings of more than 10 people, we have had to cancel our stamp club meeting for next week. Half of our members don't have computers or cell phones so we can't even do a meeting in virtual space.

The economic fallout is already hitting our family - my niece (an accountant) lost her job yesterday as the restaurant chain she worked for closed all 33 locations. My oldest daughter is interviewing for architect positions and was told yesterday that one firm likely won't be able to hire anyone this year. She is still in the running for several other positions so she still has hope.

Very thankful to have a job in a hospital. All employees are being screened before entering the facility. My husband works in a different hospital in the emergency room - he said two different families were caught trying to steal boxes of face masks so now the masks are in a secure location under lock and key. Very strange times we are living in...

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Linus

19 Mar 2020
08:51:19am

re: Coronavirus

"Can anyone out there explain why there is a run (s?) on toilet paper. "



Millions of people are working from home, and were told to stock up on supplies to stay inside for 2 to 3 weeks. The size of the packages of toilet paper used to be 2 rolls or 4 rolls per package in the old days, but not anymore. They are now mostly 12 rolls, 18 rolls, and the "Cosco-size" that is as big as a bale of hay. That makes less number of packages on the shelves, because they are bigger in size. The shelves go empty much faster.

Factory workers are probably working overtime in Green Bay, Wisconsin, "The Toilet Paper Capital of the World." Truck drivers have to drive it from Green Bay to rest of the country. It takes time to resupply. Somewhere, they are chopping down a lot of trees, probably in Canada.

Linus
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Snick1946

APS Life Member
19 Mar 2020
11:14:29am

re: Coronavirus

It’s getting wild out there.

Last evening some guy walked into the Supermarket near us with a .45 automatic and started shooting. Not at people, at windows and stuff on the shelves. Guess he was annoyed they’re still out of TP. He got tackled by security but the store closed until today.

Today, same store- I was checking out and the checker, an older guy I knew from when we worked together at my former job, commented ‘They don’t know where this virus came from’. I said they do, from Wuhan he said ‘well that’s what THEY want you to believe.’ He then went into detail about what should happen to the store owner in Wuhan where it started, something about taking him behind a building and putting a bullet in his head. I told him i think that already happened. Then I remembered why I avoided him when we worked together.

I'm stuck at home along with my wife and 23 year old son who is telecommuting. I figure I can still get out for walks so long as I don't stop to talk to anybody.

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Dakota

19 Mar 2020
11:19:41am

Auctions

re: Coronavirus

Around here the toilet paper and paper towel shelves are empty but also the egg shelves. I don't have a clue what people are doing with all of the eggs. My brother works at Walmart. He said when the truck comes in they have to block the aisle so they can restock because people are trying to open the cases to get the toilet paper.

I guess some people dance to a different drummer.

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BrightonPete

19 Mar 2020
12:17:34pm

re: Coronavirus

I went for a few (yes, just a few) groceries yesterday. Bread, Eggs & milk were pretty much cleaned out. Still a few, but not much. Of course TP disappeared last week!

They'll be re-stocked soon enough for people to go crazy again!

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Brechinite

Neddie Seagoon from The Telegoons
19 Mar 2020
01:16:55pm

Auctions - Approvals

re: Coronavirus

I go to the supermarket in Forfar every Thursday at the same time of day. I normally buy the same things. Yes I am a creature of habit.

I spend around £35 every week there.

Today I spent £3.60!!

ie 1 loaf of bread and 2 Bottles of diluting juice.

No milk, no beans, no butter, no eggs, no Coke, etc etc etc.

I came back to Brechin, went to the supermarket there and couldn't get the car parked as the car park was full. Drove home then walked to the supermarket and only able to buy 1 pint of milk and a bottle of coke.

The "locusts" had cleaned out the store of everything I wanted.


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sheepshanks

19 Mar 2020
01:30:46pm

re: Coronavirus

Thought you might appreciate this Ian.
A Wee Bit of Scottish Patter ???????????????????????????? ???????????? to keep us smiling ????

Tae a virus

Twa months ago, we didna ken,
yer name or ocht aboot ye
But lots of things have changed since then,
I really must salute ye

Yer spreading rate is quite intense,
yer feeding like a gannet
Disruption caused, is so immense,
ye’ve shaken oor wee planet.

Corona used tae be a beer,
they garnished it wae limes
But noo it’s filled us awe wae fear
These days, are scary times.

Nae shakin hawns, or peckin lips,
it’s whit they awe advise
But scrub them weel, richt tae the tips,
that’s how we’ll awe survive

Just stay inside , the hoose, ye bide
Nae sneakin oot for strolls
Just check the lavvy every hoor
And stock-take, your, loo rolls

Our holidays have been pit aff
Noo that’s the Jet2 patter
Pit oan yer thermals, have a laugh
And paddle ‘ doon the waater ‘

Canary isles, no for a while
Nae need for suntan cream
And awe because o this wee bug
We ken tae be..19

The boredom surely will set in,
But have a read, or doodle
Or plan yer menu for the month
Wi 95 pot noodles.

When these run oot, just look aboot
A change, it would be nice
We’ve beans and pasta By the ton
and twenty stane o rice.

So dinny think yell wipe us oot
Aye true, a few have died
Bubonic, bird flu, and Tb
They came, they left, they tried

Ye might be gallus noo ma freen
As ye jump fae cup tae cup
But when we get oor vaccine made
Yer number will be up.
Willie Sinclair.... March2020

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ikeyPikey

19 Mar 2020
02:11:43pm

re: Coronavirus

Coronavirus Poem ... Coronaverse ?

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Brechinite

Neddie Seagoon from The Telegoons
19 Mar 2020
04:12:19pm

Auctions - Approvals

re: Coronavirus

Sheepshanks:-

Pure dead brilliant, by the way!

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okstamps

19 Mar 2020
09:54:25pm

re: Coronavirus

My local WalMart had just opened a drive-up in February. When I had ordered some canned diced tomatoes through Amazon last week, the order was canceled the next day because they were out of stock (or so they said). So I figured I would try my local WalMart - by using drive-up, I wouldn't need to walk through the virus soup inside. So I ordered my canned diced tomatoes (limited to two cans) and a few other things on Tuesday for pick-up on Wednesday. When Wednesday came around, I got an email from WalMart informing me that some of the items on my list were no longer available, with one item being canned diced tomatoes.

What is it with the canned diced tomatoes!

So I tried Amazon again, but now what had been selling for less than $1 a can is priced for at least $2 a can if not more (some were offering one can for as much as $30!).

So I went back to the online WalMart option. They had about a dozen different options available, with different brands, different sizes, some with peppers included, etc. So I ordered one or two of each, whatever I was allowed to do. I will see tomorrow if I end up with a year's supply of canned diced tomatoes or nothing at all.

Guess the convenience of having whatever we want at our fingertips at a moments notice is no longer an option, at least for a short while.

By the way, I noticed that I am now at a greater risk from this virus for another reason on top of my four previous risk factors. (1) I am over 60 years of age, (2) I am overweight, (3) I have high blood pressure (controlled with medication), (4) I have Type II diabetes (again controlled with medication), and now (5) I have Type B blood. Apparently people with Type B blood have a higher risk of developing a severe illness from the virus and also to die from this illness. I figured the WalMart drive-up would give me the best chance to maintain social distancing.

I also ordered some eggs and a five pound bag of potatoes. It will be interesting to see what will still be available tomorrow.

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ikeyPikey

19 Mar 2020
11:28:43pm

re: Coronavirus

Being naturally suspicious of anything tied to blood types - that goofy match-your-diet-to-your-blood-type fad comes to mind - I googled and, relax okstamps, the elevated risk (in one study, not yet peer-reviewed) was for Type A, not (your )Type B.

The primary reason to be suspicious of any claim tied to blood types is that, had there been a strong survival advantage to one type over another, we probably would not have different types. Duh.

Cheers,

/s/ ikeyPikey

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DannyS

20 Mar 2020
05:41:34am

re: Coronavirus

The reason people are stockpiling canned tomatoes is to make sauces for the pasta they stockpiled earlierHappy

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angore

Collector, Moderator
20 Mar 2020
06:27:34am

re: Coronavirus

I suspect some will have enough hoarded items to last a very long time.

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ernieinjax

20 Mar 2020
12:45:59pm

re: Coronavirus

Bad news. I'm furloughed for a minimum of 30 days. Couldnt have come at a worse time.

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ikeyPikey

20 Mar 2020
03:47:19pm

re: Coronavirus

'
Went to my local Stop'n'Shop for the 0600-0730 Senior Shopping Window.

At 0559, the parking lot was full.

I had expected that Take Your Child to Work Day would become Take Your Parent to the Grocery Day, but not one attendee appeared to be under 60.

The store had some TP, and some bleach, and a zillion flavors of bottled water.

The canned beans were gone, as were most of the canned veggies and all of the distilled water (saving an idiot friend, who drinks the stuff).

The "self serve" (eg self-grab & self-scoop) stuff will not be re-stocked for the duration, so no loose bagels (plenty in bags of 6) and no olives (etc).

All in all, a good time was had by all.

Cheers,

/s/ ikeyPikey

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larsdog

APS #220693 ATA#57179
20 Mar 2020
04:41:40pm

re: Coronavirus

I'm on lockdown so I work with my stamps and visit StampoRama to see what's happening and ...

Wait a minute, nothing has changed.

Some days it's GOOD to be an introvert!

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Strider

20 Mar 2020
08:44:10pm

re: Coronavirus

We're holed up here in south Bucks with the dog. In the past two days, two of our little grandchildren (they live about 12 miles away) have gone down with temperature and coughing, so it's likely their mum and dad will get it too. We were last with them last Thursday - so we're keeping fingers crossed till next Tuesday.

No eggs in the house now. But we have lots of food in the freezer, quite a lot of wine and some whisky and gin. And we've booked a grocery delivery for a week tomorrow, so we should be OK. No newspapers though. We take a brisk walk each day over fields and woods, keeping at least 2 metres away from anyone we meet.

But I have a heap of Latin American stamps to sort and get into the album, courtesy of SOR (thanks Bob!).

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Snick1946

APS Life Member
21 Mar 2020
10:29:12am

re: Coronavirus

If you're sheltering in place and want to do some stamping, don't plan on placing orders from Mystic; they've shut down, per this email:

'Due to the ongoing COVID-19 crisis, Mystic is unable to ship orders until further notice. You can still add items to your shopping cart and you can place orders. Mystic will charge your credit card when you place an order, and ship it as soon as possible. Thank you for your understanding in these difficult times. Stay safe and enjoy your collections.'

Apparently it's proven to be a real crisis and not hysteria by the media..

We're also on lock down. Local media keeps telling people to 'have essential goods delivered'. How?? The big food chains here no longer will do this. I tried shopping this week, I felt I risked my life to do so. The public seems not to be getting the message about social distancing.


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BrightonPete

21 Mar 2020
11:20:48am

re: Coronavirus

Same with the APS Stamp Store. Shut down. No orders taken for later.

It's getting worse day by day. Hopefully people will stay in place for a while while this thing blows over. Unfortunately, people where I am are going about it as any other day prior to this blowing up. All it takes is one person to mess things up!

I was out this morning for a walk at 6AM. Only saw one other person outside, and a few cars. I'll be out after dinner as well, as not many are out then either. Just need to get some steps in to help my back.

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philb

21 Mar 2020
11:31:16am

Auctions

re: Coronavirus

Hope i am not complaining,we are two senior citizens with no pre existing conditions...we still have the stamps and the internet..but all of a sudden to not have my gym,my favorite Chinese buffet..what happens to 30 or so Chinese waiters and food staff in the Hudson Valley when the owner shuts the door ? We will not hoard.. a couple of trips to the grocery store a week will do for us...we not the ones with the huge rolls of paper towels and toliet paper. The kids are reluctant to come around and possibly infect us. Sorry to hear about Ernie being laid off.

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musicman

APS #213005
21 Mar 2020
12:17:40pm

re: Coronavirus

I'm an auto mechanic and we are still working, albeit slowing down with a few cancellations here and there.

But people still want their cars fixed - I assume as maybe their last bastion of freedom.

With gas prices down, people are taking to scenic drives just to get out.


It has been troublesome, though;

VERY difficult to avoid all germs when having to get in and out of other peoples' vehicles all day long. Impossible to sterilize an entire interior/exterior of a car. One sneeze and its everywhere. Weighs on all our minds here constantly.

What do you wipe down???
Steering wheels and columns
Inside and outside door handles
door frames
shift levers
wiper levers
arm rests
center consoles
glove box
keys
seat levers
hood release
fuel door release
And anything else we have to touch to work on....


Good grief.....

D'Oh

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Snick1946

APS Life Member
21 Mar 2020
12:28:03pm

re: Coronavirus

I think this was discussed on here but I'm worried about incoming mail having this stuff. I read the virus can live on paper or cardboard for anywhere from 1-3 days, and that doesn't count infection from a sick mail carrier. I went on a buying spree last week to have stuff to work on now I have a pile of unopened orders sitting on my bookcase.

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ikeyPikey

21 Mar 2020
01:26:25pm

re: Coronavirus

"... I'm an auto mechanic and we are still working ..."



One of the better questions asked of Hizzoner (Mayor Bill de Blasio) yesterday was why car repair shops are allowed to be open (under the Governor's state-wide order) as essential services while bicycle repair shops are not ... even though folks are being encouraged to stay off the trains'n'buses, get a little exercise, and are allowed to run errands.

Hizzoner promised an answer today.

