Discussion - Member to Member Sales - Research Center
Discussion - Member to Member Sales - Research Center
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So far, I am not seeing much of any surprises. Scott reported in 2013 that the market was soft and slightly down. Looks like the trend is continuing in the USA area.
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Michael, I do appreciate your listing these entries. I always check my collecting areas and if nothing is radically different, I can rest assured I do not need to buy a new set of catalogues! 
Thanks again.
Peter
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One thing that drove me to buy a new set of catalogs this year is that Scott has renumbered the Portugal and Portuguese-area Ceres sets. They are listing as major numbers the two types of perforations and also paper type.
I haven't yet fully looked at how they did this. I will get to it in short order, however, as Angola is not far away in the catalog!
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One dealer I spoke with a while back was talking about how the demand for Canal Zone was skyrocketing. I guess not so much (as I suspected).
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The dealer may have been trying to coax you into buying his overstock.
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I'll be on a marathon work schedule again over the weekend. I probably won't have much spare time where I'm awake enough to work on the catalog. (Hopefully just a few more weeks of this...)
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I had noticed increased interest in the Dune stamps, so the increase in Ajman stamps does not come as a surprise. I am still wondering if some dune states are more desirable than others. That remains to be seen. 
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Michael,
I always appreciate when you do this!
I do not look forward to what you will report on Ireland down the line, as I know there have been some substantial decreases there!
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The biog drops in Ireland came in 2013. I haven't heard of more since then. I guess we'll see in a couple of months.
The Trucial States is an area that is hard to understand. I think that the demand for these is coming mostly from Europe. There doesn't seem to be that much of a love for these in the US. There was just an article in Linn's about the sheikdoms. It suggested that there are legitimate stamps from these areas that merit collecting, but are not included in Scott. The author of the article called for a reconsideration of the listings.
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I agree with them, Michael. Especially when I have some on cover (from Umm Al Qiwain).
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But are your covers commercial or philatelic in nature?
I received mail from the Redonda Tourist Bureau in the late 1970s. The covers (I don't have them anymore, but I soaked the stamps off)had a Redonda stamps and a United Nations - New York stamp on them. The Redonda stamp was canceled with a Redonda cancel, but the cover needed the UN stamp to be valid. Scott even created a specialty album for Redonda. That I still have.
I do agree with you, and the article, however. Still, there are many phantom issues from the Trucial States that do not merit catalog listings. Even Michel doesn't list many of those.
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Michael, I'm just curious. When you do these comparisons do you examine selected stamps, all stamps, or make general impressions based on a random sample within a country?
Peter
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All of my stamps (about 300,000) in my albums are cataloged in my inventory files. I go through the catalogs one stamp/set at a time, and update as appropriate.
For the purposes of my postings here, I make notes as to what I am finding as I go along (like something interesting or could be of interest to someone). When I finish my work for the day, I post about my findings. If the total 2013 value of a country was $100, and the 2015 value is $90, I will report that as a 10% decline. If a country is up or down, but there is nothing special about what I find, I'll just list the country and the results without any additional commentary.
So, what I report is a simple comparison of the total value of all my stamps by country between the 2013 and 2015 catalog values. The added commentary is intended to provide more information to those deciding whether to re-evaluate their own collection of a particular country or area.
Again, these are my findings of my own collection. If, for example, someone else's Canada collection is used and mine is unused, there may be differences in the evaluations. There also could be differences if say my Canada collection is 95% complete (it is, by the way) and someone else's is 50% complete.
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The review postings are now complete for Volume 1. I have not yet received Volume 2, but it is expected soon.
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I have been following your postings. Thanks!
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Thanks very much Michael for sharing this with us once again.
I always find your results for this fascinating.
I look forward to your findings for Volume 2 when you have it to hand and when you have time to continue your analysis.
As always, fingers crossed for Crete.
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I had to take a peak ahead to PR China. I have Scott #1586, the 1980 Year of the Monkey stamp, and am always curious as to how it is moving. I bought it years ago in an APS sales circuit for $160.00. In the 2015 Scott, it has increased to $2,000.00 (it was $1,950.00 in the 2013 catalog).
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So far it seems the Pacific islands have declined in value, while the Atlantic Islands have maintained or increased value. Interesting.
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I definitely raised an eyebrow when I saw the drop for Christmas Island and Cocos Islands. It will be interesting to see if this trend continues.
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Info on Volume 3 of the catalogs:
"Scott Catalogue
Volume 3
Significant value activity was recorded in Germany, Great Britain and Italy. More than 3,200 value changes were made in Germany. In Great Britain, more than 1,000 value changes were made and almost 2,300 changes are seen in Italy."
I've been on 6 day work weeks again. Just worked a couple of 12 hour shifts, and have to go back to work in 12 hours (yes, early AM). We are down 2 people, but the manager won't hire replacements, yet he complains about the work not getting done and how his bonus won't be so good this time. (duh!) I'll get back to Volume 2 as soon as I can.
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And yet secretly he is hoping for a bigger bonus by increasing efficiency and reducing costs.
Sorry, couldn't resist.
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You are correct. He also is ordering less product and complaining that sales are dropping. We have plan-o-grams for placement of product. However, if he orders too much of something that is a slow seller, he removes the good selling items and replaces them with the slow mover. His thought is that if we only offer the slow moving items, customers have no choice but to buy them. WRONG! Customers have the choice to go elsewhere to buy the items that they want. Detached from reality, that's where he is.
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Updated a few more countries today. Now through Crete (sorry, Nigel).
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Thanks Michael. Maybe next time!
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Michael--
I see that Denmark has dropped .5% from 2013 to 2015. Any specific areas that caused the drop? It had increased significantly from 2008 to 2012.
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Not really, Bob. These countries with very low percentage changes (up or down) are just scattered far and few between. Sometimes it is just a couple of stamps (based on my collection) that changed. If I don't add any comments to the country review, it just means that I didn't find anything worth saying.
Dominica was not all that eventful either, but the Silver Jubilee issue took a big jump upwards. I know some people collect that omnibus issue, so I thought I'd mention it. Really wasn't all that much else all that worthy of discussion.
British Empire issues are easy to discern where the trends are based on the stamps issued during a monarch's reign. Thus far, I am finding little activity, but mostly up, in the Victoria era, Edward about the same, George V is mostly up, George VI is mixed, and Elizabeth is mostly down excepting usually the first definitive set after her Coronation.
Ecuador is next on the list to be reviewed. I have been busy working mixed shifts again, so I haven't had much free time to work on the updates. In September I will leave the job (that's the plan) and then I will be able to spend much more time online, including updating my approval books and creating many new ones. I also have big plans for my model railroad! Plus, I need to get my books in e-file format, and I am itching to resume writing the books I have started. I have been writing some articles, so I am still active in doing all the things I like to do. Just need more time.
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There's a new country atop the list of increases.
People, please don't send me emails telling me that I'm wasting my time doing this, and suggesting that I spend my time doing something "more worthwhile" in the hobby. It is my time to allocate as I want. If you don't think there is any merit to these postings, then don't read them. I'm not forcing anyone to do so.
Also, I am well versed at how Scott works and how the catalogs are configured. I am in constant communication with Scott, and have been so since Charles Pritchett was president of Scott. A number of edits that have been made in the catalogs over the years have come from suggestions that I have made. In the late 1970s, I was even asked to assist with valuation of Canadian stamps.
Thank you.
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"People, please don't send me emails telling me that I'm wasting my time doing this, and suggesting that I spend my time doing something "more worthwhile" in the hobby. It is my time to allocate as I want."
Indeed! That's one of the great things I like with this hobby, the freedom of choosing what you want to do with it. Keep doing what you enjoy to do
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08:49:36am
Whoever sent that email to you, Michael, is wrong, wrong, wrong. I admit your analysis is not beneficial to me, but it is to a lot of our members. And most of all, it is something you enjoy and I, for one, appreciate your effort and dedication. Damn the torpedoes, full speed ahead!
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More than one, and it happens every time I do this. It does not dissuade me.
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Why would someone make those comments? What you do and share should not matter to others.
I like what you are doing and posting the results. Looking forward to more as you continue this work.
Doug
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And continue it does. I'm getting into some larger countries next, like Finland and France. After that, the French colonies should go quickly and then it will be on to Volume 3.