Cheers,

/s/ ikeyPikey (who is not afraid of the virus entering his home on incoming postal mail because of the degree of automation, the gloves he sees on USPS employees, and the fact that water droplets soak into paper & then evaporate, leaving the virus high & dry & dead) (but who, to be fair, will report that his daughter has been spraying Lysol on incoming boxes from Amazon)
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sheepshanks

21 Mar 2020
04:39:14pm

re: Coronavirus

Just in case anyone has not had their fill of statistics this site has plenty.
https://virusncov.com/

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jkc1999

21 Mar 2020
08:03:43pm

re: Coronavirus

I'm essential personnel so I am working as usual. I am work in social services with individuals with disabilities. It's been interesting to keep all of my houses stocked with paper products since we are used to shopping weekly for items. Most of the population is high risk so everyone is home. Thankful for great staff who continue to show up and thankful I have a job.

jackie

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philb

22 Mar 2020
08:28:50am

Auctions

re: Coronavirus

Jackie, my daughter and her boyfriend are both social services supervisors with Dutchess County, N.Y. He had 50 hours overtime last week (on call 24 hours).

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ikeyPikey

22 Mar 2020
11:01:51am

re: Coronavirus

Yesterday being the last day that 'non-essential' travel was permitted, I hit the MickeyD drive-thru for a large decaf, and headed on down to a little strip of beach to drink it ... parking my car one space away from the other cars, of course.

The drinking done, I went for a walk on the beach, and came across a long line of clothing, washed-up with last night's high(er) tide.

I was later able to work-out that some he-donkey(s) had entertained themselves by heaving large bags of clothing off of the nearby causeway into Jamaica Bay. Don't know why the clothes were bagged ... moving? donating? ... but it was clear that, left where they were, they'd be ruined.

Anyway, after consulting my Family's Counter-Vandalism Anti-Litter Policy - which states clearly that, if you pick it up and properly dispose of it, you won't have to see it again on your next visit - I gathered-up & bagged about a cubic meter of wet cloth (ouch), drove home, stood over a laundry sink and washed the sand out of each piece (lotsa wet denim, lotsa wet sand), downed an ibuprofen, ran it all thru my building's washers on the hot cycle (twice each for four loads), ran it all thru a hot dryer, folded it nicely, downed another ibuprofen, and only then learned that the NYC Dept of Sanitation textile/clothing recycling program is considered a non-essential service (ouch), so I've not only got this large pile of ready-to-donate clothing with nowhere to go, I've also got this week's compostable food scraps sitting in my freezer with nowhere to go (op cit NYC Dept of Sanitation non-essential services).

Rescuing clothing is a nice hobby, but I wish I could find a hobby focused on things that are smaller & lighter.

Cheers,

/s/ ikeyPikey

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jbaxter5256

22 Mar 2020
11:46:00am

re: Coronavirus

Thanks for doing it anyway! I appreciate your efforts very much. Thumbs Up

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BrightonPete

22 Mar 2020
12:21:14pm

re: Coronavirus

"Rescuing clothing is a nice hobby, but I wish I could find a hobby focused on things that are smaller & lighter.
"


Might I suggest "stamp collecting"?

Rolling On The Floor Laughing

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musicman

APS #213005
22 Mar 2020
12:24:28pm

re: Coronavirus

He got ya there, Ikey....

LaughingLaughingLaughingLaughingLaughingLaughingLaughingLaughingLaughing

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smaier

Sally
22 Mar 2020
01:37:19pm

re: Coronavirus

IkeyPikey - your story brought back memories - several years ago someone dumped a large laundry basket of clothing on our rural road. Rather than look at it forever, i loaded it into my car, washed it, and donated it. Nice to know others do that too! Thanks for cleaning up your beachThumbs Up

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Brechinite

Neddie Seagoon from The Telegoons
23 Mar 2020
01:54:50pm

Auctions - Approvals

re: Coronavirus

Jings!...Crivvens!...Help Ma Boab!

The Scottish Government has shut down all shops other than food and medical.

The result is "she who must be obeyed" will now be at home.

There goes the wild parties, the drinking sessions and my stamp time will be reduced. No doubt she will find more chores for me to do.

I dread it when she says "I have been thinking" 'cos it means work for me.

Woe! Woe! and thrice Woe!




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BenFranklin1902

Tom in Exton, PA
23 Mar 2020
01:54:54pm

Approvals

re: Coronavirus

Sally, someone could’ve lost their laundry out the back of a pickup or from where they had it sitting on their roof or trunk lid! When I travel the interstates im amused at the stuff people lose off vehicles. Lotsa clothing and I’m most intrigued by the occasional single couch cushion.

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ernieinjax

23 Mar 2020
04:03:44pm

re: Coronavirus

Ian,
You're gonna get the full brunt of what's up. Take it like a man. I recieved word that I'll be working from home. I hit the trunk release, they toss a computer and soft phone in my car. Problem solved.

What saddens me more than anything else is that Florida State graduation had been cancelled. Not postponed, but cancelled. As in not gonna happen. That's sad. My daughter Grace kicked ass there in science and math. Oh well.

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sheepshanks

23 Mar 2020
04:22:30pm

re: Coronavirus

Ernie, as an Englishman I could never understand this graduation thing, last thing I wanted to do was hang around school, left on Friday started work on Monday. Seems like an excuse for clothing shops and liquor stores to make money.
I had taken my GCE's (exams)and passed, no course work was counted, you either knew the subject and answered the written questions (no calculators, but trig tables supplied)or you were not able.
Guess life changes but not always for the better.

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51Studebaker

Dialysis, damned if you do...dead if you don't
23 Mar 2020
05:00:26pm

re: Coronavirus

In the meantime in the USA…
40,000 people die each year in auto accidents
88,000 people die each year in alcohol-related deaths
260,000 people die each year due to medical mistakes
480,000 people die each year due to cigarette smoking (includes 41,000+ deaths resulting from secondhand smoke exposure)

Not too many headlines or folks freaking out over these people dying around us every day.

I guess I am just used to living with the grim reaper looking over my shoulder. After living through 5 long years of doctor after doctor tell me that I had a 5% chance of living longer than 6 months I learned how to cope. I still live day-to-day and have many more gray sky days than blue sky days.

But…so what? Everything eventually falls apart. The computer you are using to read this right now will fall apart. The chair you are sitting in will fall apart. The house you are in will fall apart. The earth itself will eventually fall apart. And most certainly we will all fall apart. I see little value in focusing on falling apart. Turn off the news, they are sowing division and hatred. Live each day to the fullest; try to laugh, cry, and learn something new every day.
Don

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sheepshanks

23 Mar 2020
05:18:53pm

re: Coronavirus

Regarding the auto accidents, more people have died on Canadian roads since 1950 than Canadian service folk who died in both world wars together.
Sad but true.

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ikeyPikey

23 Mar 2020
07:15:34pm

re: Coronavirus

"... Sally, someone could’ve lost their laundry out the back of a pickup or from where they had it sitting on their roof or trunk lid! ..."



Agreed, but the bag had to fly a good six feet laterally and clear a >2-foot-high railing to sail into the bay ... the dry clothes, now bagged by the door, weigh 35 pounds ... so my first guess was he-donkeys giving the bag the Old Heave Ho.

Now that you mention it, though, the bag could have been stacked onto a collection truck - perhaps a large open-topped deuce-and-a-half - in which case it would have been ten feet off the pavement when it began its roll.

Dunno,

/s/ ikeyPikey (still enjoying his smug self-satisfaction for a job well done) Laughing

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Brechinite

Neddie Seagoon from The Telegoons
23 Mar 2020
07:22:10pm

Auctions - Approvals

re: Coronavirus

Ernie:- I can have sympathy for you and your daughter. To be able to have the hard work recognised by their peers and family is a once in a lifetime experience.

However at my sons graduation he did admit that he hadn't worked too hard. Why? Because he had a whale of a time!!

As for taking it like a man. I know my position in life:- Bottom rung of the ladder, beneath the cat and the dog!LaughingLaughing

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jbaxter5256

23 Mar 2020
10:00:24pm

re: Coronavirus

Ian,

I can commiserate with you on the Scotland closures as Washington state's governor, Jay Inslee, just announced a mandatory stay at home for non-essential workers as well starting in 46.5 hours from now. I can already see the wheels turning in my wife's head about all the cleaning and garage emptying that should be going on during this home based stay. Unfortunately for me, my company will probably decide that I can do all of my work remotely which is more difficult to do in many respects and MUCH more stressful to do. Crying

For most clients my highest priority tasks for the last two and a half weeks has involved setting up remote access or expanding its capacity so their employees can work remotely or resolving issues with their remote connectivity. I have also been upgrading client home computers from Windows 7 to Windows 10 due to security concerns as well.

Jerrel

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larsdog

APS #220693 ATA#57179
24 Mar 2020
02:26:59am

re: Coronavirus

"In the meantime in the USA…
40,000 people die each year in auto accidents
88,000 people die each year in alcohol-related deaths
260,000 people die each year due to medical mistakes
480,000 people die each year due to cigarette smoking (includes 41,000+ deaths resulting from secondhand smoke exposure)

Not too many headlines or folks freaking out over these people dying around us every day."



It's not the deaths from COVID-19 per se that is scary. In fact, there is little hope of stopping many (most?) of the deaths now in the U.S. because we, as a whole, lack the will to really take the necessary precautions to arrest the spread like China, South Korea, and Singapore ultimately did. Western Europe is probably a better barometer of what is coming.

That means we can expect a third to half of the country will be exposed to the virus, and half of those will become infected. That's about 50 million infected, most of them very mild cases. It's the 2 or 3 million serious cases that will overwhelm the medical system if they hit within a narrow window. With a 1% mortality rate we're likely looking at 500,000 fatalities if nothing changes. If those people were dying at home of heart attacks, the numbers above would be relevant for comparison. But the 2.5 million serious cases need ventilators because this is a respiratory disease. (The technical term is SARS-CoV-2, and yes, this is a cousin of "SARS" (and MERS), and SARS stands for "Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome"). If we overwhelm the system, those 500,000 dead could easily become 1 million dead, or more, if we have to triage patients and decide who is left to certainly die and who is given a chance to live. Italy knows all to well about that outcome already.

We missed the opportunity to get out in front of this with testing. All we can do now is TRY to lower the peak load on hospitals and delay in hopes we can catch up with the medical supplies we need to keep our doctors and nurses safe. (Hoping for a cure before the peak hits is wishful thinking, and wishful thinking is NOT an effective strategy in the real world very often).

If the current trend holds, we will have over 100,000 infected and over 1,000 dead in the U.S. before March is over. April is when the disaster really strikes. Shortages of masks and other protective gear could become widespread. Close to 1 million infected (if we are able to adequately test) and over 10,000 dead by April 15. What happens after that depends on the steps we take now, but my guess would be 2.5 million infected and 40,000 dead by the end of April. Plus who knows how many other deaths due to overburdened hospitals and staff. That's just the U.S.

The number officially reported as "infected" will vary due to testing availability and protocols, so the number of deaths will provide a better statistical picture of reality, albeit after the fact.

So my prediction for the U.S. is:
March 31 - over 100,000 infected; over 1,000 dead
April 15 - 500,000 to 1 million infected; around 10,000 dead
April 30 - tbd based on government action or inaction, but I wouldn't be surprised to see over 25,000 dead by April 30.

This isn't politics. This is math.
If someone else has looked at the data and drawn a significantly different conclusion, please let me know. I would sleep better if I was wrong about this.

And if I am wrong, and it's not that bad, feel free to call me all the names you want. I won't care because I will be too busy being happy things turned out so well.

Lars
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51Studebaker

Dialysis, damned if you do...dead if you don't
24 Mar 2020
05:30:32am

re: Coronavirus

Hi Lars,
Your post only appears to be considering the possible negative scenarios. Your trajectory outlines a worst case scenario, do you really feel that there is no possibility of anything good happening? That business will not figure out ways to address the shortages? That science and the healthcare system will not find ways to treat people? That longer term there will be no cures? I am pretty sure that the strategy of ‘social distancing’ and shutting down the economy is designed to buy a bit of time to allow solutions to be put into place.

I lived the last 6 years with a 95% chance of dying hanging over my head. One of the few things that was in my power was how I would think about the future and spend my time. If I only considered worst case scenarios, I would have just crawled into my bed and died. I have faith in several forms beyond spiritual; I have faith in science, I have faith in technology, I have faith in people, I have faith in myself. These faiths are bigger than my fears.

The current situation can be viewed as a glass half full, half empty, or a balance between the two. I know that the unknown can be fearful but when the outcome is unknown why not take a balanced perspective? Good things can and do happen.
Don

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ikeyPikey

24 Mar 2020
06:57:02am

re: Coronavirus

Israeli Inventions That Lessen The Healthcare System’s Burden

https://tinyurl.com/v2vez19

Happy reading, and an example that, like the virus, we are also a moving target.

/s/ ikeyPikey (who apologizes for the re-direct, but the original URL contains multiple commas, which give our system fits)

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larsdog

APS #220693 ATA#57179
24 Mar 2020
10:39:33am

re: Coronavirus

"do you really feel that there is no possibility of anything good happening? "



Of course it's possible, and I would welcome any and all good things happening.

"That business will not figure out ways to address the shortages? "



Masks? Yes. Ventilators? Maybe. Manufacturing more doctors and nurses in 6 weeks? Not so much.

"That science and the healthcare system will not find ways to treat people?"



Eventually, yes, but will it be in time to make a dramatic difference? I hope so, but you plan for the worst and hope for the best.

"That longer term there will be no cures?"



I am counting on a vaccine within 18 months. We can't afford to let this become a seasonal thing!

"I am pretty sure that the strategy of ‘social distancing’ and shutting down the economy is designed to buy a bit of time to allow solutions to be put into place."



The stated goal is to "flatten the curve" so we don't overwhelm the hospitals, but if people are still congregating to see the Cherry blossoms in D.C. or hang out on the beach in Florida for Spring Break before going back home all over the country, we won't be as successful as we need to be.

I hope a miracle happens and it's not that bad. That would be wonderful.

"I know that the unknown can be fearful but when the outcome is unknown why not take a balanced perspective?"



I'm not fearful of the outcome. I am sad for those who suffer. But I think mine IS a balanced perspective. Worst case scenario would be social breakdown in a country with more guns than people. Best case scenario is a miracle treatment tomorrow. Reality likely resides in the middle somewhere.



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Harvey

I think, therefore I am - I think!

24 Mar 2020
10:45:08am

re: Coronavirus

I live in a rural area fairly close to Halifax, N.S. and our area is now covered by emergency measures which closes all parks, most trails and all beaches. The reason they had to do this is the severe lack of common sense. A few days ago we had a warm(ish) sunny day and I drove past a local beach - it was packed and most of the provincial parks were packed as well - so much for social distancing. I saw pictures of the Florida beaches last weekend, spring break, and the beaches were full of kids! We have younger people in the local area referring to this pandemic as "The Boomer Killer", running around the stores coughing and spitting at people screaming that they are "spreading the Covid". Things are getting very weird and strange! To all parents - Do you know where your kids are and what they are doing? If everyone would do their bit maybe this would dissipate quickly, but people really have to realize that this is a serious thing! This has nothing to do with stamps, just sayin'...

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vjones48

There is brilliance in simplicity
24 Mar 2020
12:29:28pm

re: Coronavirus


Just wanted to say,well said Lars, I think as you do.

I have a great deal of faith in Humanity ability to adapt and overcome.



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larsdog

APS #220693 ATA#57179
24 Mar 2020
01:48:27pm

re: Coronavirus

""The Boomer Killer""



I have also heard "Boomer Remover". Classy.

"I have a great deal of faith in Humanity ability to adapt and overcome."



I do, too. I watched Neil Armstrong walk on the moon! The problem with this virus is that the time for action has long past when reality sets in. There will be heroes in this, though, and I will be grateful for the doctors and nurses that innovate and improvise to save as many lives as possible.

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angore

Collector, Moderator
24 Mar 2020
02:41:18pm

re: Coronavirus

A comment from Emily Landon, the chief infectious disease epidemiologist at University of Chicago Medicine

“It’s really hard to feel like you’re saving the world when you’re watching Netflix from your couch. But if we do this right, nothing happens,” Landon said. “A successful shelter-in-place means you’re going to feel like it was all for nothing, and you’d be right: Because nothing means that nothing happened to your family. And that’s what we’re going for here.”

I am sure there will be it was all about nothing when it is over and not learn anything for the future. Like other initiatives, there may be a flurry of activity but over time people will fall back and get to relearn again.

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Benque

24 Mar 2020
02:54:04pm

re: Coronavirus

Maybe in places like USA, Canada, UK and parts of Europe, but here in Mexico I already see people beginning to disregard the self-quarantine, etc, and acting as if it is already over.
Frankly, I expect a big increase of cases here soon, as those already exposed begin to feel symptoms. Most of these will already have passed on their contagion before feeling ill.
We've all got to be careful until we KNOW that the risk is down near zero.

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Retired Ap. Book Mod, Pres Golden Gate Stamp Club, Hi Tech Consultant
24 Mar 2020
03:07:38pm

re: Coronavirus

On a lighter note:
Image Not Found

rrr...

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larsdog

APS #220693 ATA#57179
24 Mar 2020
03:26:30pm

re: Coronavirus

Also on a lighter note, Jimmy Fallon invited people to describe their quarantine in 6 words with #MyQuarantineInSixWords. Some of the gems:

Have I had a shower today?
We can work in pajamas now?
We can drink at work now?
Day two: All snacks are gone!
This ends in divorce or murder!

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Stampme

25 Mar 2020
09:41:06am

re: Coronavirus

SPEAKING OF FAKE NEWS...THERE WAS NO TRAVEL BAN

A travel ban was NOT instituted in January. A travel restriction was put in place. A travel restriction allowed what can only be termed numerous loopholes so that people could travel FROM and TO China--and they did. They also traveled to and from South Korea, and other places in Asia that had virus problems--they were not restricted.

Additionally, 300,000 people had traveled from China to the US one month before the travel restrictions imposed on January 31 by the way NOT by one person but by a consensus in the government.

Regardless, the virus is here. And, as the old folks would have said: We've been caught with our pants down.

Bruce

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michael78651

25 Mar 2020
12:36:08pm

re: Coronavirus

The best way to not get caught with your pants down is to not wear pants.

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Opa

25 Mar 2020
03:26:45pm

re: Coronavirus


We were told at work yesterday that we have to get rid of our overtime hours so that the company can apply for short time work. I only work 3 days a week for 4 hours until after Easter plus a 6 day long weekend. Also everyone at work received a travel-pass today just incase.

Stores are only letting in one person per shopping wagon to keep customers apart at the cashiers. They have also limited the number of people to 1 per 10 square meters in a store, security guards enforce this. Only 2 people are allowed to be together outside and must keep a distance of 1.5 meters. This law doesn´t apply to people who life together. If your caught with more than 3 people the police can fine each person 200 Euros. If you get caught a second time 25 000 Euros are possible. We are not yet restricted to stay inside (yet), but we have to keep our distance from others.

Here in Germany as of today, 181 dead. Most were over the age of 81.

I almost forgot, some stores are restricting their toilet paper to 1 pack a person. This is good because I´m running low.

So all I can say is be very careful and stay away from others.

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ikeyPikey

25 Mar 2020
05:13:18pm

re: Coronavirus

Senior Shopping Hours ... quite the list !

https://www.snopes.com/news/2020/03/20/grocery-stores-special-hours/

Q/ How long will MVS (Most Vulnerable Shopper) Hours persist once Covid-19 is past ?

Cheers,

/s/ ikeyPikey (whose local Trader Joe & Costco both instituted social distance protocols during regular business hours by limiting the number of people in the store at any one time)

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BenFranklin1902

Tom in Exton, PA
25 Mar 2020
05:23:36pm

Approvals

re: Coronavirus

We went to the store after 10am on Monday. It wasn’t crowded and we were able to get everything we needed. Cashier said it was very crowded early during the senior time.

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BrightonPete

25 Mar 2020
09:03:15pm

re: Coronavirus

"We went to the store after 10am on Monday. It wasn’t crowded and we were able to get everything we needed. Cashier said it was very crowded early during the senior tim"


I figured as much. MVS hours 7AM-8AM, regular hours 8AM-8PM. I went at 7.45PM and there few a few other shoppers. I think that is a better time to go & will continue with that plan. But still, people here do not respect boundaries with the social distancing. I have to do the best to stay away from others. One guy I swerved off the sidewalk to the middle off the road chuckled when I did that. All it takes is 1 person to continue the spread!
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smauggie

25 Mar 2020
11:20:10pm

re: Coronavirus

With 3M and Medtronic being based in Minnesota, we produce both masks and ventilators. 3M ramped up it's mask production to around 35 million per month. The state also has a Ventilator Reserve Program for emergencies.

Having spent just over a week in the hospital this year already (viral meningitis) I don't have any desire to go back there.


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larsdog

APS #220693 ATA#57179
26 Mar 2020
01:07:47am

re: Coronavirus

"Having spent just over a week in the hospital this year already (viral meningitis) I don't have any desire to go back there."



Amen, Brother!

Here's a toast to EVERY SoR member here (with the exception of pregnant women and their immediate families, and anyone on a continuing course of treatment, of course) - "May none of you have a need to visit a hospital as a guest or visitor this year! If you WORK at a hospital, we REALLY appreciate all that you do!"

Lars

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philb

26 Mar 2020
01:57:44pm

Auctions

re: Coronavirus

Lars, great positive post..it says a lot !

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keesindy

26 Mar 2020
01:57:47pm

re: Coronavirus

"Having spent just over a week in the hospital this year already (viral meningitis) I don't have any desire to go back there.
"



Be glad you were not in isolation where staff and visitors need to be gowned and gloved to enter the patient's room. Been through that twice recently as spouse of the patient. It's a pain for hospital staff, but a necessary precaution sometimes. It was interesting to observe the differences in how seriously staff observed the isolation protocol.

Tom
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Snick1946

APS Life Member
26 Mar 2020
02:22:04pm

re: Coronavirus

I know people can have honest differences of opinion on the severity of this situation but for heaven's sake isn't it best to assume a distancing approach?

It will get worse until people are forced to comply with social distancing. This weekend two houses in my suburban neighborhood hosted what appeared to be large family gatherings. Cars parked up and down the street just like nothing had changed. Great way to kill Grandma.

Sequel, last night I went out for a walk and ran into a block party. No kidding people sitting in their chairs in the street, standing around drinking and visiting like noting was amiss. I tried passing by quickly and one of them called out 'we're having a social distancing party!' My wife wanted me to call the cops on them. I doubted they'd do anything. It's going to need to get very bad before people take this seriously.

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ikeyPikey

26 Mar 2020
02:58:12pm

re: Coronavirus

A number of towns in Mississippi enacted local orders; the usual stuff, closing non-essential businesses, limiting gatherings, etc.

The Governor of Mississippi then exercised his authority, and nullified all of those orders.

Pretty interesting choice for a state next to Louisiana, the home of New Orleans.

Cheers,

/s/ ikeyPikey (who appreciates Federalism no matter whether it cuts his way, or not)

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larsdog

APS #220693 ATA#57179
26 Mar 2020
07:44:22pm

re: Coronavirus

I was going to wait until 3-31 to post an update, but the U.S. just jumped to the top spot for total confirmed cases, leaping past China and Italy. We have already gone past 1,000 dead and will certainly surpass 100,000 confirmed cases tomorrow. That means my projections for March 31 were on the conservative side.

I said by April 15 we would have 500,000 to 1 million infected and around 10,000 dead. I don't know if we will be able to ramp up testing enough at this point to identify that many cases, but today's numbers say that is being conservative. For the past 10 days our death toll has more than doubled EVERY three days. If we stay on that trajectory, that's 119,827 dead by April 15. Doubling every 4 days is 37,691, every 5 days is 18,849. I'm afraid we are looking at 20,000 to 25,000 dead by April 15, and that is assuming we are able to bend this curve.

This isn't a "worse case scenario". (Worst case is over 100,000 dead by April 15 and 3.8 million dead and 268 million infected by April 30 - and if we have over 250 million infected that fast we are looking at a mortality rate of at least 5%, not 1.4%, and that's 12.5 million dead). Assuming we are able to make intelligent decisions based on ever increasing test data, we may keep the death toll under 100,000 by April 30, but if we start opening up remote areas to business as usual, all bets are off because that will create an inevitable draw from infected areas to less infected areas and actually SPEED UP the spread of the virus as people in large cities flee to stay with relatives in remote areas, thinking they are getting away from the threat, but inevitably bringing the virus with them.

You may not LIKE the math (I sure don't), but this is the reality we are facing. Like I said, "April is when the disaster really strikes!"

I hope I'm wrong, but right now it looks like I was too conservative in my prior estimates. I track all of the numbers daily and REALLY hope to be able to post good news next time, but the numbers don't lie.

You can't B.S. your way through a viral pandemic!

Lars

P.S. I wish we had an icon in the bottom right that said "I don't LIKE it, but I respect the data analysis", because I certainly don't LIKE these numbers!

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BrightonPete

26 Mar 2020
08:13:13pm

re: Coronavirus

That's awful, Lars!

I heard on the news tonight that the military will be massing along the US-Canada border to prevent us Canadians from racing in to your country. I just hope that this guard will stop Americans trying to get into ours. I can't really see any of us wanting to go to your country with all those cases now!

Stay safe, hope this eventually passes. (I think a praying emoji is needed.)

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larsdog

APS #220693 ATA#57179
26 Mar 2020
08:33:37pm

re: Coronavirus

"I can't really see any of us wanting to go to your country with all those cases now!"



No doubt! I don't understand the border troop thing myself. If we are going to deploy troops to keep Canadians out, it should be in May and June. (Can you tell I'm really missing hockey right now?)

P.S. Before you say Canadians are the backbone of U.S. hockey teams, I should tell you that I'm a Red Wings fan. We use Russians! Laughing

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51Studebaker

Dialysis, damned if you do...dead if you don't
26 Mar 2020
09:07:35pm

re: Coronavirus

The USA has the most reported cases IF you want to believe China. Additionally, while the US is ranked 1st in reported cases but ranks 6th in deaths. This speaks incredibly well for the US healthcare system and brave folks who work in it. Dr. Deborah Birx said today that the extreme predictions about the pandemic don't line up with the incoming data and also said that 19 of all 50 states with confirmed cases have low levels of the outbreak. And the rate of new cases has showed a slower rate in the last 3 days. So I guess it depends which data you are doing math upon. No doubt that the number of cases is going up as it was expected. But what is the asymptomatic math? No one knows in any country how many people are walking around with it and have no symptom or have had it and do not know it. When all countries final get antibody testing in place we will get the data needed to understand what is going on and be able to calculate accurate mortality rates. Until then the math is incomplete. NYC clearly has a significant issue as do a number of other hot spots in the country. But while the media is concentrated in certain hard hit areas of the country there is a massive amount of the country which is not seeing the same scope.

Of course any deaths are horrible, but the economic virus is also horrible and will also cause many deaths. Here is more math, 3.3 million new unemployment claims last week (three times greater than any other week in the history of the US). That is scary, I particularly fear the number of opioid deaths in the coming weeks as people who are out of work sit at home with nothing better to do than eat a handful of pills to make themselves feel better. They say it is easy to be a prophet, simply predict bad things will happen. So I guess I will be a prophet when opioid deaths start climbing in the coming weeks. ‘Doom and gloom’ is trending but I am not sure it serves a useful purpose; everyone already knows to stay home. I know reading the negativity in the philatelic forums certainly serves to depress folks.
Don

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larsdog

APS #220693 ATA#57179
26 Mar 2020
11:58:22pm

re: Coronavirus

"I particularly fear the number of opioid deaths in the coming weeks as people who are out of work sit at home with nothing better to do than eat a handful of pills to make themselves feel better."