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Some collectors seem to equate Scott with the Devil. Hating Scott becomes a religion to them, and they morph into bigots with an overwhelming sense of self-importance and entitlement. Michael uses Scott; ergo, Michael must be bullied.
I've never paid much attention to Michael's emails about changes in Scott's values, because I don't pay much attention to catalogue values. I have never thought of my collection as an investment in anything but recreation and education, so it really doesn't matter to me whether stamp & cover values go up or down or sideways. But I agree wholeheartedly with other responders to this thread: No one collector has any business telling any other collector what they should or shouldn't be doing!
Bob
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Thank you Michael for all your effort on these updates.
Now perhaps this is a bit radical but why couldn't Scott, Stanley Gibbons etc. actually provide this information in each release, in the index page next to each country?
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Scott does provide highlights to each new edition both in Linn's, and in the introduction to each catalog volume. As for an in-depth listing, I would surmise that if they told people that most countries in each volume had little or no movement in values, that they wouldn't sell many catalogs.
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That's a very valid point.
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Michael,
I, for one, enjoy and appreciate your efforts. Keep up the good work! BOB
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Michael, I'm late to this discussion but I remember even at the other site, you got these "don't waste your time" emails (heck, I even got one saying that I was corrupting the hobby by using it for a fund raiser for animal rescue agencies! Remember when I did those?). As someone noted, stamp collecting doesn't just involve those little pieces of paper; it is a passion among those we call collectors. We express this passion in some unique and sometimes odd-ball but always personally invested ways. "You should devote yourself to something more worthwhile for the hobby"? Really? I wonder what they have in mind.
I only look forward to changes in valuation for a handful of countries, but I enjoy getting a pulse of our hobby through this medium each time you do it. I appreciate your efforts.
Cheers,
Peter
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I think it's going a a couple of weeks since I posted more catalog updates. I have a pulled muscle in the back of my neck, and the "bobbing" up and down of my head to view the catalog and then the spreadsheet is very uncomfortable. It's bad enough that my head is normally loose to begin with.
I do have a few more countries done, but I'm right at France now. I will finish Volume 2 and list all of the results in one message. Once I finish France, the rest of the Volume 2 countries will go quick. By the way, Finland did not do well in the older material.
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Thanks, Michael, for the update. As I have said, I for one, have looked forward eagerly to your value updates. You must take care of yourself first, though.
I am not surprised about Finland. I felt the value increases I saw in the 2012 catalog (which is the what I use right now) were not sustainable. BOB
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Working long hours this past week, so I went ahead and posted updates for several countries that I had completed to keep interest going in this.
I'll get some more done soon.
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10:41:07pm
Comment by philb on 8/9/2014 @ 8:43am (posted in incorrect thread)
Interesting that the catalog values for the old French colonies are appreciating !
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No problem, phil.
If you look at the "high level" list, and the top ten countries (thus far) listed there, five are in the French area. However, Central African Republic and Dahomey/Benin are on the bottom ten of the list. Take Benin out of Dahomey and Dahomey would be up. With Central Africa, the King Tut issue had a big drop, and I think if that was not in the mix Central Africa would look differently as well.
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I have started Volume 3. I looked at the high level summary list. So far, it is roughly 1/3 increases, 1/3 no changes, and 1/3 decreases.
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I look forward to Hong Kong's listings. If it isn't too much trouble, can you give a specific MNH price for #66 Jubilee? Thanks.
Peter
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The Standard catalog doesn't give a MNH value for that stamp. Maybe the Classic does. I will be getting that one too in a few months when it is released. Just FYI, unused value is italicized at $525.00
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Please use this thread for discussions relating to Scott Catalog review.
Regarding Jan's question regarding the increases in Egypt, there is no mention in the introduction to the catalog about this. It is possible that it happened in the 2014 catalog, and may be mentioned there. Does anyone have a 2014 Volume 2 that they could please check the introduction for any mention of value changes in Egypt?
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I noticed that Scott is only posting MNH values for certain classic Hong Kong stamps in the Specialized. (I am sure there are other countries this is happening as well.) They have done the same thing to #167. I really don't like that they have done this--I do not plan on obtaining a Specialized catalog anytime soon.
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"Does anyone have a 2014 Volume 2 that they could please check the introduction for any mention of value changes in Egypt?"
Here's what Linn's / Amos publishing have to say about Volume 2:
"In Egypt, more than 3,600 value changes are recorded, with approximately 75 percent being increases."
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Thanks, so those changes happened last year. Now for why...I don't know for sure, but Scott does do a complete evaluation of a country once in a while. Prices are then adjusted accordingly.
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"I don't know for sure, but Scott does do a complete evaluation of a country once in a while. Prices are then adjusted accordingly."
In two sentences you have explained in full why I will never pay for the useless Scott Catalogue (either the print variety or the new e-version, which is a little cheaper).
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Thanks, Michael, for your detailed analysis of Great Britain, that you include the Regionals and Channel Islands in your analysis. Interesting that those areas had no changes at all this time. Since I collect the Regionals and CI/IOM, but not Great Britain itself, that was very helpful. BOB
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05:45:41pm
Earlier, David posted the following in another thread:
I have noticed GB as well. However, I do collect QV and KEVII issues and find myself able to purchase many of the stamps I previously thought were beyond my budget. You are right on with respect to the 10% figure (and often somewhat less) as I find that is what I am paying over on that other place, and the sellers appear glad to get it! No problem for me as I am not obtaining the stamps to sell, but rather to accumulate and enjoy. I estimate that I have spent over $500 in the past 60 days, and according to Scott, have about $7000cv to show for it.
I am also noticing that classic US has become affordable again. I am picking up banknotes, 1869 pictorials, and other great stuff for 1/5 cv or less!
But I also recently realized that, even though I am getting great buys, enough of these "great bargains" can put one in the poorhouse! I wish the price realizations would go up for the simple reason it would curb my buying. I think I have become the Imelda Marcos of stamps!
Is there a 12 step program for philateholics? 
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bobstew617 wrote:
"I noticed that Scott is only posting MNH values for certain classic Hong Kong stamps in the Specialized. (I am sure there are other countries this is happening as well.) They have done the same thing to #167. I really don't like that they have done this--I do not plan on obtaining a Specialized catalog anytime soon."
Bob, out of curiosity, what are 'certain classic Hong Kong stamps' as far as Scott is concerned? I ask because across the water here, we use S.G.
Gibbons, as far as I know, only states that stamps from QV, EVII, GV are priced as mint hinged; and MNH copies command a higher price than listed.
Does Scott indicate which of the issues are priced for MNH in the specialised?
Or do they just make a general comment in the footnotes?
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One example is Scott 167, which is a revenue stamp that was used postally. Scott used to show a MNH for this stamp in the regular G-I catalog, but now that value is only in the Specialized. I cannot speak for others off the top of my head, but that is a stamp I have pursued for several years (in vain for the right price). BOB
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PLEASE!! Use this thread for comments on the catalog review.
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Amazing information, Michael! You must be incredibly organized - impressive! 
Wouldn't it be fascinating to compare the price shifts in Scott's listings with Gibbons, Michel and others? Has anyone ever seen something like that published elsewhere?
Which reminds me, as huge as stamp collecting is becoming in China, is there a Chinese catalog for the world? What catalogs are most popular in China? I've read that the Chinese are fond of early British material, so my guess would be they are using Gibbons.
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I have used Yang's catalogues for Hong Kong, Macau, and China (separate books). They also publish a brochure that shows the correspondence of Yang and Gibbons numbers.
Peter
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"Hong Kong: +2.5%
Victoria and Edward issues were up; the Georges were mixed; "
Yay!
"The first two postage due sets dropped as did occupation issues."
Doh!
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I thought you would like that news. My most valuable Vickie did drop a bit however. It was the only one that did drop.
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Regarding Hong Kong:
""The first two postage due sets dropped as did occupation issues.""
I'm unsure what was meant by "occupation issue(S)". Were you referring to the Japanese occupation issue (singular) ?
Did the China overprints fall into this Scott review of Hong Kong?
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I use "issues" synonymous with "stamps". Scott only lists three surcharged Japanese stamps used during the Japanese occupation in 1945.
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Getting in more updates now. I wonder why...