That is DEFINITELY a concern as well, to be sure, along with other trends (like suicide) when people feel like hope is lost. But me predicting it won't make it happen. It happening will make it so. Income replacement and mental health provisions should definitely be included in any bailout legislation.

"But what is the asymptomatic math? No one knows in any country how many people are walking around with it and have no symptom or have had it and do not know it."



That's true. I think the best indication we have is South Korea where they tested anybody and everybody, free and on demand. Their daily increase is around 2%, so they have it under statistical control. Mortality rate in South Korea is 1.4%, and there are probably a lot of asymptomatic folks that slipped through, but I doubt the actual mortality rate is less than 1%. That's at least 10x the lethality of the seasonal flu. Italy has a mortality rate of over 10%, but they are only able to test those who are seriously ill, so the numbers are skewed. With more robust testing in the U.S. (finally), we may get a clearer, and hopefully more optimistic, picture.

"while the US is ranked 1st in reported cases (it) ranks 6th in deaths."



True, but deaths are a trailing indicator. See where China, Italy, and the US are on April 15. And factor in population size as well. Italy should be played out by then because they have a smaller population. China has by far the biggest risk of a secondary wave, and keep an eye on India. I sure hope they can do as well as South Korea and China because if it gets loose in India like it has in the U.S., it would be even more devastating.

"Dr. Deborah Birx said today that the extreme predictions about the pandemic don't line up with the incoming data and also said that 19 of all 50 states with confirmed cases have low levels of the outbreak. And the rate of new cases has showed a slower rate in the last 3 days."



I am SO THANKFUL that she is there! And yes, I agree that the "extreme predictions" are just that. But the "extreme predictions" are millions dead by April 30. I predict we can keep it under 100,000 and I HOPE we can do MUCH better than that. As far as the RATE of new cases showing a slower rate in the last 3 days, that is true, but there are two issues with that:

1. It's not a PROBLEM for the number of new confirmed cases to rise dramatically if we know it was accompanied by a massive increase in testing, which apparently has happened, so looking at a trend of just a few days can be misleading. Looking at longer trends tends to be more informative.

2. Even if you DO look at short term trends, if the difference is not statistically significant, it's meaningless. But I do understand the desire to put out at lease SOME good news!

But here is the raw data for the last 10 days. Run the data analysis yourself. I pulled these numbers from the Johns Hopkins web site every day around 5 pm CDT. The numbers are roughly doubling every three days. That is EXPLOSIVE! I think we can get that down to every 5 days in the short term, like France and Germany have. Italy has it down to every 8 days, but they have been hammered so hard they have many more recovered, so they experience more herd immunity. It's about reached its peak in Italy, but the results have been devastating. I hope we can do a better job of "flattening the curve".

US confirmed cases / deaths
3-17 6362 / 96
3-18 7769 / 122
3-19 13159 / 174
3-20 18563 / 225
3-21 25493 / 292
3-22 32644 / 401
3-23 41708 / 511
3-24 52145 / 677
3-25 65174 / 919
3-26 82404 / 1178

So yes, the percent increase of confirmed cases from 3-20 to 3-23 (125%) was less than the percent increase from 3-23 to 3-26 (98%). But BOTH of those indicate EXPLOSIVE exponential growth of doubling every three days, or less. That's just a statistical fact. The mortality rates are worse over the same period, from 127% to 131%. I don't want to scare or depress anyone, I want us to be INFORMED so that when we communicate with our elected officials, we are using FACTS, not partisan talking points.

Now, more than ever before, we need to INSIST on FACT BASED DECISIONS!

Feel free to do you own analysis on the numbers, or provide data from a more reputable source, if you can find one, and explain your rationale.

Lars




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51Studebaker

Dialysis, damned if you do...dead if you don't
27 Mar 2020
03:42:04am

re: Coronavirus

There is no value in you and I regurgitating metrics, for every negative metric you post I can post a positive one. No one cares if you or I am ‘right’.

There are two reasons I care about folks posting endless streams of negative COVID information in a hobby forum; one is public and one is personal. My public concern is that the media (including social media like this forum) already have more than enough negativity. And frankly no one should be coming into a hobby community to get their COVID information, they should be listening to their own doctors, their own local authorities, and national disease control folks. Different locations should have different levels of concern, different populations have different risks.

In terms of a personal reason, our hobby is a welcome distraction for me. And as I sit here at 3AM I am getting ready to head off to dialysis in a medical facility with 30 other ultra-high risk old people like myself. Most of these folks are on oxygen, most have diabetes, most are not ambulatory, most come from rest homes where their care is questionable. Since I am able, I help out the overwhelmed healthcare providers each day including bringing back the patients who are not ambulatory, getting them weighed, getting masks on everyone, getting their hands sanitized. You cannot help but become a ‘family’ in these kinds of healthcare facilities, our common ground is we all go through the same medical torture each day.

But the common ground here is philately so having my ‘welcome distraction’ turn into a stream of negative information sucks. All of us in the Stamporama community are already living this, each of us has our own challenges and unique situations to overcome. In my case this also includes overcoming critical lifesaving infection control supply shortages which only exists due to the fear mongering and resulting panic buying.

So I understand SCF folks posting about cancelled stamp shows or how they are dealing with shipping and mailing challenges during this trying time. But I do not see value in posting running body counts.
Don

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angore

Collector, Moderator
27 Mar 2020
07:53:27am

re: Coronavirus

If only we paid this attention to other causes of needless deaths and not let this just become another new norm.

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larsdog

APS #220693 ATA#57179
27 Mar 2020
11:05:13am

re: Coronavirus

"for every negative metric you post I can post a positive one"



Metrics aren't positive or negative. They just are. Metrics can be taken out of context or spun, and it's easy to draw conclusions from the numbers. You said:

"Additionally, while the US is ranked 1st in reported cases but ranks 6th in deaths. This speaks incredibly well for the US healthcare system and brave folks who work in it."



I pointed out that deaths is a TRAILING indicator. Check the numbers again April 15. If the pattern still holds, you can reasonably argue there is something there. That would be wonderful!

I don't WANT the numbers to be what they are, but ignoring an obvious statistical trend is unwise. When the measurements are later in the process it is very hard to bend the curve in the short term, so it's important to be patient to see the results of mitigation actions.

I'm very hopeful that new tests coming online now will bend the curve significantly, and when we flatten it, like South Korea has, that will be a GREAT DAY! The sooner the better.

As far as "body counts", I believe you were the first to post the numbers for smoking, etc. as a way of comparison. The current "body count" isn't as important as the trend, which is frightening. I take no pleasure in that. I am, in fact, COUNTING ON US to bend the curve. I would love to see a collaboration with all countries in identifying best practices where possible.

This virus is the enemy. Being informed helps some folks. Nobody is forcing anyone to visit a thread in the "Off Topic" section. There are several (most) "Off Topics" that I don't read at all.

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larsdog

APS #220693 ATA#57179
27 Mar 2020
12:19:43pm

re: Coronavirus

Just saw a bit of encouraging news (finally)!

NY Gov Cuomo showed a chart with hospitalizations rising, but they were doubling every 2.5 days at first, every 3 days in the middle, and every 4 days toward the end (current). That really is a huge change, and if they can continue to push that down to 5 or 6 days, it will be the difference between flattening the curve and an overwhelmed hospital system. I sure hope that trend continues. If you run the numbers, doubling every 3 days is 32 times the amount of doubling every 6 days over a period of 30 days.

The confirmed cases trend is less concerning right now because when you massively increase testing you are going to catch more people, but that's a good thing. We're getting a clearer picture of reality. After testing is completely rolled out then we can hopefully see a similar positive trend at the national level. It looks like numbers out of Western Europe are also trending in the right direction, for the most part.

If China can prevent a second wave, and India and Indonesia can head this off, we may start seeing the global numbers start trending better. That would be welcome news!

Keep up the social distancing and hand washing. It's worth it!

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ikeyPikey

27 Mar 2020
01:42:36pm

re: Coronavirus

'
Doubling - whether it is every 3 or 4 or 5 or 6 days - is DOUBLING.


"... NYC clearly has a significant issue as do a number of other hot spots ..."



This story about Party Zero shows how easy it is to become a hot spot, even out in what Sarah Palin memorably called "the good parts of America":

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/23/us/coronavirus-westport-connecticut-party-zero.html

"... having my ‘welcome distraction’ turn into a stream of negative information sucks ..."



SOR/SCF are my social life, partly by inclination, partly as a result of having abruptly relocated in order to perform a socially-isolating life-consuming activity (elder care). So SOR/SCF are precisely where I drop-in to chat about the virus.

Coming into a thread to complain about the thread ... why is there no cutesy-clicky icon for holding my tongue?

Cheers,

/s/ ikeyPikey

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smauggie

27 Mar 2020
03:36:11pm

re: Coronavirus

Minnesota has had four deaths so far and a mortality rate of 1% of confirmed cases. 54 are currently receiving hospital treatment. We recently converted one of our hospitals in the capital to a Covid19-only hospital with space for 50 (and 50 ventilators).

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ernieinjax

27 Mar 2020
04:47:33pm

re: Coronavirus

IkeyPikey:

Just curious, why do you feel the need to insert the Palin quote about "...good parts of the country."? Does that advance the thread? We know that people on both sides of the political spectrum often view their political opponents and their constituents with disdain. Remember the "deplorables" comment?

Did you somehow not get the memo that we as a group have decided to leave politics off the site or are you just somehow special?

I hope a wise moderator deletes this gentleman's post.

Ernie

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larsdog

APS #220693 ATA#57179
27 Mar 2020
07:33:06pm

re: Coronavirus

"Doubling - whether it is every 3 or 4 or 5 or 6 days - is DOUBLING."



Indeed, but the important point is that doubling every 3 days is 32 times the amount of doubling every 6 days over a period of 30 days. 1 patient or 32? 1,000 patients or 32,000? It makes a difference. Obviously the ultimate goal is to turn the corner and push past an exponential increase, but in the early stages small changes to the exponent make a HUGE difference over time. That was the point I was trying to make. I'd like to have the curve South Korea has and they are undoubtedly trying to flatten theirs even more.

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doodles69ca

Suzanne
27 Mar 2020
09:56:20pm

re: Coronavirus

I know I don't have to read this post, but I see it all the time. No reason to argue who is right or wrong. It is horrible and it is what it is. I hate seeing this in this group. It should be for fun and stamp stuff only. Sorry. Going stir crazy. Now I am on to the fun stuff and stamps.

Hope everyone is safe and staying home.

Hugs to all.

Suzanne

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ikeyPikey

27 Mar 2020
10:51:41pm

re: Coronavirus

"... Just curious, why do you feel the need to insert the Palin quote about "...good parts of the country."? Does that advance the thread? ..."



"We believe that the best of America is in these small towns that we get to visit, and in these wonderful little pockets of what I call the real America. Being here with all of you hard-working very patriotic, um, very, um, pro-America areas of this great nation. This is where we find the kindness and the goodness and the courage of everyday Americans."



Some of the first hotspots for the coronavirus were "gateway" cities for international visitors and, perhaps not coincidentally, "sanctuary" cities.

But the Party Zero story comes to tell us that the "wonderful little pockets of what I call the real America" are vulnerable to a single carrier attending a single non-socially-distanced event.

Understanding the nation-wide need for social distance and other flatten-the-curve measures is essential to, well, flattening the curve.

Ms Palin set that up well, even if I misquoted her a bit.

Cheers,

/s/ ikeyPikey

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/23/us/coronavirus-westport-connecticut-party-zero.html
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angore

Collector, Moderator
28 Mar 2020
06:29:06am

re: Coronavirus

Our company extended the work from home directive until 4/30. When I had to go to office to pick up something, it felt like isolation there. Essential operations do require some to work onsite. It is end of quarter (and fiscal year) so important business time.

I doubt anything in this thread has changed any dynamic related to fear or response to the virus.


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ikeyPikey

28 Mar 2020
11:40:42am

re: Coronavirus

The UPS guy delivered some household supplies, rang the door, and took off.

It being a railroad apartment, by the time I'd walked ten/+ meters to the front door, he'd walked ten/+ meters to the elevator.

But, NYC being a tipping culture, I called after him with my usual offer:

Q/ Would you like a bottle of water?

A/ No, thanks, I'm good.

Q/ How about a roll of toilet paper?

Cheers,

/s/ ikeyPikey

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larsdog

APS #220693 ATA#57179
28 Mar 2020
11:44:25am

re: Coronavirus

It's the same at our office. I think we're 85% remote now. We did a conversion last week that was 100% remote and we're doing a merge today that is 100% remote. (I'm waiting on a file to come in or I'd be working on it now). We had never tried that before. I'm pleased with how smoothly we've been able to pull it off! It's amazing what motivated people can accomplish.

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angore

Collector, Moderator
29 Mar 2020
06:15:29am

re: Coronavirus

ikeyPikey, so is it really the norm to tip UPS workers?

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stokesville

29 Mar 2020
06:46:19am

re: Coronavirus

I haven't attempted to read this entire thread because of its length but I saw an interesting message on a sign outside a local church--- "6 feet apart today is better than 6 feet under tomorrow." Although we are still to have our first case of any residents in this county it is good advice and drives the point home effectively.

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angore

Collector, Moderator
29 Mar 2020
08:05:30am

re: Coronavirus

We ventured out to the grocery store just after opening. It was not crowded and everyone was generally keeping their distance. The checkout had a shield between the checkout person and the shopper at the pin pad (payment device). As for stock, very little meat but there is a normal reason. The meat dept has never stocked the meat st store opening. As we shopped one person was slowly putting the meat out. There was bread and milk but no eggs and limited cheese products. Fresh veggies (green stuff) were gone too. Several of the store staff appeared to be filling pick up orders. No one seemed to be hoarding.

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ikeyPikey

29 Mar 2020
09:34:33am

re: Coronavirus

"... ikeyPikey, so is it really the norm to tip UPS workers? ..."



I've certainly never had one express shock, and let's say about half take the water.

Anything that gets them to bring the packages up to my door, instead of dumping them in the lobby, is a good investment ... especially Costco/Kirkland drinking water, at 7c/bottle (plus the 5c/bottle deposit).

A roll of toilet paper is a little extraordinary, but we live in extraordinary times.

Cheers,

/s/ ikeyPikey (who suspects that the tipping culture varies between the been-heres and the come-heres)
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Opa

30 Mar 2020
05:23:00am

re: Coronavirus

I went to the post office this this morning because of a registered letter I had to send to my heath care insurance and thought a good time to send some stamps that some SOR members had purchased. The lady at the counter finished the registered letter and then took the other letters. 5 went to the US and 1 to Australia. She looked at me and said I don´t think we are allowed to send anymore letters to the US. She then looked in her computer and told me letters are still going out but any packages to the US are no longer allowed, Australia is OK. So if you live in the US and are awaiting a package from Germany, I don´t know if this applies if they come from another county, there may be a long delay.

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ikeyPikey

30 Mar 2020
02:16:03pm

re: Coronavirus

'
A situation so stupid that only a smart person could work their way into it.

Astrophysicist gets magnets stuck up nose while inventing coronavirus device

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/mar/30/astrophysicist-gets-magnets-stuck-up-nose-while-inventing-coronavirus-device

A regular correspondent remarks:

"As an astrophysicist he should have been able to work remotely from home. All astrophysicists, by definition, work very remotely from the things they are studying."



Cheers,

/s/ ikeyPikey

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Snick1946

APS Life Member
30 Mar 2020
02:39:54pm

re: Coronavirus

A short rant about 'distancing'; there are sill a lot of people who don't seem to be getting the message. My only outlet these days for exercise is walking. We live in an area near a large park with wooded trails. We have decided not to try to walk there, others are just not respecting distances. People walk sometimes in groups of three or even more, side by side. I find myself having to jump off the trial to avoid colliding with them. Clueless. I still try to walk in my neighborhood and that's better but just last night two women came right up in back of me speed walking. One brushed right against me, mumbling 'excuse me'. I said something like 'Thanks for the virus'. Also clueless.

With Easter coming, I fully expect to see big family events with cars parked up and down our streets. Where we live people are currently just being asked not to do this. I'm afraid it's going to take more than nice to accomplish compliance.

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Bobstamp

30 Mar 2020
03:25:27pm

re: Coronavirus

I have decided that I might as well profit from the pandemic. Why should Amazon get all the bucks? So, I am now offering a made-in-Canada toilet paper kit for only US$20. Why not CAN$20? Because Canadian dollars are damn near worthless, compared to U.S. dollars. Anyway, here's the kit:

Image Not Found

boB

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Brechinite

Neddie Seagoon from The Telegoons
30 Mar 2020
03:44:10pm

Auctions - Approvals

re: Coronavirus

You do realise that money particularly "paper" money will carry the virus for a vast number of days.
To help and protect you from this possible source of the virus all you have to do is place your cash in a brown envelope.
Leave it out side your front door tonight,
and I shall endeavour to remove it from your premises as soon as possible thus protecting you and your family.


Rolling On The Floor LaughingRolling On The Floor LaughingRolling On The Floor Laughing

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larsdog

APS #220693 ATA#57179
30 Mar 2020
04:52:14pm

re: Coronavirus

"So, I am now offering a made-in-Canada toilet paper kit for only US$20."



Now I FINALLY understand why we're sending border guards to the Great White Northern frontier! It's YOU, isn't it Bob? You wascally wabbit!

Rolling On The Floor Laughing

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sheepshanks

30 Mar 2020
07:15:24pm

re: Coronavirus

From the BBC website today. Expensive shopping trip!

"A man has pleaded guilty to breaching coronavirus social distancing rules by repeatedly approaching people in a supermarket queue.

Steven Mackie, 53, was arrested after getting too close to shoppers outside Tesco in Stalybridge on Saturday.

He is thought to be the first person to be charged in the UK since the new restrictions came into force.

At Stockport Magistrates' Court, Mackie was fined £635 after he admitted failing to maintain public health.

Police said Mackie, of Stamford Street, Stalybridge, was "unnecessarily out of his home" and had "continued to approach people contrary to social distancing rules" despite advice from officers"

.

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BenFranklin1902

Tom in Exton, PA
31 Mar 2020
06:48:46pm

Approvals

re: Coronavirus

Crazy stuff going on out there. In a New Jersey supermarket a worker putting out groceries told a customer that he was too close to her. He told her he had Coronavirus and spit on her. He was arrested.

New Jersey schools are closed and the state (which has second highest infection rate after New York) is on lockdown. Still, police are breaking up parties! Idiots!

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Bobstamp

31 Mar 2020
07:00:04pm

re: Coronavirus

It's still early days, of course, but Susan and I and are son and daughter-in-law are hopeful that Canada will come through the cover-19 pandemic in reasonably good shape.

The latest statistics* indicate "only" 101 deaths (3 per million population), far, far less than our neighbour to the south, the U.S., with 3,788 deaths (11 per million population). Much of that success, if I dare call it that, lies with our provincial and federal governments, which have been proactive from the beginning, and with a united front of all political parties. Canadians from coast to coast are being urged to stay at home except for necessary trips for groceries, pharmaceuticals, and emergency medical visits, and "mental health" walks outdoors.

The great majority of people are paying close attention to social distancing, going so far as stepping off sidewalks and trails in Stanley Park to avoid close contact. Most businesses, including many restaurants, are closed, as well as churches, libraries, coffee shops, massage parlours, and pubs. I think the government liquor stores are still open. I hope! Grocery stores have instituted seniors-only shopping hours, and are maintaining quite strict social distancing policies.

Much of the credit for our relatively low death rate must go to our provincial health officer, Dr. Bonnie Henry, who presents a daily status update. She couldn't have a more calming, rational voice. She is also able to present bad news without resorting to sensationalism. During one of her early updates, she got quite emotional as she reported the deaths of two residents of an elder care home. Her tears certainly weren't faked.

Bob

* The worldometers.com web site provides constantly updated information about the pandemic.

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larsdog

APS #220693 ATA#57179
31 Mar 2020
10:30:50pm

re: Coronavirus

"The latest statistics* indicate "only" 101 deaths (3 per million population), far, far less than our neighbour to the south, the U.S., with 3,788 deaths (11 per million population)."



Bob, I don't think that stat is very meaningful. Your death toll is doubling every 4 days, so you will be at 11 per million in a week. The U.S. just got a head start on you. Officially by 4 days.

The numbers out of Canada where I see a lot of promise are the Total Cases numbers. You went from doubling every 3 days (3-22 to 3-25) to every 5 days (3-25 to 3-30). The U.S. also went down from every 3 days (3-22 to 3-25) to every 5 days (3-26 to 3-31). You can even see the curves bending down in the logarithmic scale. (I used worldometer for all numbers and charts for this purpose since you mentioned it).

As I indicated earlier, going from doubling every 3 days to every 6 days is a 32-fold difference over a period of only 30 days. Massive flattening of the curve! Canada is "only" a week or ten days ahead of the U.S. (per capita) in flattening the curve, but the impact will be dramatic. We all need to keep up social distancing and insisting on more and more testing, but make no mistake. The U.S. and Canada are still BOTH on upward exponential trajectories. Flattening the curve just lowers the height of the peak and pushes the date out, but absent a vaccine - which is practically impossible for widespread use in the next 6 months - this virus has to play out unless testing can get out in front of the virus. They did it in China and South Korea. It looks like Germany may be getting there, too. Can Canada be next? I hope so!!!

Lars

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ikeyPikey

31 Mar 2020
11:32:00pm

re: Coronavirus

'
Restrictions Are Slowing Coronavirus Infections, New Data Suggest

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/30/health/coronavirus-restrictions-fevers.html

https://healthweather.us/ ... the fever map and, at the bottom of the page, some excellent blog posts

Cheers,

/s/ ikeyPikey

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keesindy

01 Apr 2020
02:35:06pm

re: Coronavirus

The reporters' questions in the daily pandemic briefings indicate they don't have a clue when it comes to models and modeling. They and much of the public go bonkers when the best case modeling scenario for US deaths from the virus are 100,000 to 240,000. The reporters don't understand it is just a model. It is just a forecast; not a fact.

Think about our daily weather forecasts. They are based on models that are updated multiple times each day. How accurate are our weather forecasts, especially 5 to 8 days out? And these models have had years of refinements built into them!

Think about our US weather forecasters during hurricane season. Multiple models are now available for news stations to use during their broadcasts. It has become common practice to show on TV several different model results in a single graphic for a new hurricane that is still out over the Atlantic Ocean. Each model produces a line from the current hurricane location to a point several days into the future. Note the variations in those tracks for a single hurricane on a given day. They're usually literally all over the map. However, as the days pass and more and more data are gathered and entered into the models, the various models begin to produce similar tracks. Data matters. The variations in the designs of the models become less important than the data.

The modeling that is being used to predict the outcome of our virus is relatively new and has limitations. Those limitations will always affect the results that the model spits out. However, over time, more and more data will help minimize the effects of the model's limitations and provide improved results.

So don't put too much weight on modeling-generated numbers. In fact, Drs. Fauci and Birx said they expected to be able to "push down" the best case death numbers for the US that their model is producing. They didn't make that very clear, but what they're saying is that new data today and tomorrow and in the following days is expected to produce new modeling results that show the "best case" scenario to be much better than is the case being presented by the model today. They're optimistic, but the media generally didn't pick up on that.

Tom


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angore

Collector, Moderator
01 Apr 2020
04:31:03pm

re: Coronavirus

I think many know what modeling means.

They run with information provided so somewhat nature of the beast. Trend speculation is popular by a lot of people. Like in a hurricane forecast, the news starts speculating on worst case scenarios even when days away as if it will come true.

But, those that expect the worst are more likely prepared for the worst. One can rationalize it away by claiming it is imperfect information.


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ikeyPikey

01 Apr 2020
07:21:26pm

re: Coronavirus

I'll agree that reporters, like most everyone else in this world, have only the slightest grasp of modelling.

However, I'll quibble with your analogy.

Weather is, in its behavior, pretty much a chaotic system. Physical limitations on that chaotic behavior mean that short-term forecasts can be very good; The Weather Channel website offers hour-by-hour forecasts, for example, that are often spot-on. But the longer-term forecasts burn-off like the morning mist on a sunny day.

Sure, the earth's spin is steady, and its exposure to sunlight is rhythmic. But the atmosphere is a swirling soup - a very large swirling soup - so predicting what's gonna be at any single point is like guessing which grain of sand from the beach is gonna hit you in the eye when the wave crashes over your head.

Epidemics are, by comparison, almost deterministic. You can look back, and see how many infectees infect someone new and, if the population's behavior does not change, the math is easy & reliable.

The problem, of course, is that people react, and adapt ... so predicting the course of an epidemic is like predicting the local weather for Gotterdammerung, Mississippi, when that town is all over the map.

Cheers,

/s/ ikeyPikey

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P!ease ask by private message if you wish my home address.

01 Apr 2020
08:17:40pm

re: Coronavirus

I have been self isolating now for 17 days. Other than a trip to the mailbox, I haven't ventured outside my garden. I've used the time to tidy the garage, catch up with correspondence, finally complete my Machin collection and begin work on an American collection. If I get tired of those things I catch up on Game of Thrones, Homeland, and House of Cards. These last few days I've been phoned by old friends whom I hadn't spoken to since retiring over 2 years ago and I've followed their lead and phoned some others too.

It looks like we are about to be confined for at least another 12 weeks. While in the garden we've been chatting, strictly 2 metres apart, to our neighbours. Large shopping orders have been delivered by the store, and our local community is making deliveries from the village shop.

Having observed this thread from the beginning and those who have continually indulged in blaming media, politicians, medics, etc. I just want all of you to know that life in lockdown is not too bad. We are managing just fine, planning the next 3 months, and reconnecting with old friends. What scares me more than anything though is this. If either myself or my lovely wife catch coronavirus and are taken to hospital, the last time we may see each other would probably be as the ambulance takes us away from home. Not only that, if I, or any of my 4 brothers and 1 sister succumbed to it, no more than 2 family members can attend the graveside. You can forget about a wake.

Coronavirus is real and not going away for some time. I watch and listen to news reports throughout the day and by evening I have heard everything 10 or more times. I then switch on my computer and check Stamporama forums. I am amazed at the continual sniping by adults on a stamp website about a DEADLY serious subject. Instead of multiple contributions here, pick up your tweezers again. You might actually enjoy it.


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larsdog

APS #220693 ATA#57179
02 Apr 2020
12:02:05am

re: Coronavirus

Gudgie,

I just finished Black Sails tonight and Game of Thrones starts tomorrow!