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Very interesting about Iceland after 1970. I am not surprised as I thought many items were overvalued, especially in used condition as I seem to gather multiples of them.
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I have mostly MNH from Iceland. It was sad to see even the newest issues fall, but then Iceland has had a major financial crisis too.
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Scott said that they did a complete review of Israel resulting in some 1350 changes. Scott isn't joking when they said that most of the changes were decreases. Values prior to 1995 are hitting rock bottom (meaning 25 cent minimum). It's a good time to start an Israel collection, or to fill up empty spaces.
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Volume 3 is now complete. The review for Italy is very thorough. The value changes were so varied that I decided to list out the major time periods and back-of-book areas that saw the changes.
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SCOTT catalog and Cuba stamps:
Does any one know when did SCOTT catalog begin to include all the stamps from Cuba in their editions?
I tried to "google" this question and came with absolutely no answer. However, a lot of discussion on the embargo, problems with selling Cuban stamps on eBay, and the PayPal problems...
Your expert opinion is appreciated.
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With about 1/3 of Volume 4 under my belt (I guess I need to do some exercise to get rid of the bulkiness), it seems that Volume 4 has been the most dynamic thus far (at least for the J and K countries).
The market for Korea appears to be very strong. It is not often one sees used values increase with as much veracity as unused.
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Volume 4 is now completed.
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Volume 4 started out with much promise, especially after Korea. Alas, it fizzled out, and actually, by volume, showed the lowest overall increase in value from the previous volumes. Here's a recap (also can be seen at the top of the High-Level Summary thread):
United States: +2.3%
Volume 1: +6.1% (excludes United States)
Volume 2: +4.0%
Volume 3: +8.7%
Volume 4: +3.0%
Now we shall find out how Volume 5 fared.
Just a note that I do not go back and update value changes from the US Specialized and the Classic catalogs.
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Through four volumes, using 10% as the qualifier, here are the biggest gainers:
Greece: +63.1%
Hatay: +35.8%
Korea: +24.2%
Korea Democratic People's Republic: +23.7%
Karelia: +20.7%
Egypt: +19.7%
Great Britain: +16.7%
Ionian Islands: +15.0%
French Congo: +14.7%
Italian Colonies: +12.5%
Italian East Africa: +11.7%
Allenstein: +11.5%
Ajman: +11.2%
Here are the biggest losers:
Belarus: -10.6%
German New Guinea: -10.7%
Cocos Islands: -11.3%
Guyana: -11.5%
Israel: -11.6%
Mongolia: -14.0%
Christmas Island: -18.6%
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One thing that is hard to understand is when Scott does an extensive revision to values, like with New Zealand, changes in values both positive and negative are prevalent throughout the postage area. Then, when you get to the back-of-the-book, the changes suddenly stop. Hard to believe that there would be that many changes in the postage area, but not the BOB.
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Damn! Just when I am starting my fine used Republic of Hatay. +35.8%
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Michael, it appears up to this point that 19th Century stamps generally increased in value, correct?
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For British material, you could make that generalization. Victoria era has had increases, but there have been a few decreases as well. The Kings have seen both increases and decreases (probably a slightly higher percentage of increases), while Elizabeth era stamp were down or had little change. That's in general, and each British-area country has had its own nuances as I'm a little more than 2/3 through the project.
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North West Pacific Islands: -39.1%
News like that, Michael, makes me NERVOUS about PAPUA NEW GUINEA. Most of the Pacific area has seemed to take a nosedive, so it will be interesting to see what happens to one of my favorite collecting areas (especially after I just picked up a nice MNH copy of PNG Scott 136 on another site. ) BOB
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Well, Bob, you should have your answer soon as Papua New Guinea is not that far alphabetically from Pakistan (the next country on the list).
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It was not a good day for the latest batch of updates. Red was mostly the color of the day.
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So I got my answer re PNG. Expected, but not happy about it. 
Oh well.
(Next country I am looking forward to seeing is SAAR.)
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12:41:13am
" .... Why would someone make those comments? What you do and share should not matter to others. ...."
I agree and add, how is it any of their business what you do within the hobby ???
Next I think someone will tell me I shouldn't soak the gum from mint stamps before I hinge them from the face side .
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"Next I think someone will tell me I shouldn't soak the gum from mint stamps before I hinge them from the face side."
That's AFTER you write an incorrect CV on it first, right?
Michael, I am anxious awaiting your
Peter
Correction: I know there were no RSA Victoria stamps; I meant the British protectorates and colonies that later made up South Africa, of course (e.g., Transvaal, Natal).
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Okay, but I'll be doing Peru next, so it'll be a little bit before I get to South Africa. Got some huge countries coming up with Poland, Romania and Russia.
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Michael,
Do you remember seeing so many countries CV drop like it has this time? Just seems like many more decreases than I remember.
RUSSIA will be interesting to see-it had been hot, but the drop in the ruble against the dollar may influence things, if not this time, then the next. BOB
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So far, the overall balance appears to be on the positive side. Looking at the long high level review list, it seems like approximately 20% of the countries thus far are down. I haven't counted them out, but the countries with increases and those that had no changes are a large percentage of the list. Also, the bottom line for each of the first four catalogs has been positive.
I don't remember how this broke down in 2013, but I don't see that much of a difference in overall activity. Sure some different countries were on the chopping block, but some other countries wound up with nice gains, and many remained stable.
Scott released a small teaser about Volume 1 for 2016 (remember I said in another post that the catalog values for Volume 1 are done in December, five months prior to the catalog release date). Scott is reporting that the trends for 2015 are still present for 2016, but value increases for newer material are trending smaller than in 2015, signifying a stable market for newer material, but a growing one for quality classic material. Victoria issues in the British Commonwealth were picked out as continuing to increase in value. Barbados was specifically mentioned.
I have no plans to purchase the 2016 catalogs.
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I went through and edited the high level review summary to make it a little easier to read.
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Michael, thanks again for doing this. It's nice to have a point of reference over the years, which is how I use your listings. Although, this made me smile right now.
"Victoria issues in the British Commonwealth were picked out as continuing to increase in value."
Cheers,
Peter
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You're welcome. I think one area to keep an eye on is the British "Saints". APS is having a difficult time getting sales material for these due to the demand.
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Volume 5 is now completed.
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Wow! The Saints surely weren't marching in this time! Except, again, the Victoria issues (and KE7).
Any thoughts why those classic era stamps are maintaining or increasing in value, whereas more recent issues of higher CV are decreasing? Are people hoarding the classics; that is, they are just not coming up for auction and that influences the Scott values?
Peter
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You may have mis-read my note on Saint Vincent. It is the higher valued Victoria stamps that dropped. Plenty of the lower valued Victoria stamps increased, however.
Scott has said for a couple of years now that the stamps issued during Queen Elizabeth II are very prevalent, and the market is soft for them. The stamps from the Victoria era through George VI are in the "classic" period, and that's always been popular.
Some of the QEII issues from the 1950s and early 1960s are rising in value. It is the mid 1960s through the 1980s where there is alot of material available. Newer issues from many countries have fallen due to a stronger US dollar against those currencies, as explained by Scott.
I don't know what's driving demand for stamps from the British "Saints". Collecting popularity floats about seemingly hitting on areas where catalog values are low. When the values get too high, another area spikes. Except for some high valued items in the Saints, there is alot of material that is reasonably valued. I do know that for some time now the APS Sales Division has had the "Saints" on their wanted list for material that members are looking to purchase.
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Are you evaluating all issues or only the issues in your collection?
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Only what I have in my collection. That alone is 300,000 stamps. If I did all of the stamps in the catalog, I think I'd still be working on Aden!
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For those patiently waiting, I'll get started with Volume 6 after we get past the holidays. House guests keep me from working on my hobbies.
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I have started the review for Volume 6.
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The new dog picture is of my old friend Lobo, who I lost last year. We have a "member's dog" thread somewhere on the Discussion Board, and I posted other information and photos on him and my new guy, Brewster. We have alot of dog and cat lovers on SOR! Great friends they are, and I mean SOR members, dogs and cats.
My new e-store is on hold right now. I'm waiting for a programming upgrade from the ecrater folks that will permit flat rate shipping. That is supposed to be done sometime this month.
I won't post more about this on the boards as I think it would violate our self promotion policy (does it?). Anyone interested about this free alternative to BS/SG can always send me a PM and we can discuss it there. In any event, I don't want to discuss web stores in this thread.
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A rather lackluster start to Volume 6.
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As you are now in the final volume, Michael, I decided to take a look again at the thread that had your 2011-2013 comparisons. Interesting what has happened to some countries in just a couple of years time. It was interesting to see that Korea is one country that has stayed hot. I may just make a spreadsheet doing a side by side comparison once you are done with this year--I love geeky things like that--it's the accountant in me. 
On the other side, one of my problems with having a 2012 set of catalogues as opposed to upgrading is when there are significant drops in CV for a country such as Ireland. I was recently trading with another collector initially using my 2012 values, but for the stamps I was sending, many had dropped substantially in value between then and 2015. 
For certain countries I collect, I think I am going to start buying just those pages if I know if the market is volatile, esp. if I am going to trade on an SCV basis.
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Sounds like a good way to use the data, and to determine if one wants to purchase the catalogs or just certain country pages.
I put out the information that I find as an extension of the work I do on my collection. Anyone should feel free to use the data as they want for their own collecting needs.
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I am coming around to the home stretch with 1/2 of volume 6 completed.
I was surprised by two countries in the last group that I reviewed.
I was expecting more downward changes in Switzerland, but the changes were all relegated to the early issues, particularly 19th Century. The increases in stamps issued in the early 20th century offset some of the losses in the 19th Century.
I purchased a box lot of an almost complete collection of Swaziland last year. As I was placing the stamps in my album, I noticed the differences in the values on the packets and what I was seeing in the 2015 catalog. The difference was showing a negative net from what the packets showed and what the 2015 catalog values were. I was expecting an overall decrease in value for the country. That wasn't to be. With the healthy increase in stamp values for Swaziland in the 2015 catalog, compared to the 2013 catalog, I have no idea where those stamp values in the box lot came from.
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Interesting to see what happened with Switzerland. I have only a handful of 19th century stamps, so my net change may be less in my case--we'll see whenever I get to that.
Like you, I was actually expecting a larger decrease.
Thanks, Michael, for your detailed review. I appreciate it. BOB
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Bob, let us know how your 19th century Swiss stamps did. Would be an interesting comparison.
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I will do that--probably worth it to get those pages. I had more 19th century stamps than I expected (I'm in the midst of doing a new inventory of stamps right now).
In the meantime, I was surprised the Thailand had no changes at all--that was a HOT area for a while. BOB
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They've had some political turmoil. Probably disrupted their currency.
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The Valentines Day list of updates starts out in the red. Wasn't that nice to celebrate the day? If you like Vickies, she sent a kiss to you from Trinidad. Finally, if you're a collector of Italian colonies, then you'll fall in love with Tripolitania.
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I've been good to Vickie and it seems she, in turn, has graced me with continue good value over the years.
Michael, isn't it time to start the 2016 review? (kidding!)
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You're not that far off. The 2016 Scott catalogs start coming out in April. Volume 1 for 2016 is the first to be released, and will have valuations based in December 2014.
When it comes to catalogs, we've had many discussions here about the validity of the published catalog values. The catalogs are great to help people identify their stamps and keep their collections in order, but the pricing data is like old news and just historical information. The catalogs will give one a vague "idea" of the worth of their collections, but will never give an exact true market value. If catalogs gave the true value, then we would all buy stamps at the published catalog value of a stamp without any hesitation. How many of us truly buy stamps at full catalog all the time, or even some of the time?
Just for the record, due to the enormous cost of the catalogs, I will not be buying the 2016 catalogs. I don't think that market forces are going to cause that much of a change in values. Scott might hitch a ride to the stronger dollar, and lower values due to that. In 2017 the dollar might be weaker, and then the values will go back up to where they were. I don't want to get caught in that monetary cycle by purchasing the catalogs every year just to keep up with currency exchange rates. It doesn't really change the market values of stamps all that much.
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Well, it took a while (seems to take longer each time I do this), but it's now completed. Take from it as you will. It may or not reflect on your own collection, and your results may be significantly different from mine depending on what you collect, but it should give you some insight as to what the values overall are doing.
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Thnak you again, Michael, for all your hard work on this. I can only imagine how time consuming it is for you, my collection is much smaller than yours, and I am working on the updates for my 19th-early 20th century Swiss and also for Ireland. I will post those in a separate thread when I am done.
Michael, for your Ireland, is most of your collection mint/MNH or used? Right now I am seeing a much greater drop in the MNH issues than the used (in my case from 2012 to 2015).
It goes to show that the change for each person may be dfifferent according to what they collect and also the span between catalogs.
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My Ireland is mostly MNH.
Remember that in the 2013 catalogs, Ireland took the big drop compared to the 2012 catalogs. So, you missed the initial drop. If I recall, in your post commenting on the big drops back then, you were crying in your Guinness!
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Yes, I was, I am seeing the effects now--yikes!
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Wow. It is fascinating to track all the value changes (or lack thereof).
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Please use this thread to discuss the findings in the catalog review posts.
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re: 2013-2015 Scott Catalog Review Discussions
So far, I am not seeing much of any surprises. Scott reported in 2013 that the market was soft and slightly down. Looks like the trend is continuing in the USA area.
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09:35:19am
re: 2013-2015 Scott Catalog Review Discussions
Michael, I do appreciate your listing these entries. I always check my collecting areas and if nothing is radically different, I can rest assured I do not need to buy a new set of catalogues!
Thanks again.
Peter
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re: 2013-2015 Scott Catalog Review Discussions
One thing that drove me to buy a new set of catalogs this year is that Scott has renumbered the Portugal and Portuguese-area Ceres sets. They are listing as major numbers the two types of perforations and also paper type.
I haven't yet fully looked at how they did this. I will get to it in short order, however, as Angola is not far away in the catalog!
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re: 2013-2015 Scott Catalog Review Discussions
One dealer I spoke with a while back was talking about how the demand for Canal Zone was skyrocketing. I guess not so much (as I suspected).
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The dealer may have been trying to coax you into buying his overstock.
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re: 2013-2015 Scott Catalog Review Discussions
I'll be on a marathon work schedule again over the weekend. I probably won't have much spare time where I'm awake enough to work on the catalog. (Hopefully just a few more weeks of this...)
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re: 2013-2015 Scott Catalog Review Discussions
I had noticed increased interest in the Dune stamps, so the increase in Ajman stamps does not come as a surprise. I am still wondering if some dune states are more desirable than others. That remains to be seen.
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re: 2013-2015 Scott Catalog Review Discussions
Michael,
I always appreciate when you do this!
I do not look forward to what you will report on Ireland down the line, as I know there have been some substantial decreases there!
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re: 2013-2015 Scott Catalog Review Discussions
The biog drops in Ireland came in 2013. I haven't heard of more since then. I guess we'll see in a couple of months.
The Trucial States is an area that is hard to understand. I think that the demand for these is coming mostly from Europe. There doesn't seem to be that much of a love for these in the US. There was just an article in Linn's about the sheikdoms. It suggested that there are legitimate stamps from these areas that merit collecting, but are not included in Scott. The author of the article called for a reconsideration of the listings.
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re: 2013-2015 Scott Catalog Review Discussions
I agree with them, Michael. Especially when I have some on cover (from Umm Al Qiwain).
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re: 2013-2015 Scott Catalog Review Discussions
But are your covers commercial or philatelic in nature?
I received mail from the Redonda Tourist Bureau in the late 1970s. The covers (I don't have them anymore, but I soaked the stamps off)had a Redonda stamps and a United Nations - New York stamp on them. The Redonda stamp was canceled with a Redonda cancel, but the cover needed the UN stamp to be valid. Scott even created a specialty album for Redonda. That I still have.
I do agree with you, and the article, however. Still, there are many phantom issues from the Trucial States that do not merit catalog listings. Even Michel doesn't list many of those.
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04:53:19pm
re: 2013-2015 Scott Catalog Review Discussions
Michael, I'm just curious. When you do these comparisons do you examine selected stamps, all stamps, or make general impressions based on a random sample within a country?
Peter
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re: 2013-2015 Scott Catalog Review Discussions
All of my stamps (about 300,000) in my albums are cataloged in my inventory files. I go through the catalogs one stamp/set at a time, and update as appropriate.