I agreed with your post (especially the part about being separated - perhaps forever - in case of hospitalization - terrifying!) except the last paragraph. There are two points I would make:

1. I don't watch the news but once or twice a day. I never have. So I'm not burned out by the time I check in here.

2. I don't use social media or post to online news threads. I rarely look at the "Off Topic" threads here at all. But if I see factually wrong information, I'm going to call it out. Whether someone claims a stamp is authentic when it's obviously a fake, or someone says the corona virus is a hoax, I sometimes chose not to ignore it. Especially when skeptics are putting my life, and the lives of my loved ones, at risk through ignorant, irresponsible behavior and messaging. Exposing misinformation in a forum like this is more likely to have a positive effect than a random rant. Even if I don't agree with a post someone else makes here, if they are a philatelist, they are, by definition, an analytical thinker and I tend to give more consideration to what they say. Hopefully that's a two-way street.

Lars


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angore

Collector, Moderator
02 Apr 2020
07:22:57am

re: Coronavirus

ikeypikey,

I agree my analogy does not fit the virus projections but just noting how people (media and individuals) handle scientific information. The horoscopes published daily do not mention it!? There was a good meme on that.

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Brechinite

Neddie Seagoon from The Telegoons
02 Apr 2020
09:17:36am

Auctions - Approvals

re: Coronavirus

Jings!...Crivvens!...Help Ma Boab!

I don't give a hoot about statistics, cos there are lies, damned lies and statistics.

Whether you are a half full or half empty person doesn't matter.

Numbers, trends, sets, projections etc etc can be juggled any way you like. (I've done this in the past)

My interpretation of the numbers is this:-

Stay away from everybody, stay at home, don't let any one into your house or within two metres of you and pray to your God that you and yours come out of this alive.




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ikeyPikey

02 Apr 2020
10:31:11am

re: Coronavirus

Image Not Found

Lookin' for this one, Al ?

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d1stamper

02 Apr 2020
11:13:58am

Auctions

re: Coronavirus

Well stated;

"Stay away from everybody, stay at home, don't let any one into your house or within two metres of you and pray to your God that you and yours come out of this alive."



Doug
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angore

Collector, Moderator
02 Apr 2020
11:21:49am

re: Coronavirus

Yep.

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BrightonPete

02 Apr 2020
11:43:19am

re: Coronavirus

And just now I receive a text from landlady. She is putting the place up for sale now. Video to be taken Tuesday. What a time to sell!

What a time to be looking for another place!

Why? That's all I can ask!

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ernieinjax

02 Apr 2020
12:34:28pm

re: Coronavirus

BrightonPete, that is horrible. So sorry to hear that. I hope you find a great place with as few hassles as possible.

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angore

Collector, Moderator
02 Apr 2020
03:05:50pm

re: Coronavirus

Why sell now?????

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BrightonPete

02 Apr 2020
03:25:08pm

re: Coronavirus

No job so maybe she can't pay mortgage. Tenants in other apartment were a bother that she doesn't want to have to deal with again. They abandoned it on Monday. At least they cleaned up the place.

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ikeyPikey

02 Apr 2020
03:33:10pm

re: Coronavirus

'
Trivia Question: What did they call it before they called it "social distancing" ?

Perhaps some of you doc-watching history-reading folks will know the answer.

My oldest suggests that perhaps it fell under "hygiene".

Cheers,

/s/ ikeyPikey

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Neddie Seagoon from The Telegoons
02 Apr 2020
03:37:03pm

Auctions - Approvals

re: Coronavirus

Jings!...Crivvens!...Help Ma Boab!

Social Distancing?

Naw!

GET TAE!!

(normally followed by an expletive)

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larsdog

APS #220693 ATA#57179
02 Apr 2020
04:46:45pm

re: Coronavirus

"Whether you are a half full or half empty person doesn't matter."



I'm neither. The curse of an engineering background. The glass is neither half full nor half empty. It is, quite simply, too big for it's current use. Laughing

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larsdog

APS #220693 ATA#57179
02 Apr 2020
04:48:09pm

re: Coronavirus

Sorry to hear about that Brighton Pete!

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Gudgie

P!ease ask by private message if you wish my home address.

02 Apr 2020
07:17:43pm

re: Coronavirus

So after another day confined to home, trying to buy paint for 2 bedrooms my wife wants to decorate. I spent another 2 hours phoning old friends and family, then began sorting French stamps. I turned on Stamporama and after checking auctions and approvals for 4 countries I came on to this forum.

I hadn't expected my contribution would stop those who argue about stuff which only they can find to argue about, but I was pleased 7 people took the time to read my letter and press the like button. I wasn't looking for endorsement, I was simply saying those people who sit on here looking for subjects to disagree with, or correct the writer actually bore the pants of the majority of the rest of us.

I must say I was surprised by the response from larsdog. First he says how much he agreed with most of what I had written, but he disagreed with the last paragraph. He goes on to talk about how he does not watch news,nor does he participate in social media. ?????

Where is the criticism? For his benefit I will restate what I said in my final paragraph. Since I'm typing this on a kindle I am unable to cut and paste, so I will simply repeat as I remembered it.

I said Coronavirus is real and will be with us for some time.

I said I watch news throughout the day, hearing each report around 10 times, before I switch on my computer and log on to the Stamporama website.

I said I am irritated by people who treat this subject as a forum for sniping at others when it is of major concern to myself and many others.

Finally I suggested those who profess to know all about Coronavirus should lay of the vitriol and indulge in the hobby we all joined this site to promote.

The first sentence is 100% factual. Sentences 2 and 3 express honestly how I feel and spend my day. Neither he nor anyone else can disagree with those sentences.

The last sentence expressed a wish for those who argue here to go easy and use this site more responsibly. Perhaps Larsdog could enlighten myself and others if he disagreed with that sentence, and if so, what does he disagree with? He may have a different opinion from me or others, but don't treat me or this site as a football. Respect others. If you do, you may get some more respect when you express an opinion.

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ernieinjax

02 Apr 2020
07:51:34pm

re: Coronavirus

vir·tue sig·nal·ing

noun

the action or practice of publicly expressing opinions or sentiments intended to demonstrate one's good character or the moral correctness of one's position on a particular issue.


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larsdog

APS #220693 ATA#57179
02 Apr 2020
10:37:41pm

re: Coronavirus

"Perhaps Larsdog could enlighten myself"



OK

"He goes on to talk about how he does not watch news"



I didn't say that. I said:

"I don't watch the news but once or twice a day. I never have. So I'm not burned out by the time I check in here."



Even with all that's going on, I try to limit myself to one or two news broadcasts per day. The point being, when you said:

"I watch and listen to news reports throughout the day and by evening I have heard everything 10 or more times."



I can't say I agree with that for me personally. Perhaps I should have said "that doesn't apply to me" instead of "I agreed with your post ... except the last paragraph."

Regardless, the main point is this: This is an "Off Topic" forum. By definition, it's not generally related to philately (although there are a few comments relevant to philately). For those of us who haven't been saturated with news such that we have "heard everything 10 or more times", we may visit here first, or maybe last, after visiting some philatelic forums and after using our tweezers many times to boot.

Nobody is required to read this thread. I agreed with your post except that the people that do post here don't need a lecture from you. I tried to say that in a more polite way.

You did, however, add a couple of extra points in your restatement:

"I said I am irritated by people who treat this subject as a forum for sniping at others when it is of major concern to myself and many others."



It's of major concern to everyone, not just you. There is precious little we can do, but we can challenge false statements and voice our opinions, especially to our elected officials. If you think that is "sniping", you definitely misread the intent at the very least.

Then you added this zinger:

"Finally I suggested those who profess to know all about Coronavirus should lay of the vitriol and indulge in the hobby we all joined this site to promote."



First of all, I would wager that Dr. Fauci would claim there is more he doesn't know than he does know about SARS-Cov-2, so I don't know who you were referring to. I am almost entirely ignorant myself. What I do know how to do is read an exponential growth curve. There are many processes that follow an exponential curve. This is one of them. The data being reported did NOT match the rhetoric being expressed ("it's under control"). I don't see the problem with calling that out. Now the government is giving a more honest assessment of the situation. I hope they are presenting a worst-case range, because even the low end of what they are saying now is beyond what I had imagined. I'm hopeful that additional testing and mitigation factors will lower the toll. I, too, have family members at-risk. If people are honest about the risks and behave accordingly, perhaps neither of us will face that terrifying scenario you described. I certainly hope so!

One thing that I am seeing in the numbers is that the curve is bending down (when looking at the log scale). Infections are still growing, but the rate is slowing a bit, and that is great news! Hopefully we are having a significant impact on flattening the curve. I looked at Canada's curve of couple of days ago and saw the same trend. I know that doesn't PROVE anything, but it is a reason to hope.

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ikeyPikey

03 Apr 2020
10:46:03am

re: Coronavirus

Color me confused.

If everyone is dying to get out of the house, and donating blood is an acceptable excuse, and elective surgeries are canx'd, why aren't the blood banks full?

After all, the 'permanent' donor centers are accustomed to sterile technique, so it is a lot safer faux-necessity errand than the grocery store.

Further, the NYBC has fiddled their online appointment system to half capacity or less (thus achieving social distancing within), and they are checking temperatures & symptoms outside the door, so what's the problem?

Cheers,

/s/ ikeyPikey

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Neddie Seagoon from The Telegoons
03 Apr 2020
12:05:05pm

Auctions - Approvals

re: Coronavirus

"Color me confused."



Your not the only one.

My mother in law is 86. She is part of the group that has been advised to self isolate for 13 weeks. No family visits, no going out even for exercise.

Yet!

She has to go to the doctors for part of her normal treatment of her ongoing ailments.

She has to get a bus there and back.

Self isolation except when it suits Big Brother!!


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nigelc

03 Apr 2020
12:44:57pm

re: Coronavirus

"If everyone is dying to get out of the house, and donating blood is an acceptable excuse, and elective surgeries are canx'd, why aren't the blood banks full?"


It's a fair question.

The permitted shelf life of both whole blood and red blood cells is relatively short (up to 35 and 42 days) so regular new donations are required even if the level of demand falls in the short term.

I guess that many regular donors may be deterred from donating in the current circumstances.

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larsdog

APS #220693 ATA#57179
03 Apr 2020
11:17:33pm

re: Coronavirus

It is also possible that there is a desire to get a large number of donations to see if plasma from previously exposed patients (with antibodies in their blood) might help those most critical. As frantic as everything is right now, I can understand why they wouldn't want to explicitly say that since many donors would want to know what the tests said about their donation, and worse, some may misrepresent their past with AIDS or hepatitus in hopes of getting a back door diagnosis. Just a thought.

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ikeyPikey

03 Apr 2020
11:21:24pm

re: Coronavirus

'
I've become accustomed to thinking cynically about the blood banks.

If I was selling the stuff for the prices they get, I'd also be begging for more.

In a large country like the USA, blood banks with a better, uh, flow can sell the stuff to any hospital or clinic that needs blood or blood products, whether it is in another state or, for that matter, another country.

So it was only when the US Surgeon General recently called for donations that I chose to believe that stocks might really be low, and to heed the call.

I only donated once in 2019, if memory serves, but donated at least 4x in 2018, so it was 'time' and, as I said above, a legit reason to bolt the house.

Back in the 1950s, my mother took me along when she donated blood each year - the American Red Cross would set up in the basement of our building - I was very little, perhaps three or four years old - and I began taking my kids along when I donated blood - from when they were perhaps three of four years old - and the latter tell me that watching their parent get stuck with a needle and blood flowing into a bag makes quite an impression - and I just nod knowingly & agree that, yes, it does.

It was a proud moment for me when the subject came-up one night, and I heard two grown daughters discussing the various places to donate around town, agreeing that the very old lady in the blood mobile right in front of the department store in the center of town had a magical (painless) touch. Next time, I sought her out - and they were right.

Cheers,

/s/ ikeyPikey

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Bobstamp

04 Apr 2020
06:59:22pm

re: Coronavirus

Please correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't the rate of deaths from Covid-19 serve as a reasonable measurement of the disease's impact on specific populations? Assuming the numbers we're getting are reasonably accurate?

My wife and I have noted that that as of April 3, six deaths per million have occurred in Canada, whereas a great many other countries have far higher death rates. The death rate in the U.S. was more than four times higher (25/million), Luxembourg more than eight times higher (50 per million), and Belgium the highest at 111 deaths per million, more than 18 times higher than Canada. (These numbers come from Worldometers.info.

It seems that we are benefitting from the timely and reasonable responses of both the federal and provincial governments, who all seem to be working from the same page. Of course, there is the disturbing news that Wuhan has been locked down again after people who had supposedly recovered from the disease are once again showing symptoms. It's also troubling that we really have no idea how many people are currently ill, how many "super spreaders" there are, and how significant aerosols are in spreading the disease are. If the aerosols are a problem, there are few ways that we can protect ourselves other than complete, airtight isolation. For now, we are staying as far away from people as possible, avoiding elevators, and washing hands constantly. We were able to have some items delivered by our pharmacy, but groceries and booze have been a challenge.

One of the best things: Every night at 7:00, people in our densely populated neighbourhood of mid- and high-rises come out on their balconies to bang drums, clap, blow horns, cheer, play musical instruments, and clap in support of health care workers. It's almost deafening, but in a good way. And I'd say about 98 percent of people are paying close attention to social distancing. Those who don't? Perhaps they are helping to clean the gene pool! Or they are immune to the disease, like Trump seems to be. If he doesn't want to wear a mask, perhaps he could send his to Canada rather than prohibiting the export of masks to Canada. Speaking of which, we learned today that much of the material that's used to make masks comes from Canada.

Bob

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larsdog

APS #220693 ATA#57179
05 Apr 2020
01:56:04am

re: Coronavirus

"Please correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't the rate of deaths from Covid-19 serve as a reasonable measurement of the disease's impact on specific populations? Assuming the numbers we're getting are reasonably accurate? "



Yes, indeed! But there are three things to consider:

1. Death rate is a TRAILING indicator - someone may be placed on a vent DAYS after being hospitalized and not die until WEEKS later - after waiting for DAYS or WEEKS to even be tested. So, yes, death rate is probably the most accurate measure, but it tells you more about where you've been versus where you are going.