For the purposes of my postings here, I make notes as to what I am finding as I go along (like something interesting or could be of interest to someone). When I finish my work for the day, I post about my findings. If the total 2013 value of a country was $100, and the 2015 value is $90, I will report that as a 10% decline. If a country is up or down, but there is nothing special about what I find, I'll just list the country and the results without any additional commentary.
So, what I report is a simple comparison of the total value of all my stamps by country between the 2013 and 2015 catalog values. The added commentary is intended to provide more information to those deciding whether to re-evaluate their own collection of a particular country or area.
Again, these are my findings of my own collection. If, for example, someone else's Canada collection is used and mine is unused, there may be differences in the evaluations. There also could be differences if say my Canada collection is 95% complete (it is, by the way) and someone else's is 50% complete.
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re: 2013-2015 Scott Catalog Review Discussions
The review postings are now complete for Volume 1. I have not yet received Volume 2, but it is expected soon.
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re: 2013-2015 Scott Catalog Review Discussions
I have been following your postings. Thanks!
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re: 2013-2015 Scott Catalog Review Discussions
Thanks very much Michael for sharing this with us once again.
I always find your results for this fascinating.
I look forward to your findings for Volume 2 when you have it to hand and when you have time to continue your analysis.
As always, fingers crossed for Crete.
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re: 2013-2015 Scott Catalog Review Discussions
I had to take a peak ahead to PR China. I have Scott #1586, the 1980 Year of the Monkey stamp, and am always curious as to how it is moving. I bought it years ago in an APS sales circuit for $160.00. In the 2015 Scott, it has increased to $2,000.00 (it was $1,950.00 in the 2013 catalog).
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re: 2013-2015 Scott Catalog Review Discussions
So far it seems the Pacific islands have declined in value, while the Atlantic Islands have maintained or increased value. Interesting.
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re: 2013-2015 Scott Catalog Review Discussions
I definitely raised an eyebrow when I saw the drop for Christmas Island and Cocos Islands. It will be interesting to see if this trend continues.
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re: 2013-2015 Scott Catalog Review Discussions
Info on Volume 3 of the catalogs:
"Scott Catalogue
Volume 3
Significant value activity was recorded in Germany, Great Britain and Italy. More than 3,200 value changes were made in Germany. In Great Britain, more than 1,000 value changes were made and almost 2,300 changes are seen in Italy."
I've been on 6 day work weeks again. Just worked a couple of 12 hour shifts, and have to go back to work in 12 hours (yes, early AM). We are down 2 people, but the manager won't hire replacements, yet he complains about the work not getting done and how his bonus won't be so good this time. (duh!) I'll get back to Volume 2 as soon as I can.
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re: 2013-2015 Scott Catalog Review Discussions
And yet secretly he is hoping for a bigger bonus by increasing efficiency and reducing costs.
Sorry, couldn't resist.
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re: 2013-2015 Scott Catalog Review Discussions
You are correct. He also is ordering less product and complaining that sales are dropping. We have plan-o-grams for placement of product. However, if he orders too much of something that is a slow seller, he removes the good selling items and replaces them with the slow mover. His thought is that if we only offer the slow moving items, customers have no choice but to buy them. WRONG! Customers have the choice to go elsewhere to buy the items that they want. Detached from reality, that's where he is.
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re: 2013-2015 Scott Catalog Review Discussions
Updated a few more countries today. Now through Crete (sorry, Nigel).
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Thanks Michael. Maybe next time!
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Michael--
I see that Denmark has dropped .5% from 2013 to 2015. Any specific areas that caused the drop? It had increased significantly from 2008 to 2012.
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re: 2013-2015 Scott Catalog Review Discussions
Not really, Bob. These countries with very low percentage changes (up or down) are just scattered far and few between. Sometimes it is just a couple of stamps (based on my collection) that changed. If I don't add any comments to the country review, it just means that I didn't find anything worth saying.
Dominica was not all that eventful either, but the Silver Jubilee issue took a big jump upwards. I know some people collect that omnibus issue, so I thought I'd mention it. Really wasn't all that much else all that worthy of discussion.
British Empire issues are easy to discern where the trends are based on the stamps issued during a monarch's reign. Thus far, I am finding little activity, but mostly up, in the Victoria era, Edward about the same, George V is mostly up, George VI is mixed, and Elizabeth is mostly down excepting usually the first definitive set after her Coronation.
Ecuador is next on the list to be reviewed. I have been busy working mixed shifts again, so I haven't had much free time to work on the updates. In September I will leave the job (that's the plan) and then I will be able to spend much more time online, including updating my approval books and creating many new ones. I also have big plans for my model railroad! Plus, I need to get my books in e-file format, and I am itching to resume writing the books I have started. I have been writing some articles, so I am still active in doing all the things I like to do. Just need more time.
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re: 2013-2015 Scott Catalog Review Discussions
There's a new country atop the list of increases.
People, please don't send me emails telling me that I'm wasting my time doing this, and suggesting that I spend my time doing something "more worthwhile" in the hobby. It is my time to allocate as I want. If you don't think there is any merit to these postings, then don't read them. I'm not forcing anyone to do so.
Also, I am well versed at how Scott works and how the catalogs are configured. I am in constant communication with Scott, and have been so since Charles Pritchett was president of Scott. A number of edits that have been made in the catalogs over the years have come from suggestions that I have made. In the late 1970s, I was even asked to assist with valuation of Canadian stamps.
Thank you.
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"People, please don't send me emails telling me that I'm wasting my time doing this, and suggesting that I spend my time doing something "more worthwhile" in the hobby. It is my time to allocate as I want."
Indeed! That's one of the great things I like with this hobby, the freedom of choosing what you want to do with it. Keep doing what you enjoy to do
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They who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety. -Benjamin Franklin
11 Jul 2014
08:49:36am
re: 2013-2015 Scott Catalog Review Discussions
Whoever sent that email to you, Michael, is wrong, wrong, wrong. I admit your analysis is not beneficial to me, but it is to a lot of our members. And most of all, it is something you enjoy and I, for one, appreciate your effort and dedication. Damn the torpedoes, full speed ahead!
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re: 2013-2015 Scott Catalog Review Discussions
More than one, and it happens every time I do this. It does not dissuade me.
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re: 2013-2015 Scott Catalog Review Discussions
Why would someone make those comments? What you do and share should not matter to others.
I like what you are doing and posting the results. Looking forward to more as you continue this work.
Doug
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re: 2013-2015 Scott Catalog Review Discussions
And continue it does. I'm getting into some larger countries next, like Finland and France. After that, the French colonies should go quickly and then it will be on to Volume 3.
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re: 2013-2015 Scott Catalog Review Discussions
Some collectors seem to equate Scott with the Devil. Hating Scott becomes a religion to them, and they morph into bigots with an overwhelming sense of self-importance and entitlement. Michael uses Scott; ergo, Michael must be bullied.
I've never paid much attention to Michael's emails about changes in Scott's values, because I don't pay much attention to catalogue values. I have never thought of my collection as an investment in anything but recreation and education, so it really doesn't matter to me whether stamp & cover values go up or down or sideways. But I agree wholeheartedly with other responders to this thread: No one collector has any business telling any other collector what they should or shouldn't be doing!
Bob
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Thank you Michael for all your effort on these updates.
Now perhaps this is a bit radical but why couldn't Scott, Stanley Gibbons etc. actually provide this information in each release, in the index page next to each country?
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re: 2013-2015 Scott Catalog Review Discussions
Scott does provide highlights to each new edition both in Linn's, and in the introduction to each catalog volume. As for an in-depth listing, I would surmise that if they told people that most countries in each volume had little or no movement in values, that they wouldn't sell many catalogs.
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re: 2013-2015 Scott Catalog Review Discussions
That's a very valid point.
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re: 2013-2015 Scott Catalog Review Discussions
Michael,
I, for one, enjoy and appreciate your efforts. Keep up the good work! BOB
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02:07:41pm
re: 2013-2015 Scott Catalog Review Discussions
Michael, I'm late to this discussion but I remember even at the other site, you got these "don't waste your time" emails (heck, I even got one saying that I was corrupting the hobby by using it for a fund raiser for animal rescue agencies! Remember when I did those?). As someone noted, stamp collecting doesn't just involve those little pieces of paper; it is a passion among those we call collectors. We express this passion in some unique and sometimes odd-ball but always personally invested ways. "You should devote yourself to something more worthwhile for the hobby"? Really? I wonder what they have in mind.