2. Amazingly, not all death rates are equal. Apparently, there are some jurisdictions that ONLY consider COVID-19 deaths as reportable if they happened in a hospital, instead of a nursing home, etc.

3. The starting point varies by country. If you compare Canada to the U.S., the numbers look good. But according to worldometers.info, there isn't that much difference. Canada was at 6 deaths per million on April 4. The U.S. was at 5 deaths per million 8 days ago and the U.S. outbreak started sooner. Absolute values per million are rather meaningless when we are still climbing the curve and we started at different times. Once we flatten the curve in the U.S. and Canada (and elsewhere), we can reasonably compare ourselves to Singapore and South Korea.

So given the above, the death rate for a particular country or jurisdiction is likely most useful in analyzing the current trend in that country or jurisdiction, but lagging by several weeks from any policy changes. Comparing your country with other countries before hitting your peak is probably not very informative.

Canada is more sparsely populated than the U.S., so you would assume a bit slower spread. Canada also had its first documented case after the U.S., so we can assume Canada is at an earlier part of the curve.

Using worldometers.info, just look at the graphs for cases and deaths for Canada and draw your own conclusions. Then look at the same charts for the U.S. and see how much difference you see. Now look at South Korea. That's where we need to get to.

When I look at the infection curves for Canada and the U.S., I see Canada doing it better, but we are both on an exponential growth curve that is scary. And, yes, I consider the infection data to be even MORE suspect than the death data, but you can only work with what you have. I was just pleased that the U.S. gov't FINALLY made a statement that was consistent with the data many of us have observed for weeks. I hope your government did a better job than ours in being honest about the trends.

Europe should be peaking soon. U.S. probably mid-April. Canada around May 1?. After that, keep an eye on India and Africa, plus a resurgence in China.

We are all just trying to minimize the damage until we can get a vaccine - but that's several months away. (Normally, that would be 12-18 months, but given the severity of COVID-19, I would not be surprised to see a vaccine - at least for "at risk" folks - by October).

I personally believe that social distancing is having a PROFOUND effect not only in Canada, but in the U.S. as well. We are just as appalled as you are by the images of kids on the beach in Florida, but that's really the exception here. I've been working from home for a month and had to drive in to the office yesterday because my FTP speed was too slow. There were only two people there (normally 100+). Management is ON IT because they REALLY don't want us to interact right now, so I expect a fix to the FTP speed problem ASAP.

Bottom line: Looking at the numbers from Canada, I think you have good reason to be cautiously optimistic, and social distancing is working, but we ALL need to press for on-demand testing. Yesterday!!!
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Neddie Seagoon from The Telegoons
05 Apr 2020
06:52:19am

Auctions - Approvals

re: Coronavirus

Testing Numbers.

How many per day?

UK is aiming for 100,000 per day.

Population of UK 60 million, Therefore No of days required = 600

These figures are rough, many factors need to be taken into account, as accuracy? what? where? when? who? why? how?

I do not have the solutions so I do not expect my Government to have the best solution as how long is a piece of string?

Once the lockdown is complete millions of people who have stayed safe and isolated themselves will be released on the streets. They will then be open to the virus and you will get another spike in cases and another lockdown.

I said before "Just pray to your God that you and yours are alive at the end of this"




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nigelc

05 Apr 2020
07:16:06am

re: Coronavirus

"UK is aiming for 100,000 per day.

Population of UK 60 million, Therefore No of days required = 600"


Yes, these figures put the challenge in perspective.

Remember too that government is reporting the number of tests performed rather than the number of individual patients tested and many patients require multiple tests over time.


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ikeyPikey

05 Apr 2020
12:17:58pm

re: Coronavirus

"UK is aiming for 100,000 per day.

Population of UK 60 million, Therefore No of days required = 600"



The testing rate/capability is human behavior and, therefor, also a moving target.

Sample collection will change, processing will change, results will be faster, etc.

The immediate goals are to test the symptomatic, and the exposed (health care workers, etc), and door-to-door in critical neighborhoods.

The intermediate goal is targeted testing, eg, clearing employees returning to work at specific workplaces, and contact tracing (once things get down to the level that contact tracing becomes relevant again), etc.

Testing every single person, period, is a more distant goal.

Cheers,

/s/ ikeyPikey

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ikeyPikey

05 Apr 2020
05:25:36pm

re: Coronavirus

'
Nice stories from people who are helping:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/04/opinion/sunday/coronavirus-america.html

Cheers,

/s/ ikeyPikey

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Neddie Seagoon from The Telegoons
05 Apr 2020
06:39:58pm

Auctions - Approvals

re: Coronavirus

News just in:-

The British Prime Minister, Boris Johnson, admitted to hospital with covid-19.

He has been in quarantine for 10 days but his temperature is still high so his doctors have him in hospital for tests.


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angore

Collector, Moderator
06 Apr 2020
07:28:56am

re: Coronavirus

We went for a drive Sunday around 12pm (had to go to post office to pick up something from letter box) so took the opportunity to see what was open.

The most interesting discovery was the golf course (essential business?) was extremely busy with the greens full of golfers and the parking lot full. This was on Palm Sunday around noon. It was a near perfect day.

I feel sorry for other businesses that were not allowed to be open (unless carry out) such as arts and crafts and electronics stores given Walmart selling similar items. If Hobby Lobby had a grocery section they would be open except on Sundays! Many of those let go no longer have employer provided health insurance so having to pay extra for COBRA if they can afford it. This is the economic impact to be felt soon.


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Harvey

I think, therefore I am - I think!

06 Apr 2020
08:46:17am

re: Coronavirus

I'm amazed the golf course was open and packed. In my area of Nova Scotia there are fines of up to $1000 if you refuse to social distance. At first there were warnings, now several fines have been handed out and cars have been seized if you are parked in parks that are all officially closed. I admit I go for a drive occasionally to get out of the house but visiting friends is out. A friend I sometimes visit for supper delivered a roast beef meal last night and left it on the front seat of my car. We have to take this seriously or it may take a very long time, and many deaths, before it goes away!!!

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ikeyPikey

06 Apr 2020
10:28:35am

re: Coronavirus

'
Social Distancing Failure at the Bronx Zoo

Q/ Were we not always social distancing from tigers ?

https://www.ynetnews.com/article/rJqR11Uuv8

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/06/nyregion/bronx-zoo-tiger-coronavirus.html

Cheers,

/s/ ikeyPikey

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Neddie Seagoon from The Telegoons
06 Apr 2020
11:30:58am

Auctions - Approvals

re: Coronavirus

The Scottish Chief Medical Officer had to resign last night.

She was caught travelling to her second home with her family, twice.

She was the one telling us to stay at home!!!

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larsdog

APS #220693 ATA#57179
06 Apr 2020
01:29:53pm

re: Coronavirus

Our golf course is open to members only. We don't check in and members play free, so there is no human interaction. Only one person per cart, except family members can be in same cart. We are expected to maintain social distancing, and I'd say at least 90% do - like at the grocery. (I live on the course, so I see a lot of golfers go by daily). The one rule change is that you have to leave the flag in. They don't want anyone touching the flag pole. They put a pool noodle in the hole so your ball is only 1/2" lower than the green so it's easy to retrieve without touching anything else. It's probably less risky than pumping gas and a great way to get some fresh air and exercise!

I played 9 holes Friday. It was easier to maintain proper distance on the golf course than it is in the grocery store. I even have a set of rules for COVID-19 golf:

1. The flagstick counts as a person. Social distancing guidelines specify that if your ball is within 6 feet of the hole, it's a gimme, as long as you hold your breath retrieving it. No more putts of under 6 feet!

2. There is a 6 foot radius where you can relocate your ball, as long as it's no closer to the hole. That can help with bunkers and creeks.

3. One should never be "out of bounds" during the quarantine! That's like the kids on spring break in Florida. Since we can't BE out of bounds, we never WENT out of bounds, so any shot that goes OOB no longer exists. Automatic Mulligan.

I may break 90 yet!

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Harvey

I think, therefore I am - I think!

06 Apr 2020
02:10:42pm

re: Coronavirus

In my humble opinion all parks, golf courses, beaches, etc. should be closed. But I'm not a golfer!

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ernieinjax

06 Apr 2020
03:42:37pm

re: Coronavirus

To all of our "friends across the pond", I just watched the Queen's speech. I have to admit, I was inspired. I'm a fan! She's tough. "Britons never, never shall be slaves."

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FJP95WKJQjg&t=192s

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mbo1142

I thought I was wrong once, but I was mistaken.
06 Apr 2020
10:24:05pm

Approvals

re: Coronavirus

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larsdog

APS #220693 ATA#57179
06 Apr 2020
11:13:24pm

re: Coronavirus

"In my humble opinion all parks, golf courses, beaches, etc. should be closed. But I'm not a golfer!"



I my humble opinion, I think it depends on how it's done and whether the rules are followed. I have no problem with enforcement of social distancing. If there are a few bad actors, issue fines. If there is widespread disregard, shut it down. Tennis courts and golf courses offer a unique opportunity to get some fresh air and exercise, and still maintain proper distancing. As long as person to person contact is eliminated (i.e., you don't have to physically check in), I don't see the harm. My son and I played 9 holes tonight and never got within 10 feet of anyone else.

Our golf course only allows members with their own carts to play now. No guests. No rentals. And only family members can ride together in a cart. They even have a rule to keep the flag in the hole so nobody touches the flag stick.

Parks and beaches have the problem of maintaining social distancing. That's easy on a golf course and tennis court. Very difficult on a beach or in a park. I understand some folks want to use the walking trails, but unless there is a mechanism to prevent a faster walker overtaking a slower walker, I'm not sure how that would work.

I do agree, however, if distancing rules are routinely ignored, the golf course or tennis court should be shut down.

Lars

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philatelia

APS #156650
07 Apr 2020
09:40:28am

re: Coronavirus

I haven't read one single post anywhere asking this question: If we are fighting a WAR on Covid-19, doesn't that make all of us the soldiers on the front lines? So shouldn't we all be in bootcamp getting ready to fight? Why don't we do everything we can to make ourselves TOUGHER AND STRONGER to fight this.

First - Let's strive to eliminate lung irritants from our homes - smoke, strong chemical smells, vaping, fragrance defusers, anything that emits fumes, dust. Did you know that perfumes can trigger asthma attacks?

Second - Let's strengthen our lungs with some aerobic exercise appropriate to our age, health and level of fitness and practice abdominal breathing.

Third - Diabetes is a risk factor - let's try to eat healthier.

Fourth - High blood pressure is also a danger. Let's try to watch our sodium intake and work to improve our cardiovascular health.

Fifth - LET’S DO EVERYTHING WE CAN TO PREVENT THE SPREAD OF THIS DISEASE! STAY HOME! WASH YOUR HANDS!

LET’S KICK SOME VIRAL ASS!


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Bobstamp

07 Apr 2020
03:03:00pm

re: Coronavirus

A non-religious Amen, Philatelia! My wife and I are trying to stay healthy. She teaches fitness four times a week, or did before Covid-19. I'm more of a couch potato, partly because of rheumatoid arthritis and osteoarthritis, both of which can make exercise an ordeal. But I try to "eat right" because of high blood pressure. I do have a hard time avoiding alcohol, especially these days. Anyhow...

I have to say that one of the best "health" decisions my wife and I made together after we married was to emigrate to Canada. We are still American citizens — it's very expensive and time consuming to end U.S. citizenship, and frankly I don't trust the American government to continue my Vietnam Nam War disability pension if I were to drop my American citizenship. We moved first to Ontario, and then a couple of years later, in 1971, I asked for a transferred to British Columbia. In light of the Covid-19 pandemic, it seems we couldn't have made a better choice.

Yesterday, the Canadian Broadcasting Corp. published an article explaining why BC has done so much better than other provinces, notably Ontario and Quebec, and better than most countries, in dealing with the coronavirus. See Why B.C. is flattening the COVID-19 curve while numbers in central Canada surge. Dr. Bonnie Henry, our Provincial Health Officer, deserves our respect for her intelligent, humane response to the Covid-19 crisis. The video link in the story says much about her professionalism and personality.

This news just came in: Vancouver has closed Stanley Park, the southern border of which is just half a block from our apartment, to vehicular traffic. Why? Because, despite BC's relatively strong response to Covid-19, and despite the fact that parking lots have been closed for a week, some people have been parking illegally so they can walk on the Seawall Promenade that circles the park. Susan and I have avoided walking there because too many people — ignorant jerks! — were ignoring social-distancing guidelines. Maybe now we can start walking there again!

Bob

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ikeyPikey

07 Apr 2020
05:58:36pm

re: Coronavirus

'
Staggering Surge Of NYers Dying In Their Homes Suggests City Is Undercounting Coronavirus Fatalities

Curve Watchers Beware: not everything is in the curve.

Perhaps the governor will order blood samples to be collected from every corpse, so's we can, at least, sort it out at our leisure.

Cheers,

/s/ ikeyPikey

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Linus

07 Apr 2020
09:58:02pm

re: Coronavirus

The singing mailman from Chicago, John Prine, has just passed away due to the Covid-19 virus. He was one of my favorite singer/songwriters for most of my adult life. I saw him in concert at the Des Moines Civic Center with Steve Goodman many years ago. His music will live on, may he rest in peace.

Linus

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angore

Collector, Moderator
08 Apr 2020
06:22:48am

re: Coronavirus

My roommate in college liked John Prine. He had an interesting style.

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Brechinite

Neddie Seagoon from The Telegoons
08 Apr 2020
11:56:13am

Auctions - Approvals

re: Coronavirus

While out for our daily exercise, a walk in the park, allowed by Her Britannic Majesty's Government during this emergency we could hear a wood pecker rat-a-tat-tatting away in the distance.
A few moments later we managed to spot him on a tree hammering away. It was the first time we had been able to locate him.

Isn't nature wonderful.

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philatelia

APS #156650
08 Apr 2020
12:05:43pm

re: Coronavirus

This thread is really looooooooooooong. It takes forever to scroll down to new posts. Hardworking moderators - do you think it might be time to start another thread? Just a little suggestion. Thanks

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Harvey

I think, therefore I am - I think!

08 Apr 2020
12:09:37pm

re: Coronavirus

The thread is long and takes a few seconds to load but for me it always seems to go to the last of what I have already read. I suppose if you were checking it out for the first time it would take a while to get to the end.

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ikeyPikey

08 Apr 2020
12:33:20pm

re: Coronavirus

"... It takes forever to scroll down to new posts ..."



Clearly, you should visit more often, so that your last-visited point is further along.

Hallmark just gave away two million greeting cards ... brilliant !

https://greetings.hallmark.com/careenough/

Cheers,

/s/ ikeyPikey
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larsdog

APS #220693 ATA#57179
08 Apr 2020
12:37:16pm

re: Coronavirus

"Curve Watchers Beware: not everything is in the curve.

Perhaps the governor will order blood samples to be collected from every corpse, so's we can, at least, sort it out at our leisure."



Ikey Pikey,

You make a good point, but I don't think we would need to do blood tests at all. How may people died at home of non-COVID-19 issues because they were afraid to go to the hospital, where they could have been saved? Would that not be a COVID-19 related death? What about someone who commits suicide because of layoffs? Shouldn't that count as part of the cost of this terrible virus? If you subtract the expected number of deaths from the actual total for 2020, I think that may be the best measure you can get of the TRUE cost of SARS-Cov-2 (COVID-19).

I don't just watch the curve for a measure of the cost of the virus, but hoping to see some flattening and then a downturn in new cases so we know the peak has past. It will still take a while to clear the backlog in the hospitals, but then we may be able to slowly ease some of the restrictions we put in place to flatten the curve. There has been rather dramatic flattening of the curve for the US and Canada. Canada did it sooner, so they are likely to take a smaller hit per capita.

I fear we will be forced to maintain SOME level of flattening until a vaccine is widely available.

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DannyS

08 Apr 2020
10:36:58pm

re: Coronavirus

From where I am sitting the thread is too long. I read it every day, but when I open this thread I now walk away and make a coffee. That way I am not sitting waiting for the thread to jump down to where I last read it. I thought I had a good internet connection, but obviously not good enough. There's a bottleneck somewhere between us. A new thread would help.

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larsdog

APS #220693 ATA#57179
08 Apr 2020
10:46:04pm

re: Coronavirus

I got to the latest post in under two seconds with no scrolling required. I don't know if it's an ISP issue or a browser issue, but it isn't universal.

Lars

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larsdog

APS #220693 ATA#57179
08 Apr 2020
11:10:33pm

re: Coronavirus

It's useful to keep the thread intact to revisit some of the earlier posts, such as:

Mar 26:

"The USA has the most reported cases IF you want to believe China. Additionally, while the US is ranked 1st in reported cases but ranks 6th in deaths. This speaks incredibly well for the US healthcare system and brave folks who work in it."



My reply was:

"True, but deaths are a trailing indicator. See where China, Italy, and the US are on April 15. And factor in population size as well. Italy should be played out by then because they have a smaller population. "



Still a week to go until April 15. USA takes over #2 spot tomorrow on total deaths. Easily takes the top spot before April 15. I also have a lot of good things to say about the US healthcare system and brave folks who work in it. It's the catastrophic failure of the Federal government that needs to be called on the carpet!

Mar 31:

"The latest statistics* indicate "only" 101 deaths (3 per million population), far, far less than our neighbour to the south, the U.S., with 3,788 deaths (11 per million population). Much of that success, if I dare call it that, lies with our provincial and federal governments, which have been proactive from the beginning, and with a united front of all political parties. Canadians from coast to coast are being urged to stay at home except for necessary trips for groceries, pharmaceuticals, and emergency medical visits, and "mental health" walks outdoors. "



Today, Canada has 11 deaths per million. There are other metrics that show Canada on a MUCH more favorable curve than the US, but both countries are still seeing exponential growth so using deaths per million now is premature. Deaths are a trailing indicator, and as Ikey Pikey pointed out, reporting of even deaths is suspect in many cases. That will need to be done well after the fact by actuaries.

I know the thread is long, but the loss of continuity may not be worth the split. Maybe start a new thread called Coronavirus light?

Lars

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ikeyPikey

08 Apr 2020
11:45:02pm

re: Coronavirus

"... Would that not be a COVID-19 related death? ..."



Someone gets Covid-19, then they develop a secondary bacterial infection (pneumonia), then their heart works very hard, then they die of a heart attack or stroke.

Sorting & counting death certificates by cause of death will never get you to a solid count of deaths attributable to Covid-19, because experienced people with informed opinions will still differ over where that chain-of-events could have been broken.

Even auditing all of those individual medical records, one-by-one, will never get you to a solid count of deaths attributable to Covid-19.

However, medical records auditing would help plan mitigation of the next pandemic.

"... If you subtract the expected number of deaths from the actual total for 2020, I think that may be the best measure you can get of the TRUE cost of SARS-Cov-2 (COVID-19) ..."



In early 1991, Israel was hit by 39 Scud missiles. When it was all over, the government proudly announced that only one person had died during a missile attack ... senior citizen, heart attack, what can you do.

Meanwhile, a few weeks after that, statisticians were pointing-out that the country suffered more than 300 net additional deaths in the time of the missile attacks.

Yes, computing net additional deaths in the time of the pandemic is likely to be the only useful number we'll ever have.

Cheers,

/s/ ikeyPikey (whose cheap-as-dirt entry-level internet connection loads this thread in about 2 seconds while streaming Netflix)
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larsdog

APS #220693 ATA#57179
09 Apr 2020
12:59:14am

re: Coronavirus

I must say, I enjoy snark, especially subtle snark, but this is BRILLIANT!

"/s/ ikeyPikey (whose cheap-as-dirt entry-level internet connection loads this thread in about 2 seconds while streaming Netflix)"



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larsdog

APS #220693 ATA#57179
09 Apr 2020
01:06:43am

re: Coronavirus

"Yes, computing net additional deaths in the time of the pandemic is likely to be the only useful number we'll ever have."



I'm just surprised that you didn't mention the folks that WOULD have died of influenza if they didn't die of SARS-Cov-2 first, and vice versa. Exact numbers are not really possible.
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philatelia

APS #156650
09 Apr 2020
05:02:44am

re: Coronavirus

What browser are you using? Maybe the problem some of us are having with the long thread is specific to our device. I’m using an iPad Pro with safari and high speed Internet.

Does anyone else remember the golden days on Stamporama when someone would immediately be offered helpful suggestions if they were having site usage problems? Now the trend seems to be “Screw you, mine is FINE.” Sickening how the level of polite discourse has nosedived in the past few years. And, to answer your question, Ikey, that is why I have become hesitant to post. I’m too thin skinned and sick right now - I just don’t have the energy to bicker, nitpick and debate every issue. It’s too exhausting. I’d rather have fun doing something else more pleasant.

In any case, we have split numerous threads in the past, I didn’t think it would generate a debate. Just goes to show how difficult it is to reach a consensus on any subject with a large, diverse group. Anyways, the problem is easily solved for those of us with lag - skip the long threads. Toodles!




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angore

Collector, Moderator
09 Apr 2020
07:21:21am

re: Coronavirus

I will discuss with admins to see if this thread should be locked.

The Polynesian thread is the slowest loading to me and likely due to all image content.

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Neddie Seagoon from The Telegoons
09 Apr 2020
07:30:09am

Auctions - Approvals

re: Coronavirus

I've started a Coronavirus 2 Thread.

That way we can leave the Coronavirus with its 360 posts!!

When Coronavirus 2 thread is too long we can start a Coronavirus 3 etc etc etc

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ernieinjax

09 Apr 2020
08:35:07am

re: Coronavirus

My local news is starting to say things like, "light at the end of the tunnel", "possible easing of restrictions" etc. I predict people will start demanding that we go into "the next phase" (whatever that is) soon.

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BenFranklin1902

Tom in Exton, PA
09 Apr 2020
11:15:09am

Approvals

re: Coronavirus

Per adding up collateral deaths due to the epidemic...
On Friday a fellow I knew in my model car hobby died. He fell off a ladder at home and landed head first on concrete. Circumstantially if we didn’t have this lockdown he would have safely been at work. But instead he was home and decided to get some house work done. Sad.

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larsdog

APS #220693 ATA#57179
09 Apr 2020
11:47:58am

re: Coronavirus

Tom,

Sad to hear of the loss.

Lars

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larsdog

APS #220693 ATA#57179
11 Apr 2020
12:34:15am

re: Coronavirus

Sadly, the U.S. surpassed the half million mark today for confirmed SARS-CoV-2 cases.

Remember when I posted:

"So my prediction for the U.S. is:
March 31 - over 100,000 infected; over 1,000 dead
April 15 - 500,000 to 1 million infected; around 10,000 dead
April 30 - tbd based on government action or inaction, but I wouldn't be surprised to see over 25,000 dead by April 30.

This isn't politics. This is math. "



and the response was:

"Your trajectory outlines a worst case scenario"



Really? I was just looking at an OBVIOUS exponential growth curve. The results so far:

March 31 - 189,967 infected; 4064 dead
April 10 - 502,876 infected; 18,747 dead

If anything, it was wishful thinking on my part.

We also read this:

"Additionally, while the US is ranked 1st in reported cases it ranks 6th in deaths."



Of course, deaths are a TRAILING indicator, and sadly the U.S. will be "Number 1" in a matter of minutes, if not already. I told the O.P. to check again 4-15, but we won't have to wait that long with the U.S. only 102 deaths behind Italy at midnight GMT and a death rate 3 to 4 times higher for the U.S.

I'm not posting this to demonstrate some psychic ability or advanced medical knowledge. I have neither. I was just looking at the data trends. That's all. So how was I able to make such long range projections? I wasn't. THAT WAS LITERALLY 17 days ago that I posted that - March 24. OBVIOUSLY there was NOTHING that would change the trend before March 31, but we COULD see some flattening of the curve by April 15.

Have we?

Let's look at Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the U.S. You can argue about testing and reporting and all that, and there are valid points to be made, but since using the death rate, which is a trailing indicator, would be premature for Western democracies, here are the reported infection rates for the past 5 days:

Canada 16,667 / 17,897 / 19,438 / 20,765 / 22,148
France 98,010 / 109,069 / 112,950 / 117,749 / 124869
Germany 103,375 / 107,663 / 113,296 / 118,235 / 122,171
Italy 132,547 / 135,586 / 139,422 / 143,626 / 147,577
Spain 136,675 / 141,942 / 148,220 / 153,222 / 158,273
U.S. 370,019 / 403,521 / 435,518 / 469,124 / 502,876

Daily percentage increase:

Canada 7.38 / 8.61 / 6.83 / 6.66
France 11.28 / 3.56 / 4.25 / 6.05
Germany 4.15 / 5.23 / 4.36 / 3.33
Italy 2.30 / 2.83 / 3.02 / 2.75
Spain 3.85 / 4.42 / 3.37 / 3.30
U.S. 9.05 / 7.93 / 7.72 / 7.19

The way I read those numbers, Canada is doing a better job than the U.S., but both are effectively flattening the curve. Italy is playing out, and France looks to be the next hot spot in Europe, although you want to be careful about comparing BETWEEN countries since reporting criteria vary so much.

Without herd immunity, we need to be cautious how we start to loosen the clamps on society to prevent an echo spike. Those are the kinds of discussions we should be having now. As voters.

What really concerns me is India and Africa. We desperately need a vaccine ASAP. My prediction is October and that is VERY optimistic, but that's what I'm hoping for. Definitely BEFORE the next flu season starts!!!

Lars
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keesindy

11 Apr 2020
01:48:50am

re: Coronavirus

Lars wrote:

"We desperately need a vaccine ASAP. My prediction is October and that is VERY optimistic, but that's what I'm hoping for. Definitely BEFORE the next flu season starts!!!"



We DO need a vaccine ASAP, but phase III clinical trials are either going to be thorough and produce marketable drugs that are determined to be reasonably safe with tolerable side effects or they're going to be rushed through the process and result in marketable drugs that may be prone to later discoveries of serious side effects that could endanger the health or even the lives of millions of Americans. The medical and research communities in the pharma industry and at FDA have spent years evaluating the success/failure of past phase III trials in an effort to balance the need for speedy trials vs public safety. How many lives do we lose to the virus while waiting vs how many serious health issues or deaths might we risk if the trial is rushed and results, years later, in a previously unrecognized serious side effect? It happens. Drugs are pulled from the market. People die. Pharmaceutical companies are sued.

The FDA is charged with establishing suitable guidelines for the trials. It's not a job I would want. Given the importance of the trial results, it is probably fair to say the protocol for trials errs on the side of public safety.

The FDA can authorize the emergency use of a drug during phase III testing. In that case, it's up to the patient and his/her doctor to weigh the risks and benefits of taking that drug before the trial had been completed.

Full disclosure: My perspective is guided by the fact wife is in the top 1 percentile of those who would probably not survive infection by this virus. She knows the phase III trials process inside and out. We're paying close attention and expecting to see one or two effective treatment options become relatively widely available within a few months and then an effective vaccine a year or more from now.

Tom
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philatelia

APS #156650
11 Apr 2020
05:44:52am

re: Coronavirus

Sincere wishes that both you and your wife avoid infection. Ditto for all the folks here. Stay safe everyone.

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