I only look forward to changes in valuation for a handful of countries, but I enjoy getting a pulse of our hobby through this medium each time you do it. I appreciate your efforts.
Cheers,
Peter
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re: 2013-2015 Scott Catalog Review Discussions
I think it's going a a couple of weeks since I posted more catalog updates. I have a pulled muscle in the back of my neck, and the "bobbing" up and down of my head to view the catalog and then the spreadsheet is very uncomfortable. It's bad enough that my head is normally loose to begin with.
I do have a few more countries done, but I'm right at France now. I will finish Volume 2 and list all of the results in one message. Once I finish France, the rest of the Volume 2 countries will go quick. By the way, Finland did not do well in the older material.
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re: 2013-2015 Scott Catalog Review Discussions
Thanks, Michael, for the update. As I have said, I for one, have looked forward eagerly to your value updates. You must take care of yourself first, though.
I am not surprised about Finland. I felt the value increases I saw in the 2012 catalog (which is the what I use right now) were not sustainable. BOB
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re: 2013-2015 Scott Catalog Review Discussions
Working long hours this past week, so I went ahead and posted updates for several countries that I had completed to keep interest going in this.
I'll get some more done soon.
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They who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety. -Benjamin Franklin
09 Aug 2014
10:41:07pm
re: 2013-2015 Scott Catalog Review Discussions
Comment by philb on 8/9/2014 @ 8:43am (posted in incorrect thread)
Interesting that the catalog values for the old French colonies are appreciating !
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re: 2013-2015 Scott Catalog Review Discussions
No problem, phil.
If you look at the "high level" list, and the top ten countries (thus far) listed there, five are in the French area. However, Central African Republic and Dahomey/Benin are on the bottom ten of the list. Take Benin out of Dahomey and Dahomey would be up. With Central Africa, the King Tut issue had a big drop, and I think if that was not in the mix Central Africa would look differently as well.
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re: 2013-2015 Scott Catalog Review Discussions
I have started Volume 3. I looked at the high level summary list. So far, it is roughly 1/3 increases, 1/3 no changes, and 1/3 decreases.
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08:22:05pm
re: 2013-2015 Scott Catalog Review Discussions
I look forward to Hong Kong's listings. If it isn't too much trouble, can you give a specific MNH price for #66 Jubilee? Thanks.
Peter
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re: 2013-2015 Scott Catalog Review Discussions
The Standard catalog doesn't give a MNH value for that stamp. Maybe the Classic does. I will be getting that one too in a few months when it is released. Just FYI, unused value is italicized at $525.00
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re: 2013-2015 Scott Catalog Review Discussions
Please use this thread for discussions relating to Scott Catalog review.
Regarding Jan's question regarding the increases in Egypt, there is no mention in the introduction to the catalog about this. It is possible that it happened in the 2014 catalog, and may be mentioned there. Does anyone have a 2014 Volume 2 that they could please check the introduction for any mention of value changes in Egypt?
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re: 2013-2015 Scott Catalog Review Discussions
I noticed that Scott is only posting MNH values for certain classic Hong Kong stamps in the Specialized. (I am sure there are other countries this is happening as well.) They have done the same thing to #167. I really don't like that they have done this--I do not plan on obtaining a Specialized catalog anytime soon.
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03:14:58pm
re: 2013-2015 Scott Catalog Review Discussions
"Does anyone have a 2014 Volume 2 that they could please check the introduction for any mention of value changes in Egypt?"
Here's what Linn's / Amos publishing have to say about Volume 2:
"In Egypt, more than 3,600 value changes are recorded, with approximately 75 percent being increases."
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re: 2013-2015 Scott Catalog Review Discussions
Thanks, so those changes happened last year. Now for why...I don't know for sure, but Scott does do a complete evaluation of a country once in a while. Prices are then adjusted accordingly.
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12:07:14am
re: 2013-2015 Scott Catalog Review Discussions
"I don't know for sure, but Scott does do a complete evaluation of a country once in a while. Prices are then adjusted accordingly."
In two sentences you have explained in full why I will never pay for the useless Scott Catalogue (either the print variety or the new e-version, which is a little cheaper).
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re: 2013-2015 Scott Catalog Review Discussions
Thanks, Michael, for your detailed analysis of Great Britain, that you include the Regionals and Channel Islands in your analysis. Interesting that those areas had no changes at all this time. Since I collect the Regionals and CI/IOM, but not Great Britain itself, that was very helpful. BOB
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They who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety. -Benjamin Franklin
08 Sep 2014
05:45:41pm
re: 2013-2015 Scott Catalog Review Discussions
Earlier, David posted the following in another thread:
I have noticed GB as well. However, I do collect QV and KEVII issues and find myself able to purchase many of the stamps I previously thought were beyond my budget. You are right on with respect to the 10% figure (and often somewhat less) as I find that is what I am paying over on that other place, and the sellers appear glad to get it! No problem for me as I am not obtaining the stamps to sell, but rather to accumulate and enjoy. I estimate that I have spent over $500 in the past 60 days, and according to Scott, have about $7000cv to show for it.
I am also noticing that classic US has become affordable again. I am picking up banknotes, 1869 pictorials, and other great stuff for 1/5 cv or less!
But I also recently realized that, even though I am getting great buys, enough of these "great bargains" can put one in the poorhouse! I wish the price realizations would go up for the simple reason it would curb my buying. I think I have become the Imelda Marcos of stamps!
Is there a 12 step program for philateholics?
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re: 2013-2015 Scott Catalog Review Discussions
bobstew617 wrote:
"I noticed that Scott is only posting MNH values for certain classic Hong Kong stamps in the Specialized. (I am sure there are other countries this is happening as well.) They have done the same thing to #167. I really don't like that they have done this--I do not plan on obtaining a Specialized catalog anytime soon."
Bob, out of curiosity, what are 'certain classic Hong Kong stamps' as far as Scott is concerned? I ask because across the water here, we use S.G.
Gibbons, as far as I know, only states that stamps from QV, EVII, GV are priced as mint hinged; and MNH copies command a higher price than listed.
Does Scott indicate which of the issues are priced for MNH in the specialised?
Or do they just make a general comment in the footnotes?
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re: 2013-2015 Scott Catalog Review Discussions
One example is Scott 167, which is a revenue stamp that was used postally. Scott used to show a MNH for this stamp in the regular G-I catalog, but now that value is only in the Specialized. I cannot speak for others off the top of my head, but that is a stamp I have pursued for several years (in vain for the right price). BOB
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re: 2013-2015 Scott Catalog Review Discussions
PLEASE!! Use this thread for comments on the catalog review.
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re: 2013-2015 Scott Catalog Review Discussions
Amazing information, Michael! You must be incredibly organized - impressive!
Wouldn't it be fascinating to compare the price shifts in Scott's listings with Gibbons, Michel and others? Has anyone ever seen something like that published elsewhere?
Which reminds me, as huge as stamp collecting is becoming in China, is there a Chinese catalog for the world? What catalogs are most popular in China? I've read that the Chinese are fond of early British material, so my guess would be they are using Gibbons.
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03:03:58pm
re: 2013-2015 Scott Catalog Review Discussions
I have used Yang's catalogues for Hong Kong, Macau, and China (separate books). They also publish a brochure that shows the correspondence of Yang and Gibbons numbers.
Peter
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03:42:53pm
re: 2013-2015 Scott Catalog Review Discussions
"Hong Kong: +2.5%
Victoria and Edward issues were up; the Georges were mixed; "
Yay!
"The first two postage due sets dropped as did occupation issues."
Doh!
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re: 2013-2015 Scott Catalog Review Discussions
I thought you would like that news. My most valuable Vickie did drop a bit however. It was the only one that did drop.
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re: 2013-2015 Scott Catalog Review Discussions
Regarding Hong Kong:
""The first two postage due sets dropped as did occupation issues.""
I'm unsure what was meant by "occupation issue(S)". Were you referring to the Japanese occupation issue (singular) ?
Did the China overprints fall into this Scott review of Hong Kong?
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re: 2013-2015 Scott Catalog Review Discussions
I use "issues" synonymous with "stamps". Scott only lists three surcharged Japanese stamps used during the Japanese occupation in 1945.
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Getting in more updates now. I wonder why...
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re: 2013-2015 Scott Catalog Review Discussions
Very interesting about Iceland after 1970. I am not surprised as I thought many items were overvalued, especially in used condition as I seem to gather multiples of them.
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re: 2013-2015 Scott Catalog Review Discussions
I have mostly MNH from Iceland. It was sad to see even the newest issues fall, but then Iceland has had a major financial crisis too.
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re: 2013-2015 Scott Catalog Review Discussions
Scott said that they did a complete review of Israel resulting in some 1350 changes. Scott isn't joking when they said that most of the changes were decreases. Values prior to 1995 are hitting rock bottom (meaning 25 cent minimum). It's a good time to start an Israel collection, or to fill up empty spaces.
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re: 2013-2015 Scott Catalog Review Discussions
Volume 3 is now complete. The review for Italy is very thorough. The value changes were so varied that I decided to list out the major time periods and back-of-book areas that saw the changes.
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04:22:19pm
re: 2013-2015 Scott Catalog Review Discussions
SCOTT catalog and Cuba stamps:
Does any one know when did SCOTT catalog begin to include all the stamps from Cuba in their editions?
I tried to "google" this question and came with absolutely no answer. However, a lot of discussion on the embargo, problems with selling Cuban stamps on eBay, and the PayPal problems...
Your expert opinion is appreciated.
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re: 2013-2015 Scott Catalog Review Discussions
With about 1/3 of Volume 4 under my belt (I guess I need to do some exercise to get rid of the bulkiness), it seems that Volume 4 has been the most dynamic thus far (at least for the J and K countries).
The market for Korea appears to be very strong. It is not often one sees used values increase with as much veracity as unused.
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re: 2013-2015 Scott Catalog Review Discussions
Volume 4 is now completed.
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re: 2013-2015 Scott Catalog Review Discussions
Volume 4 started out with much promise, especially after Korea. Alas, it fizzled out, and actually, by volume, showed the lowest overall increase in value from the previous volumes. Here's a recap (also can be seen at the top of the High-Level Summary thread):
United States: +2.3%
Volume 1: +6.1% (excludes United States)
Volume 2: +4.0%
Volume 3: +8.7%
Volume 4: +3.0%
Now we shall find out how Volume 5 fared.
Just a note that I do not go back and update value changes from the US Specialized and the Classic catalogs.
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re: 2013-2015 Scott Catalog Review Discussions
Through four volumes, using 10% as the qualifier, here are the biggest gainers:
Greece: +63.1%
Hatay: +35.8%
Korea: +24.2%
Korea Democratic People's Republic: +23.7%
Karelia: +20.7%
Egypt: +19.7%
Great Britain: +16.7%
Ionian Islands: +15.0%
French Congo: +14.7%
Italian Colonies: +12.5%
Italian East Africa: +11.7%
Allenstein: +11.5%
Ajman: +11.2%
Here are the biggest losers:
Belarus: -10.6%
German New Guinea: -10.7%
Cocos Islands: -11.3%
Guyana: -11.5%
Israel: -11.6%
Mongolia: -14.0%
Christmas Island: -18.6%
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re: 2013-2015 Scott Catalog Review Discussions
One thing that is hard to understand is when Scott does an extensive revision to values, like with New Zealand, changes in values both positive and negative are prevalent throughout the postage area. Then, when you get to the back-of-the-book, the changes suddenly stop. Hard to believe that there would be that many changes in the postage area, but not the BOB.
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re: 2013-2015 Scott Catalog Review Discussions
Damn! Just when I am starting my fine used Republic of Hatay. +35.8%
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06:31:23am
re: 2013-2015 Scott Catalog Review Discussions
Michael, it appears up to this point that 19th Century stamps generally increased in value, correct?
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re: 2013-2015 Scott Catalog Review Discussions
For British material, you could make that generalization. Victoria era has had increases, but there have been a few decreases as well. The Kings have seen both increases and decreases (probably a slightly higher percentage of increases), while Elizabeth era stamp were down or had little change. That's in general, and each British-area country has had its own nuances as I'm a little more than 2/3 through the project.
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re: 2013-2015 Scott Catalog Review Discussions
North West Pacific Islands: -39.1%
News like that, Michael, makes me NERVOUS about PAPUA NEW GUINEA. Most of the Pacific area has seemed to take a nosedive, so it will be interesting to see what happens to one of my favorite collecting areas (especially after I just picked up a nice MNH copy of PNG Scott 136 on another site. ) BOB
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re: 2013-2015 Scott Catalog Review Discussions
Well, Bob, you should have your answer soon as Papua New Guinea is not that far alphabetically from Pakistan (the next country on the list).
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re: 2013-2015 Scott Catalog Review Discussions
It was not a good day for the latest batch of updates. Red was mostly the color of the day.
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re: 2013-2015 Scott Catalog Review Discussions
So I got my answer re PNG. Expected, but not happy about it.
Oh well.
(Next country I am looking forward to seeing is SAAR.)
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Silence in the face of adversity is the father of complicity and collusion, the first cousins of conspiracy..
01 Dec 2014
12:41:13am
re: 2013-2015 Scott Catalog Review Discussions
" .... Why would someone make those comments? What you do and share should not matter to others. ...."
I agree and add, how is it any of their business what you do within the hobby ???
Next I think someone will tell me I shouldn't soak the gum from mint stamps before I hinge them from the face side .
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08:50:05am
re: 2013-2015 Scott Catalog Review Discussions
"Next I think someone will tell me I shouldn't soak the gum from mint stamps before I hinge them from the face side."
That's AFTER you write an incorrect CV on it first, right?
Michael, I am anxious awaiting your
Peter
Correction: I know there were no RSA Victoria stamps; I meant the British protectorates and colonies that later made up South Africa, of course (e.g., Transvaal, Natal).
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re: 2013-2015 Scott Catalog Review Discussions
Okay, but I'll be doing Peru next, so it'll be a little bit before I get to South Africa. Got some huge countries coming up with Poland, Romania and Russia.
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re: 2013-2015 Scott Catalog Review Discussions
Michael,
Do you remember seeing so many countries CV drop like it has this time? Just seems like many more decreases than I remember.
RUSSIA will be interesting to see-it had been hot, but the drop in the ruble against the dollar may influence things, if not this time, then the next. BOB
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re: 2013-2015 Scott Catalog Review Discussions
So far, the overall balance appears to be on the positive side. Looking at the long high level review list, it seems like approximately 20% of the countries thus far are down. I haven't counted them out, but the countries with increases and those that had no changes are a large percentage of the list. Also, the bottom line for each of the first four catalogs has been positive.
I don't remember how this broke down in 2013, but I don't see that much of a difference in overall activity. Sure some different countries were on the chopping block, but some other countries wound up with nice gains, and many remained stable.
Scott released a small teaser about Volume 1 for 2016 (remember I said in another post that the catalog values for Volume 1 are done in December, five months prior to the catalog release date). Scott is reporting that the trends for 2015 are still present for 2016, but value increases for newer material are trending smaller than in 2015, signifying a stable market for newer material, but a growing one for quality classic material. Victoria issues in the British Commonwealth were picked out as continuing to increase in value. Barbados was specifically mentioned.
I have no plans to purchase the 2016 catalogs.
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re: 2013-2015 Scott Catalog Review Discussions
I went through and edited the high level review summary to make it a little easier to read.
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06:22:33am
re: 2013-2015 Scott Catalog Review Discussions
Michael, thanks again for doing this. It's nice to have a point of reference over the years, which is how I use your listings. Although, this made me smile right now.
"Victoria issues in the British Commonwealth were picked out as continuing to increase in value."
Cheers,
Peter
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re: 2013-2015 Scott Catalog Review Discussions
You're welcome. I think one area to keep an eye on is the British "Saints". APS is having a difficult time getting sales material for these due to the demand.
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re: 2013-2015 Scott Catalog Review Discussions
Volume 5 is now completed.
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08:15:52am
re: 2013-2015 Scott Catalog Review Discussions
Wow! The Saints surely weren't marching in this time! Except, again, the Victoria issues (and KE7).
Any thoughts why those classic era stamps are maintaining or increasing in value, whereas more recent issues of higher CV are decreasing? Are people hoarding the classics; that is, they are just not coming up for auction and that influences the Scott values?
Peter
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re: 2013-2015 Scott Catalog Review Discussions
You may have mis-read my note on Saint Vincent. It is the higher valued Victoria stamps that dropped. Plenty of the lower valued Victoria stamps increased, however.
Scott has said for a couple of years now that the stamps issued during Queen Elizabeth II are very prevalent, and the market is soft for them. The stamps from the Victoria era through George VI are in the "classic" period, and that's always been popular.
Some of the QEII issues from the 1950s and early 1960s are rising in value. It is the mid 1960s through the 1980s where there is alot of material available. Newer issues from many countries have fallen due to a stronger US dollar against those currencies, as explained by Scott.
I don't know what's driving demand for stamps from the British "Saints". Collecting popularity floats about seemingly hitting on areas where catalog values are low. When the values get too high, another area spikes. Except for some high valued items in the Saints, there is alot of material that is reasonably valued. I do know that for some time now the APS Sales Division has had the "Saints" on their wanted list for material that members are looking to purchase.
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re: 2013-2015 Scott Catalog Review Discussions
Are you evaluating all issues or only the issues in your collection?
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re: 2013-2015 Scott Catalog Review Discussions
Only what I have in my collection. That alone is 300,000 stamps. If I did all of the stamps in the catalog, I think I'd still be working on Aden!
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re: 2013-2015 Scott Catalog Review Discussions
For those patiently waiting, I'll get started with Volume 6 after we get past the holidays. House guests keep me from working on my hobbies.
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re: 2013-2015 Scott Catalog Review Discussions
I have started the review for Volume 6.
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re: 2013-2015 Scott Catalog Review Discussions
The new dog picture is of my old friend Lobo, who I lost last year. We have a "member's dog" thread somewhere on the Discussion Board, and I posted other information and photos on him and my new guy, Brewster. We have alot of dog and cat lovers on SOR! Great friends they are, and I mean SOR members, dogs and cats.
My new e-store is on hold right now. I'm waiting for a programming upgrade from the ecrater folks that will permit flat rate shipping. That is supposed to be done sometime this month.
I won't post more about this on the boards as I think it would violate our self promotion policy (does it?). Anyone interested about this free alternative to BS/SG can always send me a PM and we can discuss it there. In any event, I don't want to discuss web stores in this thread.
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re: 2013-2015 Scott Catalog Review Discussions
A rather lackluster start to Volume 6.
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re: 2013-2015 Scott Catalog Review Discussions
As you are now in the final volume, Michael, I decided to take a look again at the thread that had your 2011-2013 comparisons. Interesting what has happened to some countries in just a couple of years time. It was interesting to see that Korea is one country that has stayed hot. I may just make a spreadsheet doing a side by side comparison once you are done with this year--I love geeky things like that--it's the accountant in me.
On the other side, one of my problems with having a 2012 set of catalogues as opposed to upgrading is when there are significant drops in CV for a country such as Ireland. I was recently trading with another collector initially using my 2012 values, but for the stamps I was sending, many had dropped substantially in value between then and 2015. For certain countries I collect, I think I am going to start buying just those pages if I know if the market is volatile, esp. if I am going to trade on an SCV basis.
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re: 2013-2015 Scott Catalog Review Discussions
Sounds like a good way to use the data, and to determine if one wants to purchase the catalogs or just certain country pages.
I put out the information that I find as an extension of the work I do on my collection. Anyone should feel free to use the data as they want for their own collecting needs.
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re: 2013-2015 Scott Catalog Review Discussions
I am coming around to the home stretch with 1/2 of volume 6 completed.
I was surprised by two countries in the last group that I reviewed.
I was expecting more downward changes in Switzerland, but the changes were all relegated to the early issues, particularly 19th Century. The increases in stamps issued in the early 20th century offset some of the losses in the 19th Century.
I purchased a box lot of an almost complete collection of Swaziland last year. As I was placing the stamps in my album, I noticed the differences in the values on the packets and what I was seeing in the 2015 catalog. The difference was showing a negative net from what the packets showed and what the 2015 catalog values were. I was expecting an overall decrease in value for the country. That wasn't to be. With the healthy increase in stamp values for Swaziland in the 2015 catalog, compared to the 2013 catalog, I have no idea where those stamp values in the box lot came from.
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re: 2013-2015 Scott Catalog Review Discussions
Interesting to see what happened with Switzerland. I have only a handful of 19th century stamps, so my net change may be less in my case--we'll see whenever I get to that.
Like you, I was actually expecting a larger decrease.
Thanks, Michael, for your detailed review. I appreciate it. BOB
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re: 2013-2015 Scott Catalog Review Discussions
Bob, let us know how your 19th century Swiss stamps did. Would be an interesting comparison.
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re: 2013-2015 Scott Catalog Review Discussions
I will do that--probably worth it to get those pages. I had more 19th century stamps than I expected (I'm in the midst of doing a new inventory of stamps right now).
In the meantime, I was surprised the Thailand had no changes at all--that was a HOT area for a while. BOB
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re: 2013-2015 Scott Catalog Review Discussions
They've had some political turmoil. Probably disrupted their currency.
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re: 2013-2015 Scott Catalog Review Discussions
The Valentines Day list of updates starts out in the red. Wasn't that nice to celebrate the day? If you like Vickies, she sent a kiss to you from Trinidad. Finally, if you're a collector of Italian colonies, then you'll fall in love with Tripolitania.
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07:26:42am
re: 2013-2015 Scott Catalog Review Discussions
I've been good to Vickie and it seems she, in turn, has graced me with continue good value over the years.
Michael, isn't it time to start the 2016 review? (kidding!)
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re: 2013-2015 Scott Catalog Review Discussions
You're not that far off. The 2016 Scott catalogs start coming out in April. Volume 1 for 2016 is the first to be released, and will have valuations based in December 2014.
When it comes to catalogs, we've had many discussions here about the validity of the published catalog values. The catalogs are great to help people identify their stamps and keep their collections in order, but the pricing data is like old news and just historical information. The catalogs will give one a vague "idea" of the worth of their collections, but will never give an exact true market value. If catalogs gave the true value, then we would all buy stamps at the published catalog value of a stamp without any hesitation. How many of us truly buy stamps at full catalog all the time, or even some of the time?
Just for the record, due to the enormous cost of the catalogs, I will not be buying the 2016 catalogs. I don't think that market forces are going to cause that much of a change in values. Scott might hitch a ride to the stronger dollar, and lower values due to that. In 2017 the dollar might be weaker, and then the values will go back up to where they were. I don't want to get caught in that monetary cycle by purchasing the catalogs every year just to keep up with currency exchange rates. It doesn't really change the market values of stamps all that much.
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re: 2013-2015 Scott Catalog Review Discussions
Well, it took a while (seems to take longer each time I do this), but it's now completed. Take from it as you will. It may or not reflect on your own collection, and your results may be significantly different from mine depending on what you collect, but it should give you some insight as to what the values overall are doing.
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re: 2013-2015 Scott Catalog Review Discussions
Thnak you again, Michael, for all your hard work on this. I can only imagine how time consuming it is for you, my collection is much smaller than yours, and I am working on the updates for my 19th-early 20th century Swiss and also for Ireland. I will post those in a separate thread when I am done.
Michael, for your Ireland, is most of your collection mint/MNH or used? Right now I am seeing a much greater drop in the MNH issues than the used (in my case from 2012 to 2015).
It goes to show that the change for each person may be dfifferent according to what they collect and also the span between catalogs.
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re: 2013-2015 Scott Catalog Review Discussions
My Ireland is mostly MNH.
Remember that in the 2013 catalogs, Ireland took the big drop compared to the 2012 catalogs. So, you missed the initial drop. If I recall, in your post commenting on the big drops back then, you were crying in your Guinness!
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re: 2013-2015 Scott Catalog Review Discussions
Yes, I was, I am seeing the effects now--yikes!
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Wow. It is fascinating to track all the value changes (or lack thereof).
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